Forgot To Update Yesterday

Sorry that I forgot to update yesterday. By the time I remembered the second game was already starting. I would have basically broke even as I liked both underdogs yesterday. The Super Bowl will be good and right now I am leaning with the Colts -5. The Saints got lucky yesterday as they recovered 3 fumbles, and that Favre decided to throw across the field instead of run. But before that play there was no excuse for them to have 12 guys in the huddle, and before that it seemed like Childress was fine with settling for a 50 yard field goal to win the game. I would probably lay most of the blame on Childress. Horrible end of game management. The Saints have been getting a lot of turnovers this year, and that is kind of a fluke stat. The Rams were like that in 1999 when they won the Super Bowl. The whole season I have waiting for the Saints to stop getting fluke turnovers, but it has not happened so maybe it is really their year. But I have to think the Colts will protect the ball. And I can almost guarantee that next year the Saints will not force as many turnovers as they have this year. After the Super Bowl, I probably won't have any bets until baseball season.

Portfolio: $859 (-6.7% return)
S&P 500: $1092 (18.6% return)

Today's Games

None

Wow, Chargers Lose to Jets! Down Another $10

Looks like I can really pick'em this playoffs. Usually I do well in the playoffs, but not this year. I really thought the Chargers would win the Super Bowl, but now I think it's up in the air. The games next week should be good. Looks like I have dug myself a deep hole in trying to catch the S&P 500. The S&P 500 hasn't really moved much in the last couple months, so at least it's not that far out of reach.

Portfolio: $859 (-6.7% return)
S&P 500: $1136 (23.3% return)

Today's Games

None

Warner Gets Roughed Up, Cardinals Lose - Down $10

The Saints came out firing and did not let up. It was almost as if there was no defense out there for the Cardinals.

Portfolio: $869 (-5.6% return)

S&P 500: $1136 (23.3% return)

Today's Games

NY Jets @ San Diego (-9)

I've been wrong most of this NFL season so I'm not sure if my reasons even matter, but I think the Chargers will dominate this game against Jets. I can't wait for baseball season.

Bets

$11 SD -9

NFL Playoffs

Portfolio: $880 (-4.5% return)

S&P 500: $1136 (23.3% return)

Today's Games

Arizona @ New Orleans (-7)

A hot Kurt Warner in a dome vs. a team that seems to have lost most of it's momentum? I'll take the 7 points here. I think the Saints will probably win, but I think it'll be a struggle. It might take a quarter or two for them to get in a rhythm. The Cardinals on the other hand are as hot as you can be on offense, but their defense looks like it has a lot of holes. This should be a good game. I really don't know what to think about the Ravens/Colts game, but I think the Colts will win.

Bets

$11 ARI +7

NFL Playoffs

So I did like the Cowboys last night but I forgot to update my blog. I think the Cowboys might be the team to beat in the NFC with the way their defense is playing. I'm interested to see what the line will be in their game next week against the Vikings. I do not like any games today, although I was thinking about taking the Patriots -4, but both teams have been so up and down this season I cannot get a read. In the other game between the Packers and Cardinals I have no clue what to expect, but it should be a good game to watch.

Portfolio: $880 (-4.5% return)

S&P 500: $1145 (24.3% return)

Today's Games

None

Iowa Dominates, Down $20

I couldn't be more off on my prediction of that game last night. Georgia Tech could not do anything on offense, and Iowa looked really good all around. I can't seem to break above the $921 mark, but hopefully I can do it this weekend with the NFL playoffs.

Porfolio: $880 (-4.5% return)
S&P 500: $1137 (23.5% return)

Today's Games

None

Boise Wins, Up $10

That was a pretty good defensive battle last night. I've always thought Boise was a fun team to watch. They execute so well.

Portfolio: $900 (-2.3% return)
S&P 500: $1133 (23% return)

Today’s Games

Iowa @ Georgia Tech (-5)

The Yellow Jackets have a very unique style with their option run attack and Iowa has not faced this style all year. Generally when teams face a unique style for the first time they struggle. Even a month of practice will not prepare the Hawkeyes for this attack. Georgia Tech also has the most plays of over 50 yards of anyone in college football. They don’t pass that much, but when they do they strike big as they have one of the best receivers in the country. This game will be a blowout in favor of the Yellow Jackets.

Bets

$22 GT -5

3-2, Down $14

I won the wrong games. I don’t know why I didn’t bet all the same. Oh well, I think I will fare decent in the playoffs. I do like the Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl tonight in my first college football game of the year. I also like Georgia Tech in Tuesdays Orange Bowl.

Portfolio: $890 (-3.4% return)
S&P 500: $1115 (21.1% return)

Today’s Games

Boise St. @ TCU (-8)

The Broncos are probably the most fundamentally sound college football team and they are not afraid of the big stage. I think this will be a good game and eight points is a lot.

Bets

$11 Boise St. +8

NFL Today

This is the toughest week to bet in the NFL. The first two weeks are tough, but this is really tough. But I do like a couple of games today. I need to get past the break even point of $921 today, and I usually do well in the playoffs so hopefully this is the start of a little run.

Portfolio: $904 (-1.8% return)

S&P 500: $1115 (21.1% return)

Today's Games

Indianapolis @ Buffalo (-8)

Jacksonville @ Cleveland (-2)

Washington @ San Diego (-3.5)

Tennessee @ Seattle (+6)

Cincinnati @ NY Jets (-10)

I like the favorite in all the games above. The Colts will be playing like this is a preseason game plus the weather will be cold and snowy. The Colts are not a cold weather running team, so I expect them to lose big. The Jaguars are basically out of the playoffs and the Browns have been one of the hotter teams in the NFL lately. The weather will be about the same as in Buffalo and I just don't think the Jaguars will be up for this game. The Redskins are a hopeless team playing all the way on the west coast. I don't care if the Chargers play their backups, they should still win easily. Chris Johnson is trying to get to 2000 yards rushing so the Titans will have something to play for. The Bengals will be playing like it's a preseason game and the Jets need to win. This game will be lopsided.

Bets

$11 BUF -8

$11 CLE -2

$22 SD -3.5

$22 TEN -6

$11 NYJ -10

Giants Win Big, Up $20

The Giants offense continued to be in sync and their defense finally stepped up. Those front four looked better then they have all year and Eli Manning is playing some of the best football of his career. It looks like he has taken his game to a whole new level this year. I'll be out of town for the next week or so, so I'm not sure if I'll have any games. But we'll see.

Also, is it baseball season yet? I need to catch up to the S&P 500.

Portfolio: $904 (-1.8% return)
S&P 500: $1114 (21% return)

Today's Games

None

Good Games Yesterday, But No Bets

It was a pretty exciting day yesterday and I'm glad I didn't bet any games. The couple of game I was thinking of did not turn out right. But I do like the game tonight. The playoff race in the AFC is so cloudy right now while the NFC is basically set. The Giants are the only team not currently in a playoff slot that still has a chance.

Portfolio: $884 (-4% return)
S&P 500: $1102 (19.7% return)

Today's Game

NY Giants @ Washington (+3)

This game looks like a trap, but I'm not buying it. I like the Giants in a must win game. They have proven that they are one of the better road teams over the last couple years. It looked like last week they had a good rhythm on offense and I see them keeping that up. The Redskins are playing better, but I can see them getting run over by a hungry team. I have no problem giving the points on the road.

Bet

$22 NYG -3

No Games Today

I don't see any games I like. This week looks tough as there are a lot of high lines. The only low home dog is tomorrow night and I might actually like the Giants, but for today I do not see any good bets. Check back tomorrow though as I'll probably bet that game.

Portfolio: $884 (-4% return)
S&P 500: $1102 (19.7% return)

Today's Games

None

Rough Day, Down $44

Wow, that’s pretty tough to go 0-4. It’s just as tough as going 4-0. I guess I am just not seeing things right. I was going to bet on the 49ers tonight, but when things are going bad its best just to take a step back instead of trying to get what you lost back. There is all the time in the world to gain losses back, so whenever you feel the urge to gain a loss back it means you should take a step back.

The Bengals really surprised me, and it’s obvious their weakness is the inability to stretch the field. They do not have a home run threat in the passing game as Chad Johnson has become more of a possession receiver. The main reason they lost was that they could not stop Adrian Peterson, but no team really can. The Bucs game looked like a trap, but the trap never went off. I bet if Gradkowski didn’t get hurt the Raiders game would have went differently. You can’t really do anything about injuries. The Eagles got two scores, defense and special teams, that proved to be too much for the Giants to overcome.

Portfolio: $884 (-4% return)
S&P 500: $1106 (20.1% return)

Today’s Games

None

NFL Today

There are a handful and games I like today and hopefully I will do better than last week. I really don't want to fall below even again.

Portfolio: $928 (0.8% return)

S&P 500: $1106 (20.1% return)

Today's Games

Cincinnati @ Minnesota (-7)

NY Jets @ Tampa Bay (+4)

Washington @ Oakland (+1)

Philadelphia @ NY Giants (+1)

I'm surprised the line is this high since the Bengals defense is so good. I don't think the Vikings will be able to put up a lot of points, and the Bengals play a ball controlling game so the game should be close. I'm not sure who will win, but I like it to be close. Plus this is the time of year that Favre seems to wear down.

The Jets are back in the playoff hunt and have a solid running game and defense, but on the road against a team that seems to be improving might not be good for them. I like this game to be close and the Bucs to pull it out in the end. The Jets struggles in the passing game will do them in.

The Redskins and Raiders have both been playing better recently and this should be a good game today in a game that means nothing. I like the Raiders at home since this is the first time the Redskins have had to head West for a game. Usually if a team is not used to the trip they will lose.

In what should be a good game tonight I like the home team. I'll take Eli Manning over Donovan McNabb in a big game any day.

Bets

$11 CIN +7

$11 TB +4

$11 OAK +1

$11 NYG +1

Packers Win A Sloppy Game

I'm down $11 from yesterday and $24 for the weekend, not a good week. I was right about this being a tough week, but I was wrong about thinking I can win. As of now, next week does not look too easy as there are a lot of home favorites.

Portfolio: $928 (0.8% return)
S&P 500: $1103 (19.8% return)

Today's Games

None

2-3, Down $13

Not a good day yesterday, but also not a horrible day. I should have stuck with all the low home dogs. Also, I'm pretty sure 10 out of 14 dogs covered yesterday, so it was probably a good day for sports books as most people bet favorites.

Portfolio: $939 (2% return)
S&P 500: $1106 (20.1% return)

Today's Game

Baltimore @ Green Bay (-3.5)

This should be another good Monday Night matchup as both teams are in the thick of the playoff race. I believe the Packers will struggle on defense as injuries are catching up the them. The Ravens defense is not what it used to be, but they still have big play capability. The Ravens offense is led by Ray Rice and I think he will have a huge game tonight. Aaron Rogers and the Green Bay passing attack is good, but they will be one dimensional tonight. I expect this to be a higher scoring game, with the Ravens able to move the ball better.

Bets

$11 BAL +3.5

NFL Today

This week looks pretty tough, but I should be able to make some gains for my portfolio.

Portfolio: $952 (3.4% return)

S&P 500: $1106 (20.1% return)

Today's Games

Houston @ Jacksonville (+2)

Tennessee @ Indianapolis (-7)

San Diego @ Cleveland (+14)

Dallas @ New York Giants (+1)

Minnesota @ Arizona (+3.5)

In a game that will be huge in shaping the AFC Wild Card, I like the more talented team. Although I generally do not bet on low road favorites, I think the Texas are a very talented team that struggle to win against superior foes. They seem to win games that they should, and the Jaguars have been playing a little over their head this year. The Jags are an average team, but not much better. I feel comfortable laying the 2 points on the talented road team.

The Colts just find a way to win every week, but I believe that will come to end end sometime soon. The Texans had that game last week and choked it away at home. The Titans are playing as well as any team right now and the way to beat the Colts is to control the ball and be more physical than them. I think the Titans can do that. I don't know if they'll win, but I like the 7 points.

The Chargers/Browns game will be a blowout. With the Browns losing Shaun Rogers they now have no threat on the defense, and they already had no threat on offense. Look for the Chargers to pressure Quinn like crazy and dominate the entire game.

I like the Giants in this game because are the low home dog. I think these teams are pretty even, so I'll take the home team.

In what should be a good game tonight, I like the home dog getting 3.5 points. Warner should be playing and the Arizona defense should slow down the Vikings offense.

Bets

$11 HOU -2

$11 TEN +7

$11 SD -14

$11 NYG +1

$11 ARI +3.5

Off Week, 1-2 Down $12

I thought I would at least go 2-2 yesterday but the Texans choked and the Steelers played way better than I thought with a young quarterback making his first start. The game tonight should be a good one, and if you only watched ESPN the last week you would have thought this was the only game on the schedule for Week 12. I'm staying away from this game because I'm not sold on the Saints defense, so I expect this to be a shootout with the team that plays best in the fourth quarter to win. The Saints have been getting interceptions this year which is more of a luck stat so I do not see them keeping it up. The Patriots have one of their weakest defenses in years, but they are playing better every week.

Portfolio: $952 (3.4% return)
S&P 500: $1091 (18.5 % return)

Today's Games

None

NFL Today

These next few weeks are best weeks in the NFL as many teams will see what they are made of. This is also when most gamblers lose a lot of money.

Portfolio: $964 (4.7% return)

S&P 500: $1091 (18.5% return)

Today's Games

Indianapolis @ Houston (+3.5)

Miami @ Buffalo (+3.5)

Arizona @ Tennessee (-3)

Pittsburgh @ Baltimore (-7.5)

The Colts have been walking the tightrope recently and I look for them to fall off this week. They will be without Dwight Freeney today and that will let Schaub have the time to pick apart a soft secondary. The Colts have a good defense and generally do not blitz because Freeney and Mathis get such good pressure on the QB. Their defense is based around the front four getting pressure. The absence of Freeney will have an effect on the whole line. The Texans are coming off the hard fought loss and should be eager to get back on the field and pick up a win to stay in the playoff race. I'll take the points.

Miami is without their best player, Ronnie Brown, but Ricky Williams stepped it up against the Panthers last Thursday. I do not see him doing that again. The Bills are a team that doesn't quit, and it looks like Fitzpatrick is gaining some confidence along with the team. I like the Bills with the points at home.

It looks like Kurt Warner will play today and that is huge for the Cardinals, but they happen to be facing one of the hottest teams at home. Vince Young seems to do whatever it takes to win and Chris Johnson is maybe the biggest home run threat in the game. The Titans defense has stepped it up a notch, and they will be tough to beat at home. The Cardinals looked to have taken the step as a good team with a solid defense and wins on the road this year, I just think the Titans have too much going for them right now.

The Steelers are in trouble as Troy Polumalu is out again and so is Ben Roethlisberger. They are starting rookie Dennis Dixon at QB and we all know what the Ravens defense does to rookie QB's. I like the Ravens big as I do not see the Steelers scoring too many points.

Bets

$11 HOU +3.5

$11 BUF +3.5

$11 TEN -3

$11 BAL -7.5

Titans Win, Up $10

That was a pretty good game last night. Vince Young looks like he did his rookie season, except better. And it looks like the Texans missed Owen Daniels. I'm slowly catching up to the S&P 500.

Portfolio: $964 (4.7% return)
S&P 500: $1106 (20% return)

Today's Games

None