Verlander Out Pitches Cahill But Loses, Down $34

Justin Verlander pitched pretty good as he allowed 7 baserunners (6 hits and 1 walk) over 7 innings while striking out 8, but he allowed 3 runs. Cahill on the other hand allowed 9 baserunners (5 hits and 4 walks) in 6 1/3 innings while striking out 3, but he somehow only gave up 1 run. Verlander's start would produce a win 8 out of 10 times going against Cahill's, but yesterday was not was not one of those 8 days. The game was delayed for a few hours due to rain and that may have had some impact. I would have to say this is my toughest loss so far this year since I was pretty confident in this one and the pitchers performed according to plan.

Portfolio: $836 (-9.2% return)
S&P 500: $1089 (18.2% return)

Today's Games (6/1)

Philadelphia (+120) @ Atlanta (-140)
Cincinnati (+110) @ St. Louis (-130)
Arizona (+110) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-130)

In the first game Cole Hamels is matched up against Tim Hudson. Hamels is off to a decent start and his strikeouts are up, but so are his walks. He has gotten his walks under control the last few starts and they are right on line with his solid career average of 2.34 BB/9, and that has resulted in a 2-1 record with a 2.25 ERA over his last 3 starts. Hudson is off to a pretty solid start, but his indicators show he may be in for some trouble. His strikeout rate of 3.78 is way below his career average of 6.05 and his walk rate of 3.50 is higher than his career average of 2.78. The reason he has been pitching well is a depressed hit rate. It's currently at 6.72 compared to his career average of 8.49. Once those hits start piling up things will not be good. I know both teams are heading in opposite directions right now, but I'll take Hamels as an underdog in this matchup anyday.

In the second game Johnny Cueto is matched up against P.J. Walters. Cueto is off to a fine start and his indicators, especially lately, are looking pretty good. Walters is making his 3rd career start and really has not had an impressive last couple of years in the minors. In his last 2 seasons in AAA his ERA was 4.87 and 4.54. I don't think I have to over think this one. I'll take the underdog with the hot pitcher over the average minor league pitcher. The only reason the Reds are underdogs is because they seem to have a mental block against the Cardinals, but I think this is the year where they overcome that and I think I can start with this game.

In the third game Dan Haren is matched up against John Ely. Haren has probably been the biggest tough luck starter (Greinke is right up there) in the game. His indicators are off the charts, but his hit rate is also off the charts and he has allowed a high percentage of home runs. I do not see his hit rate and home run rate staying at this pace. With average or even a little luck he should be in the CY Young race. Ely is off to a great start and has really impressed a lot of people. He has not walked too many batter and gets his fair share of strikeouts. His minor league numbers show he can command the zone, but not as good as he has shown so far. I expect him to start handing out some free passes and things to get a little bumpy. In this game I see two pitchers that the law of averages will effect. I like Haren as the underdog.

Bets

$10 PHI +120
$10 CIN +110
$10 ARI +110

Broke Even

Ended up breaking even with the Giants winning and the Rockies losing.

Betting: $965 (4.8% return)
S&P 500: 895 (-2.8% return)

Today's Picks

Philly (+150) @ TB (-170)
Texas (+150) @ ARI (-170)

In the first game Joe Blanton is matched up against Matt Garza. Although Garza has an ERA about 1.5 points lower than Blanton, I think they are having similar years. Both K/BB ratios are about the same, but Blanton is giving up more hits than normal while the opposite is true of Garza. Both will eventually regress to the mean. Philly just came off a big win after being in a big slump and I think they will keep it going tonight. At +150, with two equal pitchers, I think it's a solid play.

The second game has Vicente Padilla going up against Dan Haren. Padilla is having his worst season in terms of K/9 and BB/9 which tells me his skills are deterierating. Haren on the other hand is probably having the best season out of any pitcher, it's just that he hasn't received any run support. With the game being played in the National League the Rangers will have one less hitter. With the Rangers lineup being potent and Haren being dominant, I think Haren will be up to the challenge. Great pitching beats good hitting. Padilla is a fastball pitcher so the Diamonbacks should score more than 2-3 runs. I usually don't like to pick favorite's this heavy, but at -170 I think it's a great deal. The line should probably be -200 with the way Haren is throwing.

Bets

$20 PHI +150
$34 ARI -170