No Action Yesterday

Portfolio: $915 (-0.7% return)
S&P 500: $1036 (12.5% return)

Today's Games

New York Yankees (-120) @ Philadelphia (+110)

In Game 3 of the World Series Andy Pettitte is matched up against Cole Hamels. Pettitte has pitched well this postseason and wrapped up the ALCS against the Angels last week. Hamels has continued to struggle as he is giving up a higher than normal amount of hits. The Phillies have been really tough at home the last 2 postseasons and the Yankees still look like they are playing tighter than normal. I like the Phillies to take Game 3 at home as I think they are the better all around team and have more confidence.

Bets

$20 PHI +110

Yankees Win - Down $30

Pedro pitched well but Burnett dominated. I did not think Burnett would dominate the Phillies, and I did not think the Phillies would only score 1 run. Game 3 will be interesting with Andy Pettitte facing Cole Hamels. A win last night would have a been a big boost to my portfolio, putting it at $999 (8.5% return), but instead I fall back into the negative. The breakout is coming.

Portfolio: $915 (-0.7% return)
S&P 500: $1066 (15.7% return)

Today's Games

None

Phillies Win - Up $45

Cliff Lee dominated just like he has all postseason and CC finally looked like his old choking self. He did not look sharp at all and he should have given up more runs as he was consistently missing locations and pitching from behind the whole game. I think the Yankees are in some trouble as they looked tight last night and will most likely be that way again tonight.

Portfolio: $945 (2.6% return)
S&P 500: $1043 (13.2% return)

Today's Games

Philadelphia (+180) @ New York Yankees (-200)

In Game 2 of the World Series Pedro Martinez is matched up against AJ Burnett. Both pitchers have been average this postseason with Pedro being a little better. Burnett has good stuff but continues to struggle with control. Pedro has a little left in the tank and his control is still way above average. The Phillies look like they are playing loose and they generally beat up pitchers who can't locate their pitches. I am sticking by my theory that the Yankees seem to be happy just to make the World Series and seem to have no energy left. Combine that with the fact that they looked really tight and I see the Phillies winning easily tonight.

Bets

$30 PHI +180

No Action Yesterday

I was glad to see the NBA season start. I will very rarely bet on NBA games, but I will follow it. This season is going to be one of the better one's in recent history. The NBA is back to having a good product.

Portfolio: $900 (-2.3% return)
S&P 500: $1063 (15.4% return)

Today's Games

Philadelphia (+150) @ New York Yankees (-170)

In Game 1 of the World Series Cliff Lee is matched up against CC Sabathia in what should be a great matchup between two former Indians and CY Young winners. Cliff Lee has been dominant this postseason but has been helped out by a low hit rate. His other indicators are solid. Sabathia has also been dominant and his indicators look solid, but I am still sticking by my theory that he will choke. I also feel like the Yankees are just happy to get to the World Series and gave everything they got to get here. I think the Phillies expected to get here. I would not be surprised to see the Phillies take the Series in 5. I think the Phillies are a great bet tonight at +150.

Bets

$30 PHI +150

No Action Yesterday

Portfolio: $900 (-2.3% return)
S&P 500: $1067 (15.9% return)

Today's Games

None

Horrible Day, 0-4 Down $43

Wow I did not expect that. The Texans could not put the game away in the 3rd and the Dolphins somehow blew the cover. Who knows what is up with Carolina, and the Cowboys looked sharp coming off a bye. For some reason there are more lopsided games in the NFL this year than I can remember. I think it may be due to the quarterbacks. There are a decent amount of good ones and a decent amount of bad ones, with not too many in the middle.

The Yankees advance to the World Series and it should be a good one. I give the edge to the Phillies, and I still believe CC Sabathia will choke.

My chart is not looking too good lately.

Portfolio: $900 (-2.3% return)
S&P 500: $1080 (17.3% return)

Today's Games

None

ALCS Game 6 Postponed

No action last night due to rain, but I still like the Angels at the same odds.

Portfolio: $943 (2.4% return)

S&P 500: $1080 (17.3% return)

Today's Games

Los Angels Angels (+170) @ New York Yankees (-190)

San Francisco @ Houston (-3)

Buffalo @ Carolina (-7)

New Orleans @ Miami (+7)

Atlanta @ Dallas (-4)

See yesterday's post for analysis on the baseball game.

The 49ers/Texans game is a matchup of good defense vs good offense and bad offense vs bad defense. The Texans have an explosive offense and the 49ers have a tough defense. The 49ers get Michael Crabtree, although he probably won't have much of an impact. They also get Frank Gore back, but he may still be limited by his ankle. I like the Texans at home as I do not think the 49ers can hold them for their anemic offense.

The Bills have a lot of problems on offense mainly due to horrible offensive line and quarterback play, and last week they let up over 300 yards rushing in an overtime win against the Jets. They face the Panthers who had two 100 yard backs last week and plan on doing that again this week. I see the Panthers controlling the clock in an easy win. I'll take the Panthers -7.

The Saints have been the best team in the league so far and are coming off an impressive victory over the Giants last week. The Dolphins are coming off a bye and have a tough ball controlling offense and a decent defense. They play very physical style of football that I'm not sure the Saints have seen. The best defense against a high powered offense like the Saints is a ball controlling offense. The Saints have been getting a lot of turnovers this year, averaging around 3 per game, and that has really helped out their offense. The Dolphins do not turn the ball over so I do not expect the Saints to continue getting turnovers. I like the rested Dolphins +7 at home against the talk of the league right now. Another reason why I like this game is because ESPN has been hyping up the Saints.

I like Atlanta in this game as I think they are one of the better teams in the NFC. The Cowboys are falling apart at all levels and I think there is too much pressure on them right now.

Bets

$10 LAA +170

$11 HOU -3

$11 CAR -7

$11 MIA +7

$11 ATL +4

No Action Yesterday

Portfolio: $943 (2.4% return)

S&P 500: $1080 (17.3% return)

Today's Games

Los Angeles Angels (+170) @ New York Yankees (-190)

In Game 6 of the ALCS Joe Saunders is matched up against Andy Pettitte in what should be a great game. Saunders pitched well against the Yankees earlier in the series while Pettitte labored a little. The Angels have been making uncharacteristic mistakes and are having problems scoring runs. The Yankees have been playing loose and seem to be having fun. This game will be a little different and I would not be surprised to see the Yankees a little tighter than normal. I think the Yankees have just a slightly better chance to win, but with the current odds I believe the Angels are a good play.

Bets

$10 LAA +170

No Action Yesterday

The Angels will not go down easily. I thought they were done when the Yankees scored 6 in the top of the 7th, but they fought back.

Portfolio: $943 (2.4% return)
S&P 500: $1093 (18.7% return)

Today's Games

None

Phillies In World Series

My portfolio gained $20 as the Phillies advanced to the World Series. The Yankees will most likely advance too and it will make for a great Series with the edge going to the Phillies.

Portfolio: $943 (2.4% return)
S&P 500: $1082 (17.5% return)

Today's Games

None, although I would not be surprised to see the Angels take this one.

No Action Yesterday

Well the Yankees look like they will be heading to the World Series as they are playing loose and with confidence. The Phillies have a chance to wrap up their series tonight at home with their ace on the mound.

Portfolio: $923 (0.2% return)
S&P 500: $1091 (18.5% return)

Today's Games

Los Angeles Dodgers (+130) @ Philadelphia (-150)

With the Phillies up 3 games to 1 Vicente Padilla is matched up against Cole Hamels. Padilla has been a real find for the Dodgers late in the season and has pitched really well this postseason, but his current success is not sustainable. Hamels has uncharacteristically struggled this postseason but he and the Phillies smell blood and should put the Dodgers away tonight at home.

Bets

$30 PHI -150

Phillies Win - Up $20

I'm back in the black, but I still have a long way to go to catch the surging S&P 500. I'll get there though.

Portfolio: $923 (0.2% return)
S&P 500: $ 1098 (19.2% return)

Today's Games

None

2-1, Up $9

I was surprised the Giants/Saints game didn’t live up to the hype as the Saints dominated from the start, but the other big matchup between the Ravens and Vikings was pretty good. The Jets continued their freefall after ESPN basically anointed them a top team after their 3-0 start. Sanchez really struggled and maybe he really did need another year in college as Pete Carroll said last year. The Eagles laid their typical egg against a team they should blow out, and I put that all on McNabb. The Bengals were outplayed from the start in an obvious let down game. I have no clue what happened to Seattle, but that’s probably the product of Hasselbeck not getting regular reps in practice.

Portfolio: $903 (-2% return)
S&P 500: $1088 (18.1% return)

Today’s Games

Los Angeles Dodgers (+120) @ Philadelphia (-130)

In Game 4 of the NLCS Randy Wolf is matched up against Joe Blanton. Wolf has been pitching bad for at least a month now and I don’t see it turning around. He was lucky not to let up more runs and get the loss against the Cardinals in Game 1 of the NLDS. Blanton struggled down the stretch as his control was bad, but he hasn’t started in a couple weeks and his arm should be fresh. This might be a high scoring game and I like the Phillies to score more runs.

Bets

$26 PHI -130

No Action Yesterday

Portfolio: $894 (-2.9% return)

S&P 500: $1088 (18.1% return)

Today's Games

Los Angeles Dodgers (+160) @ Philadelphia (-170)

Houston @ Cincinnati (-5)

New York Giants @ New Orleans Saints (-3)

In Game 3 of the NLCS Hiroki Kuroda is matched up against Cliff Lee. Kuroda is a solid pitcher who pitched well down the stretch but did not pitch in the NLDS due to an injury. He will be making his first start in 3 weeks today, and could be a little rusty. Lee has been outright dominant in the postseason so far and is showing no signs of letting up. I like the Phillies at home as they should have more than enough firepower this game.

The Texans have a high powered offense and an under average defense and the Bengals have an average offense and an above average defense. The Bengals seem to play to their level of competition and all their games have been close this year. They also struggle on special teams, especially on field goals. If Cincinnati wins this game I do not think it will be a blowout, so the Texans +5 look like a pretty good pick here.

The Giants/Saints game should be a pretty good game, but I think the Giants have the edge. The Saints are not too god coming off bye's and the Giants have a pretty solid defense. Manning has taken his game to a new level with his young receivers and the running game will start to click. The Saints are an elite offensive team, but I still do not think their defense can slow down the Giants. They have been getting a lot of interceptions this year and Manning is pretty good about not throwing any.

Bets

$17 PHI -170

$11 HOU +5

$11 NYG +3

Angels Lose, CC Dominates For A Change

Wow, maybe CC has turned the corner but I still wouldn't be surprised to see him go out and clam up later in this postseason.

Portfolio: $894 (-2.9% return)

S&P 500: $1088 (18.1% return)

Today's Games

None

I will have a couple NFL games tomorrow and possibly the baseball game.

No Action Yesterday

Portfolio: $934 (1.4% return)
S&P 500: $1097 (19.1% return)

Today’s Games

Los Angeles Angels (+150) @ New York Yankees (-170)

After a quiet week I finally see a game I like. John Lackey is matched up against CC Sabathia in Game 1 of the ALCS. Lackey struggled down the stretch of the regular season but pitched great against the Red Sox in the ALDS. His strikeouts and walks were down at the end of the season and in his start against the Red Sox. The strikeouts being down worries me a little but less walks are a good sign. He is a big game pitcher who has had success in the postseason throughout his career. He definitely will not go out and lay an egg. Sabathia was dominant down the stretch of the regular season and dominated the Twins in the ALDS. Believe it or not that was his first dominant postseason start of his career. Being an Indians fan I have seen him pitch most of his career and I can tell you that he is not a big game pitcher. Even in the regular season if there was a big game he wouldn’t deliver. I was actually not that upset when the Indians traded him last year because I knew he has never won the big game and I did not see him turning it around. In all of his previous postseason starts he clams up and loses his control. In 2007 he walked 37 batters in 241 innings, but in the postseason that year he walked 13 in 15 1/3 innings. The Indians probably would have won the World Series that year if CC was somewhat decent. The Angels have a veteran lineup that is aware of CC’s postseason struggles and will make him work. If CC believes this is a big game then he will struggle. I think the Angels at +150 are a great value play. I’m betting my maximum amount of $40, or 4.3%.

Bets

$40 LAA +150

No Action Yesterday

Another slow day in sports and the S&P 500 had a nice day. I am staying away from the baseball game tonight as game 1's are usually unpredictable. Hamels has struggled lately even though his indicators are good but he has pitched well against the Dodgers this year. Kershaw has pitched really well lately after missing some time due to injury. I think this game is a coin flip.

Portfolio: $934 (1.4% return)
S&P 500: $1092 (18.6% return)

Today's Games

None

No Action Yesterday

There was absolutely nothing sports wise on TV last night and not much going on tonight also. Here's something to think about. If you had to make one bet on an NFL game to double up your money would you pick the better team laying the points? I think over 90% of people would do that even though the line is supposed to make the game even. It's hard to bet on the weaker team with the points and that is why most people lose over time on football.

Portfolio: $934 (1.4% return)
S&P 500: $1073 (16.5% return)

Today's Games

None

Miami Wins - Up $10

My prediction was spot on as the Jets defense proved they were not the second coming of the 2000 Ravens. Henne outplayed Sanchez and the Dolphins controlled the clock. The media and ESPN have made Vegas a lot of money over the years by over-hyping teams.

And what a baseball game last night as the Phillies won it at the end again. The postseason has not been that entertaining so far, but I am looking forward the the LCS's.

Portfolio: $934 (1.4% return)
S&P 500: $1076 (16.8% return)

Today's Games

None

2 Wins, Up $20

It's about time my portfolio makes a gain as my free fall can be seen in the chart below. My NFL picks should start to be decent now that I have a better feel for the season. I am back in the black, but still have a ways to go to catch the S&P 500. I bet I will catch up to the S&P over the next month or so.

Portfolio: $924 (0.3% return)
S&P 500: $1071 (16.3% return)



Today's Games

NY Jets @ Miami (+3)

The Jets are getting all the hype and the Dolphins have lost their starting QB for the season. The Jets are not as good as the East Coast biased media have made them out to be. The Dolphins have a ball controlling offense that should do it's job against an over hyped defense. Just by following the media the 1 1/2 opening line and the current line at 3 would make this a no brainer to pick the Jets, and that's the reason why I like the Dolphins plus the points in this game.

Bets

$11 MIA +3

No Action Yesterday

I didn't get around to updating my blog yesterday, but I was not going to pick any games anyway since I'm on a cold streak. I can't seem to get one break, but that's how it goes in sports betting. You just have to stay consistent and not loose your cool and things will eventually turn around. I'm staying away from baseball today as I have missed all my postseason picks so far, but there should be some good games today.

Portfolio: $904 (-1.8% return)

S&P 500: $1071 (16.3% return)

Today's Games

Cleveland @ Buffalo (-6)

Cincinnati @ Baltimore (-9)

The Browns are not as bad you think and they seem to be playing with more enthusiasm now that they have their better QB starting. The Browns also have one of the better special teams and Buffalo has one of the worst coverage units. I look for the Browns to pull this one out and Trent Edwards to get benched, so I'll take the 6 points.

Cincinnati and Baltimore have the same record but for some reason the Ravens are favored by 9 at home. They are not that much better than the Bengals and the Bengals defense has been really solid this year. Flacco is not at an elite level and I look for him to struggle a little today. The Bengals are playing with a pride this year and even if they lose I do not think it will be by more than 9 points.

Bets

$11 CLE +6

$11 CIN +9

Red Sox Lose – Down $22

Portfolio: $934 (1.4% return)
S&P 500: $1065 (15.6% return)

Today’s Games

Minnesota (+260) @ New York Yankees (-310)
Boston (-100) @ Los Angeles Angels (-110)

In the first game Nick Blackburn is matched up against A.J. Burnett. Blackburn has been really solid lately as he has had pinpoint control, walking only 1 in his last 27 1/3 innings. He will not strikeout many,( 4.29 K/9) gives up more than a hit per inning and is a fly ball pitcher that gives up home runs. But he has been really effective as of late as he has upped his K’s a good amount and has only had one bad start in his last nine. Burnett is an erratic pitcher that has been throwing well lately, although he doesn’t hesitate to give out the free pass. I have a feeling that Blackburn will frustrate the veteran Yankee lineup as he seems to be hitting his spots. I am not that worried that this is his first postseason game because the Twins have been playing like they have been in the postseason for the past month. The Twins are one of the hottest teams in baseball and I think they will rally back and make a good series. Blackburn is coming off a start in which he outdueled Zack Greinke, the probable American League CY Young winner, in a must win game. This is a good value play.

In the second game Josh Beckett is matched up against Jered Weaver. Beckett’s indicators aren’t the best lately as his hits and walks are up a little, but his strikeouts are there. Weaver has been throwing well lately and his indicators are right in line with his season averages. Beckett is a proven big game pitcher and I don’t think he’ll let his team go down 0-2.

Bets

$10 MIN +260
$20 BOS -100

Rough Day, 0-2 and Down $50

My free fall continues, but things will turn around.

Portfolio: $956 (3.8% return)

S&P 500: $1058 (14.9% return)

Today's Games

Boston (-110) @ Los Angeles Angels (-110)

In the only game I like today Jon Lester is matched up against John Lackey. Lester is probably the best left handed starter in the playoffs and he has been dominant in the second half on the season. He has had one bad start in the last 2 months and his indicators are really strong. Lackey is a solid veteran pitcher who has struggled lately. His hit rate is up and it has been slightly up all year which means he may be losing a little, but not too much to get worried. I like Boston to take game 1 as Lester is the more stable option.

Bets

$22 BOS

Great Game Last Night

The Tigers/Twins game last night was one of the better baseball games I’ve seen in a while and that got me pumped up for the playoffs.

Portfolio: $1006 (9.2% return)
S&P 500: $1055 (14.5% return)

Today’s Games

Colorado (+120) @ Philadelphia (-140)
St. Louis (-150) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (+130)

In the first game Ubaldo Jimenez is matched up against Cliff Lee. Jimenez went 15-12 with a 3.47 ERA this season and is a very unique pitcher. He is a flamer thrower and a heavy ground ball pitcher. I do not believe anyone has the combined strikeout and ground ball ratios he does. Over his last 4 starts he is fanning 12.35 batters per nine and that is about the highest you’ll see from any pitcher. By being a heavy ground ball pitcher he keeps the ball in the park, giving up only 13 homeruns in 218 innings. His problem is walks, and he has struggled with those lately. His walk rate per nine over his last 4 starts is 4.78 compared to his 3.51 season average. Jimenez also was also successful in the postseason 2 years ago, posting a 2.25 ERA in 16 innings. Lee was unhittable in his first month with the Phillies but has been pretty average as of late. His indicators are strong, but he has struggled with a high hit rate all season and that’s not good when facing a really good hitting lineup. Lee has no previous postseason experience and really hasn’t pitched in too many big games in his career. Some pitchers take off running in these situations, but most have a learning curve. I look for the Rockies to take game 1 as Jimenez should be able to take away the Phillies biggest strength, the long ball.

In the second game Chris Carpenter is matched up against Randy Wolf. Carpenter will probably win the National League CY Young and has only had one hiccup in the second half. His indicators look solid so he should give his team a good chance to win. His career postseason numbers are really good, going 5-1 with a 2.53 ERA. Wolf has been the Dodgers most consistent starter all year long. He improved his walk rate, but what really helped him was a low hit rate. His low hit rate was not caused by an increased ground ball rate so it was most likely due to better defense, a new pitch and luck. Over his last 4 starts his indicators are really weak even though he posted a 3.33 ERA. His ERA is will rise if he continues to pitch like he has been, and that’s not good news when facing the Cardinals and Chris Carpenter. Wolf has no postseason experience and looks to be tiring down the stretch. I like the Cardinals to win game 1 pretty easy.

Bets

$20 COL +120
$30 STL -150

No Action Yesterday

It should be an interesting one game playoff today between the Tigers and Twins. I think the game can go either way even though the Twins are -170 favorites. Porcello has struggled in the Metrodome as most ground ball pitchers do, but Baker has also struggled against the Tigers with the exception of his last start on Thursday. Baker also has been walking too many batters lately and that's his strength. I'd say this game is a coin flip.

Portfolio: $1006 (9.2% return)

S&P 500: $1040 (12.9 % return)

Today's Games

None

1-2, Down $23

I’m not off to a good start betting on the NFL, going 1-3 so far. I should stick to my theory of no team is as good or as bad as you think.

Portfolio: $1006 (9.2% return)
S&P 500: $1025 (11.3% return)

Today’s Games

None

Royals Lose

Blackburn out dueled Greinke and the Twins are now tied with the Tigers for first in the American League Central. Greinke looked to be on his way to a dominant complete game performance but he fell apart in the 6th. My portfolio takes another hit as the end of the regular baseball season is taking it's toll on me.

I am starting my football analysis this week but that will take at least a few weeks to see if there are any findings. I have an idea to see if I can find statistical indicators like I do in baseball.

Portfolio: $1029 (11.7% return)

S&P 500: $1025 (11.3% return)

Today's Games

Detroit @ Chicago (-10)

Tampa Bay @ Washington (-7.5)

Buffalo @ Miami (-1)

The Lions are coming off their first win in over a year, but they are still a pretty bad team that struggles to move the ball and stop the ball. Chicago should put them back in their place this week.

Tampa Bay is starting second year quarterback Josh Johnson for the first time and he should really struggle against a solid defense. Washington's offense has been able to move the ball this year but have failed to get in the end zone consistently.

Buffalo is a decent team that should start to find ways to score. They have a solid defense and Miami should be pretty weak offensively today with Chad Henne at quarterback.

Bets

$11 CHI -10

$22 WAS -7.5

$11 BUF -1

No Action Yesterday

It was an interesting day in baseball yesterday as the Tigers and Dodgers couldn't wrap up their divisions. The Dodgers are already in the playoffs and are just looking to get home field advantage, so it's not that big of a deal for them. The Tigers on the other hand might be a little nervous now as their lead is only 1 game with 2 to go, but they have to like the fact that the Twins are facing Zack Greinke who is determined to lock up the CY Young. It will be interesting.

Portfolio: $1055 (14.5 % return)

S&P 500: $1025 (11.3% return)

Today's Games

Kansas City (-130) @ Minnesota (+120)

In the only game today Zack Greinke is matched up against Nick Blackburn. Greinke is out to prove he's the best pitcher in the American League and help eliminate the Twins from the post season. Greinke has been dominant as of late and basically the whole season. His walks are a little up recently, but his other indicators are strong. Blackburn is pitching in the biggest game of his career and has been on top of his game lately, going 2-0 with a 1.33 ERA in his last 3 starts. He is a typical Twins pitcher as he pitches to contact, walks very few, and is not a ground ball pitcher although he does get a few more ground balls than fly balls. There is no significant variances in his indicators lately, and the fact that he hasn't been letting up runs tells me he's due to start giving up some. I believe this will be a low scoring affair and Greinke will try to go the distance in his last start of the season.

Bet

$26 KC -130

No Action Yesterday

I most likely will not be betting on any baseball games the rest of the regular season, but you can bet that I will be betting on the playoffs. I'll take a look at the Zack Greinke matchup tomorrow as he is trying to lock up the CY Young. I doubt I’ll have any college football games, but check back on Sunday to see NFL picks.

An interesting stat: Tim Lincecum did not allow a home run at home this season, a span of 124.1 innings pitched. He is just insane.

Portfolio: $1055 (14.5% return)
S&P 500: $1030 (11.8% return)

Today’s Games

None

Detroit Beats Tigers 7-2

Carl Pavano got roughed up for the first time this year against the Tigers while Eddie Bonine's luck continued. Bonine should have given up more than 2 runs in 5 innings considering he allowed 9 base runners. But once again this is why it's tough to bet at the end of the season. You almost have to treat it like college football and go with momentum as stats don't matter as much. Through this little cold streak my portfolio has dipped below the S&P 500.

Portfolio: $1055 (14.5% return)

S&P 500: $ 1057 (14.8% return)

Today's Games

None