Home Run Derby Fantasy Baseball Contest

I have taken some time off because I have been working on a website that hosts fantasy sports contests, and during that time the S&P 500 has lost 5%, so I gained 5%, I guess.

Portfolio: $649 (-29.5% return)
S&P 500: $1294 (40.5% return)

The website I now run is called All American Fantasy Sports and I currently have one game, The All American Home Run Derby. It's a 10 day contest and you are matched up head to head against another participant, and the team with the most home runs during the contest wins cash. Team consist of 5 players. You select 1 player from a group of 5, and there are 5 groups. There are 4 levels of games - $10, $25, $50, and $100, and the prizes are $18, $45, $90, and $180. Check out the site by clicking HERE and be sure to spread the word.

I might periodically pick games on this blog, but I can't guarantee anything. I do plan to have a better return than the S&P at some point so I will keep at it at least until that happens.

Marquis Struggles, Nationals Lose, Down $10

There's not much to say about that game other than it wasn't even close.

Portfolio: $649 (-29.5% return)

S&P 500: $1340 (45.5% return)

Today's Games

None

Phillies Win, Angels Lose, Break Even

After my recent losing stretch I'll definitely take breaking even.

Portfolio: $659 (-28.4% return)

S&P 500: $1346 (46.1% return)

Today's Games

Washington (+140) @ Philadelphia (-150)

In the only game Jason Marquis is matched up against Vance Worley. Marquis has been a big surprise this year going 3-0 with a 2.62 ERA and is fresh off a 5 hit, complete game shutout. His improvement doesn't look to be a fluke as he has gains in strikeouts, walks, and has developed a pretty good change up. The only thing helping him out from a luck standpoint is his lack of home runs, but all signs point to him being a solid starter this year with an ERA in the 3's, something he hasn't done since 2004. Worley is a rookie with some upside. He had pretty good success in the minors, but his stuff is not that great. I'm guessing that he'll have some growing pains early on and I'm also not sure if he's ready to be a starter in the majors (he's starting due to injuries). I like the Nationals with a new and improved Jason Marquis.

Bets

$10 WAS +140

Oakland Wins In Extras, Up $10

It had to go into extra innings, but I'll take it. It's about time a close game went my way.

Portfolio: $659 (-28.4% return)

S&P 500: $1356 (47.2% return)

Today's Games

Washington (+190) @ Philadelphia (-230)

Los Angeles Angels (+130) @ Boston (-150)

In the first game Livan Hernandez is matched up against Cole Hamels. Both pitchers have fared well this season, but Hamels is head and shoulders above Hernandez. Hernandez is right in line with his last couple of years, and generally gives his team a chance to win. Hamels is probably throwing better than he ever has during the regular season and I look for him to continue tonight against a weak hitting Nationals lineup. I don't think this game will be close.

In the second game, ace's Dan Haren and Jon Lester will be facing off. Both pitchers are off to great starts, and some luck has factored into both of their hot starts. the Angels have been playing well and the Red Sox are starting to put things together, so it will be an interesting series. I think this game is pretty evenly matched so that is why I am going to go with the value in the Angels here. If the line was flipped I would have Boston. This is a pure value play.

Bets

$23 PHI -230

$10 LAA +130

0-2, Down $69

Wow, that was my biggest loss of all time. Both teams lost by 1 run and my string of bad luck (or just horrible picks) continues. If anything, you can just go the opposite of what I pick, but I seem to think I am just in a streak of bad luck.

Portfolio: $649 (-29.5% return)

S&P 500: $1364 (48.1% return)

Today's Games

Texas (-110) @ Oakland (+100)

In the only game I like today Derek Holland is matched up against Brandon McCarthy. The Rangers got off to a hot start but have since cooled down and the A's have been average all year long. Both pitchers are in somewhat similar situations. Both were top prospects and both have pitched better than what their numbers show. Both pitchers are giving up a higher percentage of hits on balls in play than normal. McCarthy is trying to res erect his career after a string of injuries over the last 5 years. Other than his last start, where he was rocked for 14 hits and 7 runs, he has pitched really well. Holland had 2 good starts to start off the season, but has since given up 5 runs in each of his last 3 starts. With the line being even, I'm going to go with Oakland because I think McCarthy will have an edge pitching against the team that let him go last year.

Bets

$10 OAK +100

Two Easy Games on Sunday

Portfolio: $718 (-22% return)

S&P 500: $1364 (48.1% return)

Today's Games

San Francisco (-120) @ Washington (+110)

Seattle (-110) @ Boston (+100)

In the first game Matt Cain is matched up against Jordan Zimmerman. Cain has gotten off to a pretty good start, except for a little hiccup two starts ago against the Rockies. All of his peripheral numbers are right in line with his career numbers and his walks and ground ball rate are significantly better this year. If that holds up he might be competing with teammate Tim Lincecum for the CY Young. Zimmerman has been pretty inconsistent this year and has struggled in his last two starts. His strikeouts are down and he seems to struggle when he gets guys on base. He'll eventually work those things out, but I'm not betting on it happening overnight. Both teams are right around .500, and I'll take the team with the better starter at the moment. I think there's pretty good value in the Giants here.

In the second game Felix Hernandez is matched up against knuckle baller Tim Wakefield. Hernandez is his usual self, and that means a top 5 pitcher in all of baseball. Wakefield is his usual self, and that means you never know what you're going to get, although he has a knack for keeping his team in the game. The Mariners are riding a 5 game winning streak and going for the sweep against the wanna be 'evil empire' Red Sox. Hernandez will defiantly be up for this game and I'm really liking the -110 line with the reigning CY Young winner on the mound.

I rarely do this, but I am maxing out both bets.

Bets

$36 SF -120

$33 SEA -110

Win One, Lose One, Break Even

The Indians came through last night with the help of their hot bats to prevent my portfolio from dropping again. The Phillies edged out the Brewers in another close game. Lee did what I thought he would do against a good hitting Brewers lineup by giving up 8 hits in 6 innings, but the Brewers were not able to break it open. Narveson pitched good, and should have gotten the win. He made one bad pitch to Polanco which resulted in a three run home run. It crazy, one bad pitch and I go from being up $29 to breaking even. These close games will start to turn around soon, and I will be closer to the S&P 500 towards seasons end than you may think. The S&P 500 is due for a pretty good dip in the coming months.

Portfolio: $718 (-22% return)

S&P 500: $1337 (45.2% return)

Today's Games

None

I'll be out of town for the weekend and won't be picking any games.

Two Games for Wednesday

Portfolio: $718 (-22% return)

S&P 500: $1331 (44.5% return)

Today's Games

Milwaukee (+190) @ Philadelphia (-210)

Cleveland (-110) @ Kansas City (-100)

In the first game Chris Narveson is matched up against Cliff Lee. Narveson is off to a great start at 1-0 with a 1.45 ERA, but luck has factored in a little bit. His hit rate is down about 2 hits per game from his career average and he has not given up a home run yet. On the flip side, his strikeouts are up, and that's one of the reasons why his luck is better. His ERA should be higher than 1.45, but it shouldn't be too much higher. Narveson is a finesse lefty who strikes people out with his change up and slow curve ball. His high strikeout rate tells me his stuff is pretty good, and for a pitcher like him it's all about feel. Lee has gotten off to a pretty good start himself, but you wouldn't know by seeing his 2-1 record with a 4.19 ERA. He was excellent in his first and third start, striking out 10+ in each, but was rocked in his second start. His first and third starts were against weak lineups, Houston and Washington, and his second start was against a strong lineup in Atlanta. He has not been walking anyone like usual and his strikeouts are through the roof, but when he does struggle it's because he gives up a lot of hits since all of his balls are in the strike zone. The Brewers can really hit the ball and I think they will score a few runs off Lee. I like the value in the Brewers here.

In the second game the red hot Justin Masterson is matched up against former number one pick Luke Hochevar. Masterson and the Indians have come out the gates blazing. Masterson has benefited from a low hit rate, but what has really impressed me is his walk rate. It's down to 1.8 BB/9 from his career average of 3.8. With his stuff, if he can keep that under 2.5 then he will be a legitimate front line starter. Hochevar has gotten off to a good start at 2-1 with a 4.21 ERA, but has been the victim of bad luck. He has given up 6 long balls in 4 starts so his ERA should probably be lower. His walk rate is minuscule and has always been his strength in the minors. His strikeouts are down a little, but they should rebound and he should finally become the starter the Royals expected when they drafted him first overall 5 years ago. For this game, I favor the Indians as they are the hotter team and have the better bullpen since it may come down to that.

Bets

$10 MIL +190

$11 CLE -110

1-3, Down $32

The slide continues. The Indians took care of business as Tomlin was sharp and Guthrie looked like a batting practice pitcher. Latos pitched well but gave up some untimely hits, and the Padres couldn't get to Figueroa. Verlander and Kershaw struggled unexpectedly. Don't worry and stick with me though, things will turn around.

This is also why I do not risk more than 5% on any bet. Most of betting and investing is all about money management. Risk more when things are going good and less when things are going bad. Unfortunately, most people do exactly the opposite, try to make up their losses and lose everything.

Portfolio: $718 (-22% return)

S&P 500: $1320 (43.3% return)

Today's Games

None

Trying To Turn Things Around

Portfolio: $750 (-18.6% return)

S&P 500: $1320 (43.3% return)

Today's Games

Baltimore (-100) @ Cleveland (-110)

San Diego (-150) @ Houston (+140)

Detroit (-120) @ Oakland (+110)

St. Louis (+140) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-150)

In the first game former Indians prospect Jeremy Guthrie is matched up against Josh Tomlin. Guthrie is off to what looks like a blazing start at 1-1 with a 0.64 ERA, but looking deeper into the stats tells me that it's a mirage. His control is what it has always been, very good, but his strikeouts are down to really low levels (4.5 K/9) and he is just getting lucky with almost all of his batted balls being fielded. He has also left 100% of his runners on base this year and his career average is around 75% (his lone earned run is from a homer). The Indians like to take walks and have been playing really well lately so this may not be the best matched for Guthrie. If he issues a few walks then he will struggle. Tomlin is off to a good start at 2-0 with a 2.63 ERA, but like Guthrie he is pitching over his head. He is walking guys this year at double his normal rate, and if his arm is healthy which it looks like it is, control is not something pitchers generally lose. So I look for him to get back on track throwing strikes behind a pretty good Cleveland defense. Cleveland has been playing really well the last 2 weeks and I look for them to keep it up today.

In the second game Mat Latos is matched up against veteran Nelson Figueroa. Latos looked pretty good in his first start except for 2 bad pitches (both home runs). Figueroa has struggled so far and should probably be a reliever. Houston always seems to get off to slow starts and facing the flame throwing Latos, I expect them to drop another game today.

In the third game Justin Verlander is matched up against Dallas Braden. Both pitchers are off to decent starts and both teams are playing average ball. Verlander looks like he picked up right where he left off the last 2 years as one of the games top right handers. Braden looks to have improved this off season since he's getting more swings and misses, and his control is still pinpoint. I think Verlander will carve up the weak hitting A's so just a few runs should win this game for the Tigers.

In the fourth game Kyle McClellan is matched up against Clayton Kershaw. Both pitchers are off to great starts and the Cardinals are riding a 3 game win streak and the Dodgers have dropped 4 in a row. McClellan looks to have potential, but he is really being helped out by a 90% left on base % (LOB%). The league average is around 70%. He has been a reliever the past 4 years dating back to the minors, so I expect him to be an erratic starter early on. Kershaw has been pitching out of his mind at 2-1 with a 1.37 ERA, and it's legit except his his 99% LOB%. Even if his LOB% was around his career average of 77%, his ERA would still be under 3 most likely. His strikeouts are up a little so far, but what really impresses me is his walks. He has cut his walks in half from 3.6 BB/9 to 1.8 BB/9. Even if he can hold half of those gains he'll be a top 3 CY Young candidate as the knock on him is his control. I look for both teams directions to turn tonight as Kershaw should be up for the challenge of facing Pujols.

Bets

$11 CLE -110

$15 SD -150

$12 DET -120

$15 LAD -150