Buchholz Gets Rocked, Red Sox Lose

The Red Sox almost dug out of the hole that Clay Buchholz put them in, losing 8-7 and leaving the tying run on second base. This is why is hard to bet at the end of the season.

Portfolio: $1081 (17.4% return)
S&P 500: $1061 (15.2% return)

Today’s Games

Minnesota (-130) @ Detroit (+110)

In the only game today Carl Pavano is matched up against Eddie Bonine. Pavano has been a solid acquisition for the Twins and has eaten up the Tigers this year going 4-0 with a 1.69 ERA in 5 starts. He has 22 strikeouts to only 1 walk in those starts. He has been keeping his team in the game in as of late and his indicators are right where they should be for him. Bonine is making just his 4th start this year and has a 2.31 ERA in his last 2 starts. His indicators tell me he’s nothing special and he is getting lucky with a low hit rate. He doesn’t strikeout enough batters and walks too many to sustain a low ERA. I like the Twins to take this must win game with a veteran pitcher who has had success in big games. At -130 I believe this is a good value play.

Bets

$26 MIN -130

No Action Yesterday

Portfolio: $1103 (19.8% return)
S&P 500: $1063 (15.4% return)

Today’s Games

Toronto (+200) @ Boston (-220)

In the only game Ricky Romero is matched up against Clay Buchholz. Romero got off to a decent start, but has struggled in the second half of his rookie season. He has above average stuff, but his control just isn’t there. His walks have even been worse lately, and that’s not good when facing a patient Red Sox lineup. He has been lit up in 4 starts against the Sox this year going 0-3 with an 8.83 ERA. Buchholz has been solid since getting called up in mid-July, and had been lights out as of late. He’s pitching like the Red Sox believed he could, going 3-0 with a 0.67 ERA in his last 4. He is a strikeout pitcher who has had good control lately and gets a decent amount of ground balls. He has all the makings of a future ace and he might make a name for himself this postseason. He has dominated the Blue Jays in 3 starts this year going 3-0 with a 1.35 ERA. I believe Buchholz will take this start seriously as he wants to stay on top of his game and carry this momentum into the playoffs.

Bets

$22 BOS -220

Titans Lose – Down $11

The Jets hot streak continues, and the Titans are off to a 0-3 start. Neither team is as good or bad as their record indicates. The Titans especially are not 0-3 bad, as they can stop the run and run the ball. Usually teams that are successful doing that will win more than they lose. I am going to try to put together a model for the NFL to determine statistical indicators and margin of victory, but I won’t know for another 2-4 weeks if anything comes out of that.

Heading into the last week of the baseball season there are only 2 playoff races going on, the American League Central and the National League Wild Card. The end of this baseball season has been one of the least entertaining in a while, and the games are really hard to predict as I don’t know who trying and who’s not. For example, I’m not sure if Josh Beckett will come out tonight with the focus and intensity he’s had over the last month since his team has basically wrapped up the Wild Card. Out of the teams that are in a race, I do not like any tonight. I’m not sure how many baseball games I will like this week, but if you’ve been following my advice the last month I have had a decent run gaining over 20%.

Portfolio: $1103 (19.8% return)
S&P 500: $ 1044 (13.4% return)


Today’s Games

None

Wainwright Solid, Cardinals Win

Portfolio: $1114 (21% return)

S&P 500: $1044 (13.4% return)

Today's Games

Tennessee @ New York Jets (-1)

No baseball today, but I do like an NFL game. Tennessee is off to an 0-2 start, but can just as easily be 2-0. They stop the run with the best of them and will force Sanchez to beat them. He's been good so far, but I think this is the game where he shows that he is a rookie. The Titans will play conservative like normal on offense and not turn the ball over against an aggressive Jets defense. The Jets were looking forward to the game last week against the Patriots and played an emotional game. Usually teams like that have a downfall the week after. I'm not too confident in betting NFL games yet, so I'll just risk $11, or 1% of my portfolio.

Bet

$11 TEN +1

Rough Night - Down $75

Looks like I was way off on the Red Sox game as Lester was the one who lasted 2 1/3 innings and Chamberlain went 6. The Marlins also blew a save after burning me Wednesday night by coming back against Philadelphia. It's tough going 0-fer when betting favorites in baseball, but overall my portfolio is still in decent shape. I'm still not comfortable betting on college football yet.

Portfolio: $1088 (18.1% return)

S&P 500: $1044 (13.4% return)

Today's Games

St. Louis (+130) @ Colorado (-140)

In the only game today Adam Wainwright is matched up against Ubaldo Jimenez in a possible division series match up. Wainwright is sharp right now and is looking to lock up some more votes for the CY Young and clinch the division for his team. I do not see a weakness in his game. Jimenez is the Rockies ace and is looking to help his team nail down the wild card, but has been inconsistent lately as his walk rate has spiked. I like the Cardinals in a good value play here.

Bet

$20 STL +130

No Action Yesterday

Portfolio: $1163 (26.3% return)
S&P 500: $1051 (14.1% return)

Today’s Games

Boston (-130) @ New York Yankees (+110)
New York Mets (+160) @ Florida (-180)

In the first game Jon Lester is matched up against Joba Chamberlain. Lester has turned into the best left handed starter in the American League and has really strong indicators. He has been pitching well lately and he has had success against the Yankees this year, so I expect he should put up another solid performance as he’s gearing up for the postseason. Chamberlain has been on an innings/pitch count limit this month and has really struggled during that span. He is 0-2 with an 8.31 ERA in his last 4 starts and that’s mainly due to lack of command. I like the Red Sox in this one as the Yankees will be dipping into the bullpen early while Lester should give the Sox at least 6 solid innings.

In the second game Tim Redding is matched up against Ricky Nolasco. Redding is a below average pitcher who will not strikeout many, walks a little too many, and gives up the long ball too much. Although he has a 3.00 ERA over his last 3 starts, I do not expect him to keep it up as his indicators are weak and he is benefitting from a low hit rate. Florida has also has their way with him this year as he has gone 1-2 with an 8.04 ERA in 3 starts. Nolasco is an inconsistent pitcher who has really good stuff. Although he has a 5.55 ERA over his last 4 starts, his indicators are top notch. Over that span his K/9 rate is 9.25 while his BB/9 rate is 1.48. Those are actually not far off from his season averages and with those indicators he should be in the CY Young talks, but instead he is 12-9 with a 5.34 ERA. I’ll take the guy with the good stuff against a weak lineup.

Bets

$39 BOS -130
$36 FLA -180

Phillies Lose, Red Sox Win - Down $14

Hamels and Beckett didn't go out and dominate, but they pitched well enough to win. Brad Lidge blew another save and was the difference in my portfolio gaining $40 or losing $14.

If anyone watched the Phillies game on ESPN I feel sorry for your ears since you had to listen to such bad commentating. I cannot believe how much they were talking about Cole Hamels not throwing his curveball because they thought his arm was hurt. I believe the commentator was Rick Sutcliffe, but I could be wrong. He also went as far as to say that the Phillies are hiding an injury. This is complete fabrication as Hamels generally does not throw his curveball unless he has the feel for it, which he rarely does. He throws his curve less than 10% of the time and last year during his postseason run he very rarely threw a curve. He’s a fastball and change up pitcher. Even Karl Ravech after the game commented that Hamels was only throwing fastballs. ESPN has gotten so far away from just covering sports that I cannot stand them and very rarely watch anything on that network. Over the years I have found that no one employed by ESPN really knows that much about any sport. I have watched Hamels pitch less than 10 times and somehow I know more about how he pitches than the so called ESPN analyst, what a joke. I will use this to my advantage as a lot of people will believe that and bet against Hamels which will move the line in my favor. One of the factors I use in betting NFL games is the go against whoever ESPN decides to hype up.

Portfolio: $1163 (26.3% return)
S&P 500: $1061 (15.2% return)

Today's Games

None

Dodgers and Royals Win Easily

Both games went just as I predicted and my portfolio gained $40.

Portfolio: $1177 (27.8% return)
S&P 500: $1072 (16.4% return)

Today’s Games

Philadelphia (-170) @ Florida (+150)
Boston (-200) @ Kansas City (+170)

In the first game Cole Hamels is matched up against Rick VandenHurk. After struggling for most of the year by his standards, Cole Hamels has found his groove as of late. During his struggles he was the victim of bad luck as his hit rate was high for no reason, but that has turned around recently. His indicators are really strong over his last 4 starts in which he has gone 3-1 with an 1.82 ERA and all signs point to him keeping it up. VandenHurk has also pitched well lately and has decent stuff, but gives out the free pass a little too frequently. He is also a fly ball pitcher which does not bode well when facing the Phillies. He has kept the ball in the park in his last 3 starts, but I do not see him keeping that up. I like the Phillies with their ace in postseason form to take this one.

In the second game Josh Beckett is matched up against Luke Hochevar. Beckett has had an up and down season, but he’s currently on the up part and looks to be gearing up for the playoffs. His indicators are strong and his homerun woes are behind him so I look for him to continue to deal. Hochevar is inconsistent but he’s coming off a complete game, 3 hit shutout. He has the potential to be a solid number 3 and possibly number 2 starter, but you never know what you’re going to get from him start to start. His indicators tell me that his ERA should be lower than 5.79. He has had 4 really good starts this year but has laid an egg in the following start 3 times. I look for Beckett to dominate a weak lineup and Hochevar to lay another egg after a solid performance.

Bets

$34 PHI -170
$40 BOS -200

No Action Yesterday

Portfolio: $1137 (23.5% return)
S&P 500: $1065 (15.6% return)

Today’s Games

Los Angeles Dodgers (-200) @ Washington (+170)
Boston (+130) @ Kansas City (-150)

In the first game Hiroki Kuroda is matched up against Livan Hernandez. Kuroda is a control pitcher who gets a few more ground balls than fly balls. He is not a strikeout pitcher but hitters struggle to find the sweet spot against him. Overall he’s a solid number 2 or 3 starter who has been pitching well lately. He’s 2-1 with a 2.84 ERA over his last 3 starts and his indicators are really strong. The soft tossing veteran Hernandez mainly relies on deception as he really does not have one strong indicator. This is most likely the reason why he is 8-11 with a 5.22 ERA this year. He has been decent his last 2 starts, going 1-1 with a 2.70, and that is exactly the reason why I like the Dodgers. Kuroda is on top of his game while Hernandez is due for a let down against the best team in the National League.

In the second game Paul Byrd is matched up against Zack Greinke. The veteran Byrd is similar to Livan Hernandez in the fact that he relies on the deception. The difference between the two is Byrd rarely gives up the walk, and that is why he has been better the last few years. Byrd has not been impressive in his brief time with the Red Sox as he is handing out about twice as much free passes compared to the past 6 years and batters and hitting him hard. Greinke is fine after leaving early in his last start due to being hit with a line drive in the elbow. He has been on top of his game lately and looks to add to his case for the American League CY Young award. Soft tossers like Byrd generally struggle against inexperienced hitters so the Royals should be able to put up a few runs early. Greinke should continue to roll and an impressive performance against a good hitting Red Sox team will definitely secure more votes.

Bets

$40 LAD -200
$30 KC -150

Cardinals Lose In 11 - Down $32

Zambrano and Wainwright were both sharp, but an error in the 6th most likely cost the Cardinals the game. Wainwright struck out 10 in 7 innings.

Portfolio: $1137 (23.5% return)
S&P 500: $1068 (16% return)

Today's Games

None

Boston and Colorado Take Care of Business

My portfolio gained $40 as Jon Lester and Jason Hammel pitched solid and both teams pulled away at the end of the game to win easily. I'm staying away from the NFL this week as it is still way too unpredictable. I have also decided to list my winning percentage for the first time today. If you have been following my advice and using my conservative money management approach then you should be doing pretty well.

Portfolio: $1169 (27% return)

S&P 500: $1068 (16% return)

Overall Record: 48-33 (59%)

Favorites: 34-18 (65%)

Underdogs: 15-14 (52%)

Today’s Games

Chicago Cubs (+140) @ St. Louis (-160)

Carlos Zambrano is matched up against Adam Wainwright. Zambrano is an erratic pitcher who has not been throwing well lately. While his strikeouts are up, so are his walks and hits. He has also not fared well against the Cardinals this year. Wainwright is making a bid for the National League CY Young award and has been on top of his game in his last 2 starts. His indicators tell me that he will keep it up. He is 3-0 with a 2.43 ERA against the Cubs in 4 starts this year and has an ERA of 1.89 at home. This is ESPN’s Sunday night game of the week and Wainwright will have the chance to show everyone how good he has been as the Cardinals should complete the sweep.

Bet

$32 STL -160

No Action Yesterday

Portfolio: $1129 (22.6% return)

S&P 500: $1068 (16% return)

Today's Games

Boston (-220) @ Baltimore (+190)

Colorado (+100) @ Arizona (-110)

In the first game today Jon Lester is matched up against David Hernandez. Lester is becoming one of the better left handed pitchers in the game and one of the better pitchers in the American League. His K rate of 10.07 and BB rate of 2.86 are pretty close to Tim Lincecum’s with the main difference being he gives up more hits. Lester has been on top of his game lately going 3-0 with a 0.86 ERA over his last 3 starts. His hit rate is a little low over that span so that should start to tick up, but he will still be dominant. He has also carved up the Orioles this year, going 3-0 with a 0.84 ERA in 3 starts. Hernandez has struggled in his first stint in the big leagues, going 4-8 with a 5.40 ERA. There’s really not much to like so far as he does not miss many bats, issues too many free passes, and is an extreme fly ball pitcher which has led to him giving up 23 homeruns in 85 innings. He has also been lit up by the Red Sox this year in 3 starts, going 1-2 with a 5.79 ERA. He really can’t be pitching any worse right now as he has only thrown 10 2/3 innings in his last 3 starts while carrying an ERA of 13.50. The Red Sox are playing solid baseball right now while the Orioles can’t say the same. One of the better pitchers is facing one of the worst pitchers lately. I’m not sure why the Red Sox are not favored by more, but I’ll bet the max (up to 5%) on them at -220.

In the second game today Jason Hammel is matched up against Max Scherzer. Hammel is turning into a serviceable starter as he has improved his control and is inducing more ground balls. His indicators tell me he has been throwing well lately, but has been a victim of bad luck. His K, BB, and hit rates are all really solid it’s just that he’s been giving a couple more runs than he should be. If he continues to pitch like he has things will turn around. It’s not like he has been bad over his last 4 starts with a 4.07 ERA, it’s just that it should be lower. He has also fared a lot better on the road as his ERA is 2.75 points lower. The hard throwing Scherzer has been pitching pretty well as of late, going 1-1 with a 2.61 in his last 3, but I do not think he will keep it up. His K rate is extremely low compared to his season average and that tells me his stuff might not be there this late into the season. Neither the Rockies nor the Diamondbacks are playing well lately, but I like the Rockies at +100 as they have fared well against Scherzer this year.

Bet

$44 BOS -220

$20 COL +100

Royals Cruise – Up $40

Greinke was dominant fanning 8 in 5 innings before he had to leave the game after getting hit by a line drive in the elbow. Elbow injuries are never good, but this one is different as his tendons and ligaments should be fine.

Portfolio: $1129 (22.6% return)
S&P 500: $1065 (15.6% return)


Today’s Games

None

Cardinals Lose, Down $26

Joel Pineiro struggled in the first inning and the Cardinals failed to give him run support. Maybe the Marlins are not out of the race. If you haven’t noticed, the S&P 500 had a solid day and seems to have gained almost everyday for the past 2 weeks.

Portfolio: $1089 (18.2% return)

S&P 500: $1069 (16.1% return)

Today’s Games

Kansas City(-100) @ Detroit (-120)

In the only game today Zack Greinke is matched up against Edwin Jackson. Greinke is on top of his game right now and is showing no signs of slowing down. He is 2-1 with a 1.16 ERA in 4 starts against the Tigers this year. Jackson got off to a great start but has faded lately. His walk rate and hit rate are ticking up to his career averages and that’s the main reason for his recent struggles. I like the Royals, who are playing good baseball and have the best pitcher in the league on the mound, to beat the Tigers, who might start to feel the Twins creeping up on them. I’m not sure why the Tigers are favored in this game.

Bet

$40 KC -100

Royals Win, Angels Lose – Down $7

Robinson Tejeda had electric stuff and pitched 5 innings of 1 run ball and Dice-K surprisingly outdueled Lackey.

Portfolio: $1115 (21.1% return)
S&P 500: $1053 (14.3% return)

Today’s Games

Florida (+110) @ St. Louis (-130)

In the only game today Josh Johnson is matched up against Joel Pineiro. Johnson has had a solid season, but is showing signs of fatigue as his walks are way up lately. Other than that all his other indicators are normal. He is also being monitored closely as he is coming off Tommy John surgery. I don’t expect him to throw more than 95 pitches. Pineiro is having a career year due to pinpoint control, 1.04 BB/9, and an increased ground ball rate. He has turned himself into a heavy ground ball pitcher after being about a 55/45 ground ball to fly ball guy earlier in his career. He won’t miss many bats, but hitter’s don’t square him up that often. Florida had a bad weekend and may have fallen out of the playoff race while the Cardinals are playing for home field advantage. I like the Cardinals and Pineiro.

Bet

$26 STL -130

2-0, Up $30

Not a bad night. That Patriots/Bills game last night was crazy. Both football games last night once again showed how unpredictable the first week of the season is, and why I stayed away from it.

Portfolio: $1122 (21.8% return)
S&P 500: $1049 (13.9% return)

By looking at the chart below you can see that my returns compared to the S&P 500 are more volatile, but that I have been outpacing it most of the time. This is just the beginning, spread the word to people that you think would find this quick daily read interesting. Once baseball season ends there will be less posts, and I'm not sure how much NBA I will get into. But you can expect football picks and most likely some college basketball.



Today’s Games

Kansas City (+150) @ Detroit (-170)
Los Angeles Angels (-110) @ Boston (-110)

In the first game today Robinson Tejeda is matched up against Jarrod Washburn. Tejeda has not allowed a run since becoming a starter, a span of 13 innings over 2 starts. His stuff has been electric and he has really cut down on his walks. The Tigers couldn’t touch him in his last start. Washburn has underachieved for the Tigers after the trade, but has fared well against the Royals this year. He has been getting tagged as of late and his indicators point to him keeping it up. I like the Royals in a good value play here as this game should be a pick’em.

In the second game today John Lackey is matched up against Diasuke Matsuzaka. The Angels ace has been on top of his game lately and should keep it up in what will most likely be a Division Series matchup. Lackey is a big game pitcher who will be up for this game. Matsuzaka has not pitched in the majors since June. He throws way too many pitches and walks too many. He will not last past the 6th against a good Angels team. I’m not sure why the line is even, but I’ll take the Angels at this value.

Bet

$10 KC +150
$22 LAA -110

No Action Yesterday

It’s nice to see the NFL season starting again. I might bet a couple games next week now that I have a little feel for the teams. The one thing to remember about the NFL is that teams are not as good or bad as you think. I generally like to bet on teams that looked horrible the week before or against media over-hyped teams. A good example of this theory was the Jets/Texans game yesterday. The Jets were starting a rookie on the road while the Texans were supposed to have a high powered offense, so the -5 line seemed a little low. I bet Vegas made a killing on that game.

Portfolio: $1092 (18.6% return)
S&P 500: $1043 (13.2% return)

Today’s Games

Cleveland (+140) @ Minnesota (-160)
Colorado (+170) @ San Francisco (-180)

In the first game Jeremy Sowers is matched up against Carl Pavano. Sowers is a soft tossing left hander who has control issues. He really is not a major league pitcher, and I have yet to figure out why the Indians continue to give him opportunities. His K’s are way below the major league average at 3.69 and his walks are above the major league average at 3.61. He is also a fly ball pitcher. Not much to like here. Pavano is having an average season after being out most of the last 3 years due to injury. His indicators are pretty good and he has been throwing well over the last few months. He does occasionally get lit up, and that has really hurt his overall numbers. I doubt the Indians will light him up, and the Twins should be able to cross the plate a few times against Sowers.

In the second game Jason Hammel is matched up against Tim Lincecum. Hammel is turning into a solid middle of the rotation starter, and has been throwing well as of late. But I do not think he will out duel the rested Lincecum, who had his last start skipped due to a stiff lower back. Lincecum should have a little extra on his pitches and I really would not be surprised to see him go the distance in this must win game. The kid is so competitive that once he’s out there on the mound he will be fine.

Bet

$16 MIN -160
$36 SF -180

Baltimore Wins, Up $26

Portfolio: $1092 (18.6% return)

S&P 500: $1043 (13.2% return)

Today's Games

None

I don't see any baseball games I like and week 1 of the NFL is way too unpredictable.

Kansas City Wins In 12

It looks like I got a little lucky in winning $30, but Greinke should have easily picked up the win considering how dominant he was. He only allowed 4 hits in 7 innings while striking out 6 and walking none. Masterson on the other hand was getting out of trouble all night, allowing 8 base runners in 6 innings. He had some key double plays and that is why it is an advantage to be a ground ball pitcher. If he could just learn how to throw more strikes he will be pretty good. The same goes for Fausto Carmona.

Portfolio: $1066 (15.7% return)

S&P 500: $1043 (13.2% return)

Today’s Games

Baltimore (+260) @ New York Yankees (-320)

In the only game today the Orioles top prospect Brian Matusz is matched up against A.J. Burnett. Matusz has a 5.26 ERA in his brief time in the majors, but has shown promise as of late. Over his last 3 starts his indicators are really strong. He’s strikes out a decent amount while being stingy on the free pass. After allowing a ton of hits in his first few starts, it looks like that is normalized now. He is also left handed and facing the Yankees for the first time. Burnett has not pitched up to expectations and has struggled recently, except for his last start. His K’s are there, but he is walking way too many and his ground ball rate is the lowest of his career and that has lead to giving up the long ball. He has the stuff to go out and dominate on any given start, but I actually think Matusz will hold his own facing the Yankees for the first time. The forecast calls for rain so anything can happen pitching wise, but at +260 I think this is a great value play.

Bet

$10 Bal +260

No Action Yesterday, S&P 500 Continues Steady Gain

The NFL season kicked off last night with the Steelers winning 13-10 and the Titans covering. Tennessee has too good of a defense to be getting 7 points. I will be betting on football games, both college and NFL, but both are really tough to bet on early in the season. I will be betting more on NFL. I am working on a statistical probability system for the NFL, and if it ends up working I won’t be using it until midway through the season. I will still be betting on games before that, just not with my system. I am attempting to find a correlation between certain team stats, winning percentage, and margin of victory.

Over the past few years I have picked NFL games over a 50% clip. Two years ago I was around 65% for the season and hit 16 games in a row over a 4 week span. The probability of hitting 16 games in a row is 1 in 65536. Also, a tip for you bettors, stay away from parlays.

Portfolio: $1036 (12.5% return)
S&P 500: $1044 (13.4% return)

Today’s Games

Kansas City (-140) @ Cleveland (+120)

In the only game today Zack Greinke is matched up against Justin Masterson. Grienke is the leading American League CY Young candidate and has been on top of his game lately. He has not allowed a run in his last 2 starts, a span of 17 innings. His indicators tell me it’s legit. Masterson has struggled with his control since being traded to the Indians. He is a heavy ground ball pitcher to strikes out his fair share, so he has the potential to be pretty good. He just has to improve his control. I like the Royals as Greinke carved up the Indians in his last start, striking out 15, and they are playing well as they are coming off a 3 game sweep of the division leading Tigers.

Bet

$42 KC -140

Two Wins, $20

Wainwright dominated, Nolasco pitched solid and their offenses scored enough for both to pick up wins.

Portfolio: $1036 (12.5% return)

S&P 500: $1033 (12.2% return)

Today's Games

None

Very light schedule today.

Back To Normal Life

After being away from everything for 5 days I am now back on a normal schedule.

Portfolio: $1016 (10.3% return)
S&P 500: $1025 (11.3% return)

Today’s Games

St. Louis (-200) @ Milwaukee (+170)
Florida (-140) @ New York Mets (+120)

In the first game Adam Wainwright is matched up against Jeff Suppan. Wainwright is in the talks for the NL CY Young, but was roughed up by Pittsburgh is his last start although he did pick up the win. This doesn’t seem to be anything to worry about and he should bounce back against the Brewers, a team who he has dominated this year. Suppan is 1-0 with a 2.81 ERA in his last 3 starts, but he shouldn’t be able to keep that up. His K’s are way down and his BB’s are uncharacteristically high and that explains his 1.94 WHIP over that span. He might be pitching with a dead arm or slightly hurt, and that does not bode well against the division leading Cardinals.

In the second game Ricky Nolasco is matched up against Pat Misch. Nolasco has been pretty solid in the second half of the season and his K and BB rates are ace caliber. He has suffered from a low strand rate lately so his ERA of 4.38 over his last 4 starts should probably be lower. Misch is making only his third start this year after appearing in 19 games out of the pen. He won’t miss a lot of bats, walk too many, or get a lot of ground balls, but he is left handed. Nolasco should have a decent outing against a light hitting Mets team as the Marlins need to pick it up if they want to play into October.

Bets

$20 STL -200
$14 FLA -140

I’ll ease into action after being away.

Still on Vacation

This is the first time I've been by a computer the last few days and I probably wont be by one the next 2 days, so I doubt I'll have any games before Wednesday. That was a great pitching duel between Pedro and Lincecum on Thursday, too bas for me Pedro came out on top.

Portfolio: $1016 (10.3% return)
S&P 500: $1016 (10.3% return)

Today's Games

None

CC Dominates, Yankees Win

It took until the 9th inning for the Yankees offense to wake up, but CC pitched well enough anyway, giving up 1 run in 7 and striking out 9. $20 is not too good of a return off $48, but I’ll take it.

Portfolio: $1044 (13.4% return)
S&P 500: $995 (8% return)

Today’s Games

San Francisco (-140) @ Philadelphia (+120)

In the only game I like today Tim Lincecum is matched up against Pedro Martinez. I have written about Lincecum enough that you should know what I think of him. He is coming off an 8 inning, 0 run performance against the Rockies and looks to continue that at Philadelphia. He does not really allow the long ball and that is one of the reasons why I like him here. The Phillies strikeout a decent amount and that’s not good news when facing the major league leader in that category. Also, Lincecum carved them up pretty good last month. Martinez has had 4 starts since being signed by the Phillies and none of them were anything special. He’s also not expected to go deep into games. He’s obviously lost most of his stuff, but his control his still there. Not that it really matters since the Giants make every pitcher look like a control freak. I like the Giants here and look for Lincecum to reach the 10 K mark. What a pitching matchup this would have been if the Pedro of 1999 was facing the Lincecum of today. I would definitely pay to see that one.

I will be out of town from Friday until Tuesday and I’m not sure how much I will be able to update my blog. I generally need some time to look over the games and I’m not sure if I’ll be able to do that. Also, only a week away from football season.

Bets

$28 SF -140

No Action Yesterday

Portfolio: $1024 (11.2% return)
S&P 500: $998 (8.4% return)

Today’s Games

New York Yankees (-240) @ Baltimore (+200)

In the only game I like today CC Sabathia is matched up against Jason Berken. Sabathia is pitching as well as anyone in the game right now, and I look for it to continue. His K rate is elevated and his BB rate is depressed at about the same rate as the last 2 years when we won a CY Young and was a contender for one in less than a half season at Milwaukee. When he gets in the groove he tends to stay there until there is pressure and that’s when he loses his control. He has been a horrible big game pitcher over his career. This game has almost no pressure so his dominance should continue. The youngster Berken does not strikeout too many and gives up a decent amount of hits, so that tells me he’s doesn’t have dominant stuff. The Yankees should have no problem crossing the plate multiple times off him.

The lines are not looking too favorable right now. The favorites are favored by too much and the underdogs are usually youngsters with not a lot of history. I expect this to be the case the rest of the season, so I will be patient and wait for solid favorites or good value underdogs.

Bets

$48 NYY -240

Marlins Lose, Down $15

Josh Johnson had a no hitter until 2 outs in the 6th, then let up 3 runs in the 7th which was enough for the Braves to win behind a solid pitching performance from Kenshin Kawakami. I'm pretty sure Kawakami got me when I bet against him last month when he faced Lincecum. It still looks like he will be bumped out of the rotation for Tim Hudson. This leaves the Braves with the deepest staff of quality pitchers in the game.

Portfolio: $1024 (11.2% return)

S&P 500: $1021 (10.9% return)

Today's Games

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