Portfolio: $745 (-19.1% return)
S&P 500: $1049 (13.9% return)
Today's Games (Tuesday 8/31)
St. Louis (-160) @ Houston (+140)
In the only game I like today Chris Carpenter is matched up against Wandy Rodriguez. Carpenter is having a great year at 14-4 with a 2.93 ERA, but he has not been himself lately. His record and ERA might not show, but his indicators are something to keep an eye on. His strikeouts are down and his hits are up. Usually hits being up is just bad luck, but when you add in that strikeouts are down that tells me that his stuff is not as good as usual. He might turn it around, but I wouldn't be surprised if he struggles a little in this game. Throw in the fact that his road numbers are not as good as home too. Rodriguez has probably been the hottest starter in the NL since the All-Star break and has gone 1-1 with a 1.67 ERA in his last 4 starts. His indicators are rock solid, so as long as he doesn't all of a sudden lose his dominant curve ball I look for him to keep it up. I like the Astros as the underdog against a struggling Cardinals team.
Bet
$10 HOU +140
Showing posts with label chris carpenter. Show all posts
Showing posts with label chris carpenter. Show all posts
Monday, August 30, 2010
Thursday, May 27, 2010
Two Games Friday
Portfolio: $860 (-6.7% return)
S&P 500: $1103 (19.8% return)
Today's Games (5/28)
St. Louis (-140) @ Chicago Cubs (+120)
Seattle (-120) @ Los Angeles Angels (+100)
In the first game Chris Carpenter is matched up against Randy Wells. Carpenter is a top 5 starter in the National League and his indicators look pretty strong this year as his strikeout rate is at a career high. He has given up 9 long balls this year after only giving up 7 all of last year, but I actually think that number last year was a fluke. He should end up with around 20 for the season, so I don't look too much into that number. Wells is a strike thrower who is turning into a solid young starter, but he won't fan a ton of hitters. Wells is coming off what may be his best start of the season while Carpenter is coming off a poor start by his standards. I feel the line should favor the Cardinals more with Carpenter pitching.
In the second game Cliff Lee is matched up against Scott Kazmir. Lee is on top of his game again this year as his control is pinpoint. He has walked only 1 batter in 36 2/3 innings this year. His super low walk rate is the key to him being one of the top pitchers in the league. He is also striking out about a batter an inning more this year. He was roughed up pretty good in his last start, but that happens from time to time with him because he doesn't not blow batters away and keeps the ball in the zone. He usually bounces back OK from those types of outings though. Kazmir has struggled all year and there are not too many signs of him turning it around. He may be hiding an injury as his strikeout rate is by far the lowest in his career and he is walking more batters than any time in the last 4 years. I know the Mariners have one of the worst offenses in the game, but they have been waking up lately and I don't think they'll need to score too many runs with Lee on the mound. I believe the line is so low for this much of a pitching mismatch because of how poorly the Mariners have been playing.
Bets
$14 STL -140
$12 SEA -120
S&P 500: $1103 (19.8% return)
Today's Games (5/28)
St. Louis (-140) @ Chicago Cubs (+120)
Seattle (-120) @ Los Angeles Angels (+100)
In the first game Chris Carpenter is matched up against Randy Wells. Carpenter is a top 5 starter in the National League and his indicators look pretty strong this year as his strikeout rate is at a career high. He has given up 9 long balls this year after only giving up 7 all of last year, but I actually think that number last year was a fluke. He should end up with around 20 for the season, so I don't look too much into that number. Wells is a strike thrower who is turning into a solid young starter, but he won't fan a ton of hitters. Wells is coming off what may be his best start of the season while Carpenter is coming off a poor start by his standards. I feel the line should favor the Cardinals more with Carpenter pitching.
In the second game Cliff Lee is matched up against Scott Kazmir. Lee is on top of his game again this year as his control is pinpoint. He has walked only 1 batter in 36 2/3 innings this year. His super low walk rate is the key to him being one of the top pitchers in the league. He is also striking out about a batter an inning more this year. He was roughed up pretty good in his last start, but that happens from time to time with him because he doesn't not blow batters away and keeps the ball in the zone. He usually bounces back OK from those types of outings though. Kazmir has struggled all year and there are not too many signs of him turning it around. He may be hiding an injury as his strikeout rate is by far the lowest in his career and he is walking more batters than any time in the last 4 years. I know the Mariners have one of the worst offenses in the game, but they have been waking up lately and I don't think they'll need to score too many runs with Lee on the mound. I believe the line is so low for this much of a pitching mismatch because of how poorly the Mariners have been playing.
Bets
$14 STL -140
$12 SEA -120
Wednesday, October 7, 2009
Great Game Last Night
The Tigers/Twins game last night was one of the better baseball games I’ve seen in a while and that got me pumped up for the playoffs.
Portfolio: $1006 (9.2% return)
S&P 500: $1055 (14.5% return)
Today’s Games
Colorado (+120) @ Philadelphia (-140)
St. Louis (-150) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (+130)
In the first game Ubaldo Jimenez is matched up against Cliff Lee. Jimenez went 15-12 with a 3.47 ERA this season and is a very unique pitcher. He is a flamer thrower and a heavy ground ball pitcher. I do not believe anyone has the combined strikeout and ground ball ratios he does. Over his last 4 starts he is fanning 12.35 batters per nine and that is about the highest you’ll see from any pitcher. By being a heavy ground ball pitcher he keeps the ball in the park, giving up only 13 homeruns in 218 innings. His problem is walks, and he has struggled with those lately. His walk rate per nine over his last 4 starts is 4.78 compared to his 3.51 season average. Jimenez also was also successful in the postseason 2 years ago, posting a 2.25 ERA in 16 innings. Lee was unhittable in his first month with the Phillies but has been pretty average as of late. His indicators are strong, but he has struggled with a high hit rate all season and that’s not good when facing a really good hitting lineup. Lee has no previous postseason experience and really hasn’t pitched in too many big games in his career. Some pitchers take off running in these situations, but most have a learning curve. I look for the Rockies to take game 1 as Jimenez should be able to take away the Phillies biggest strength, the long ball.
In the second game Chris Carpenter is matched up against Randy Wolf. Carpenter will probably win the National League CY Young and has only had one hiccup in the second half. His indicators look solid so he should give his team a good chance to win. His career postseason numbers are really good, going 5-1 with a 2.53 ERA. Wolf has been the Dodgers most consistent starter all year long. He improved his walk rate, but what really helped him was a low hit rate. His low hit rate was not caused by an increased ground ball rate so it was most likely due to better defense, a new pitch and luck. Over his last 4 starts his indicators are really weak even though he posted a 3.33 ERA. His ERA is will rise if he continues to pitch like he has been, and that’s not good news when facing the Cardinals and Chris Carpenter. Wolf has no postseason experience and looks to be tiring down the stretch. I like the Cardinals to win game 1 pretty easy.
Bets
$20 COL +120
$30 STL -150
Portfolio: $1006 (9.2% return)
S&P 500: $1055 (14.5% return)
Today’s Games
Colorado (+120) @ Philadelphia (-140)
St. Louis (-150) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (+130)
In the first game Ubaldo Jimenez is matched up against Cliff Lee. Jimenez went 15-12 with a 3.47 ERA this season and is a very unique pitcher. He is a flamer thrower and a heavy ground ball pitcher. I do not believe anyone has the combined strikeout and ground ball ratios he does. Over his last 4 starts he is fanning 12.35 batters per nine and that is about the highest you’ll see from any pitcher. By being a heavy ground ball pitcher he keeps the ball in the park, giving up only 13 homeruns in 218 innings. His problem is walks, and he has struggled with those lately. His walk rate per nine over his last 4 starts is 4.78 compared to his 3.51 season average. Jimenez also was also successful in the postseason 2 years ago, posting a 2.25 ERA in 16 innings. Lee was unhittable in his first month with the Phillies but has been pretty average as of late. His indicators are strong, but he has struggled with a high hit rate all season and that’s not good when facing a really good hitting lineup. Lee has no previous postseason experience and really hasn’t pitched in too many big games in his career. Some pitchers take off running in these situations, but most have a learning curve. I look for the Rockies to take game 1 as Jimenez should be able to take away the Phillies biggest strength, the long ball.
In the second game Chris Carpenter is matched up against Randy Wolf. Carpenter will probably win the National League CY Young and has only had one hiccup in the second half. His indicators look solid so he should give his team a good chance to win. His career postseason numbers are really good, going 5-1 with a 2.53 ERA. Wolf has been the Dodgers most consistent starter all year long. He improved his walk rate, but what really helped him was a low hit rate. His low hit rate was not caused by an increased ground ball rate so it was most likely due to better defense, a new pitch and luck. Over his last 4 starts his indicators are really weak even though he posted a 3.33 ERA. His ERA is will rise if he continues to pitch like he has been, and that’s not good news when facing the Cardinals and Chris Carpenter. Wolf has no postseason experience and looks to be tiring down the stretch. I like the Cardinals to win game 1 pretty easy.
Bets
$20 COL +120
$30 STL -150
Saturday, August 22, 2009
Giants Take Care Of Business
That was a pretty easy $32 last night as Aaron Cook's recent struggles continued. He left with a sore shoulder after only 47 pitches, so that could be part of the reason for his struggles. Sanchez on the other hand pitched normal by his standards. He was wild, struck out 8 and left after only 5 innings due to pitch count. If he can learn to throw more strikes before the seasons end and the Giants make the playoffs their pitching will be unstoppable.
Portfolio: $1088 (18.1% return)
S&P 500: $1026 (11.4% return)
For those of you not aware, when I started my blog a couple months ago the S&P 500 was at 921, so that's what my porfolio's starting value was. As you can see, I am getting a 6.7% higher return on my money than the S&P 500 since the start of my simulation.
Today's Games
New York Yankees (-150) @ Boston (+140)
St. Louis (-210) @ San Diego (+190)
In the first game I like today the hard throwing A.J. Burnett is matched up against the rookie Junichi Tazawa. Burnett is having a decent season, although the Yankees thought they were getting a little more when they signed him this off season. His strikeouts have dropped and his walks have increased this year. He's been getting the K's lately but he is still allowing too many walks. He has had a good history against the Red Sox and was dominant in his last start against them a few weeks back. Tazawa is a contact pitcher who is making his 3rd career start and has yet to make it past the 5th inning. His stuff isn't anything special and the Yankees should have no problem scoring runs and extending their division lead this afternoon.
In the second game Chris Carpenter is matched up against Kevin Correia. Carpenter is a top CY Young candidate who has been on top of his game lately. Corriea has been solid in his last 4 starts going 1-1 with a 2.22 ERA, but that shouldn't last. Over that time his strikeouts have dropped while his walks have increased, and he's been the beneficiary of a low hit rate. His K/BB ratio over that time is around 1, and that tells me his ERA is due for a spike. That's good news for Carpenter as the Cardinals should score enough runs for him to pick up another win and build his case for the CY Young.
Bets
$15 NYY -150
$42 STL -210
Monday, August 17, 2009
No Action Yesterday
I made a pretty good comeback over the last few days, going 7-1 and gaining $114.
Portfolio: $1017 (10.4% return)
S&P 500: $1004 (9% return)
Portfolio: $1017 (10.4% return)
S&P 500: $1004 (9% return)
Today’s Game
St. Louis (-170) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (+150)
In the only game I like today Chris Carpenter is matched up against Charlie Haeger. Carpenter is having a great season after missing the last 2 due to injury. He is 12-3 with a 2.27 ERA. His ERA may be a little low due to a slight drop in strikeouts and a little lower hit rate than normal, but he’s still legit. Haeger, who is making his second career start, has struggled in his brief time in the majors over the last 3 years. The Cardinals are playing well and are winners of four in a row so they should have no problem scoring enough runs for Carpenter who should be solid.
Bet
$34 STL -170
St. Louis (-170) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (+150)
In the only game I like today Chris Carpenter is matched up against Charlie Haeger. Carpenter is having a great season after missing the last 2 due to injury. He is 12-3 with a 2.27 ERA. His ERA may be a little low due to a slight drop in strikeouts and a little lower hit rate than normal, but he’s still legit. Haeger, who is making his second career start, has struggled in his brief time in the majors over the last 3 years. The Cardinals are playing well and are winners of four in a row so they should have no problem scoring enough runs for Carpenter who should be solid.
Bet
$34 STL -170
Thursday, June 25, 2009
Bad Start
Wow, a poor 0-2 yesterday to bring my portfolio down $54. Although both games were losses, I still think they were solid plays. The Phillies/Rays game was a pitching duel up until the bottom of the 8th when the Phillies bullpen let up 5 runs to blow it open. And Dan Haren once again is the tough luck loser in a 2-1 game. It's hard to see his luck not turning around soon. He's pitching great.
I'm going to make a change to my portfolio with the beginning value being 921, the same as the S&P 500 when I started earlier this week, so it will be easier to compare the two. Also, I might post my picks, if there are any, all the way up until 7:00 pm EST.
Portfolio: 911 (-1.1% return)
S&P 500: 901 (-2.2% return)
Todays Game
St. Louis (-130) @ NY Mets (+110)
Chris Carpenter is matched up against Johan Santana in what should be a piching duel. I like Santana as the underdog at home and should not have to do any analysis, but I'll give you some. After a dip in strikeout rate in 2008, Santana has regained his level from the previous 5 years. His 2008 rate was 7.91 K/9 and this year it's at 9.77 K/9. His walk rate has continued a steady 5 year climb, but it's still pretty good at 2.72 BB/9. Carpenter has been pitching great this year, but he still hasn't found his skills from 2006, his last healthy season. His K/9 rate is 6.6 compared to 7.6 from 2004-2006. He has kept is pinpoint control, but the main factor to his great start after missing 2 seasons is his low hit rate. He's giving up 36% less hits per 9 than he did in 2004-2006. His low hit rate is unsustainable and will start to tick up.
Bets
20 NYM +110
I'm going to make a change to my portfolio with the beginning value being 921, the same as the S&P 500 when I started earlier this week, so it will be easier to compare the two. Also, I might post my picks, if there are any, all the way up until 7:00 pm EST.
Portfolio: 911 (-1.1% return)
S&P 500: 901 (-2.2% return)
Todays Game
St. Louis (-130) @ NY Mets (+110)
Chris Carpenter is matched up against Johan Santana in what should be a piching duel. I like Santana as the underdog at home and should not have to do any analysis, but I'll give you some. After a dip in strikeout rate in 2008, Santana has regained his level from the previous 5 years. His 2008 rate was 7.91 K/9 and this year it's at 9.77 K/9. His walk rate has continued a steady 5 year climb, but it's still pretty good at 2.72 BB/9. Carpenter has been pitching great this year, but he still hasn't found his skills from 2006, his last healthy season. His K/9 rate is 6.6 compared to 7.6 from 2004-2006. He has kept is pinpoint control, but the main factor to his great start after missing 2 seasons is his low hit rate. He's giving up 36% less hits per 9 than he did in 2004-2006. His low hit rate is unsustainable and will start to tick up.
Bets
20 NYM +110
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
