Monday, August 30, 2010

Oakland Lost Friday, Down $20

Portfolio: $745 (-19.1% return)
S&P 500: $1049 (13.9% return)

Today's Games (Tuesday 8/31)

St. Louis (-160) @ Houston (+140)

In the only game I like today Chris Carpenter is matched up against Wandy Rodriguez. Carpenter is having a great year at 14-4 with a 2.93 ERA, but he has not been himself lately. His record and ERA might not show, but his indicators are something to keep an eye on. His strikeouts are down and his hits are up. Usually hits being up is just bad luck, but when you add in that strikeouts are down that tells me that his stuff is not as good as usual. He might turn it around, but I wouldn't be surprised if he struggles a little in this game. Throw in the fact that his road numbers are not as good as home too. Rodriguez has probably been the hottest starter in the NL since the All-Star break and has gone 1-1 with a 1.67 ERA in his last 4 starts. His indicators are rock solid, so as long as he doesn't all of a sudden lose his dominant curve ball I look for him to keep it up. I like the Astros as the underdog against a struggling Cardinals team.

Bet

$10 HOU +140

Thursday, August 26, 2010

0-2 on Tuesday, Down $22

This has been a rough season. I haven't been able to get on a roll.

Portfolio: $765 (-16.9% return)
S&P 500: $1047 (13.7% return)

Today's Games (Friday 8/27)

Oakland (+120) @ Texas (-140)

In the only game today Brett Anderson is matched up against Tommy Hunter. Anderson has been on the DL most of the year with elbow issues, but he seems to be okay. If he is healthy he has a chance to become one of the best lefties in the game. He has a good fastball and curve ball and he is accurate. He can rack up the strikeouts and is also a ground ball pitcher. That's a pretty good formula for success. Hunter is an average major league pitcher at best and I really don't know how he has a 3.68 ERA. He doesn't miss many bats so that tells me his stuff is below average. He is good at throwing strikes, but it looks like he is benefiting from a low hit rate. I still think there's a chance Oakland can make a push on Texas, and it all starts here. I like the A's as the underdog with one of the more underrated young pitchers on the mound.

Bet

$20 OAK +120

Monday, August 23, 2010

Two For Tuesday

Portfolio: $787 (-14.5% return)
S&P 500: $1067 (15.9% return)

Today's Games (Tuesday 8/24)

Florida (-120) @ New York Mets (-100)
Minnesota (+120) @ Texas (-140)

In the first game Josh Johnson is matched up against R.A. Dickey. Johnson is a top candidate for the NL CY Young but has hit a little rough patch, but is coming of an 8 inning, 2 run performance. He's just been giving up a high number of hits, which most likely means it's just luck and that it will turn around. The knuckleballer Dickey is having a career year and the main reason why is his control. His walks are really low for a knuckleballer and his pitches have been moving just enough to keep hitters from squaring it up. But as with all knuckleballers you never know what your going to get since it's such a feel pitch. Both teams have been playing about the same recently and are within one game of each other. I'll take my chances with Johnson and what I think are pretty good odds.

In the second game Carl Pavano is matched up against Colby Lewis. Pavano was having a career year until recently where he is just giving up a lot of hits. His indicators are almost identical to his great 2004 season. His control is pinpoint and he mainly just lets the defense behind him do his job. But like I said a lot of balls have been finding green over his last few starts, but that will not last as things always even out. Lewis is a top candidate for comeback player of the year. He came out of nowhere, ok Japan, to put up a great season so far. His indicators are pretty darn good considering what was expected of him this season. He has been strong as of late but has been the tough luck loser in 3 of his last 4 starts. I think this will start to wear on him against a solid Twins team that has been hot. Texas looks like they might be starting to slip a little, so I like Pavano to rebound and the Twins as the underdog.

Bets

$12 FLA -120
$10 MIN +120

Saturday, August 14, 2010

Yankees Win Thursday, Up $10

Portfolio: $787 (-14.5% return)
S&P 500: $1079 (17.2% return)

Today's Games

None

Wednesday, August 11, 2010

A's Lose a Pitching Duel, Down $10

Brett Anderson pitched pretty well, definitely well enough to win, but Felix Hernandez was great as the Mariners won 2-0. On the positive side I only bet $10.

Portfolio: $777 (-15.6% return)
S&P 500: $1089 (18.2% return)

Today's Games (Thursday 8/12)

New York Yankees (-230) @ Kansas City (+190)

In the only game today CC Sabathia is matched up against Bruce Chen. Sabathia has been decent this year, but not as dominant as in the past. I believe this is due to that fact that he knows he is going to be pitching a lot of innings and in the post season so he is saving himself. This is when he has kicked it into gear the last couple of years, and I expect him to do the same this year. With the Yankees lineup he does not have to go out and throw a gem, and he knows that. His indicators are average even though he is 14-5 with a 3.14 ERA. Bruce Chen is having an average season for himself. He is an average major league pitcher who will generally keep his team in the game. But this start he is facing an All-Star team so I don't think that will be the case. I'm not sure why the Yankees are only favored at -230 because I think they should be more towards -300. The Yankees with CC on the mound are a good value play. Hopefully I can make up that $10 easily on this game.

Bets

$23 NYY -230

Monday, August 9, 2010

Shields Gets Hammered, Rays Lose - Down $28

Wow, I can't believe how off I was on that game. I guess a home run pitcher against a home run hitting lineup is not the best matchup for the pitcher.

Portfolio: $787 (-14.5% return)
S&P 500: $1128 (22.5% return)

Today's Games (Tuesday 8/10)

Oakland (+120) @ Seattle (-140)

In the only game I like Tuesday Brett Anderson is matched up against Felix Hernandez. Anderson is making his 3rd start since coming off the DL with an elbow injury. That was his second time on the DL for his elbow, and that's usually not a good sign. He struggled in his first outing back and was pretty good in his second. He has some really good stuff and when healthy I think he can be one of the best left handers in the game. He looks a little out of shape, so if we ever decides to take care of his body it will make him that much better. Hernandez is an ace, but his struggling lately. His strikeouts are down and his walks are up. I start to wonder if he's lost interest just like Ichiro has since the team is so bad. Their offense is just anemic. Oakland is playing well recently and is still in the AL West race, so if Anderson's elbow holds up he should have a good outing. I like them as the underdog in this game.

Bets

$10 OAK +120

Saturday, August 7, 2010

2-1, but Even

I was one inning away from being 3-0 and up $42, but Matt Lindstrom of the Astros let up 4 runs in the bottom of the 9th against the Brewers to blow the game. Oh well, at least I didn't lose any ground.

Portfolio: $815 (-11.5% return)
S&P 500: $1122 (21.8% return)

Today's Games

Tampa Bay (-140) @ Toronto (+130)

In the only game today James Shields is matched up against Brad Mills. Shields is coming off a dominant performance against the Yankees and has been great as of late. He really has been good all year long, but just suffered through some bad luck in the middle of the season. His indicators are the best on the awesome Rays staff, and his only weakness is home runs. His indicators show that he should keep on rolling against the Blue Jays. I know the Blue Jays are the top home run hitting team in the majors, but I think Shields is too much in a zone right now for that to matter. Mills is making his 4th career start and is coming off an impressive start against the Orioles, but that was against the Orioles. I expect him to struggle against the Rays today. I like the Rays in a max bet.

Bets

$28 TB -140

Thursday, August 5, 2010

Phillies Pull It Out In 10, Up $30

Roy Oswalt pitched great through six and then the wheels kind of came off, and Volstad labored through 5 2/3, allowing 8 hits and walking 3 but somehow only allowed 2 runs.

Portfolio: $815 (-11.5% return)
S&P 500: $1126 (22.3% return)

Today's Games

Colorado (-150) @ Pittsburgh (+130)
Los Angeles Angels (-100) @ Detroit (-120)
Houston (+110) @ Milwaukee (-130)

In the first game Jason Hammel is matched up against Zah Duke. Hammel is slowly becoming one of the most underrated pitchers in the game. He has good stuff and doesn't have trouble finding the strike zone. He has pitched pretty well as of late but has had some bad luck, going 0-3 with a 5.33 ERA in his last 4 starts. He probably should have a win or two and an ERA in the 3's. Facing a young Pirates lineup for the first time should change his luck. Duke is a borderline major league starter and can have the occasional lefty dominant performance, but I don't think he'll do it against a good hitting Rockies lineup. He really struggles and is probably more suited for the bullpen. I like the Rockies.

In the second game Jered Weaver is matched up against Justin Verlander. Weaver leads the AL in strikeouts and is having his best season as a pro, and his indicators back it up. I would classify him as a legitimate ace now. Verlander hasn't been as dominant this year as last. His strikeouts are down and his walks are up. He is having some decent control problems as of late and until he fixes that things will not go well. The Angels have a good hitting team and I think this will be a good pitching duel, but with the Tigers in a free fall lately I like the Angels.

In the third game red hot Wandy Rodriguez is matched up against Dave Bush. Rodriguez has been on fire as he has not allowed a run in his last 2 starts. He has great command of the strike zone and it looks like his curve is working again. He has one of the best curve balls in the league, and I look for him to continue his run of dominance. Bush on the other hand has been getting tagged lately. It almost looks like he's been throwing batting practice, but it also looks like he has been the victim of bad luck. His luck will eventually turn around for the better, but I don't think it will matter because Rodriguez should have another dominant performance against a strikeout prone Brewers team. I like the Astros and I can't figure why they are the underdogs. I am going to put a little more on them.

Bets

$15 COL -150
$10 LAA -100
$20 HOU +110

Wednesday, August 4, 2010

One Game Thursday

Portfolio: $785 (-14.8% return)
S&P 500: $1127 (22.4% return)

Today's Game (Thursday 8/5)

Philadelphia (-130) @ Florida (+110)

In the only game today Roy Oswalt is matched up against Chris Volstad. Oswalt is looking to bounce back after a poor start in his debut with the Phillies. Looking at his numbers it looks like he is mainly getting unlucky. He is giving up a high amount of hits, and that will eventually change because his strikeouts and walks are the same. This tells me that his stuff is still there. Volstad is coming off 2 average starts, but it looks like he got lucky. His ERA over those starts is 4.09, but his WHIP is 1.64. His ERA should be above 5. He is struggling to miss bats and can't seem to find the strike zone. He has walked 6 in his last 11 innings. If he keeps that up he will not last too long against Philly, even with Howard and Victorino out. I like the Phillies with a max bet (5%).

Bet

$39 PHI -130

Tuesday, August 3, 2010

2-0, Up $24

The Reds took care of business as Travis Wood was dominant and the Astros won even though Jake Westbrook was solid in his major league debut.

Portfolio: $785 (-14.8% return)
S&P 500: $1120 (21.6% return)

Today's Games

None

Sunday, August 1, 2010

1-1 on Sunday, Up $6

Both games didn't go as I thought, and the Phillies had to pull out the game in extra innings. Cole Hamels was just unlucky Sunday afternoon. He allowed just 6 base runners (all hits) in 7 innings and struck out 10, but allowed 4 runs (2 on a Dunn HR). Lannan on the other hand allowed 8 base runners in 5 innings but only gave up 2 runs. Usually those numbers would be switched, but that's baseball. In the other game Johnson threw a dud for the first time in months and Garland held his own and showed why he is the ace of the staff. At least I'm up $6 since I decided the put more money on the Phillies.

Portfolio: $761 (-17.4% return)
S&P 500: $1102 (19.7% return)

Today's Games (Monday 8/2)

Cincinnati (-170) @ Pittsburgh (+150)
Houston (+140) @ St. Louis (-160)

In the first game rookie Travis Wood is matched up against Ross Ohlendorf. Wood has been phenominal ever since getting called up a month and a half ago, going 1-1 with a 2.87 ERA over 6 starts. He has been the victim of some bad luck in the wins column, but his indicators are rock solid for a rookie. Ohlendorf is having a mediocre season. His strikeouts and walks are both up from last year. He doesn't have great stuff, but can pitch well from time to time. The Pirates are in a slide having lost their last 4 and they will be facing the rookie Wood for the first time. The Reds are coming off a series win over the division leading Braves and look to keep up the good play against the lowly, but young and talented, Pirates. I like the Reds.

In the second game Brett Myers is matched up against newly acquired Jake Westbrook. Myers has been pretty good all season long, but not too many people have noticed since he's playing on the lowly Astros. His indicators are solid and is coming off a dominant complete game 4 hitter while striking out 12. He has had the Cardinals number this year going 2-1 with a 1.71 ERA in three starts. Westbrook will be making his first start for the Cardinals on extended rest. He was supposed to pitch Saturday, but was traded so he will have an extra 2 days rest. That may not be the best thing for the sinkerballer since the harder he throws the flatter his sinker becomes. He will not miss many bats, so when his sinker is flat it can get ugly. But when his sinker is on he can breeze through innings. I think with the added rest and the fact that he will be pumped to make his first start for his new team will cause him to overthrow. I like the Astros in this one.

Bets

$17 CIN -170
$10 HOU +140

Oswalt Throws A Dud

That was not the type of performance the Phillies hoped to see from their newly acquired pitcher. Maybe the whole trade process affected in mentally, which was probably the case since he's been with the Astros for so long.

Portfolio: $755 (-18% return)
S&P 500: $1102 (19.7% return)

Today's Games

Philadelphia (-170) @ Washington (+150)
Florida (-140) @ San Diego (+120)

In the first game Cole Hamels is matched up against John Lannan. Hamels is having an average year and can't seem to turn the corner. His strikeouts are up but so are his walks. His hits are down so that also tells me his stuff is better this year. I like him to be strong down the stretch. Lannan was just called up since Strasburg was put on the DL. Lannan really struggled when he was up earlier this year and that does not surprise me. He can't miss bats. His strikeout rate was 2.88 per nine when he was sent down. That's not good when facing a hot Phillies lineup.

In the second game Josh Johnson is facing Jon Garland. Johnson is one of the leading CY young candidates in the NL and his indicators show it. He let up more than 2 earned runs (3) in his last start for the first time in a while. I look for his dominance to continue against a light hitting Padres team. Garland has put up some good numbers recently and very well could continue that. He is the ace of this staff so far and I expect this to be a good game, but I just don't think the Padres can score enough runs off Johnson.

Bets

$34 PHI -170
$14 FLA -140