Phillies/Marlins Postponed

My bet was void last night due to the game being postponed.

Portfolio: $1031 (11.9% return)
S&P 500: $940 (2.1% return)

Today's Game

San Francisco (-110) @ Pittsburgh (-100)

In the one game I like today Matt Cain is matched up against Zach Duke. Cain is a solid pitcher who's strikeout, walk, hit, and ground ball rates are all normal. He is a fly ball pitcher who benefits from playing in San Francisco, but PNC should be good to him also as it is big pitchers park. His ERA of 2.38 is a little low and that is due to him leaving a higher than normal percentage of runners on base. The lefty Duke is an average ground ball pitcher who's been benefiting from a low hit rate. This is odd since he's getting ground balls at the lowest rate in his career. The Pirates defense is better than years past, but not good enough to save him 2 hits per nine. His strikeout and walk rate are right on career averages. Pittsburgh is going for the sweep against a veteran Giants team that has scored 1 run in the last 23 innings. The Pirates offense has not been much better, scoring 4 runs in that time. Both pitchers ERA are better than they should be, but I think Cain's is more sustainable. This could be another low scoring affair, but I think the Giants will prevail this time as they don't want to get swept. I have nothing against Zach Duke as it seems I bet against him a lot, but he is pitching over his head and the lines do not reflect that.

Bets

$22 SF -110

Bad Start

Wow, a poor 0-2 yesterday to bring my portfolio down $54. Although both games were losses, I still think they were solid plays. The Phillies/Rays game was a pitching duel up until the bottom of the 8th when the Phillies bullpen let up 5 runs to blow it open. And Dan Haren once again is the tough luck loser in a 2-1 game. It's hard to see his luck not turning around soon. He's pitching great.

I'm going to make a change to my portfolio with the beginning value being 921, the same as the S&P 500 when I started earlier this week, so it will be easier to compare the two. Also, I might post my picks, if there are any, all the way up until 7:00 pm EST.

Portfolio: 911 (-1.1% return)
S&P 500: 901 (-2.2% return)

Todays Game

St. Louis (-130) @ NY Mets (+110)

Chris Carpenter is matched up against Johan Santana in what should be a piching duel. I like Santana as the underdog at home and should not have to do any analysis, but I'll give you some. After a dip in strikeout rate in 2008, Santana has regained his level from the previous 5 years. His 2008 rate was 7.91 K/9 and this year it's at 9.77 K/9. His walk rate has continued a steady 5 year climb, but it's still pretty good at 2.72 BB/9. Carpenter has been pitching great this year, but he still hasn't found his skills from 2006, his last healthy season. His K/9 rate is 6.6 compared to 7.6 from 2004-2006. He has kept is pinpoint control, but the main factor to his great start after missing 2 seasons is his low hit rate. He's giving up 36% less hits per 9 than he did in 2004-2006. His low hit rate is unsustainable and will start to tick up.

Bets

20 NYM +110