Good thing I backed off the games that I originally liked as both lost.
Portfolio: $1040 (12.9% return)
S&P 500: $879 (-4.6% return)
Today's Game
Cincinnati (-110) @ NY Mets (-100)
In the only game I like to today Aaron Harang is matched up against Mike Pelfrey. The Reds ace is 5-8 with a 3.89 ERA. His strikeout rate of 7.7 K/9 is down from his 2006-2007 average of 8.4 K/9, but in his last 4 starts it looks like he is getting that back by striking out 25 in 24 1/3 innings. His low walk rate of 2.11 BB/9 is consistent from the last 5 years, but his hit rate is a little up due to a decrease in ground balls. He gives up the long ball, but not at a higher rate than the last 5 years. The long ball should not be a big factor as the Mets have hit the least amount of home runs in the majors. So other than the decrease in ground balls it looks like he is getting back to his 06-07 form, which were the best years of his career. Pelfrey is an average ground ball pitcher who won't strikeout many, as shown by his 4.61 K/9 rate. He doesn't walk many with 3.34 BB/9, but that is up from his 2.87 BB/9 rate last year and has struggled to find the strike zone in his last 2 starts. His hit rate of 10.31 H/9 is probably a little higher than it should be given that his ground ball rate is up. It looks like Harang is starting to pitch like he did in 06-07 and I look for him to pitch solid today and pickup the win and the series for the Reds.
Bets
$22 CIN -110
Showing posts with label new york mets. Show all posts
Showing posts with label new york mets. Show all posts
Sunday, July 12, 2009
Wednesday, July 1, 2009
2-1, Up $13
I was able to gain a little even though the Red Sox blew a 10-1 lead, Scott Baker labored through 5, and Albert Pujols hit 2 homeruns.
Portfolio: $1006 (9.2% return)
S&P 500: $919 (-0.2% return)
Today’s Games
New York Mets (+180) @ Milwaukee (-220)
Philadelphia (-110) @ Atlanta (-100)
The first game has Mike Pelfrey matched up against Yovani Gallardo. Pelfrey is a ground ball pitcher who pitches to contact. He won’t strikeout many or walk many, and he allows very few homeruns. Keeping the ball on the ground and in the ballpark and is key when facing the power hitting Brewers. The Mets lineup is banged up, but they draw a decent amount of walks and strikeout less than any other team. This should play out well against Gallardo, who seems to have lost his control lately. You can see my analysis on Gallardo from 6/26. He has a depressed hit rate and is walking too many batters. If the Mets can lay off his curveball, which he hasn’t been able to get over the plate, they should be able to sit on fastballs and score some runs. This game may come down to the bullpens. At +180, this is a good value play.
The second game has Cole Hamels going up against Jair Jurrjens. Hamels has had some really bad luck leading to a 4-4 record with a 4.44 ERA. His 8.44 K/9 and 1.78 BB/9 rates are the best of his career, but his 10.89 H/9 rate is way above his 8.24 H/9 career average. Balls will eventually stop finding green at this rate for opposing hitters. Jurrjens is a solid major league pitcher who gets a lot of ground balls and has a 5-6 record with a 2.93 ERA. His K/9, BB/9, and H/9 rates are all seem to be normal given his brief history. His ERA was 3.68 last year, so his 2.93 ERA this year tells me he’s stranding more base runners than normal, which is mainly luck. The Phillies have been in a funk as of late and their ace should pick them up tonight.
Bets
$20 NYM +180
$22 PHI -110
I will be out of town the next 5 days, so I’m not sure how much I’ll post.
Portfolio: $1006 (9.2% return)
S&P 500: $919 (-0.2% return)
Today’s Games
New York Mets (+180) @ Milwaukee (-220)
Philadelphia (-110) @ Atlanta (-100)
The first game has Mike Pelfrey matched up against Yovani Gallardo. Pelfrey is a ground ball pitcher who pitches to contact. He won’t strikeout many or walk many, and he allows very few homeruns. Keeping the ball on the ground and in the ballpark and is key when facing the power hitting Brewers. The Mets lineup is banged up, but they draw a decent amount of walks and strikeout less than any other team. This should play out well against Gallardo, who seems to have lost his control lately. You can see my analysis on Gallardo from 6/26. He has a depressed hit rate and is walking too many batters. If the Mets can lay off his curveball, which he hasn’t been able to get over the plate, they should be able to sit on fastballs and score some runs. This game may come down to the bullpens. At +180, this is a good value play.
The second game has Cole Hamels going up against Jair Jurrjens. Hamels has had some really bad luck leading to a 4-4 record with a 4.44 ERA. His 8.44 K/9 and 1.78 BB/9 rates are the best of his career, but his 10.89 H/9 rate is way above his 8.24 H/9 career average. Balls will eventually stop finding green at this rate for opposing hitters. Jurrjens is a solid major league pitcher who gets a lot of ground balls and has a 5-6 record with a 2.93 ERA. His K/9, BB/9, and H/9 rates are all seem to be normal given his brief history. His ERA was 3.68 last year, so his 2.93 ERA this year tells me he’s stranding more base runners than normal, which is mainly luck. The Phillies have been in a funk as of late and their ace should pick them up tonight.
Bets
$20 NYM +180
$22 PHI -110
I will be out of town the next 5 days, so I’m not sure how much I’ll post.
Thursday, June 25, 2009
Bad Start
Wow, a poor 0-2 yesterday to bring my portfolio down $54. Although both games were losses, I still think they were solid plays. The Phillies/Rays game was a pitching duel up until the bottom of the 8th when the Phillies bullpen let up 5 runs to blow it open. And Dan Haren once again is the tough luck loser in a 2-1 game. It's hard to see his luck not turning around soon. He's pitching great.
I'm going to make a change to my portfolio with the beginning value being 921, the same as the S&P 500 when I started earlier this week, so it will be easier to compare the two. Also, I might post my picks, if there are any, all the way up until 7:00 pm EST.
Portfolio: 911 (-1.1% return)
S&P 500: 901 (-2.2% return)
Todays Game
St. Louis (-130) @ NY Mets (+110)
Chris Carpenter is matched up against Johan Santana in what should be a piching duel. I like Santana as the underdog at home and should not have to do any analysis, but I'll give you some. After a dip in strikeout rate in 2008, Santana has regained his level from the previous 5 years. His 2008 rate was 7.91 K/9 and this year it's at 9.77 K/9. His walk rate has continued a steady 5 year climb, but it's still pretty good at 2.72 BB/9. Carpenter has been pitching great this year, but he still hasn't found his skills from 2006, his last healthy season. His K/9 rate is 6.6 compared to 7.6 from 2004-2006. He has kept is pinpoint control, but the main factor to his great start after missing 2 seasons is his low hit rate. He's giving up 36% less hits per 9 than he did in 2004-2006. His low hit rate is unsustainable and will start to tick up.
Bets
20 NYM +110
I'm going to make a change to my portfolio with the beginning value being 921, the same as the S&P 500 when I started earlier this week, so it will be easier to compare the two. Also, I might post my picks, if there are any, all the way up until 7:00 pm EST.
Portfolio: 911 (-1.1% return)
S&P 500: 901 (-2.2% return)
Todays Game
St. Louis (-130) @ NY Mets (+110)
Chris Carpenter is matched up against Johan Santana in what should be a piching duel. I like Santana as the underdog at home and should not have to do any analysis, but I'll give you some. After a dip in strikeout rate in 2008, Santana has regained his level from the previous 5 years. His 2008 rate was 7.91 K/9 and this year it's at 9.77 K/9. His walk rate has continued a steady 5 year climb, but it's still pretty good at 2.72 BB/9. Carpenter has been pitching great this year, but he still hasn't found his skills from 2006, his last healthy season. His K/9 rate is 6.6 compared to 7.6 from 2004-2006. He has kept is pinpoint control, but the main factor to his great start after missing 2 seasons is his low hit rate. He's giving up 36% less hits per 9 than he did in 2004-2006. His low hit rate is unsustainable and will start to tick up.
Bets
20 NYM +110
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