Wednesday, June 30, 2010

Mariners Win, Up $15

Cliff Lee pitched his 3rd straight complete game and the Mariners scored a few runs for him to give me one of my first winning days in a while. I will be on vacation the next week so don't look for any new posts until after Thursday next week. With the way the stock market is looking I might gain some ground on the S&P 500 by staying put.

Portfolio: $773 (-16.1% return)
S&P 500: $1031 (11.9% return)

Today's Games

None

Tuesday, June 29, 2010

1-2, Down $12 from Sunday

And the losing continues.

Portfolio: $758 (-17.7% return)
S&P 500: $1039 (12.8% return)

Today’s Games

Seattle (+150) @ NY Yankees (-160)

In my only game Cliff Lee is matched up against Phil Hughes. Lee has been spectacular this year with a 2.39 ERA and 4 complete games, but his record is only 6-3. This is just another example of how wins and losses are a fluke stat. Lee’s strikeout rate is the second highest of his career and almost a full batter per nine higher than the last 2 years, which were his best. All of his indicators are actually a little better than his 2008 CY Young year. He has only walked 4 batters in 86 2/3 innings. He is coming off back to back complete games and all signs are pointing in the right direction for him to continue. Hughes has good stuff and solid indicators. He got off to a great start and then stumbled a little. He is coming off a skipped start due to workload concerns, and I’m not sure how he’ll react. I know the Mariners offense is horrible, but I’m not sure what the Yankees will get out of Hughes in this start. I’ll take a leading CY Young candidate at +150 odds any day.

Bets

$10 SEA +150

Sunday, June 27, 2010

Can't Get Much Worse

I am just stuck in a bad streak, but it won't last.

Portfolio: $770 (-16.4% return)
S&P 500: $1078 (17% return)

Today's Games

San Diego (-100) @ Florida (-110)
Minnesota (-100) @ NY Mets (-110)
Boston (+110) @ San Francisco (-120)

In the first game Mat Latos is matched up against Anibal Sanchez. Latos has been a top pitcher in the National League this year and his strikeout, walk, and hit rate all look like the real deal. His hit rate may be a little low, but even if that corrects he is still top notch. There is no signs of him slowing down. Sanchez is having a decent year at 7-4 with a 3.30 ERA, but his indicators show he's just an average pitcher. His ERA should probably be more towards 4 instead of 3. I like the Padres at even money with their young stub on the mound.

In the second game Scott Baker is matched up against Jonathon Niese. Baker has a very good strikeout to walk ratio, but he gives up a lot of fly balls so his hit rate is up plus he gives up a decent amount of extra base hits including home runs. If he can learn to get some ground balls he will become a good pitcher pretty fast. Niese is a youngster that has some potential. His indicators look pretty average, and the fact that he's young means he will be inconsistent. He was just rocked his last time out, so his confidence might be a little shot. I like Baker to throw a quality game versus a National League lineup.

In the third game Jon Lester is matched up against Tim Lincecum in what should be a great game. Both pitchers are top notch and both teams and playing well. Other than Lincecum having slightly better stuff these pitchers are very similar. Lincecum is really tough to beat at home and that is the only reason while I'll lean with the Giants in this one.

Bets

$10 SD -100
$10 MIN -100
$12 SF -120

Wednesday, June 23, 2010

Two Games Thursday

Portfolio: $794 (-13.8 % return)
S&P 500: $1092 (18.6% return)

Today's Games (6/24)

Cleveland (+140) @ Philadelphia (-160)
St. Louis (-140) @ Toronto (+120)

In the first game a rejuvenated Fausto Carmona is matched up against a struggling Joe Blanton. Carmona looks like the 2007 version that was in the CY Young talks and helped lead the Tribe to the ALCS. He is basically just throwing the ball over the plate and letting his power sinker work. He has one of the best sinkers in the game, and he has only walked 1 batter in his last 15 innings. Blanton has been serving meatballs this year and his ERA over his last 3 starts is 10.20. He was never a strikeout pitcher, but his strikeouts are down a decent amount from last year. He is not walking more than usual, it just looks like he is throwing the ball right down the middle of the plate. I will go with the momentum in this game and take the Tribe.

In the second game Adam Wainwright is matched up against Brandon Morrow. Wainwright is one of the best pitchers in the National League and also one of the most underrated. His indicators are as strong as ever and he has been cruising this whole season. Morrow has a lot of potential and can rack up strikeouts, but he has trouble finding the strike zone. This leads to too many base runners and he is not good enough to overcome that. A team like the Cardinals should be patient and drive up his pitch count, so don't see him going deep into the game. I think the Cardinals at -140 are a good value.

Bets

$10 CLE +140
$14 STL -140

Sunday, June 20, 2010

Win One, Lose One - Down $3

Josh Johnson continued his dominance and the Cleveland bullpen managed to blow another game. I just can't seem to get a streak going this year, but it should come.

Portfolio: $794 (-13.8% return)
S&P 500: $1118 (21.4% return)

Today's Games

None

Two Games Sunday

Portfolio: $797 (-13.5% return)
S&P 500: $1118 (21.4% return)

Today's Games

Tampa Bay (+110) @ Florida (-120)
Cleveland (-130) @ Pittsburgh (+120)

In the first game David Price is matched up against Josh Johnson. Price is having a really good season with a 10-2 record and a 2.31 ERA, but he is struggling with his control lately. He is allowing way too many base runners and that will eventually come back to bite him. He has walked 8 batters in his last 11 innings but has only given up 3 runs. That is not going to last. Josh Johnson is having the best season of anyone not named Jimenez, and he doesn't look like he's slowing down anytime soon. I know Hanley might not play, but the Marlins can still hit and with this game being played in the National League I think that gives an advantage to Florida.

In the second game Justin Masterson is matched up against the rookie Brad Lincoln. Masterson seems to be putting things together lately even though his overall numbers do not show that. He throws one of the hardest sinkers in the game and can get some strikeouts when he's on. His problem is walks, but he has only walked 4 batters in his last 16 innings so that tells me he is locked in. If he can ever learn to throw strikes consistently he can be a top of the rotation starter. Brad Lincoln is making his third career start and things have not gone well for him. he allowed 5 runs in 6 innings in both starts, and he is not striking anyone out. I think Masterson will throw a pretty good game today and I think the Indians can score a decent amount of runs.

Bets

$12 FLA -120
$13 CLE -130

Friday, June 18, 2010

Wow That Was Ugly

0-2 and down $30. Liriano pitched well except for the first inning, but it didn't matter since Ubaldo continued his dominance. And in the other game both pitchers were sloppy, but Haren was a little worse that Lackey. This hasn't been a good season for me so far.

Portfolio: $797 (-13.5% return)
S&P 500: $1116 (21.2% return)

Today's Games

None

Thursday, June 17, 2010

2 Games Today

Portfolio: $827 (-10.2% return)
S&P 500: $1109 (20.4% return)

Today's Games

Colorado (-120) @ Minnesota (+100)
Arizona (+130) @ Boston (-150)

In the first game Ubaldo Jimenez is matched up against Francisco Liriano in what should be a great game. Jimenez has been the best pitcher in baseball so far and Liriano has really stepped it up as of late and looks like his 2006 self. Jimenez hasn't been great lately though. He is walking way too many. Liriano has been on fire lately and is probably pitching better than anyone in baseball. I like the Twins getting even money.

In the second game Dan Haren is matched up against John Lackey. Haren has probably suffered through the worst luck out of any pitcher this year. His indicators are amazing, so he should start to heat up. Lackey looks like he has lost some stuff. His K's are down considerably and his walks are up. Since his K's are down his hits are up and that is not surprising. Usually those two stats work that way. He has gotten his walks under control lately, but that still does not impress me. I like Haren to pitch strong as the underdog and I just hope the bullpen doesn't blow it.

Bets

$20 MIN +100
$10 ARI +130

Tuesday, June 8, 2010

No Games This Week

I will not be posting any games until next week.

Wednesday, June 2, 2010

Win One, Lose Two, Down $9

My portfolio is heading the wrong way lately due to some tough luck. Hamels gave up 3 runs in the 1st, then there was a rain delay and he never came back out while Hudson continued to pitch. Talk about bad luck and a big mismatch. Haren threw his best game of the year, but his offense could not support him as Ely threw well also.

Portfolio: $827 (-10.2% return)
S&P 500: $1071 (16.3% return)

Today's Games

None