Tuesday, October 5, 2010

Let the Postseason Begin

Portfolio: $795 (-13.7% return)
S&P 500: $1161 (26.1% return)

Today's Games (Wednesday 10/6)

Texas (+110) @ Tampa Bay (-130)
Cincinnati (+190) @ Philadelphia (-230)

The first game is the battle of the lefties as Cliff Lee faces David Price. Both pitchers have been on top of their games and both have had success in the postseason before. I'm not sure if Josh Hamilton will be the same, and he is what makes their offense tick. That's just plain bad luck that he had to hurt his ribs. I know he played the last two games and hit a home run, but there is no way he is feeling normal. I think it's a big home field advantage for the Rays even though they have some of the worst fans. They are used to playing in the worst facility in the majors. The Rays have also hit Lee pretty good this year, beating him 3 times. Price pitched average in his only match up against the Rangers and received a no decision. Price has also been dominant at home with a 9-2 record and 1.96 ERA. As you can tell, I like the Rays in game 1 of the ALDS.

In the second game Edinson Volquez is matched up against Roy Halladay and the heavily favored Phillies. Volquex has pitched well lately and has great stuff, but he still struggles with control. He hasn't faced the Phillies this year, and in fact no one has faced him more than a couple of games. Raul Ibanez has 9 at bats against Volquez and that leads the team. I would say this favors Volquez. Halladay has been his usual dominant self lately and is coming off a complete game 2 hitter (no walks). He faced the Reds twice this year and pitched really well. The Reds are familiar with Halladay as three players have faced him over 30 times. Overall everyone has decent numbers against him. Also keep in mind that Halladay has never pitched in the postseason before and the Phillies are the favorite to win the World Series, so we'll see how he reacts to pressure. One way to tell if he's tight is if he comes out walking people. He never walks batters and that is one of the main reasons he is so good. I think the Reds are a good bet as a +190 underdog given that they have had success against Halladay and this is his first postseason start.

Bets

$13 TB -130
$10 CIN +190

No comments:

Post a Comment