No Action Yesterday

I ended up losing a little last week, but nothing too big. I have been liking favorites lately as usually teams in the race try a little harder this time of year.

Portfolio: $1039 (12.8% return)
S&P 500: $1029 (11.7% return)

Today's Games

Atlanta (+140) @ Florida (-150)

If you checked earlier I said there were no games today, but I've changed my mind. In the only game I like today Kenshin Kawakami is matched up against Josh Johnson. Kawakami has been average this year and is on the verge of losing his spot in the rotation with the return of Tim Hudson. He doesn't strike out too many and walks a little more than the average. By looking at his numbers it doesn't look like he's really good or bad at anything. His strikeouts are down lately and he has struggled away from home. Johnson is having a really good season and has liked pitching at home. He has struggled a little but lately, but that's due to giving up a few home runs, which he usually doesn't do. His K's are there and he has continued to show great control. I like the Marlins, who roughed up Kawakami a month ago.

Bets

$15 FLA -150

Phillies Get Hammered, Lose $38

You win some, you lose some. On the positive side at least I'm up $2 the last 2 days.

Portfolio: $1039 (12.8% return)
S&P 500: $1029 (11.7% return)

Today's Games

None

Solid 3-0, Up $40

I kinda got lucky with the Yankees and Cardinals pulling it out, but all of my pitching predictions were correct. Lincecum was dominant and I was hoping he'd go out there for the 9th even after throwing 127 pitches. I think pitch count is way overrated, and it's nice to see the Giants as they don't put much stock into it.

Portfolio: $1077 (16.9% return)
S&P 500: $1029 (11.7% return)

Today's Game

Atlanta (+170) @ Philadelphia (-190)

In the only game I like today Derek Lowe is matched up against Cliff Lee. You can see my analysis of Lowe from 8/23. Not much has changed and I believe his best days are behind him. Lee on the other hand is in CY Young form and has almost been unhittable since joining the Phillies. His indicators as of late are right on last years and he has upped his K rate. While Lee can't keep up his sub 1.00 ERA, he should still pitch solid enough to get the win as the Phiilies should be able to score off Lowe early and often.

Bet

$38 PHI -190

No Action Yesterday

Portfolio: $1037 (12.6% return)
S&P 500: $1031 (11.9% return)

Today’s Games

Chicago White Sox (+200) @ New York Yankees (-240)
Washington (+170) @ St. Louis (-190)
Colorado (+110) @ San Francisco (-130)

In the first game Mark Buehrle is matched up against CC Sabathia. Buehrle has struggled ever since his perfect game and has been getting hit hard lately while his K’s have dropped. Sabathia has won his last 4 starts and is in CY Young form. His pinpoint control and increased K rate are the main drivers behind that. When he can throw all three of his pitches for strikes it’s really hard to score runs off him. I look for the Yankees and CC to cruise in this one.

In the second game John Lannan is matched up against John Smoltz. Lannan has been getting absolutely tagged lately as his ERA is 12.00 over his last 3 starts, not good news facing the Cardinals. Smoltz is coming off his only decent start this year, and should have the confidence he lacked earlier in the season with the Red Sox. I’ve been saying all along that he still has some left in the tank, and if you type in “Smoltz” in the search on the top left corner of the page you can see my past analysis of him. His K and BB rates are right in line with his last 2 healthy seasons. I like the Cardinals to win easily.

In the third game Ubaldo Jimenez is matched up against Tim Lincecum for the second time in 5 days. Jimenez pitched great and Lincecum pitched below his standards and the Rockies won 4-2. Jimenez is on top of his game right now, but I find it hard to believe that Lincecum won’t be up for the challenge to get even. Lincecum has struggled with control his last 2 starts, so if he can get that fixed, which I think he will, he should be in a position to dominate. This is a true test for both starters in another huge series, and Lincecum will come out on top this time.

Bets

$24 NYY -240
$19 STL -190
$26 SF -130

No Action Yesterday

Portfolio: $1037 (12.6% return)
S&P 500: $1028 (11.6% return)

Today's Games

None

Split, Down $28

Brad Lidge’s struggles continue as he blows another game, but the Phillies should have crossed the plate more than 4 times against the Pirates. Going 1-1 and losing $28 shows the risk in betting favorites in baseball.

Portfolio: $1037 (12.6% return)
S&P 500: $1028 (11.6% return)

Today’s Games

None

No Action Yesterday

Portfolio: $1065 (15.6% return)
S&P 500: $1026 (11.4% return)

Today’s Games

Philadelphia (-190) @ Pittsburgh (+170)
Chicago White Sox (+250) @ Boston (-300)

In the first game Joe Blanton is matched up against Ross Ohlendorf. Blanton is having a solid season and has a very respectable 3.25 K/BB ratio, but he has gotten into trouble when he gives up the long ball. Good thing for him that he is facing the light hitting Pirates in a pitchers ballpark. The Phillies should score enough off the soft tossing Ohlendorf for Blanton to pick up his 9th win.

In the second game Freddy Garcia is matched up against Jon Lester. Garcia is making only his second start of the season and he was roughed up pretty good in his first one. I do not see him pitching well against the potent Red Sox offense after barely pitching much of the last 3 seasons. Lester on the other hand has been pretty much lights out as of late, going 1-0 with a 2.00 ERA over his last 4 starts while striking out 11 per 9 and only walking 2.33 per 9. This should be an easy one for the Red Sox. I generally don't like to bet on heavy favorite's like this, but this is such a lopsided match up.

Bets

$38 PHI -190
$30 BOS -300

Win One, Lose Two, Down $28

The Marlins game could have went either way while the Giants missed a few opportunities to add on when they were up 2-0. Can't win 'em all.

Portfolio: $1065 (15.6% return)
S&P 500: $1026 (11.4% return)


Today’s Games

None

Yankees Lose, Cardinals Win - Up $5

It's always good when you split and gain money.

Portfolio: $1093 (18.7% return)

S&P 500: $1026 (11.4% return)

Today's Games

Florida (+120) @ Atlanta (-130)

San Francisco (+100) @ Colorado (-110)

New York Yankees (+110) @ Boston (-120)

In the first game Ricky Nolasco is matched up against Derek Lowe. Nolasco struggled early in the year, was sent down to the minors for a few starts, and has been pretty good ever since he was called up. He was roughed up 2 starts ago, but has been dominant other than that over the last 2 months. His strikeout and walk rates are ace caliber, so it's really no surprise that he's turned it around. Lowe on the the other hand got off to a good start, but has struggled the last few months. It looks like his skills are deteriorating as his strikeouts have dropped, his walks have increased, and his ground ball rate has dropped which has led to a higher hit rate. He is 36 years old so he might never get his stuff back again. I look for the underdog Marlins with their potential dominant starter to take the rubber game of this big series.

In the second game Tim Lincecum is matched up against Ubaldo Jimenez. Lincecum is one of the best pitchers in baseball, but didn't look to impressive in his last start against the lowly Reds. Jimenez is turning into the Rockies ace and has been lights out as of late, going 3-0 with a 1.19 ERA over his last 3. His dominance should not continue as his walk rate is up and his hit rate is down. I look for Lincecum to bounce back and win the rubber game of this huge series.

In the third game CC Sabathia is going up against Josh Beckett in a rematch of the 2007 ALCS game 5. Sabathia has been in Cy Young form as of late and his indicators reflect that. Beckett was roughed up his last start and has been giving up the long ball lately, which is not good when facing the Yankees. After two uneven games, I looks for the Yankees and the red hot Sabathia to take this rubber game.

Bets

$20 FLA +120

$30 SF +100

$20 NYY +110

Giants Take Care Of Business

That was a pretty easy $32 last night as Aaron Cook's recent struggles continued. He left with a sore shoulder after only 47 pitches, so that could be part of the reason for his struggles. Sanchez on the other hand pitched normal by his standards. He was wild, struck out 8 and left after only 5 innings due to pitch count. If he can learn to throw more strikes before the seasons end and the Giants make the playoffs their pitching will be unstoppable.

Portfolio: $1088 (18.1% return)

S&P 500: $1026 (11.4% return)

For those of you not aware, when I started my blog a couple months ago the S&P 500 was at 921, so that's what my porfolio's starting value was. As you can see, I am getting a 6.7% higher return on my money than the S&P 500 since the start of my simulation.

Today's Games

New York Yankees (-150) @ Boston (+140)

St. Louis (-210) @ San Diego (+190)

In the first game I like today the hard throwing A.J. Burnett is matched up against the rookie Junichi Tazawa. Burnett is having a decent season, although the Yankees thought they were getting a little more when they signed him this off season. His strikeouts have dropped and his walks have increased this year. He's been getting the K's lately but he is still allowing too many walks. He has had a good history against the Red Sox and was dominant in his last start against them a few weeks back. Tazawa is a contact pitcher who is making his 3rd career start and has yet to make it past the 5th inning. His stuff isn't anything special and the Yankees should have no problem scoring runs and extending their division lead this afternoon.

In the second game Chris Carpenter is matched up against Kevin Correia. Carpenter is a top CY Young candidate who has been on top of his game lately. Corriea has been solid in his last 4 starts going 1-1 with a 2.22 ERA, but that shouldn't last. Over that time his strikeouts have dropped while his walks have increased, and he's been the beneficiary of a low hit rate. His K/BB ratio over that time is around 1, and that tells me his ERA is due for a spike. That's good news for Carpenter as the Cardinals should score enough runs for him to pick up another win and build his case for the CY Young.

Bets

$15 NYY -150

$42 STL -210

Split, Down $3

The Phillies won easily while Josh Johnson and the Marlins struggled.

Portfolio: $1056 (14.7% return)
S&P 500: $1007 (9.3% return)

Today’s Game

San Francisco (+160) @ Colorado (-180)

In the only game I like today Jonathan Sanchez is matched up against Aaron Cook. Sanchez is an erratic pitcher who has good stuff. His strikeout and hit rates tell me his stuff is pretty good, and the fact that he threw a no hitter puts his stuff up there with the best. His problem is he walks way too many. Even with 10 walks in his last 19 innings, he has gone 1-1 with a 2.84 ERA over that time which tells me he is at the top of his game stuff wise. Believe it or not, Sanchez’s indicators are almost identical to Clayton Kershaw’s. Kershaw has had some luck in his hit rate and strand rate which is why his ERA is 2.96 compared to 4.49 for Sanchez. The veteran Cook is usually a solid ground ball pitcher who keeps his team in the game, but he has reverted back to his early season form and that’s not good news for the Rockies. He is 0-2 with an 8.36 ERA over his last 3 starts. His walks have increased, strikeouts decreased, and he is giving up the long ball. If he can’t snap out of this funk he could be in for a long night even against a light hitting Giants team. I like the Giants in game 1 of their biggest series of the year.

Bet

$20 SF +160

Cardinals Win

The Cardinals took the 3 game series against the Dodgers in what was a great series if anyone stayed up to watch. This could very well be a playoff matchup if the Dodgers can hold on to the division.

Portfolio: $1059 (15% return)
S&P 500: $996 (8.1% return)

Today’s Games

Arizona (+170) @ Philadelphia (-190)
Florida (-130) @ Houston (+110)

In the first game Doug Davis is matched up against Joe Blanton. Davis has an ERA of 3.59 but it is due to rise as he as stranded a very high percentage of runners, which is mostly luck. He does not strikeout many and walks a little too many to have a mid 3 ERA. The Phillies should not have any problems leaving runners on base against this soft tossing lefty. Blanton is pretty average at 7-6 with a 3.88 ERA. His K/BB ratio of 3.14 is really good, but the long ball is what has hurt him this year. I just think the Phillies will score enough runs that it won’t matter if he gives up a couple bombs.

In the second game Josh Johnson is matched up against Wandy Rodriguez. Johnson is having a great season at 12-2 with a 2.85 ERA, and he’s even better in his last 3 starts going 2-0 with a 2.66 ERA. His stats look pretty legit. His hit rate has been a little low lately, but he has really stepped up his strikeouts and lowered his walks, so that tells me his stuff is there. Rodriguez is having a solid season, but has struggled lately going 1-1 with a 6.60 ERA over his last 3. He’s been giving away a ton of free passes and his strikeouts have declined, so that tells me his stuff is not what is was earlier in the season. I like the Marlins with their Cy Young candidate on the mound to keep pace with the division leading Phillies.

Bets

$19 PHI -190
$13 FLA -130

No Action Last Night

Portfolio: $1037 (12.6% return)
S&P 500: $990 (7.5% return)

Today’s Game

St. Louis (+110) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-130)

In the only game I like today Adam Wainwright is matched up against Clayton Kershaw in a battle between two sub 3 ERA’s. Wainwright is having a great season and has been really good lately, going 2-1 with a 1.31 ERA in his last 3, and it looks legit. He’s not walking anybody, his hits are normal, and his strikeouts are normal. Kershaw is also having a great season and is pitching well lately, going 2-0 with a 2.70 ERA in his last 4, but it doesn’t look to hold. He has been walking way too many, 5.06 BB/9 for the year, and his hit rate is way too low but seems to be turning around lately. I like the battle tested Wainwright in the rubber game between these two solid teams.

Bet

$20 STL +110

Cardinals Take Care of Business, S&P Takes a Beating

Carpenter pitched solid and the Cardinals scored just enough for him to pick up the win.

Portfolio: $1037 (12.6% return)
S&P 500: $980 (6.4% return)

Today’s Games

None

No Action Yesterday

I made a pretty good comeback over the last few days, going 7-1 and gaining $114.

Portfolio: $1017 (10.4% return)
S&P 500: $1004 (9% return)

Today’s Game

St. Louis (-170) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (+150)

In the only game I like today Chris Carpenter is matched up against Charlie Haeger. Carpenter is having a great season after missing the last 2 due to injury. He is 12-3 with a 2.27 ERA. His ERA may be a little low due to a slight drop in strikeouts and a little lower hit rate than normal, but he’s still legit. Haeger, who is making his second career start, has struggled in his brief time in the majors over the last 3 years. The Cardinals are playing well and are winners of four in a row so they should have no problem scoring enough runs for Carpenter who should be solid.

Bet

$34 STL -170

Dodgers Lose In 10

Jonathan Broxton blew a 2 run lead in the bottom of the ninth and the Diamondbacks went on to win in 10. This snapped my 6 game winning streak, not too bad, but should have been 7. Do you know the odds of winning 6 games in a row? 1 in 64, or 1.6%.

Portfolio: $1017 (10.4% return)
S&P 500: $1004 (9% return)

Today's Games

None

Swept All 3 Again, Up $60

Another great night and I passed the S&P 500.

Portfolio: $1043 (13.2% return)
S&P 500: $1004 (9% return)

Today's Game

Los Angeles Dodgers (-130) @ Arizona (+110)

In the only game I like today Hiroki Kuroda is matched up against Doug Davis. Kuroda is a control pitcher who gets some ground balls and misses an average amount of bats. He has been on his game lately going 2-0 with a 2.96 ERA, and it looks legit. The lefty Davis is a crafty pitcher who walks a little too many. He has been the beneficiary of good luck as hit hit and strand rates are not sustainable. I like the Dodgers at -130 as they light up Davis earlier in the year and Kuroda is throwing well.

Bet

$26 LAD -130

3-0, Up $60

I’m catching right back up to the S&P 500. A good day today and I might even be ahead of it.

Portfolio: $983 (6.7% return)
S&P 500: $1013 (10% return)

Today’s Games

Philadelphia (+120) @ Atlanta (-140)
Boston (+130) @ Texas (-150)
San Diego (+190) @ St. Louis (-230)

In the first game Joe Blanton is matched up against Jair Jurrjens in a battle between two hot division rivals. Blanton has upped his strikeouts and is having a solid season except that he has struggled to keep the ball in the yard. But playing in the pitcher friendly Atlanta should take care of that problem. Jurrjens is a good pitcher, but has been the beneficiary of good luck up until a few starts ago. The baseball gods are turning on him as he not stranding all base runners anymore. The Phillies will pull this one out to distance in an important series to distance themselves from the Braves.

In the second game Jon Lester is going up against Kevin Millwood. Lester has the strikeout and walk rates of an ace but has been the victim of bad luck. He’s even a slight ground ball pitcher. Millwood on the other hand has had some really good luck this year. His strikeouts are down and everything else looks normal, so the fact that his ERA is 3.38 tells me it will rise. Lester has been pitching great as of late and should keep it up against a Texas team that is coming back from a 10 game road trip.

In the third game Mat Latos is matched up against Adam Wainwright. Latos is a young prospect who has pitched well so far, but I think he will struggle against a lineup that includes Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday. The Cardinals ace, Wainwright, has been pitching great this year and should mow down the light hitting Padres.

Bets

$20 PHI +120
$20 BOS +130
$23 STL -230

San Francisco Pulls It Out In 10

Lincecum was pitching a gem but let up a 2 out 2 strike single in the 9th to Andre Ethier that tied the game at 2. The Giants then went on to win on a walk off home run by Juan Uribe and I finally got a much needed win.

Portfolio: $923 (0.2% return)
S&P 500: $1006 (9.2% return)

Today’s Games

Detroit (-120) @ Boston (-100)
Philadelphia (-140) @ Chicago Cubs (+120)
New York Yankees (-210) @ Seattle (+180)

In the first game Justin Verlander is matched up against the young prospect Clay Buchholz. The hard throwing Verlander has been dominant this season as he has cut down on his walks and is missing a lot of bats. Buchholz has struggled in the majors as he has yet to gain command of his pitches and has not shown the ability to strikeout batters like he did in the minors. Verlander will step up and make sure the Red Sox don’t get the sweep in this 4 game series.

The second game has Cliff Lee going up against Ryan Dempster. Last years American League CY Young award winner has been in CY Young form ever since getting traded to the Phillies and I look for him to keep it up and the Phillies to complete the sweep of the Cubs. Dempster will give up the long ball while Lee is pretty good at keeping it in the park.

The third game has CC Sabathia going up against Ian Snell. The Yankees big free agent signing looks like he is coming into his CY Young form while Snell looks like he is reverting back to his Pirate ways. Sabathia’s strikeouts and walks are improved from earlier in the year and they are right in line with his last 2 dominant seasons. Snell has struggled in every way possible this season and has no chance against a hot Yankee lineup.

Bets

$24 DET -120
$28 PHI -140
$42 NYY -210

Also, it’s tough being an Indians fan seeing 2 CY Young winners being traded away in 2 years. Those don’t come along too often, but I guess the cheap ass Indians ownership can’t see that.

My Losing Ways Continue

The Rays lost 6-0 as Ervin Santana threw a 3 hit gem. On the positive side I only bet $12.

Portfolio: $903 (-2% return)
S&P 500: $994 (7.9% return)

Today's Game

Los Angeles Dodgers (+180) @ San Francisco Giants (-190)

I'm going with a safe one today to get back on the winning track. Journey man Jeff Weaver is matched up against Tim Lincecum. The Dodgers won the last 2 nights and Lincecum will make sure the Giants don't get swept by the division leader because that's what top ace's do. Weaver is nothing special and the Giants should have no problem scoring.

Bet

$38 SF -190

No Games Yesterday

Portfolio: $915 (-0.7% return)
S&P 500: $1007 (9.3 % return)

Today’s Game

Tampa Bay (-120) @ Los Angeles Angels (-110)

In the only game I like today David Price is going up against Ervin Santana. Price struggled with control when he was first called up, but has fixed that lately as he has only walked 4 in his last 22 innings. His strikeouts are there and if he can keep the walks down he will be solid. Santana has struggled in his injury shortened season and does not have the control he had last year. His strikeouts are also down and it looks he has lost some of his stuff. I look for Tampa Bay to jump on the struggling Santana.

Bets

$12 TB -120

Twins Lose

I lost 20 more dollars last night to drop below $921 for the first time in a while. I’m just not seeing the games right. I guess that’s why August is called the dog days. I can’t believe the S&P 500 would be the better investment over the last month and a half, I’ll start making a comeback.

Portfolio: $915 (-0.7% return)
S&P 500: $1010 (9.7% return)

Today’s Games

None

No Action Last Night

Portfolio: $935 (1.5% return)

S&P 500: $1010 (9.7% return)

Today's Game

Minnesota (+110) @ Detriot (-120)

In the only game I like today Scott Baker is going up against Jarrod Washburn. Baker's 9-7 record and 4.59 ERA make it look like he is an average pitcher having an average season, but that's not the case. He has a solid 3.9 K/BB ratio and has shown improvement on his strikeout rate over the last 3 years. His walk rate of 1.91 BB/9 is one of the best in the majors. Baker was the victim of bad luck early on in the season with a low strand rate and high home run rate. He is a fly ball pitcher so he will allow his fair share of long balls, but not at the rate he was giving up earlier. Over his last 3 starts he is 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA. Pitching in the spacious Tigers ballpark will really benefit him today. Washburn on the other hand looks like he going out and dominating on a regular basis with an 8-7 and a 2.93 ERA. Well that's not the case as he has been the beneficiary of good luck. His strikeout and walk rate are right on his career averages and he is still a fly ball pitcher. What has helped him is his low hit rate of 7.48 compared to his 8.92 career average. It also seems he is getting a little lucky on strand rate. He is starting to come back to earth in his last 2 starts going 0-1 with a 5.11 ERA. I like the underdog Twins, with their ace on the mound, to take this series from the Tigers.

Bets

$20 MIN +110

Red Sox and Giants Both Lose

Not a good night yesterday as the Red Sox offense failed to show up for 15 innings and the Giants solid defense and bullpen fell apart. The Cubs scratched Zambrano due to a stiff back so that bet was invalid. I ended up losing $52 and the S&P 500 gained $13.

Portfolio: $935 (1.5% return)

S&P 500: $1010 (9.7% return)

Today's Games

None (might not be a bad thing)

Smoltz Gets Rocked Again, Red Sox Lose

Wow, John Smoltz continued his streak of bad pitching and I'm starting to wonder if he really has lost it. Good thing I only bet $10.

Portfolio: $987 (7.2% return)

S&P 500: $997 (8.3% return)

Today's Games

Boston (+110) @ New York Yankees (-120)

Chicago Cubs (+130) @ Colorado (-140)

Cincinnati (+260) @ San Francisco (-320)

In the first game Josh Beckett is matched up against A.J. Burnett. Beckett is having a solid season and his indicators are right on his career averages. He is a top 10 pitcher and one thing he has improved this year is his ground ball rate which has brought his hit rate and home runs down. Burnett is having an average season for him by going 10-5 with a 3.89 ERA although it looks like his skills aren't all the way there. His strikeouts are down, walks are up, and his ground ball rate is at it's lowest in 8 years which has lead to more home runs. I look for him to struggle against a patient Boston offense that has lit him up twice this year.

In the second game Carlos Zambrano is matched up against Ubaldo Jimenez. You can see my analysis on Zambrano from 7/27 as not much has changed. Jimenez is a solid ground ball pitcher who strikes out 8.02 per nine. He has really cut down on his walks this year, going to 3.38 BB/9 from 4.67 BB/9 last year. He is even better in his last 4 starts only giving up 2.57 BB/9 and that's largely why he's 2-0 over that span. Basically he has such good stuff that if he can find his control he has a pretty good chance of winning, and since he has had good control recently I like Colorado at -140.

In the third game Homer Bailey is matched up against Tim Lincecum. Bailey was once a top prospect but has failed to show anything in the big leagues. He has not struck out many and walks too many and he is also a slight fly ball pitcher. Lincecum is the best pitcher in baseball and has pitched better at home than on the road. Add in the fact that the Reds have one of the worst offenses and this should be a piece of cake for the Giants. I never like to bet games that are this heavily favored since there is too much risk, but this is almost automatic and I need to keep up with the S&P 500.

Bets

$20 BOS +110

$28 COL -140

$32 SF -320

Rockies Lose 7-0

The Rockies lost as J.A. Happ threw his first complete game shoutout of his career. The S&P 500 also took the lead on my portfolio.

Portfolio: $997 (8.3% return)
S&P 500: $1003 (8.9% return)

Today's Game

Boston (+190) @ New York Yankees (-210)

In the only game I like today John Smoltz is matched up against Joba Chamberlain. Smoltz has struggled this year and you can see my analysis on him from 7-31. Not much has changed and he should start to turn things around. Chamberlain started off slow but has been pitching great lately, going 3-0 with a 0.83 ERA in his last 3 starts. It looks like he has found his groove as his strikeout and walk rates are better than earlier in the year. But looking at his low hit rate of 3.3 over his last 3 starts it's pretty much a sure thing that he cannot keep up his recent dominance. Throw that in with the fact that the Red Sox have won all 8 games against the Yankees this year and are upset after getting swept in a short 2 game series against the Rays that put them 2.5 games back and you have a pretty good play at +190 with a proven big game pitcher.

Bet

$10 BOS +190

No Games Last Night

Portfolio: $1017 (10.4% return)
S&P 500: $1006 (9.2% return)

Today’s Game

Colorado (+150) @ Philadelphia (-170)

In the only game I like today Jorge De Le Rosa is matched up against J.A. Happ. De La Rosa has been pitching pretty good lately going 5-0 with a 2.50 ERA in the month of July. The lefty strikes out about a hitter per inning, gets more ground balls than fly balls, but walks a little too many at 3.84 BB/9. His walk rate is actually down from his 4.68 career rate and that is why he has enjoyed success this season. His ERA is 4.68 for the year, but he was roughed up pretty good in May and June. When he doesn’t issue free passes he can be a tough matchup. Happ has had success in his rookie season going 7-2 with a 2.97 ERA. His 6.45 strikeout rate and 2.97 walk rate are about average, but his hit rate of 7.47 seems a little low given the fact that he is a fly ball pitcher. His hit rate looks like it’s ticking up lately as he has allowed 18 hits in his last 19 innings, and his ERA has been rising and should continue to rise if his indicators stay the same. The Rockies have won 5 in a row while the Phillies have dropped 3 in a row and 5 out of 6. I look for these trends to continue and like the +150 odds the lefty De La Rosa is getting against a lefty heavy lineup.

Bets

$20 COL +150

Greinke Struggles, Royals Lose

The Royals offense scored 4 runs and that should have been enough for Zack Greinke, but he had one of his worst outings of the season yesterday afternoon. The S&P 500 topped $1000 for the first time since I started a month a half ago.

Portfolio: $1017 (10.4% return)
S&P 500: $1003 (8.9% return)

Today’s Games

None

No Action Yesterday

I had a pretty good weekend, gaining $60 or 6.5%.

Portfolio: $1037 (12.6% return)
S&P 500: $987 (7.2% return)

Today’s Game

Kansas City (+120) @ Tampa Bay (-140)

In the only game I like today Zack Greinke is matched up against Scott Kazmir. Grienke is having a CY Young caliber season with a 10-6 record and 2.08 ERA. The Royals haven’t been scoring any runs for him lately and he should probably have around 15 wins. Greinke really shifted gears this season and proved he is one of the games elite. His strikeouts are up and walks are down and both are at elite levels. He has a great 5.47 K/BB ratio, which is one of the best in the majors. Kazmir has had a rough, injury plagued season going 5-6 with a 6.22 ERA. His indicators don’t look too good either. His 6.89 K/9 rate is down from his 9.46 career average and his 4.56 BB/9 rate is up from his 4.18 career average. His ground ball rate is right on his career average, but that’s not good as he is a fly ball pitcher. His hit rate looks a little high even though it seems he has lost his stuff a little. The Royals offense is really bad, but if they can be patient they should be able to score some runs off Kazmir. The Rays might be pressing a little in trying to win this 4 game series against the lowly Royals to keep pace with Boston and New York. Greinke should throw well and this game will probably be decided on weather the Royals offense and bullpen don’t stink. At +120, I’ll take the AL CY Young candidate.

Bets

$20 KC +120

Beckett Strong, Red Sox Win

The Red Sox won 4-0 last night to bring my portfolio up $20.

Portfolio: $1037 (12.6% return)
S&P 500: $987 (7.2% return)

Today's Games

None

Good Night Last Night

I won both games to bring my portfolio up $40 while the S&P 500 basically stood still.

Portfolio: $1017 (10.4% return)
S&P 500: $987 (7.2% return)

Today's Games

Boston (-180) @ Baltimore (+160)

The first game has Josh Beckett matched up against David Hernandez. The Red Sox ace is having a good season at 12-4 with a 3.44 ERA. He has increased his ground ball rate this year and that has lowered his hit rate. All other numbers are right where they should be. Hernandez does not impress me so far. He's an extreme fly ball pitcher who doesn't strikeout many, but he has decent control. I do not see the Red Sox struggling to score runs against Hernandez and believe -180 is a good play.

Bets

$36 BOS -180