Marquis Struggles, Nationals Lose, Down $10

There's not much to say about that game other than it wasn't even close.

Portfolio: $649 (-29.5% return)

S&P 500: $1340 (45.5% return)

Today's Games

None

Phillies Win, Angels Lose, Break Even

After my recent losing stretch I'll definitely take breaking even.

Portfolio: $659 (-28.4% return)

S&P 500: $1346 (46.1% return)

Today's Games

Washington (+140) @ Philadelphia (-150)

In the only game Jason Marquis is matched up against Vance Worley. Marquis has been a big surprise this year going 3-0 with a 2.62 ERA and is fresh off a 5 hit, complete game shutout. His improvement doesn't look to be a fluke as he has gains in strikeouts, walks, and has developed a pretty good change up. The only thing helping him out from a luck standpoint is his lack of home runs, but all signs point to him being a solid starter this year with an ERA in the 3's, something he hasn't done since 2004. Worley is a rookie with some upside. He had pretty good success in the minors, but his stuff is not that great. I'm guessing that he'll have some growing pains early on and I'm also not sure if he's ready to be a starter in the majors (he's starting due to injuries). I like the Nationals with a new and improved Jason Marquis.

Bets

$10 WAS +140

Oakland Wins In Extras, Up $10

It had to go into extra innings, but I'll take it. It's about time a close game went my way.

Portfolio: $659 (-28.4% return)

S&P 500: $1356 (47.2% return)

Today's Games

Washington (+190) @ Philadelphia (-230)

Los Angeles Angels (+130) @ Boston (-150)

In the first game Livan Hernandez is matched up against Cole Hamels. Both pitchers have fared well this season, but Hamels is head and shoulders above Hernandez. Hernandez is right in line with his last couple of years, and generally gives his team a chance to win. Hamels is probably throwing better than he ever has during the regular season and I look for him to continue tonight against a weak hitting Nationals lineup. I don't think this game will be close.

In the second game, ace's Dan Haren and Jon Lester will be facing off. Both pitchers are off to great starts, and some luck has factored into both of their hot starts. the Angels have been playing well and the Red Sox are starting to put things together, so it will be an interesting series. I think this game is pretty evenly matched so that is why I am going to go with the value in the Angels here. If the line was flipped I would have Boston. This is a pure value play.

Bets

$23 PHI -230

$10 LAA +130

Two Easy Games on Sunday

Portfolio: $718 (-22% return)

S&P 500: $1364 (48.1% return)

Today's Games

San Francisco (-120) @ Washington (+110)

Seattle (-110) @ Boston (+100)

In the first game Matt Cain is matched up against Jordan Zimmerman. Cain has gotten off to a pretty good start, except for a little hiccup two starts ago against the Rockies. All of his peripheral numbers are right in line with his career numbers and his walks and ground ball rate are significantly better this year. If that holds up he might be competing with teammate Tim Lincecum for the CY Young. Zimmerman has been pretty inconsistent this year and has struggled in his last two starts. His strikeouts are down and he seems to struggle when he gets guys on base. He'll eventually work those things out, but I'm not betting on it happening overnight. Both teams are right around .500, and I'll take the team with the better starter at the moment. I think there's pretty good value in the Giants here.

In the second game Felix Hernandez is matched up against knuckle baller Tim Wakefield. Hernandez is his usual self, and that means a top 5 pitcher in all of baseball. Wakefield is his usual self, and that means you never know what you're going to get, although he has a knack for keeping his team in the game. The Mariners are riding a 5 game winning streak and going for the sweep against the wanna be 'evil empire' Red Sox. Hernandez will defiantly be up for this game and I'm really liking the -110 line with the reigning CY Young winner on the mound.

I rarely do this, but I am maxing out both bets.

Bets

$36 SF -120

$33 SEA -110

Win One, Lose One, Break Even

The Indians came through last night with the help of their hot bats to prevent my portfolio from dropping again. The Phillies edged out the Brewers in another close game. Lee did what I thought he would do against a good hitting Brewers lineup by giving up 8 hits in 6 innings, but the Brewers were not able to break it open. Narveson pitched good, and should have gotten the win. He made one bad pitch to Polanco which resulted in a three run home run. It crazy, one bad pitch and I go from being up $29 to breaking even. These close games will start to turn around soon, and I will be closer to the S&P 500 towards seasons end than you may think. The S&P 500 is due for a pretty good dip in the coming months.

Portfolio: $718 (-22% return)

S&P 500: $1337 (45.2% return)

Today's Games

None

I'll be out of town for the weekend and won't be picking any games.

Two Games for Wednesday

Portfolio: $718 (-22% return)

S&P 500: $1331 (44.5% return)

Today's Games

Milwaukee (+190) @ Philadelphia (-210)

Cleveland (-110) @ Kansas City (-100)

In the first game Chris Narveson is matched up against Cliff Lee. Narveson is off to a great start at 1-0 with a 1.45 ERA, but luck has factored in a little bit. His hit rate is down about 2 hits per game from his career average and he has not given up a home run yet. On the flip side, his strikeouts are up, and that's one of the reasons why his luck is better. His ERA should be higher than 1.45, but it shouldn't be too much higher. Narveson is a finesse lefty who strikes people out with his change up and slow curve ball. His high strikeout rate tells me his stuff is pretty good, and for a pitcher like him it's all about feel. Lee has gotten off to a pretty good start himself, but you wouldn't know by seeing his 2-1 record with a 4.19 ERA. He was excellent in his first and third start, striking out 10+ in each, but was rocked in his second start. His first and third starts were against weak lineups, Houston and Washington, and his second start was against a strong lineup in Atlanta. He has not been walking anyone like usual and his strikeouts are through the roof, but when he does struggle it's because he gives up a lot of hits since all of his balls are in the strike zone. The Brewers can really hit the ball and I think they will score a few runs off Lee. I like the value in the Brewers here.

In the second game the red hot Justin Masterson is matched up against former number one pick Luke Hochevar. Masterson and the Indians have come out the gates blazing. Masterson has benefited from a low hit rate, but what has really impressed me is his walk rate. It's down to 1.8 BB/9 from his career average of 3.8. With his stuff, if he can keep that under 2.5 then he will be a legitimate front line starter. Hochevar has gotten off to a good start at 2-1 with a 4.21 ERA, but has been the victim of bad luck. He has given up 6 long balls in 4 starts so his ERA should probably be lower. His walk rate is minuscule and has always been his strength in the minors. His strikeouts are down a little, but they should rebound and he should finally become the starter the Royals expected when they drafted him first overall 5 years ago. For this game, I favor the Indians as they are the hotter team and have the better bullpen since it may come down to that.

Bets

$10 MIL +190

$11 CLE -110

Trying To Turn Things Around

Portfolio: $750 (-18.6% return)

S&P 500: $1320 (43.3% return)

Today's Games

Baltimore (-100) @ Cleveland (-110)

San Diego (-150) @ Houston (+140)

Detroit (-120) @ Oakland (+110)

St. Louis (+140) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-150)

In the first game former Indians prospect Jeremy Guthrie is matched up against Josh Tomlin. Guthrie is off to what looks like a blazing start at 1-1 with a 0.64 ERA, but looking deeper into the stats tells me that it's a mirage. His control is what it has always been, very good, but his strikeouts are down to really low levels (4.5 K/9) and he is just getting lucky with almost all of his batted balls being fielded. He has also left 100% of his runners on base this year and his career average is around 75% (his lone earned run is from a homer). The Indians like to take walks and have been playing really well lately so this may not be the best matched for Guthrie. If he issues a few walks then he will struggle. Tomlin is off to a good start at 2-0 with a 2.63 ERA, but like Guthrie he is pitching over his head. He is walking guys this year at double his normal rate, and if his arm is healthy which it looks like it is, control is not something pitchers generally lose. So I look for him to get back on track throwing strikes behind a pretty good Cleveland defense. Cleveland has been playing really well the last 2 weeks and I look for them to keep it up today.

In the second game Mat Latos is matched up against veteran Nelson Figueroa. Latos looked pretty good in his first start except for 2 bad pitches (both home runs). Figueroa has struggled so far and should probably be a reliever. Houston always seems to get off to slow starts and facing the flame throwing Latos, I expect them to drop another game today.

In the third game Justin Verlander is matched up against Dallas Braden. Both pitchers are off to decent starts and both teams are playing average ball. Verlander looks like he picked up right where he left off the last 2 years as one of the games top right handers. Braden looks to have improved this off season since he's getting more swings and misses, and his control is still pinpoint. I think Verlander will carve up the weak hitting A's so just a few runs should win this game for the Tigers.

In the fourth game Kyle McClellan is matched up against Clayton Kershaw. Both pitchers are off to great starts and the Cardinals are riding a 3 game win streak and the Dodgers have dropped 4 in a row. McClellan looks to have potential, but he is really being helped out by a 90% left on base % (LOB%). The league average is around 70%. He has been a reliever the past 4 years dating back to the minors, so I expect him to be an erratic starter early on. Kershaw has been pitching out of his mind at 2-1 with a 1.37 ERA, and it's legit except his his 99% LOB%. Even if his LOB% was around his career average of 77%, his ERA would still be under 3 most likely. His strikeouts are up a little so far, but what really impresses me is his walks. He has cut his walks in half from 3.6 BB/9 to 1.8 BB/9. Even if he can hold half of those gains he'll be a top 3 CY Young candidate as the knock on him is his control. I look for both teams directions to turn tonight as Kershaw should be up for the challenge of facing Pujols.

Bets

$11 CLE -110

$15 SD -150

$12 DET -120

$15 LAD -150

1-2, Down $22

All the games were close, I just came out on the wrong end one too many times.

Portfolio: $763 (-17.2% return)

S&P 500: $1318 (43.1% return)

Today's Games

Cincinnati (-130) @ San Diego (+110)

In the only game today Travis Wood is matched up against Tim Stauffer. Wood is 1-1 with a 5.25 ERA, but he has pitched much better than that. His strikeout to walk ratio is the best in his career but he has gotten unlucky with his left on base percentage. His LOB% so far this year is 51% and his career average is 67%. Stauffer hasn't pitched well this year and he is struggling to miss hitters bats. That can be a problem against a good hitting Reds team looking to take the series.

Bets

$13 CIN -130

0-1, Down $13

Verlander pitched pretty well, but Ogando and the Rangers bullpen pitched better in a 2-0 win as Texas stayed hot.

Portfolio: $785 (-14.8% return)

S&P 500: $1316 (42.9% return)

Today's Games

Oakland (+110) @ Chicago White Sox (-120)

Cleveland (+150) @ Los Angeles Angels (-170)

Toronto (-110) @ Seattle (+100)

In the first game Trevor Cahill is matched up against Edwin Jackson. Both pitchers have gotten off to great starts, but the Chicago offense is a lot better than the Oakland offense. Chicago only scored 1 run last night in a 2-1 loss and I don't see their offense being dormant for two games in a row.

In the second game Fausto Carmona for the red hot Indians is matched up against Dan Haren. Carmona sports an 0-1 record with an ERA of 9.00, but he has pitched a lot better than what those number indicate. He was shelled in his first start, but came back and pitched a gem in his second start. I think his first start was just a product of bad luck as his stuff was good and he was pounding the strike zone (I was at that game). He did the same thing in his second start and threw 7 innings of scoreless 2 hit ball against the Red Sox. His ability to throw strikes and not walk batters does not fare well for opposing hitters as his sinker is one of the best in the game. Haren has also pitched well, but he is facing a Cleveland team that has won 8 in a row with their ace on the mound. I think Cleveland is a great value here at +150.

In the third game Ricky Romero is matched up against top prospect Michael Pineda. Romero has been pretty close to lights out in his first 2 starts as he looks to mature into one of the top lefties in the game. Pineda had a good first career start, giving up 3 runs in 6 innings, and he has the potential to be a great pitcher. The hard thrower tore up the minors the last couple of years, but I look for him to be inconsistent this year. Romero should be able to handle a light hitting Mariners lineup, so the -110 line looks like a steal here.

Bets

$12 CHW -120

$10 CLE +150

$22 TOR -110

2-0, Up $21

Portfolio: $798 (-13.4% return)

S&P 500: $1332 (44.6% return)

Today's Games

Texas (+110) @ Detroit (-130)

In the only game I like today the youngster Alexi Ogando will be making his second career start for the red hot Rangers against fire baller Justin Verlander of the Tigers. Ogando pitched well in his first start, throwing 6 shutout innings. He was really good out of the bullpen last year and has potential to be a good starter, but will probably be erratic from start to start. The Rangers are also the hottest team in baseball and their offense ifs on fire. Verlander has pitched well in his first 2 starts and once again looks like he will be in the running for the CY Young all year. He has fared well against the Rangers lineup in his career and I look for him to continue that today at home.

Bets

$13 DET -130

It's Baseball Season!

My goal this season is to catch up to the S&P 500. I don't think it'll be as hard as it currently looks because I think the S&P 500 is due for a collapse this year.

Portfolio: $787 (-14.5% return)

S&P 500: $1332 (44.6% return)

Today's Games

Kansas City (+160) @ Detroit (-170)

Oakland (-100) @ Minnesota (-110)

In the first game Kyle Davies is matched up against the up and coming Max Scherzer. Both pitchers got rocked in their first start, so it may look like an even game. But historically the Tigers hitters have crushed Davies, so I like the Tigers to score a lot of runs in this game. I'm not too sure how Scherzer will do since he was hit pretty hard in his first start, but I think the Tigers will be able to put up a good numbers of runs against what they see as a batting practice pitcher.

In the second game Brett Anderson is matched up against Carl Pavano in the Twins home opener. Anderson is coming off a solid start, giving up only 1 run in 6 innings in a no decision, and looks to continue to build his case as the next stud left handed pitcher. Injuries really slowed him down last year and since it was his elbow I'm still kind of concerned, but so far so good. Pavano is coming off a shellacking in his first start, giving up 7 runs in 4 innings including 3 home runs. I know it's the Twins home opener and the energy level will be high, but this looks like the perfect match up for Oakland. The Twins are a left handed heavy lineup and Anderson should be able to neutralize them and the crowd. I'll take the even money odds here.

Bets

$17 DET -170

$20 OAK -100

Another Bad Night, 0-2 - Down $22

Both of my losses, Purdue and Texas A&M weren't even close to covering while the Cavs pushed.

Portfolio: $787 (-14.5% return)
S&P 500: $1280 (40$ return)

Today's Games

None

2-0, Up $10

Much better day yesterday as I made up for the losses the day before.

Portfolio: $809 (12.2% return)
S&P 500: $1282 (39.2% return)

Today's Games

Phoenix Suns @ Cleveland Cavs (+8)
Penn St @ Purdue (-13)
Texas A&M @ Texas (-6.5)

In the first game I like the Cavs +8 over the Suns. The Cavs are finally home after their annual west coast trip in which they were destroyed. They have also lost 13 straight and something like 24 out fo their last 25. They have been hit hard by the injury bug, but they do get Boobie Gibson back tonight. They played Phoenix well a few weeks ago with a depleted roster and I expect them to do so again tonight. The Suns don't play much defense and that should give a boost to the offensively challenged Cavs. The Cavs also don't play much defense, but I think the Suns might have a hard time getting up for this game (especially one of the all-time slackers, Vince Carter). I'll take the points in what should be a closer than expected game. It also might be worth noting that I'm a Cleveland sports fan so I might have a little bias toward them, but I think I am right in this case.

In the second game I like Purdue. Penn State has been playing well lately, but that should end tonight against a very talented Purdue team that is upset after dropping two in a row.

In the third game I like the visiting Aggies. I have not seen either team play, but from what I can tell they both play good defense so it should be a close game. 6.5 points seems like a lot here.

Bets

$11 CLE +8
$11 PUR -13
$11 TAM +6.5

Yankees Win, Down $10

CC Sabathia didn't pitch great and got lucky. He gave up 11 hits in 6 innings, but only allowed 2 runs. More times than not he should have given up more than 2 runs.

Portfolio: $812 (-11.8% return)
S&P 500: $1178 (27.9% return)

Today's Games

None

Elimination Game In The AL

Portfolio: $822 (-10.7% return)
S&P 500: $1182 (28.3% return)

Today's Games

Texas (+150) @ NY Yankees (-170)

In game 5 of the ALCS C.J. Wilson is matched up against C.C. Sabathia. Wilson has pitched pretty well this postseason and CC has had one good and one average start. I like the Rangers in this game because CC is not a big game pitcher. I was shocked he came through last year and will be shocked if he comes through again. Being a Cleveland Indians fan I saw him always fold under pressure. I don't care how CJ Wilson pitches because I don't have faith in Sabathia and I think the Yankees will be able to see that in him too during the game.

Bets

$10 TEX +150

Lee Masterful as Rangers Go Up 2-1, Portfolio Up $10

Now that was fun to watch last night. I don't know how to explain it other than it was a work of art. Lee was hitting the corners on every pitch and had the Yankees fooled all night. It's not that often you see so many strike outs looking.

Portfolio: $822 (-10.7% return)
S&P 500: $1166 (26.6% return)

Today's Games

None

Giants Win, Up $30

That was a pretty good game Saturday night and it went just as I thought.

Portfolio: $812 (-11.8% return)
S&P 500: $1176 (27..7% return)

Today's Game (Monday 10/18)

Texas (-120) @ NY Yankees (-110)

Game 3 of the ALCS features two lefties, Cliff Lee and Andy Pettitte. Lee has quickly become one of the better postseason pitchers in recent history and dominated in his two starts against the Rays. He fared pretty well against the Yankees this season and won 2 games against them in last years World Series. It should be fun to watch him going up against the best hitting lineup in baseball because he challenges everybody. He never gives in as he's only walked 18 batters in 228 innings including the postseason. He strikes out his fair share of batters, but really doesn't have a great strikeout pitch. Most of his punch outs come from fastballs. Pettitte threw like his normal self in game 2 of the ALDS. Hitter's just had a hard time squaring him up. I don't see Lee slowing down and I feel the Rangers have a confidence with him on the mound, so I like the slightly favored Rangers to go up 2-1.

Bets

$12 TEX -120

NLCS Game 1

Portfolio: $782 (-15.1% return)
S&P 500: $1176 (27.7% return)

Today's Game

San Francisco (+150) @ Philadelphia (-170)

In game 1 of the NCLS Tim Lincecum is matched up against Roy Halladay. I'm not sure if there has ever been two hotter pitchers to face each other in the postseason. Here's their combined numbers from their division series starts: 2 wins, 18 innings, 2 hits, 2 walks, and 22 strikeouts. Each pitcher faced the other team once this year, and both were in April. Lincecum dominated while Halladay struggled. That was so long ago though. I do believe Lincecum has handled the Phillies pretty well in the past, even in Philly. His change up is his best pitch and that kills lefties. I think when Lincecum is on that he is the best pitcher in the game. If his blister is not an issue I look for him to out duel Halladay in what should be a fun game to watch. Look for the Giants to be aggressive on offense by swinging early in the count and for the Phillies to be aggressive on the base paths as Lincecum is poor at managing the running game. I think the Phillies will take Lincecum deep once and the Giants will score 2-3 runs from multiple hits in an inning. I see the final score being 4-2 in favor of the Giants.

Bets

$20 SF +150

Lincecum Unhittable, Up $0

Tim Lincecum tried his best to match Roy Halladay by throwing a complete game 2 hitter. He also added 14 strikeouts with only 1 walk. What we saw the last two days is pretty rare. I know pitching is always good in the postseason, but not this good. It should be fun to see how this plays out. A Lincecum vs. Halladay matchup would be very good.

Portfolio: $782 (-15.1% return)
S&P 500: $1165 (26.5% return)

Today's Games

None

0-2, Down $23

I couldn't have been more wrong about the Reds/Phillies game. Volquez had a deer in the headlights look while Halladay looked like he's pitched in the postseason for years. What a great performance by Halladay.

Portfolio: $772 (-16.2% return)
S&P 500: $1160 (26% return)

Today's Games (Thursday 10/7)

Atlanta (+140) @ San Francisco (-160)

In the only game I like Thursday Derek Lowe is matched up against Tim Lincecum. Lowe has had a typical season for him and has really come on as of late. He is one of the best ground ball pitchers in the game and has very good control. Everything seems to be clicking for him lately as his strikeout rate is around 9 per 9 innings when his season and career average is around 6. He was a big reason the Braves held on at the end of the season after leading the division for most of the year. Lincecum had an up and down year but still managed a 16-10 record with a 3.43 ERA. By his standards that is average, but he has really come on down the stretch. Whatever got into him in the middle of the season is now gone. He has been more dominant that Lowe down the stretch and is a big reason the Giants made the playoffs. If you have read this blog in the past you know that I think Lincecum is the best pitcher in the game. After winning 2 CY Youngs in 4 years there is only one thing left for him to prove, and that is if he's a big game pitcher. The Giants have the worst offense in the playoffs and one of their main bats is a rookie (Posey), but their pitching from start to finish is unmatchable. I'll take Lincecum in his first postseason start.

Bets

$16 SF -160