That was not the type of performance the Phillies hoped to see from their newly acquired pitcher. Maybe the whole trade process affected in mentally, which was probably the case since he's been with the Astros for so long.
Portfolio: $755 (-18% return)
S&P 500: $1102 (19.7% return)
Today's Games
Philadelphia (-170) @ Washington (+150)
Florida (-140) @ San Diego (+120)
In the first game Cole Hamels is matched up against John Lannan. Hamels is having an average year and can't seem to turn the corner. His strikeouts are up but so are his walks. His hits are down so that also tells me his stuff is better this year. I like him to be strong down the stretch. Lannan was just called up since Strasburg was put on the DL. Lannan really struggled when he was up earlier this year and that does not surprise me. He can't miss bats. His strikeout rate was 2.88 per nine when he was sent down. That's not good when facing a hot Phillies lineup.
In the second game Josh Johnson is facing Jon Garland. Johnson is one of the leading CY young candidates in the NL and his indicators show it. He let up more than 2 earned runs (3) in his last start for the first time in a while. I look for his dominance to continue against a light hitting Padres team. Garland has put up some good numbers recently and very well could continue that. He is the ace of this staff so far and I expect this to be a good game, but I just don't think the Padres can score enough runs off Johnson.
Bets
$34 PHI -170
$14 FLA -140
Showing posts with label cole hamels. Show all posts
Showing posts with label cole hamels. Show all posts
Sunday, August 1, 2010
Monday, May 31, 2010
Verlander Out Pitches Cahill But Loses, Down $34
Justin Verlander pitched pretty good as he allowed 7 baserunners (6 hits and 1 walk) over 7 innings while striking out 8, but he allowed 3 runs. Cahill on the other hand allowed 9 baserunners (5 hits and 4 walks) in 6 1/3 innings while striking out 3, but he somehow only gave up 1 run. Verlander's start would produce a win 8 out of 10 times going against Cahill's, but yesterday was not was not one of those 8 days. The game was delayed for a few hours due to rain and that may have had some impact. I would have to say this is my toughest loss so far this year since I was pretty confident in this one and the pitchers performed according to plan.
Portfolio: $836 (-9.2% return)
S&P 500: $1089 (18.2% return)
Today's Games (6/1)
Philadelphia (+120) @ Atlanta (-140)
Cincinnati (+110) @ St. Louis (-130)
Arizona (+110) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-130)
In the first game Cole Hamels is matched up against Tim Hudson. Hamels is off to a decent start and his strikeouts are up, but so are his walks. He has gotten his walks under control the last few starts and they are right on line with his solid career average of 2.34 BB/9, and that has resulted in a 2-1 record with a 2.25 ERA over his last 3 starts. Hudson is off to a pretty solid start, but his indicators show he may be in for some trouble. His strikeout rate of 3.78 is way below his career average of 6.05 and his walk rate of 3.50 is higher than his career average of 2.78. The reason he has been pitching well is a depressed hit rate. It's currently at 6.72 compared to his career average of 8.49. Once those hits start piling up things will not be good. I know both teams are heading in opposite directions right now, but I'll take Hamels as an underdog in this matchup anyday.
In the second game Johnny Cueto is matched up against P.J. Walters. Cueto is off to a fine start and his indicators, especially lately, are looking pretty good. Walters is making his 3rd career start and really has not had an impressive last couple of years in the minors. In his last 2 seasons in AAA his ERA was 4.87 and 4.54. I don't think I have to over think this one. I'll take the underdog with the hot pitcher over the average minor league pitcher. The only reason the Reds are underdogs is because they seem to have a mental block against the Cardinals, but I think this is the year where they overcome that and I think I can start with this game.
In the third game Dan Haren is matched up against John Ely. Haren has probably been the biggest tough luck starter (Greinke is right up there) in the game. His indicators are off the charts, but his hit rate is also off the charts and he has allowed a high percentage of home runs. I do not see his hit rate and home run rate staying at this pace. With average or even a little luck he should be in the CY Young race. Ely is off to a great start and has really impressed a lot of people. He has not walked too many batter and gets his fair share of strikeouts. His minor league numbers show he can command the zone, but not as good as he has shown so far. I expect him to start handing out some free passes and things to get a little bumpy. In this game I see two pitchers that the law of averages will effect. I like Haren as the underdog.
Bets
$10 PHI +120
$10 CIN +110
$10 ARI +110
Portfolio: $836 (-9.2% return)
S&P 500: $1089 (18.2% return)
Today's Games (6/1)
Philadelphia (+120) @ Atlanta (-140)
Cincinnati (+110) @ St. Louis (-130)
Arizona (+110) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-130)
In the first game Cole Hamels is matched up against Tim Hudson. Hamels is off to a decent start and his strikeouts are up, but so are his walks. He has gotten his walks under control the last few starts and they are right on line with his solid career average of 2.34 BB/9, and that has resulted in a 2-1 record with a 2.25 ERA over his last 3 starts. Hudson is off to a pretty solid start, but his indicators show he may be in for some trouble. His strikeout rate of 3.78 is way below his career average of 6.05 and his walk rate of 3.50 is higher than his career average of 2.78. The reason he has been pitching well is a depressed hit rate. It's currently at 6.72 compared to his career average of 8.49. Once those hits start piling up things will not be good. I know both teams are heading in opposite directions right now, but I'll take Hamels as an underdog in this matchup anyday.
In the second game Johnny Cueto is matched up against P.J. Walters. Cueto is off to a fine start and his indicators, especially lately, are looking pretty good. Walters is making his 3rd career start and really has not had an impressive last couple of years in the minors. In his last 2 seasons in AAA his ERA was 4.87 and 4.54. I don't think I have to over think this one. I'll take the underdog with the hot pitcher over the average minor league pitcher. The only reason the Reds are underdogs is because they seem to have a mental block against the Cardinals, but I think this is the year where they overcome that and I think I can start with this game.
In the third game Dan Haren is matched up against John Ely. Haren has probably been the biggest tough luck starter (Greinke is right up there) in the game. His indicators are off the charts, but his hit rate is also off the charts and he has allowed a high percentage of home runs. I do not see his hit rate and home run rate staying at this pace. With average or even a little luck he should be in the CY Young race. Ely is off to a great start and has really impressed a lot of people. He has not walked too many batter and gets his fair share of strikeouts. His minor league numbers show he can command the zone, but not as good as he has shown so far. I expect him to start handing out some free passes and things to get a little bumpy. In this game I see two pitchers that the law of averages will effect. I like Haren as the underdog.
Bets
$10 PHI +120
$10 CIN +110
$10 ARI +110
Saturday, October 31, 2009
No Action Yesterday
Portfolio: $915 (-0.7% return)
S&P 500: $1036 (12.5% return)
Today's Games
New York Yankees (-120) @ Philadelphia (+110)
In Game 3 of the World Series Andy Pettitte is matched up against Cole Hamels. Pettitte has pitched well this postseason and wrapped up the ALCS against the Angels last week. Hamels has continued to struggle as he is giving up a higher than normal amount of hits. The Phillies have been really tough at home the last 2 postseasons and the Yankees still look like they are playing tighter than normal. I like the Phillies to take Game 3 at home as I think they are the better all around team and have more confidence.
Bets
$20 PHI +110
S&P 500: $1036 (12.5% return)
Today's Games
New York Yankees (-120) @ Philadelphia (+110)
In Game 3 of the World Series Andy Pettitte is matched up against Cole Hamels. Pettitte has pitched well this postseason and wrapped up the ALCS against the Angels last week. Hamels has continued to struggle as he is giving up a higher than normal amount of hits. The Phillies have been really tough at home the last 2 postseasons and the Yankees still look like they are playing tighter than normal. I like the Phillies to take Game 3 at home as I think they are the better all around team and have more confidence.
Bets
$20 PHI +110
Wednesday, October 21, 2009
No Action Yesterday
Well the Yankees look like they will be heading to the World Series as they are playing loose and with confidence. The Phillies have a chance to wrap up their series tonight at home with their ace on the mound.
Portfolio: $923 (0.2% return)
S&P 500: $1091 (18.5% return)
Today's Games
Los Angeles Dodgers (+130) @ Philadelphia (-150)
With the Phillies up 3 games to 1 Vicente Padilla is matched up against Cole Hamels. Padilla has been a real find for the Dodgers late in the season and has pitched really well this postseason, but his current success is not sustainable. Hamels has uncharacteristically struggled this postseason but he and the Phillies smell blood and should put the Dodgers away tonight at home.
Bets
$30 PHI -150
Portfolio: $923 (0.2% return)
S&P 500: $1091 (18.5% return)
Today's Games
Los Angeles Dodgers (+130) @ Philadelphia (-150)
With the Phillies up 3 games to 1 Vicente Padilla is matched up against Cole Hamels. Padilla has been a real find for the Dodgers late in the season and has pitched really well this postseason, but his current success is not sustainable. Hamels has uncharacteristically struggled this postseason but he and the Phillies smell blood and should put the Dodgers away tonight at home.
Bets
$30 PHI -150
Wednesday, September 23, 2009
Dodgers and Royals Win Easily
Both games went just as I predicted and my portfolio gained $40.
Portfolio: $1177 (27.8% return)
S&P 500: $1072 (16.4% return)
Today’s Games
Philadelphia (-170) @ Florida (+150)
Boston (-200) @ Kansas City (+170)
In the first game Cole Hamels is matched up against Rick VandenHurk. After struggling for most of the year by his standards, Cole Hamels has found his groove as of late. During his struggles he was the victim of bad luck as his hit rate was high for no reason, but that has turned around recently. His indicators are really strong over his last 4 starts in which he has gone 3-1 with an 1.82 ERA and all signs point to him keeping it up. VandenHurk has also pitched well lately and has decent stuff, but gives out the free pass a little too frequently. He is also a fly ball pitcher which does not bode well when facing the Phillies. He has kept the ball in the park in his last 3 starts, but I do not see him keeping that up. I like the Phillies with their ace in postseason form to take this one.
In the second game Josh Beckett is matched up against Luke Hochevar. Beckett has had an up and down season, but he’s currently on the up part and looks to be gearing up for the playoffs. His indicators are strong and his homerun woes are behind him so I look for him to continue to deal. Hochevar is inconsistent but he’s coming off a complete game, 3 hit shutout. He has the potential to be a solid number 3 and possibly number 2 starter, but you never know what you’re going to get from him start to start. His indicators tell me that his ERA should be lower than 5.79. He has had 4 really good starts this year but has laid an egg in the following start 3 times. I look for Beckett to dominate a weak lineup and Hochevar to lay another egg after a solid performance.
Bets
$34 PHI -170
$40 BOS -200
Portfolio: $1177 (27.8% return)
S&P 500: $1072 (16.4% return)
Today’s Games
Philadelphia (-170) @ Florida (+150)
Boston (-200) @ Kansas City (+170)
In the first game Cole Hamels is matched up against Rick VandenHurk. After struggling for most of the year by his standards, Cole Hamels has found his groove as of late. During his struggles he was the victim of bad luck as his hit rate was high for no reason, but that has turned around recently. His indicators are really strong over his last 4 starts in which he has gone 3-1 with an 1.82 ERA and all signs point to him keeping it up. VandenHurk has also pitched well lately and has decent stuff, but gives out the free pass a little too frequently. He is also a fly ball pitcher which does not bode well when facing the Phillies. He has kept the ball in the park in his last 3 starts, but I do not see him keeping that up. I like the Phillies with their ace in postseason form to take this one.
In the second game Josh Beckett is matched up against Luke Hochevar. Beckett has had an up and down season, but he’s currently on the up part and looks to be gearing up for the playoffs. His indicators are strong and his homerun woes are behind him so I look for him to continue to deal. Hochevar is inconsistent but he’s coming off a complete game, 3 hit shutout. He has the potential to be a solid number 3 and possibly number 2 starter, but you never know what you’re going to get from him start to start. His indicators tell me that his ERA should be lower than 5.79. He has had 4 really good starts this year but has laid an egg in the following start 3 times. I look for Beckett to dominate a weak lineup and Hochevar to lay another egg after a solid performance.
Bets
$34 PHI -170
$40 BOS -200
Wednesday, July 1, 2009
2-1, Up $13
I was able to gain a little even though the Red Sox blew a 10-1 lead, Scott Baker labored through 5, and Albert Pujols hit 2 homeruns.
Portfolio: $1006 (9.2% return)
S&P 500: $919 (-0.2% return)
Today’s Games
New York Mets (+180) @ Milwaukee (-220)
Philadelphia (-110) @ Atlanta (-100)
The first game has Mike Pelfrey matched up against Yovani Gallardo. Pelfrey is a ground ball pitcher who pitches to contact. He won’t strikeout many or walk many, and he allows very few homeruns. Keeping the ball on the ground and in the ballpark and is key when facing the power hitting Brewers. The Mets lineup is banged up, but they draw a decent amount of walks and strikeout less than any other team. This should play out well against Gallardo, who seems to have lost his control lately. You can see my analysis on Gallardo from 6/26. He has a depressed hit rate and is walking too many batters. If the Mets can lay off his curveball, which he hasn’t been able to get over the plate, they should be able to sit on fastballs and score some runs. This game may come down to the bullpens. At +180, this is a good value play.
The second game has Cole Hamels going up against Jair Jurrjens. Hamels has had some really bad luck leading to a 4-4 record with a 4.44 ERA. His 8.44 K/9 and 1.78 BB/9 rates are the best of his career, but his 10.89 H/9 rate is way above his 8.24 H/9 career average. Balls will eventually stop finding green at this rate for opposing hitters. Jurrjens is a solid major league pitcher who gets a lot of ground balls and has a 5-6 record with a 2.93 ERA. His K/9, BB/9, and H/9 rates are all seem to be normal given his brief history. His ERA was 3.68 last year, so his 2.93 ERA this year tells me he’s stranding more base runners than normal, which is mainly luck. The Phillies have been in a funk as of late and their ace should pick them up tonight.
Bets
$20 NYM +180
$22 PHI -110
I will be out of town the next 5 days, so I’m not sure how much I’ll post.
Portfolio: $1006 (9.2% return)
S&P 500: $919 (-0.2% return)
Today’s Games
New York Mets (+180) @ Milwaukee (-220)
Philadelphia (-110) @ Atlanta (-100)
The first game has Mike Pelfrey matched up against Yovani Gallardo. Pelfrey is a ground ball pitcher who pitches to contact. He won’t strikeout many or walk many, and he allows very few homeruns. Keeping the ball on the ground and in the ballpark and is key when facing the power hitting Brewers. The Mets lineup is banged up, but they draw a decent amount of walks and strikeout less than any other team. This should play out well against Gallardo, who seems to have lost his control lately. You can see my analysis on Gallardo from 6/26. He has a depressed hit rate and is walking too many batters. If the Mets can lay off his curveball, which he hasn’t been able to get over the plate, they should be able to sit on fastballs and score some runs. This game may come down to the bullpens. At +180, this is a good value play.
The second game has Cole Hamels going up against Jair Jurrjens. Hamels has had some really bad luck leading to a 4-4 record with a 4.44 ERA. His 8.44 K/9 and 1.78 BB/9 rates are the best of his career, but his 10.89 H/9 rate is way above his 8.24 H/9 career average. Balls will eventually stop finding green at this rate for opposing hitters. Jurrjens is a solid major league pitcher who gets a lot of ground balls and has a 5-6 record with a 2.93 ERA. His K/9, BB/9, and H/9 rates are all seem to be normal given his brief history. His ERA was 3.68 last year, so his 2.93 ERA this year tells me he’s stranding more base runners than normal, which is mainly luck. The Phillies have been in a funk as of late and their ace should pick them up tonight.
Bets
$20 NYM +180
$22 PHI -110
I will be out of town the next 5 days, so I’m not sure how much I’ll post.
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