The two wins last night bumped my portfolio up $50. Both my portfolio and the S&P 500 were at $921 when I started last week.
Portfolio: $993 (7.8% return)
S&P 500: $927 (0.7% return)
Today's Games
Boston (-130) @ Baltimore (+110)
Minnesota (-140) @ Kansas City (+130)
San Francisco (+190) @ St. Louis (-200)
The first game has John Smoltz matched up against Rich Hill. Smoltz has had one start this year after coming back from injury are didn’t fare too well. He lasted 5 innings, giving up 5 earned runs on 7 hits against the lowly Nationals. 4 of those runs were given up in the first inning, and he really settled down after that. He did manage to strikeout 5 and only walk 1, proving that he still should have good stuff with good control. He was probably just tight and nervous in his first start for the Red Sox, his first game with a team other than the Braves in 20 years. Most of the young Orioles have never seen him before. Rich Hill is off to 3-2 start but with a bad 6.03 ERA. Hill has good stuff and can rack up strikeouts, 8.2 K/9, but can’t seem to control it, 5.79 BB/9. His walk rate is above his career average of 3.86 BB/9, but he’s not showing any signs of improving on that number. This is probably due to injury. The Red Sox offense should knock Hill out by the 6th inning as they have a patient lineup that doesn’t strikeout too much. At -130 the line is just enough to make me like the Red Sox and the veteran Smoltz.
The second game has Scott Baker going up against Brain Bannister. Baker is 5-6 with a 5.17 ERA, but is one of the most underrated pitchers in the game. He’s strikeout rate and walk rate are the best in his career, and his hit rate is normal. His 4.5 K/BB rate is one of the best in the majors. The long ball is what has been hurting him, mainly earlier in the season. He has already given up 17 homeruns in 87 innings compared to 20 in 172 innings last year, and he’s actually giving up fewer fly balls this year. Well in his last 4 starts he is 2-0 with a 3.62 ERA while only allowing 2 homeruns, so he seems to have that under control. And playing the Royals, he should not be too worried about giving up homeruns. Brian Bannister is about as average as they come with a 5-5 record and a 4.17 ERA. He doesn’t strikeout many, 5.45 K/9, doesn’t walk many, 2.9 BB/9, and is not a heavy ground ball pitcher. The better than average Twins offense should score a few off him, and that should be enough for Baker who has a chance to throw a gem tonight.
One more game I like today. Randy Johnson is going up against Chris Carpenter. Johnson is pitching really well as of late, going 4-1 with a 2.57 ERA in his last 7 starts. He still has some left in the tank as his strikeout rate, walk rate, and hit rate all are normal. The Giants have also been playing well as of late. You can see my analysis on Carpenter from 6/25. I still feel the same way about him. His hit rate is way too low and his strikeout rate is not where it used to be. He should not be putting up a 1.78 ERA. His control is still there, as his walk rate is the best of his career, but that shouldn’t matter too much as the Giants swing at everything. The Cardinals offense has gone cold the last couple games, so taking the Giants is a good value pick here.
Bets
$26 BOS -130
$28 MIN -140
$10 SF +190
Tuesday, June 30, 2009
Monday, June 29, 2009
KC Barely Scores Enough
The Royals ended up winning 3-2, with Greinke pitching well and Morton struggling. A rain delay caused Greinke to only last 6 1/3 innings. Otherwise, he probably would have went the distance. I gained a solid $30.
Portfolio: $943 (2.4% return)
S&P 500: $919 (-0.2% return)
Today's Games
San Francisco (-130) @ St. Louis (+110)
Chicago Cubs (-110) @ Pittsburgh (-110)
Tim Lincecum is matched up against Brad Thompson. I'm not sure why the Giants are not favored by more, since they have a better record and have one of the best pitchers in baseball going up against an average pitcher at best. Lincecum is dominant, averaging 10.63 K/9 while only allowing 2.4 BB/9. Mix that in with the fact that he gets more ground ball than fly ball outs, which means he is less likely to give up extra base hits. In his last 3 starts he's thrown 26 innings while striking out 29 and only walking 3. He's in peak form. Thompson is a heavy ground ball pitcher who pitches to contact having only struck out 13 batters in 42 innings, and none in his last 12. He has good control in only walking 2.36 batters per 9, so the free swinging Giants probably won't draw a single walk off him. He's giving up the major league average of about a hit per inning, but that shouldn't last as that is about a hit per inning below his career average. I think the Giants are a no brainer here, and I think the line isn't more in their favor because of the DeRosa trade. A trade usually brings up the moral of a team and they play better, but I don't think that will be the case tonight since they are going up against Lincecum. Should be interesting to see the Pujols vs. Lincecum battles. I'm going to bet the max I can (5%).
In the second game, Rich Harden is matched up against Zach Duke. Harden has nasty stuff with a K/9 rate of 10, but walks a lot of batters with a 4.5 BB/9 rate. He also throws a lot of pitches which leads to a lot of early exits. His strikeout rate is in line with his career average but the reason why he has a 4-4 record with a 4.95 ERA is due to his walk rate being up along with his hit rate. Harden’s walk rate is up 0.60 BB/9 and his hit rate of 8.10 per 9 is almost 1 hit per inning more than his career average. This may be due to the fact that he is no longer a ground ball pitcher. Wrigley is not a good place for fly ball pitchers and this shows with a home ERA of 6.31 compared to a road ERA of 2.96. Good thing this game is at PNC. Zach Duke on the other hand is a strike throwing ground ball pitcher who won’t miss a lot of bats. Duke is having a good year with an 8-5 record and a 3.09 ERA, but that shouldn’t last. His strikeout rate and walk rate are normal, but his hit rate is 8.57 per 9 compared to his 10.65 per 9 career average. This is odd given the fact that his groundball rate is the lowest of his career. Also, a move to the mean has already started as he has given up 29 hits in his last 26 innings. The thing that Duke has going for him is that he is a lefty, but with the Cubs right handed heavy lineup I think they are in line to score a few runs tonight.
Bets
$39 SF -130
$22 CHC -110
Portfolio: $943 (2.4% return)
S&P 500: $919 (-0.2% return)
Today's Games
San Francisco (-130) @ St. Louis (+110)
Chicago Cubs (-110) @ Pittsburgh (-110)
Tim Lincecum is matched up against Brad Thompson. I'm not sure why the Giants are not favored by more, since they have a better record and have one of the best pitchers in baseball going up against an average pitcher at best. Lincecum is dominant, averaging 10.63 K/9 while only allowing 2.4 BB/9. Mix that in with the fact that he gets more ground ball than fly ball outs, which means he is less likely to give up extra base hits. In his last 3 starts he's thrown 26 innings while striking out 29 and only walking 3. He's in peak form. Thompson is a heavy ground ball pitcher who pitches to contact having only struck out 13 batters in 42 innings, and none in his last 12. He has good control in only walking 2.36 batters per 9, so the free swinging Giants probably won't draw a single walk off him. He's giving up the major league average of about a hit per inning, but that shouldn't last as that is about a hit per inning below his career average. I think the Giants are a no brainer here, and I think the line isn't more in their favor because of the DeRosa trade. A trade usually brings up the moral of a team and they play better, but I don't think that will be the case tonight since they are going up against Lincecum. Should be interesting to see the Pujols vs. Lincecum battles. I'm going to bet the max I can (5%).
In the second game, Rich Harden is matched up against Zach Duke. Harden has nasty stuff with a K/9 rate of 10, but walks a lot of batters with a 4.5 BB/9 rate. He also throws a lot of pitches which leads to a lot of early exits. His strikeout rate is in line with his career average but the reason why he has a 4-4 record with a 4.95 ERA is due to his walk rate being up along with his hit rate. Harden’s walk rate is up 0.60 BB/9 and his hit rate of 8.10 per 9 is almost 1 hit per inning more than his career average. This may be due to the fact that he is no longer a ground ball pitcher. Wrigley is not a good place for fly ball pitchers and this shows with a home ERA of 6.31 compared to a road ERA of 2.96. Good thing this game is at PNC. Zach Duke on the other hand is a strike throwing ground ball pitcher who won’t miss a lot of bats. Duke is having a good year with an 8-5 record and a 3.09 ERA, but that shouldn’t last. His strikeout rate and walk rate are normal, but his hit rate is 8.57 per 9 compared to his 10.65 per 9 career average. This is odd given the fact that his groundball rate is the lowest of his career. Also, a move to the mean has already started as he has given up 29 hits in his last 26 innings. The thing that Duke has going for him is that he is a lefty, but with the Cubs right handed heavy lineup I think they are in line to score a few runs tonight.
Bets
$39 SF -130
$22 CHC -110
Sunday, June 28, 2009
Easy Game Today
No bets last night. Here's the financial situation.
Portfolio: $913 (-0.9% return)
S&P 500: $ 919 (-0.2% return)
Today's Games
Kansas City (-150) @ Pittsburgh (+140)
Royals ace Zack Greinke is going up against Charlie Morton, who had his start on Friday pushed back due to injury. Greinke is having a CY Young season going 9-3 with a 1.90 ERA with 2 complete game shutouts. He won his last start against Houston by throwing 8 innings of shutout ball after hitting a rough patch in his previous 4 starts where he allowed more than 3 earned runs each game, losing two of those. His last start tells me he's found his stuff again, mostly notably his control. Greinke has only allowed 3 HR's in 109 innings this year, and Pittsburgh really has no power. Greinke's walk rate per 9 innings is 1.49, and Pittsburgh's young hitters are not too patient at the plate. What this tells me is that Pittsburgh most likely will not draw walks or hit home runs with Greinke on the mound. I don't know too much about Charlie Morton, but you can see my analysis of him from Friday's post. I really don't think it matter's how Charlie Morton throws because I doubt he will receive much run support. The main question is whether the Royals offense can score some runs for the CY Young candidate. I feel confident to bet my max limit of 5% on this game.
Bet
$45 KC -150
Portfolio: $913 (-0.9% return)
S&P 500: $ 919 (-0.2% return)
Today's Games
Kansas City (-150) @ Pittsburgh (+140)
Royals ace Zack Greinke is going up against Charlie Morton, who had his start on Friday pushed back due to injury. Greinke is having a CY Young season going 9-3 with a 1.90 ERA with 2 complete game shutouts. He won his last start against Houston by throwing 8 innings of shutout ball after hitting a rough patch in his previous 4 starts where he allowed more than 3 earned runs each game, losing two of those. His last start tells me he's found his stuff again, mostly notably his control. Greinke has only allowed 3 HR's in 109 innings this year, and Pittsburgh really has no power. Greinke's walk rate per 9 innings is 1.49, and Pittsburgh's young hitters are not too patient at the plate. What this tells me is that Pittsburgh most likely will not draw walks or hit home runs with Greinke on the mound. I don't know too much about Charlie Morton, but you can see my analysis of him from Friday's post. I really don't think it matter's how Charlie Morton throws because I doubt he will receive much run support. The main question is whether the Royals offense can score some runs for the CY Young candidate. I feel confident to bet my max limit of 5% on this game.
Bet
$45 KC -150
Saturday, June 27, 2009
Rough Night
The Royals and Giants both lost as they showed no offense, but I actually ended up only losing one game because the Kansas City game was void due to Pittsburgh changing starting pitchers. My portfolio lost $20 to fall behind the S&P 500 for the first time. Meche labored through 5 innings against a weak Pittsburgh offense so I was wrong about that. And Gallardo was dominant. By looking at the box score it seems Gallardo regained his control, but I don't think that's the case. He was consistently behind in counts and the free swinging Giants bailed him out a lot. One thing I forgot to factor in is that the Giants are last in the majors in drawing walks. If I would have seen this, I probably wouldn't have picked them. I look for the line in Gallardo's next start to be inflated, as his control still isn't there.
Portfolio: $913 (-0.9% return)
S&P 500: $919 (-0.2% return)
Today's Games
None.
Every game looks like a coin flip.
Portfolio: $913 (-0.9% return)
S&P 500: $919 (-0.2% return)
Today's Games
None.
Every game looks like a coin flip.
Friday, June 26, 2009
Santana Outduels Carpenter
The Mets won 3-2 yesterday, gaining $22 for my portfolio. The S&P 500 also gained 20, so I'm just staying ahead of pace. It was a pitcher's duel yesterday with Santana getting out of a couple jams and Carpenter having one bad inning.
Portfolio: 933 (1.3% return)
S&P 500: 920 (-0.1% return)
Today's Games
Kansas City (-110) @ Pittsburgh (-110)
San Francisco (+130) @ Milwaukee (-150)
There are some pretty good pitching matchups today, and a handful of games I like, but I've narrowed it down to my two top picks. The first game has Gil Meche going up agianst Charlie Morton. Meche got rocked his last start after coming off a complete game shutout, and was really solid in his previous 6 starts, allowing no more than 2 ER in each of those starts. Meche is a solid veteran who should bounce back tonight against a Pirates team who is sending out rookie Charlie Morton. Morton is nothing special as his ERA last year was 6.19 in 74 innings and has only had one good minor league season (2008). At -110, I think Kansas City is hard to pass up. Losing the DH should be no big deal as KC can't hit anyway, but should score a few runs off the rookie Morton.
The second game has Matt Cain matched up against Yovani Gallardo. Both have been pitching really well this year and both teams have been playing solid. Cain is off to a 9-1 start with a 2.28 ERA and his skill set is basically the same this year as it was the last two years when he went a combined 15-30. His K/9 rate, BB/9, and H/9 are almost indentical. His strand rate (leading to lower ERA) is a little better than years past and he's getting more (normal) run support. Those are both kind of luck stats, but he was due for a change in luck after suffering through some of the worst luck the last two years. Gallardo has gotten off to a good start, going 7-4 with a 3.00 ERA. He is a dominant strikeout pitcher, avergaing 9.3 K/9, but has had a control problem as of late, averaging 6.1 BB/9 in his last 4 starts. Gallardo's hit rate is also a little depressed compared to his brief history and the major league average, and should correct. The lack of control bodes well for the Giants and Cain. Look for Gallardo to last no more than 6 innings tonight, and Cain to pitch solid.
There are a couple more games that I might add later in the day as I look at the games more.
Bets
$22 KC -110
$20 SF +130
Portfolio: 933 (1.3% return)
S&P 500: 920 (-0.1% return)
Today's Games
Kansas City (-110) @ Pittsburgh (-110)
San Francisco (+130) @ Milwaukee (-150)
There are some pretty good pitching matchups today, and a handful of games I like, but I've narrowed it down to my two top picks. The first game has Gil Meche going up agianst Charlie Morton. Meche got rocked his last start after coming off a complete game shutout, and was really solid in his previous 6 starts, allowing no more than 2 ER in each of those starts. Meche is a solid veteran who should bounce back tonight against a Pirates team who is sending out rookie Charlie Morton. Morton is nothing special as his ERA last year was 6.19 in 74 innings and has only had one good minor league season (2008). At -110, I think Kansas City is hard to pass up. Losing the DH should be no big deal as KC can't hit anyway, but should score a few runs off the rookie Morton.
The second game has Matt Cain matched up against Yovani Gallardo. Both have been pitching really well this year and both teams have been playing solid. Cain is off to a 9-1 start with a 2.28 ERA and his skill set is basically the same this year as it was the last two years when he went a combined 15-30. His K/9 rate, BB/9, and H/9 are almost indentical. His strand rate (leading to lower ERA) is a little better than years past and he's getting more (normal) run support. Those are both kind of luck stats, but he was due for a change in luck after suffering through some of the worst luck the last two years. Gallardo has gotten off to a good start, going 7-4 with a 3.00 ERA. He is a dominant strikeout pitcher, avergaing 9.3 K/9, but has had a control problem as of late, averaging 6.1 BB/9 in his last 4 starts. Gallardo's hit rate is also a little depressed compared to his brief history and the major league average, and should correct. The lack of control bodes well for the Giants and Cain. Look for Gallardo to last no more than 6 innings tonight, and Cain to pitch solid.
There are a couple more games that I might add later in the day as I look at the games more.
Bets
$22 KC -110
$20 SF +130
Thursday, June 25, 2009
Bad Start
Wow, a poor 0-2 yesterday to bring my portfolio down $54. Although both games were losses, I still think they were solid plays. The Phillies/Rays game was a pitching duel up until the bottom of the 8th when the Phillies bullpen let up 5 runs to blow it open. And Dan Haren once again is the tough luck loser in a 2-1 game. It's hard to see his luck not turning around soon. He's pitching great.
I'm going to make a change to my portfolio with the beginning value being 921, the same as the S&P 500 when I started earlier this week, so it will be easier to compare the two. Also, I might post my picks, if there are any, all the way up until 7:00 pm EST.
Portfolio: 911 (-1.1% return)
S&P 500: 901 (-2.2% return)
Todays Game
St. Louis (-130) @ NY Mets (+110)
Chris Carpenter is matched up against Johan Santana in what should be a piching duel. I like Santana as the underdog at home and should not have to do any analysis, but I'll give you some. After a dip in strikeout rate in 2008, Santana has regained his level from the previous 5 years. His 2008 rate was 7.91 K/9 and this year it's at 9.77 K/9. His walk rate has continued a steady 5 year climb, but it's still pretty good at 2.72 BB/9. Carpenter has been pitching great this year, but he still hasn't found his skills from 2006, his last healthy season. His K/9 rate is 6.6 compared to 7.6 from 2004-2006. He has kept is pinpoint control, but the main factor to his great start after missing 2 seasons is his low hit rate. He's giving up 36% less hits per 9 than he did in 2004-2006. His low hit rate is unsustainable and will start to tick up.
Bets
20 NYM +110
I'm going to make a change to my portfolio with the beginning value being 921, the same as the S&P 500 when I started earlier this week, so it will be easier to compare the two. Also, I might post my picks, if there are any, all the way up until 7:00 pm EST.
Portfolio: 911 (-1.1% return)
S&P 500: 901 (-2.2% return)
Todays Game
St. Louis (-130) @ NY Mets (+110)
Chris Carpenter is matched up against Johan Santana in what should be a piching duel. I like Santana as the underdog at home and should not have to do any analysis, but I'll give you some. After a dip in strikeout rate in 2008, Santana has regained his level from the previous 5 years. His 2008 rate was 7.91 K/9 and this year it's at 9.77 K/9. His walk rate has continued a steady 5 year climb, but it's still pretty good at 2.72 BB/9. Carpenter has been pitching great this year, but he still hasn't found his skills from 2006, his last healthy season. His K/9 rate is 6.6 compared to 7.6 from 2004-2006. He has kept is pinpoint control, but the main factor to his great start after missing 2 seasons is his low hit rate. He's giving up 36% less hits per 9 than he did in 2004-2006. His low hit rate is unsustainable and will start to tick up.
Bets
20 NYM +110
Wednesday, June 24, 2009
Broke Even
Ended up breaking even with the Giants winning and the Rockies losing.
Betting: $965 (4.8% return)
S&P 500: 895 (-2.8% return)
Today's Picks
Philly (+150) @ TB (-170)
Texas (+150) @ ARI (-170)
In the first game Joe Blanton is matched up against Matt Garza. Although Garza has an ERA about 1.5 points lower than Blanton, I think they are having similar years. Both K/BB ratios are about the same, but Blanton is giving up more hits than normal while the opposite is true of Garza. Both will eventually regress to the mean. Philly just came off a big win after being in a big slump and I think they will keep it going tonight. At +150, with two equal pitchers, I think it's a solid play.
The second game has Vicente Padilla going up against Dan Haren. Padilla is having his worst season in terms of K/9 and BB/9 which tells me his skills are deterierating. Haren on the other hand is probably having the best season out of any pitcher, it's just that he hasn't received any run support. With the game being played in the National League the Rangers will have one less hitter. With the Rangers lineup being potent and Haren being dominant, I think Haren will be up to the challenge. Great pitching beats good hitting. Padilla is a fastball pitcher so the Diamonbacks should score more than 2-3 runs. I usually don't like to pick favorite's this heavy, but at -170 I think it's a great deal. The line should probably be -200 with the way Haren is throwing.
Bets
$20 PHI +150
$34 ARI -170
Betting: $965 (4.8% return)
S&P 500: 895 (-2.8% return)
Today's Picks
Philly (+150) @ TB (-170)
Texas (+150) @ ARI (-170)
In the first game Joe Blanton is matched up against Matt Garza. Although Garza has an ERA about 1.5 points lower than Blanton, I think they are having similar years. Both K/BB ratios are about the same, but Blanton is giving up more hits than normal while the opposite is true of Garza. Both will eventually regress to the mean. Philly just came off a big win after being in a big slump and I think they will keep it going tonight. At +150, with two equal pitchers, I think it's a solid play.
The second game has Vicente Padilla going up against Dan Haren. Padilla is having his worst season in terms of K/9 and BB/9 which tells me his skills are deterierating. Haren on the other hand is probably having the best season out of any pitcher, it's just that he hasn't received any run support. With the game being played in the National League the Rangers will have one less hitter. With the Rangers lineup being potent and Haren being dominant, I think Haren will be up to the challenge. Great pitching beats good hitting. Padilla is a fastball pitcher so the Diamonbacks should score more than 2-3 runs. I usually don't like to pick favorite's this heavy, but at -170 I think it's a great deal. The line should probably be -200 with the way Haren is throwing.
Bets
$20 PHI +150
$34 ARI -170
Tuesday, June 23, 2009
First Win
That was an easy $44 last night, with the Rockies easily winning 11-1. Here's the updated financial situation. Remember, this is not real money, just a simulation to see how much I can outgain the stock market.
Betting: $965 (4.8% return)
S&P 500: 893 (-3% return)
Today's Picks
Two late game's look good tonight, San Francisco (-130) @ Oakland (+110) and Colorado (+100) @ LA Angels (-120).
Tim Lincecum is going up against the rookie Vin Mazzaro for the second time this year. The Giants won with Lincecum throwing a complete game shutout a couple weeks ago. Lincecum is the best pitcher in all of baseball in my opinion, with 3 plus pitches he can throw at any time. He's a high strikeout pitcher that gets a good amount of goundballs, pretty rare. Mazzaro is a good prospect that has shown he is hard to hit. Not a big strikeout pitcher, but has decent control. This is right up Lincecum's alley with Oakland being a poor hitting team and their ballpark being a pitcher's park. The Giants should win a low scoring affair tonight with Lincecum possibly throwing another gem.
Ubaldo Jimenez is matched up against another rookie Sean O'Sullivan in the second game. Jimenez is a heavy ground ball pitcher that throws hard. He's not really a strikeout pitcher, but if his stuff is good, he can miss some bats. O'Sullivan is a decent prospect that has pretty good control for a youngster. Not a big strikeout pitcher, but has shown good K/BB ratio's in the past. He has struggled in the minors this year going 6-4 with a 5.88 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP while splitting time in AA and AAA. The Rockies are on fire lately and should jump on the righty O'Sullivan early with their lefty dominant lineup.
I like the veterans, if you can call Lincecum and Jimenez veterans, to previal against the good prospects in both games. I like the Rockies hitting and the Athletics lack of hitting.
Bets
$39 SF -130
$30 COL +100
Betting: $965 (4.8% return)
S&P 500: 893 (-3% return)
Today's Picks
Two late game's look good tonight, San Francisco (-130) @ Oakland (+110) and Colorado (+100) @ LA Angels (-120).
Tim Lincecum is going up against the rookie Vin Mazzaro for the second time this year. The Giants won with Lincecum throwing a complete game shutout a couple weeks ago. Lincecum is the best pitcher in all of baseball in my opinion, with 3 plus pitches he can throw at any time. He's a high strikeout pitcher that gets a good amount of goundballs, pretty rare. Mazzaro is a good prospect that has shown he is hard to hit. Not a big strikeout pitcher, but has decent control. This is right up Lincecum's alley with Oakland being a poor hitting team and their ballpark being a pitcher's park. The Giants should win a low scoring affair tonight with Lincecum possibly throwing another gem.
Ubaldo Jimenez is matched up against another rookie Sean O'Sullivan in the second game. Jimenez is a heavy ground ball pitcher that throws hard. He's not really a strikeout pitcher, but if his stuff is good, he can miss some bats. O'Sullivan is a decent prospect that has pretty good control for a youngster. Not a big strikeout pitcher, but has shown good K/BB ratio's in the past. He has struggled in the minors this year going 6-4 with a 5.88 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP while splitting time in AA and AAA. The Rockies are on fire lately and should jump on the righty O'Sullivan early with their lefty dominant lineup.
I like the veterans, if you can call Lincecum and Jimenez veterans, to previal against the good prospects in both games. I like the Rockies hitting and the Athletics lack of hitting.
Bets
$39 SF -130
$30 COL +100
Monday, June 22, 2009
Easy Money
A typical slow Monday due to travel, but I do like 1 game tonight. It's the Rockies (+110) @ Angels (-130). I'll use the line's off Logans, which I get from going to the 'live odds' page in the sports section of the USA Today online. If the line is not an even betting number, I'll round to the nearest 10 so I don't have to deal with change.
I mainly look at the pitching matchup, but also condsider how the team has been playing of late. Aaron Cook looks realy good going up against Matt Palmer, and the Rockies have been playing lights out as of late winning 16 out of 17. Aaron Cook got off to a really bad start but has been pitching good as of late. The Rockies ace is a big time ground ball pitcher who gave up an usually high amount of home runs early in the season. Cook's not a strikeout pitcher, but has been striking out batter's at the highest rate in his career. He's also been walking batter's at the highest rate in the last 5 years, but his 5 year WHIP is unaffected due to a lower hit rate. I'm not too worried about the walks since they came early on in the season when he struggled. In his last 4 starts he has only walked 4 compared to 16 strikeouts, not bad at all.
Matt Palmer on the other hand has gotten off to a nice 6-0 start with a 4.13 ERA. If you look further into how he's doing it, it's fool's gold. Palmer is not a strikeout pitcher, not a heavy ground ball pitcher, not a control freak, and not left handed. What he's doing though is allowing very few hits, which is mostly luck and will eventually turn around.
The Bet
$40 COL +110
I mainly look at the pitching matchup, but also condsider how the team has been playing of late. Aaron Cook looks realy good going up against Matt Palmer, and the Rockies have been playing lights out as of late winning 16 out of 17. Aaron Cook got off to a really bad start but has been pitching good as of late. The Rockies ace is a big time ground ball pitcher who gave up an usually high amount of home runs early in the season. Cook's not a strikeout pitcher, but has been striking out batter's at the highest rate in his career. He's also been walking batter's at the highest rate in the last 5 years, but his 5 year WHIP is unaffected due to a lower hit rate. I'm not too worried about the walks since they came early on in the season when he struggled. In his last 4 starts he has only walked 4 compared to 16 strikeouts, not bad at all.
Matt Palmer on the other hand has gotten off to a nice 6-0 start with a 4.13 ERA. If you look further into how he's doing it, it's fool's gold. Palmer is not a strikeout pitcher, not a heavy ground ball pitcher, not a control freak, and not left handed. What he's doing though is allowing very few hits, which is mostly luck and will eventually turn around.
The Bet
$40 COL +110
Sunday, June 21, 2009
My sports gambling blog
I'm bored, just finished up an 0-3 day, and it just hit me I have to go to work tomorrow. My job is pretty laid back. I basically sit in a cube for 8 hours a day, and have been thinking about starting a sports gambling blog for quite some time to see if I can help people out. I love sports and love to gamble. I really only like to gamble on things that I believe I have an advantage on, like sports and poker. The odds are stacked against you in all other types of gambling. If I see a bet I like, I'll let you know. I'll start an imaginary portfolio at $921, which is equal to the S&P 500, and track its performance against the S&P 500. I'll usually bet around 2% of my portfolio and will never exceed 5%.
Portfolio as of 6/21/09:
Betting: $921 (0% return)
S&P 500: 921 (0% return)
Portfolio as of 6/21/09:
Betting: $921 (0% return)
S&P 500: 921 (0% return)
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