Monday, January 25, 2010

Forgot To Update Yesterday

Sorry that I forgot to update yesterday. By the time I remembered the second game was already starting. I would have basically broke even as I liked both underdogs yesterday. The Super Bowl will be good and right now I am leaning with the Colts -5. The Saints got lucky yesterday as they recovered 3 fumbles, and that Favre decided to throw across the field instead of run. But before that play there was no excuse for them to have 12 guys in the huddle, and before that it seemed like Childress was fine with settling for a 50 yard field goal to win the game. I would probably lay most of the blame on Childress. Horrible end of game management. The Saints have been getting a lot of turnovers this year, and that is kind of a fluke stat. The Rams were like that in 1999 when they won the Super Bowl. The whole season I have waiting for the Saints to stop getting fluke turnovers, but it has not happened so maybe it is really their year. But I have to think the Colts will protect the ball. And I can almost guarantee that next year the Saints will not force as many turnovers as they have this year. After the Super Bowl, I probably won't have any bets until baseball season.

Portfolio: $859 (-6.7% return)
S&P 500: $1092 (18.6% return)

Today's Games

None

Monday, January 18, 2010

Wow, Chargers Lose to Jets! Down Another $10

Looks like I can really pick'em this playoffs. Usually I do well in the playoffs, but not this year. I really thought the Chargers would win the Super Bowl, but now I think it's up in the air. The games next week should be good. Looks like I have dug myself a deep hole in trying to catch the S&P 500. The S&P 500 hasn't really moved much in the last couple months, so at least it's not that far out of reach.

Portfolio: $859 (-6.7% return)
S&P 500: $1136 (23.3% return)

Today's Games

None

Sunday, January 17, 2010

Warner Gets Roughed Up, Cardinals Lose - Down $10

The Saints came out firing and did not let up. It was almost as if there was no defense out there for the Cardinals.

Portfolio: $869 (-5.6% return)
S&P 500: $1136 (23.3% return)

Today's Games

NY Jets @ San Diego (-9)

I've been wrong most of this NFL season so I'm not sure if my reasons even matter, but I think the Chargers will dominate this game against Jets. I can't wait for baseball season.

Bets

$11 SD -9

Saturday, January 16, 2010

NFL Playoffs

Portfolio: $880 (-4.5% return)
S&P 500: $1136 (23.3% return)

Today's Games

Arizona @ New Orleans (-7)

A hot Kurt Warner in a dome vs. a team that seems to have lost most of it's momentum? I'll take the 7 points here. I think the Saints will probably win, but I think it'll be a struggle. It might take a quarter or two for them to get in a rhythm. The Cardinals on the other hand are as hot as you can be on offense, but their defense looks like it has a lot of holes. This should be a good game. I really don't know what to think about the Ravens/Colts game, but I think the Colts will win.

Bets

$11 ARI +7

Sunday, January 10, 2010

NFL Playoffs

So I did like the Cowboys last night but I forgot to update my blog. I think the Cowboys might be the team to beat in the NFC with the way their defense is playing. I'm interested to see what the line will be in their game next week against the Vikings. I do not like any games today, although I was thinking about taking the Patriots -4, but both teams have been so up and down this season I cannot get a read. In the other game between the Packers and Cardinals I have no clue what to expect, but it should be a good game to watch.

Portfolio: $880 (-4.5% return)
S&P 500: $1145 (24.3% return)

Today's Games

None

Wednesday, January 6, 2010

Iowa Dominates, Down $20

I couldn't be more off on my prediction of that game last night. Georgia Tech could not do anything on offense, and Iowa looked really good all around. I can't seem to break above the $921 mark, but hopefully I can do it this weekend with the NFL playoffs.

Porfolio: $880 (-4.5% return)
S&P 500: $1137 (23.5% return)

Today's Games

None

Tuesday, January 5, 2010

Boise Wins, Up $10

That was a pretty good defensive battle last night. I've always thought Boise was a fun team to watch. They execute so well.

Portfolio: $900 (-2.3% return)
S&P 500: $1133 (23% return)

Today’s Games

Iowa @ Georgia Tech (-5)

The Yellow Jackets have a very unique style with their option run attack and Iowa has not faced this style all year. Generally when teams face a unique style for the first time they struggle. Even a month of practice will not prepare the Hawkeyes for this attack. Georgia Tech also has the most plays of over 50 yards of anyone in college football. They don’t pass that much, but when they do they strike big as they have one of the best receivers in the country. This game will be a blowout in favor of the Yellow Jackets.

Bets

$22 GT -5

Monday, January 4, 2010

3-2, Down $14

I won the wrong games. I don’t know why I didn’t bet all the same. Oh well, I think I will fare decent in the playoffs. I do like the Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl tonight in my first college football game of the year. I also like Georgia Tech in Tuesdays Orange Bowl.

Portfolio: $890 (-3.4% return)
S&P 500: $1115 (21.1% return)

Today’s Games

Boise St. @ TCU (-8)

The Broncos are probably the most fundamentally sound college football team and they are not afraid of the big stage. I think this will be a good game and eight points is a lot.

Bets

$11 Boise St. +8

Sunday, January 3, 2010

NFL Today

This is the toughest week to bet in the NFL. The first two weeks are tough, but this is really tough. But I do like a couple of games today. I need to get past the break even point of $921 today, and I usually do well in the playoffs so hopefully this is the start of a little run.

Portfolio: $904 (-1.8% return)
S&P 500: $1115 (21.1% return)

Today's Games

Indianapolis @ Buffalo (-8)
Jacksonville @ Cleveland (-2)
Washington @ San Diego (-3.5)
Tennessee @ Seattle (+6)
Cincinnati @ NY Jets (-10)

I like the favorite in all the games above. The Colts will be playing like this is a preseason game plus the weather will be cold and snowy. The Colts are not a cold weather running team, so I expect them to lose big. The Jaguars are basically out of the playoffs and the Browns have been one of the hotter teams in the NFL lately. The weather will be about the same as in Buffalo and I just don't think the Jaguars will be up for this game. The Redskins are a hopeless team playing all the way on the west coast. I don't care if the Chargers play their backups, they should still win easily. Chris Johnson is trying to get to 2000 yards rushing so the Titans will have something to play for. The Bengals will be playing like it's a preseason game and the Jets need to win. This game will be lopsided.

Bets

$11 BUF -8
$11 CLE -2
$22 SD -3.5
$22 TEN -6
$11 NYJ -10