Win One, Lose One, Break Even

The Indians came through last night with the help of their hot bats to prevent my portfolio from dropping again. The Phillies edged out the Brewers in another close game. Lee did what I thought he would do against a good hitting Brewers lineup by giving up 8 hits in 6 innings, but the Brewers were not able to break it open. Narveson pitched good, and should have gotten the win. He made one bad pitch to Polanco which resulted in a three run home run. It crazy, one bad pitch and I go from being up $29 to breaking even. These close games will start to turn around soon, and I will be closer to the S&P 500 towards seasons end than you may think. The S&P 500 is due for a pretty good dip in the coming months.

Portfolio: $718 (-22% return)

S&P 500: $1337 (45.2% return)

Today's Games

None

I'll be out of town for the weekend and won't be picking any games.

Two Games for Wednesday

Portfolio: $718 (-22% return)

S&P 500: $1331 (44.5% return)

Today's Games

Milwaukee (+190) @ Philadelphia (-210)

Cleveland (-110) @ Kansas City (-100)

In the first game Chris Narveson is matched up against Cliff Lee. Narveson is off to a great start at 1-0 with a 1.45 ERA, but luck has factored in a little bit. His hit rate is down about 2 hits per game from his career average and he has not given up a home run yet. On the flip side, his strikeouts are up, and that's one of the reasons why his luck is better. His ERA should be higher than 1.45, but it shouldn't be too much higher. Narveson is a finesse lefty who strikes people out with his change up and slow curve ball. His high strikeout rate tells me his stuff is pretty good, and for a pitcher like him it's all about feel. Lee has gotten off to a pretty good start himself, but you wouldn't know by seeing his 2-1 record with a 4.19 ERA. He was excellent in his first and third start, striking out 10+ in each, but was rocked in his second start. His first and third starts were against weak lineups, Houston and Washington, and his second start was against a strong lineup in Atlanta. He has not been walking anyone like usual and his strikeouts are through the roof, but when he does struggle it's because he gives up a lot of hits since all of his balls are in the strike zone. The Brewers can really hit the ball and I think they will score a few runs off Lee. I like the value in the Brewers here.

In the second game the red hot Justin Masterson is matched up against former number one pick Luke Hochevar. Masterson and the Indians have come out the gates blazing. Masterson has benefited from a low hit rate, but what has really impressed me is his walk rate. It's down to 1.8 BB/9 from his career average of 3.8. With his stuff, if he can keep that under 2.5 then he will be a legitimate front line starter. Hochevar has gotten off to a good start at 2-1 with a 4.21 ERA, but has been the victim of bad luck. He has given up 6 long balls in 4 starts so his ERA should probably be lower. His walk rate is minuscule and has always been his strength in the minors. His strikeouts are down a little, but they should rebound and he should finally become the starter the Royals expected when they drafted him first overall 5 years ago. For this game, I favor the Indians as they are the hotter team and have the better bullpen since it may come down to that.

Bets

$10 MIL +190

$11 CLE -110

1-3, Down $32

The slide continues. The Indians took care of business as Tomlin was sharp and Guthrie looked like a batting practice pitcher. Latos pitched well but gave up some untimely hits, and the Padres couldn't get to Figueroa. Verlander and Kershaw struggled unexpectedly. Don't worry and stick with me though, things will turn around.

This is also why I do not risk more than 5% on any bet. Most of betting and investing is all about money management. Risk more when things are going good and less when things are going bad. Unfortunately, most people do exactly the opposite, try to make up their losses and lose everything.

Portfolio: $718 (-22% return)

S&P 500: $1320 (43.3% return)

Today's Games

None

Trying To Turn Things Around

Portfolio: $750 (-18.6% return)

S&P 500: $1320 (43.3% return)

Today's Games

Baltimore (-100) @ Cleveland (-110)

San Diego (-150) @ Houston (+140)

Detroit (-120) @ Oakland (+110)

St. Louis (+140) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-150)

In the first game former Indians prospect Jeremy Guthrie is matched up against Josh Tomlin. Guthrie is off to what looks like a blazing start at 1-1 with a 0.64 ERA, but looking deeper into the stats tells me that it's a mirage. His control is what it has always been, very good, but his strikeouts are down to really low levels (4.5 K/9) and he is just getting lucky with almost all of his batted balls being fielded. He has also left 100% of his runners on base this year and his career average is around 75% (his lone earned run is from a homer). The Indians like to take walks and have been playing really well lately so this may not be the best matched for Guthrie. If he issues a few walks then he will struggle. Tomlin is off to a good start at 2-0 with a 2.63 ERA, but like Guthrie he is pitching over his head. He is walking guys this year at double his normal rate, and if his arm is healthy which it looks like it is, control is not something pitchers generally lose. So I look for him to get back on track throwing strikes behind a pretty good Cleveland defense. Cleveland has been playing really well the last 2 weeks and I look for them to keep it up today.

In the second game Mat Latos is matched up against veteran Nelson Figueroa. Latos looked pretty good in his first start except for 2 bad pitches (both home runs). Figueroa has struggled so far and should probably be a reliever. Houston always seems to get off to slow starts and facing the flame throwing Latos, I expect them to drop another game today.

In the third game Justin Verlander is matched up against Dallas Braden. Both pitchers are off to decent starts and both teams are playing average ball. Verlander looks like he picked up right where he left off the last 2 years as one of the games top right handers. Braden looks to have improved this off season since he's getting more swings and misses, and his control is still pinpoint. I think Verlander will carve up the weak hitting A's so just a few runs should win this game for the Tigers.

In the fourth game Kyle McClellan is matched up against Clayton Kershaw. Both pitchers are off to great starts and the Cardinals are riding a 3 game win streak and the Dodgers have dropped 4 in a row. McClellan looks to have potential, but he is really being helped out by a 90% left on base % (LOB%). The league average is around 70%. He has been a reliever the past 4 years dating back to the minors, so I expect him to be an erratic starter early on. Kershaw has been pitching out of his mind at 2-1 with a 1.37 ERA, and it's legit except his his 99% LOB%. Even if his LOB% was around his career average of 77%, his ERA would still be under 3 most likely. His strikeouts are up a little so far, but what really impresses me is his walks. He has cut his walks in half from 3.6 BB/9 to 1.8 BB/9. Even if he can hold half of those gains he'll be a top 3 CY Young candidate as the knock on him is his control. I look for both teams directions to turn tonight as Kershaw should be up for the challenge of facing Pujols.

Bets

$11 CLE -110

$15 SD -150

$12 DET -120

$15 LAD -150

0-1, Down $13

Wow, another close loss, 3-2. Things will start turning around soon.

Portfolio: $750 (-18.6% return)

S&P 500: $1309 (42.1% return)

Today's Games

None

1-2, Down $22

All the games were close, I just came out on the wrong end one too many times.

Portfolio: $763 (-17.2% return)

S&P 500: $1318 (43.1% return)

Today's Games

Cincinnati (-130) @ San Diego (+110)

In the only game today Travis Wood is matched up against Tim Stauffer. Wood is 1-1 with a 5.25 ERA, but he has pitched much better than that. His strikeout to walk ratio is the best in his career but he has gotten unlucky with his left on base percentage. His LOB% so far this year is 51% and his career average is 67%. Stauffer hasn't pitched well this year and he is struggling to miss hitters bats. That can be a problem against a good hitting Reds team looking to take the series.

Bets

$13 CIN -130

0-1, Down $13

Verlander pitched pretty well, but Ogando and the Rangers bullpen pitched better in a 2-0 win as Texas stayed hot.

Portfolio: $785 (-14.8% return)

S&P 500: $1316 (42.9% return)

Today's Games

Oakland (+110) @ Chicago White Sox (-120)

Cleveland (+150) @ Los Angeles Angels (-170)

Toronto (-110) @ Seattle (+100)

In the first game Trevor Cahill is matched up against Edwin Jackson. Both pitchers have gotten off to great starts, but the Chicago offense is a lot better than the Oakland offense. Chicago only scored 1 run last night in a 2-1 loss and I don't see their offense being dormant for two games in a row.

In the second game Fausto Carmona for the red hot Indians is matched up against Dan Haren. Carmona sports an 0-1 record with an ERA of 9.00, but he has pitched a lot better than what those number indicate. He was shelled in his first start, but came back and pitched a gem in his second start. I think his first start was just a product of bad luck as his stuff was good and he was pounding the strike zone (I was at that game). He did the same thing in his second start and threw 7 innings of scoreless 2 hit ball against the Red Sox. His ability to throw strikes and not walk batters does not fare well for opposing hitters as his sinker is one of the best in the game. Haren has also pitched well, but he is facing a Cleveland team that has won 8 in a row with their ace on the mound. I think Cleveland is a great value here at +150.

In the third game Ricky Romero is matched up against top prospect Michael Pineda. Romero has been pretty close to lights out in his first 2 starts as he looks to mature into one of the top lefties in the game. Pineda had a good first career start, giving up 3 runs in 6 innings, and he has the potential to be a great pitcher. The hard thrower tore up the minors the last couple of years, but I look for him to be inconsistent this year. Romero should be able to handle a light hitting Mariners lineup, so the -110 line looks like a steal here.

Bets

$12 CHW -120

$10 CLE +150

$22 TOR -110

2-0, Up $21

Portfolio: $798 (-13.4% return)

S&P 500: $1332 (44.6% return)

Today's Games

Texas (+110) @ Detroit (-130)

In the only game I like today the youngster Alexi Ogando will be making his second career start for the red hot Rangers against fire baller Justin Verlander of the Tigers. Ogando pitched well in his first start, throwing 6 shutout innings. He was really good out of the bullpen last year and has potential to be a good starter, but will probably be erratic from start to start. The Rangers are also the hottest team in baseball and their offense ifs on fire. Verlander has pitched well in his first 2 starts and once again looks like he will be in the running for the CY Young all year. He has fared well against the Rangers lineup in his career and I look for him to continue that today at home.

Bets

$13 DET -130

1-1, Down $10

I thought I had both games yesterday but the Twins scored 2 runs off Anderson in the 8th to win 2-1. It's not the best way to start off a season, but it could be worse.

Portfolio: $777 (-15.6% return)

S&P 500: $1328 (44.2% return)

Today's Games

Cincinnati (-110) @ Arizona (-110)

Cleveland (+110) @ Seattle (-120)

In the first game the steady veteran Bronson Arroyo is matched up against the up and coming Daniel Hudson. Both pitchers had solid first starts with Arroyo picking up a win and Hudson picking up a loss. The Reds started hot at 5-0, but have since dropped 2 in a row, including 13-2 beat down last night from the Diamondbacks. Everyone knows what to expect from Arroyo, especially after loss like last night. Arroyo will give his team a chance to win. Hudson on the other hand is young and can come out and throw a gem or get rocked. He his a fly ball pitcher and the Reds are a home run hitting team, and that's not a good combination for Hudson. The Reds are a legit World Series contender this year and I don't think they'll endure too many losing streaks this year, so I don't think they will drop their third straight especially with with their veteran pitcher on the mound.

In the second game Justin Masterson is matched up against Doug Fister. Masterson is coming off a win in which he only gave up 1 run in 7 innings, but he failed to register a strikeout. Fister is coming off a loss in which he also pitched well. Masterson throws what may be the best sinker in the game. For him to be successful he basically just has to throw his sinker for strikes, even if it is over the middle of the plate it moves so much that hitters have a hard time squaring it up. He gets into trouble when he walks people or is forced to throw a "get me over" fastball because he is behind in the count. He has shown good control this spring and in his first start, and the strikeouts will come because he has always good at that. Fister is a control pitcher who rarely get strikeouts. The Indians have been taking a lot of walks so far this season, so something has to give. I'll take the hot Indians bats and a locked in Masterson to extend the Tribe's win streak to 6 and push the Mariner's losing streak to 6.

Bets

$11 CIN -110

$10 CLE +110

It's Baseball Season!

My goal this season is to catch up to the S&P 500. I don't think it'll be as hard as it currently looks because I think the S&P 500 is due for a collapse this year.

Portfolio: $787 (-14.5% return)

S&P 500: $1332 (44.6% return)

Today's Games

Kansas City (+160) @ Detroit (-170)

Oakland (-100) @ Minnesota (-110)

In the first game Kyle Davies is matched up against the up and coming Max Scherzer. Both pitchers got rocked in their first start, so it may look like an even game. But historically the Tigers hitters have crushed Davies, so I like the Tigers to score a lot of runs in this game. I'm not too sure how Scherzer will do since he was hit pretty hard in his first start, but I think the Tigers will be able to put up a good numbers of runs against what they see as a batting practice pitcher.

In the second game Brett Anderson is matched up against Carl Pavano in the Twins home opener. Anderson is coming off a solid start, giving up only 1 run in 6 innings in a no decision, and looks to continue to build his case as the next stud left handed pitcher. Injuries really slowed him down last year and since it was his elbow I'm still kind of concerned, but so far so good. Pavano is coming off a shellacking in his first start, giving up 7 runs in 4 innings including 3 home runs. I know it's the Twins home opener and the energy level will be high, but this looks like the perfect match up for Oakland. The Twins are a left handed heavy lineup and Anderson should be able to neutralize them and the crowd. I'll take the even money odds here.

Bets

$17 DET -170

$20 OAK -100