First Games of the Year

Portfolio: $859 (-6.7% return)
S&P 500: $1115 (21.1% return)

Today's Games

Tampa Bay (+130) @ New York Yankees (-150)
Minnesota (+120) @ Boston (-140)

In the first game James Shields is matched up against Andy Pettitte. Both pitchers are off to fast starts, but it looks like only Shields will be able to keep it up. Shields strikeout rate is up and his walk and hit rates are normal. His 9.83 K/9 rate is up significantly from 6.84 last year and his career average of 7.32. Pettitte on the other hand has a strikeout rate below his average, walk rate above, and hit rate below. That means his 1.79 ERA is due for a big correction. With Tampa being the dog, I think they are a good play.

In the second game Francisco Liriano is matched up against Jon Lester. Liriano is off to a solid start and has the indicators to back it up. His strikeout rate isn't what it was 3 years ago, but it's still pretty good, and his walk rate is at about the same level. He looks like he is fully recovered from his surgery. Lester has had an up and down season so far, and his walk rate is the main culprit. His walk rate is up almost 50% from the last two years, and that can lead to inconsistency. With two solid front line starters I'll take the one with the better control, especially with him being the dog.

Bets

$20 TB +130
$20 MIN +120

I Plan To Start Next Week

I plan on picking a few games here and there starting sometime next week.

Baseball Has Started

I just wanted to let the few of you who follow know that I will probably not be posting as frequently this year. And my first post probably won't be until a couple weeks so I can see trends and spot variances. I am getting into stock trading and that will take a little time away from this. I have learned to be a little more patient through stock trading and I plan to take that approach in my baseball picks this year, so that's the reason for fewer posts. I almost felt at times last year that I needed to find at least one game a day, but that's not the best way to build equity. I also learned to focus on a small section of the market so I can get to know them really well and I plan on doing that for baseball too, so don't be surprised if I am constantly picking teams within a division. I currently have a handful of followers, and hopefully that will grow this year. If it does not or dwindles down, then I'm not sure how much longer I will keep it up. Check back in a week or so.

Portfolio: $859 (-6.7% return)
S&P 500: $1186 (28.8% return)

Forgot To Update Yesterday

Sorry that I forgot to update yesterday. By the time I remembered the second game was already starting. I would have basically broke even as I liked both underdogs yesterday. The Super Bowl will be good and right now I am leaning with the Colts -5. The Saints got lucky yesterday as they recovered 3 fumbles, and that Favre decided to throw across the field instead of run. But before that play there was no excuse for them to have 12 guys in the huddle, and before that it seemed like Childress was fine with settling for a 50 yard field goal to win the game. I would probably lay most of the blame on Childress. Horrible end of game management. The Saints have been getting a lot of turnovers this year, and that is kind of a fluke stat. The Rams were like that in 1999 when they won the Super Bowl. The whole season I have waiting for the Saints to stop getting fluke turnovers, but it has not happened so maybe it is really their year. But I have to think the Colts will protect the ball. And I can almost guarantee that next year the Saints will not force as many turnovers as they have this year. After the Super Bowl, I probably won't have any bets until baseball season.

Portfolio: $859 (-6.7% return)
S&P 500: $1092 (18.6% return)

Today's Games

None

Wow, Chargers Lose to Jets! Down Another $10

Looks like I can really pick'em this playoffs. Usually I do well in the playoffs, but not this year. I really thought the Chargers would win the Super Bowl, but now I think it's up in the air. The games next week should be good. Looks like I have dug myself a deep hole in trying to catch the S&P 500. The S&P 500 hasn't really moved much in the last couple months, so at least it's not that far out of reach.

Portfolio: $859 (-6.7% return)
S&P 500: $1136 (23.3% return)

Today's Games

None

Warner Gets Roughed Up, Cardinals Lose - Down $10

The Saints came out firing and did not let up. It was almost as if there was no defense out there for the Cardinals.

Portfolio: $869 (-5.6% return)

S&P 500: $1136 (23.3% return)

Today's Games

NY Jets @ San Diego (-9)

I've been wrong most of this NFL season so I'm not sure if my reasons even matter, but I think the Chargers will dominate this game against Jets. I can't wait for baseball season.

Bets

$11 SD -9

NFL Playoffs

Portfolio: $880 (-4.5% return)

S&P 500: $1136 (23.3% return)

Today's Games

Arizona @ New Orleans (-7)

A hot Kurt Warner in a dome vs. a team that seems to have lost most of it's momentum? I'll take the 7 points here. I think the Saints will probably win, but I think it'll be a struggle. It might take a quarter or two for them to get in a rhythm. The Cardinals on the other hand are as hot as you can be on offense, but their defense looks like it has a lot of holes. This should be a good game. I really don't know what to think about the Ravens/Colts game, but I think the Colts will win.

Bets

$11 ARI +7

NFL Playoffs

So I did like the Cowboys last night but I forgot to update my blog. I think the Cowboys might be the team to beat in the NFC with the way their defense is playing. I'm interested to see what the line will be in their game next week against the Vikings. I do not like any games today, although I was thinking about taking the Patriots -4, but both teams have been so up and down this season I cannot get a read. In the other game between the Packers and Cardinals I have no clue what to expect, but it should be a good game to watch.

Portfolio: $880 (-4.5% return)

S&P 500: $1145 (24.3% return)

Today's Games

None

Iowa Dominates, Down $20

I couldn't be more off on my prediction of that game last night. Georgia Tech could not do anything on offense, and Iowa looked really good all around. I can't seem to break above the $921 mark, but hopefully I can do it this weekend with the NFL playoffs.

Porfolio: $880 (-4.5% return)
S&P 500: $1137 (23.5% return)

Today's Games

None

Boise Wins, Up $10

That was a pretty good defensive battle last night. I've always thought Boise was a fun team to watch. They execute so well.

Portfolio: $900 (-2.3% return)
S&P 500: $1133 (23% return)

Today’s Games

Iowa @ Georgia Tech (-5)

The Yellow Jackets have a very unique style with their option run attack and Iowa has not faced this style all year. Generally when teams face a unique style for the first time they struggle. Even a month of practice will not prepare the Hawkeyes for this attack. Georgia Tech also has the most plays of over 50 yards of anyone in college football. They don’t pass that much, but when they do they strike big as they have one of the best receivers in the country. This game will be a blowout in favor of the Yellow Jackets.

Bets

$22 GT -5