S&P 500: $1320 (43.3% return)
Today's Games
Baltimore (-100) @ Cleveland (-110)
San Diego (-150) @ Houston (+140)
Detroit (-120) @ Oakland (+110)
St. Louis (+140) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-150)
In the first game former Indians prospect Jeremy Guthrie is matched up against Josh Tomlin. Guthrie is off to what looks like a blazing start at 1-1 with a 0.64 ERA, but looking deeper into the stats tells me that it's a mirage. His control is what it has always been, very good, but his strikeouts are down to really low levels (4.5 K/9) and he is just getting lucky with almost all of his batted balls being fielded. He has also left 100% of his runners on base this year and his career average is around 75% (his lone earned run is from a homer). The Indians like to take walks and have been playing really well lately so this may not be the best matched for Guthrie. If he issues a few walks then he will struggle. Tomlin is off to a good start at 2-0 with a 2.63 ERA, but like Guthrie he is pitching over his head. He is walking guys this year at double his normal rate, and if his arm is healthy which it looks like it is, control is not something pitchers generally lose. So I look for him to get back on track throwing strikes behind a pretty good Cleveland defense. Cleveland has been playing really well the last 2 weeks and I look for them to keep it up today.
In the second game Mat Latos is matched up against veteran Nelson Figueroa. Latos looked pretty good in his first start except for 2 bad pitches (both home runs). Figueroa has struggled so far and should probably be a reliever. Houston always seems to get off to slow starts and facing the flame throwing Latos, I expect them to drop another game today.
In the third game Justin Verlander is matched up against Dallas Braden. Both pitchers are off to decent starts and both teams are playing average ball. Verlander looks like he picked up right where he left off the last 2 years as one of the games top right handers. Braden looks to have improved this off season since he's getting more swings and misses, and his control is still pinpoint. I think Verlander will carve up the weak hitting A's so just a few runs should win this game for the Tigers.
In the fourth game Kyle McClellan is matched up against Clayton Kershaw. Both pitchers are off to great starts and the Cardinals are riding a 3 game win streak and the Dodgers have dropped 4 in a row. McClellan looks to have potential, but he is really being helped out by a 90% left on base % (LOB%). The league average is around 70%. He has been a reliever the past 4 years dating back to the minors, so I expect him to be an erratic starter early on. Kershaw has been pitching out of his mind at 2-1 with a 1.37 ERA, and it's legit except his his 99% LOB%. Even if his LOB% was around his career average of 77%, his ERA would still be under 3 most likely. His strikeouts are up a little so far, but what really impresses me is his walks. He has cut his walks in half from 3.6 BB/9 to 1.8 BB/9. Even if he can hold half of those gains he'll be a top 3 CY Young candidate as the knock on him is his control. I look for both teams directions to turn tonight as Kershaw should be up for the challenge of facing Pujols.
Bets
$11 CLE -110
$15 SD -150
$12 DET -120
$15 LAD -150
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