My bet was void last night due to the game being postponed.
Portfolio: $1031 (11.9% return)
S&P 500: $940 (2.1% return)
Today's Game
San Francisco (-110) @ Pittsburgh (-100)
In the one game I like today Matt Cain is matched up against Zach Duke. Cain is a solid pitcher who's strikeout, walk, hit, and ground ball rates are all normal. He is a fly ball pitcher who benefits from playing in San Francisco, but PNC should be good to him also as it is big pitchers park. His ERA of 2.38 is a little low and that is due to him leaving a higher than normal percentage of runners on base. The lefty Duke is an average ground ball pitcher who's been benefiting from a low hit rate. This is odd since he's getting ground balls at the lowest rate in his career. The Pirates defense is better than years past, but not good enough to save him 2 hits per nine. His strikeout and walk rate are right on career averages. Pittsburgh is going for the sweep against a veteran Giants team that has scored 1 run in the last 23 innings. The Pirates offense has not been much better, scoring 4 runs in that time. Both pitchers ERA are better than they should be, but I think Cain's is more sustainable. This could be another low scoring affair, but I think the Giants will prevail this time as they don't want to get swept. I have nothing against Zach Duke as it seems I bet against him a lot, but he is pitching over his head and the lines do not reflect that.
Bets
$22 SF -110
Showing posts with label pittsburgh pirates. Show all posts
Showing posts with label pittsburgh pirates. Show all posts
Sunday, July 19, 2009
Friday, July 17, 2009
Pretty Good Night
I hit both games yesterday to bring my portfolio up $58.
Portfolio: $1076 (16.8% return)
S&P 500: $940 (2.1% return)
Today's Game
San Francisco (-150) @ Pittsburgh (+140)
Tim Lincecum is matched up against Paul Maholm in what should be a win for the Giants. Tim Lincecum is the best pitcher in baseball in my opinion and at -150 I think this is a great bet. I do not know why the line is so low since he is facing a below average hitting team. My guess is because he struggled a little in the All-Star game and that was only 3 days ago. But Lincecum is a dominant strikeout pitcher who happens to be on top of his game. He doesn't walk too many and gets ground balls. Maholm is a finesse lefty who doesn't strikeout or walk many. He is a ground ball pitcher, but this year he is getting around 20% fewer ground balls. In Lincecum's last 3 starts he is 3-0 with a 1.19 and 25 K's in 22 2/3 innings. Maholm is 2-0 with a 5.19 ERA and 5 K's in 17 1/3 innings. I don't think the Pirates will be scoring too many runs tonight. At -150 I think this is a steal.
Bets
$45 SF -150
Portfolio: $1076 (16.8% return)
S&P 500: $940 (2.1% return)
Today's Game
San Francisco (-150) @ Pittsburgh (+140)
Tim Lincecum is matched up against Paul Maholm in what should be a win for the Giants. Tim Lincecum is the best pitcher in baseball in my opinion and at -150 I think this is a great bet. I do not know why the line is so low since he is facing a below average hitting team. My guess is because he struggled a little in the All-Star game and that was only 3 days ago. But Lincecum is a dominant strikeout pitcher who happens to be on top of his game. He doesn't walk too many and gets ground balls. Maholm is a finesse lefty who doesn't strikeout or walk many. He is a ground ball pitcher, but this year he is getting around 20% fewer ground balls. In Lincecum's last 3 starts he is 3-0 with a 1.19 and 25 K's in 22 2/3 innings. Maholm is 2-0 with a 5.19 ERA and 5 K's in 17 1/3 innings. I don't think the Pirates will be scoring too many runs tonight. At -150 I think this is a steal.
Bets
$45 SF -150
Friday, July 10, 2009
Rockies Win
The Rockies won 7-6 to add $20 to my portfolio. Both Hanson and Cook struggled, but the Rockies offense and bullpen were the difference.
Portfolio: $1020 (10.7% return)
S&P 500: $883 (-4.1% return)
Today's Game
Pittsburgh (+140) @ Philadelphia (-160)
Zach Duke is matched up against Joe Blanton in the only game I like today. The lefty Duke is a finesse ground ball pitcher who won't strikeout or walk many. His K/9 and BB/9 are normal, but his hit rate is depressed at 8.77 H/9 compared to a career average of 10.64 H/9. This will correct and is showing signs as he has given up 20 hits in his last 19 innings. Another thing that doesn't bode well for Duke is that he is inducing ground balls at the lowest rate in his career. Also, being lefty doesn't worry me against the Phillies as they have been swinging hot bats as of late. Blanton has medicore numbers at 5-4 with a 4.69 ERA, but is pitching well as of late. His K/9 rate is the highest of his career, and this is probably due to the switch to the National League. His H/9 and BB/9 are right along his career averages, but his ground ball rate is down. This is a problem in a homerun happy Philly ballpark, and he allowed a lot of homeruns early in the year. He has recently let up on the homeruns, allowing 2 in his last 19 1/3 innings, and the Pirates have hit the second least homeruns in the majors. So I'm not too worried about homeruns by the Pirates in this game. The Phillies have been playing well as of late and the Pirates have been the opposite. I generally dont' like to bet on games with this heavy of a favorite, but I think the Phillies are a pretty good bet to win.
Bets
$32 PHI -160
Portfolio: $1020 (10.7% return)
S&P 500: $883 (-4.1% return)
Today's Game
Pittsburgh (+140) @ Philadelphia (-160)
Zach Duke is matched up against Joe Blanton in the only game I like today. The lefty Duke is a finesse ground ball pitcher who won't strikeout or walk many. His K/9 and BB/9 are normal, but his hit rate is depressed at 8.77 H/9 compared to a career average of 10.64 H/9. This will correct and is showing signs as he has given up 20 hits in his last 19 innings. Another thing that doesn't bode well for Duke is that he is inducing ground balls at the lowest rate in his career. Also, being lefty doesn't worry me against the Phillies as they have been swinging hot bats as of late. Blanton has medicore numbers at 5-4 with a 4.69 ERA, but is pitching well as of late. His K/9 rate is the highest of his career, and this is probably due to the switch to the National League. His H/9 and BB/9 are right along his career averages, but his ground ball rate is down. This is a problem in a homerun happy Philly ballpark, and he allowed a lot of homeruns early in the year. He has recently let up on the homeruns, allowing 2 in his last 19 1/3 innings, and the Pirates have hit the second least homeruns in the majors. So I'm not too worried about homeruns by the Pirates in this game. The Phillies have been playing well as of late and the Pirates have been the opposite. I generally dont' like to bet on games with this heavy of a favorite, but I think the Phillies are a pretty good bet to win.
Bets
$32 PHI -160
Monday, June 29, 2009
KC Barely Scores Enough
The Royals ended up winning 3-2, with Greinke pitching well and Morton struggling. A rain delay caused Greinke to only last 6 1/3 innings. Otherwise, he probably would have went the distance. I gained a solid $30.
Portfolio: $943 (2.4% return)
S&P 500: $919 (-0.2% return)
Today's Games
San Francisco (-130) @ St. Louis (+110)
Chicago Cubs (-110) @ Pittsburgh (-110)
Tim Lincecum is matched up against Brad Thompson. I'm not sure why the Giants are not favored by more, since they have a better record and have one of the best pitchers in baseball going up against an average pitcher at best. Lincecum is dominant, averaging 10.63 K/9 while only allowing 2.4 BB/9. Mix that in with the fact that he gets more ground ball than fly ball outs, which means he is less likely to give up extra base hits. In his last 3 starts he's thrown 26 innings while striking out 29 and only walking 3. He's in peak form. Thompson is a heavy ground ball pitcher who pitches to contact having only struck out 13 batters in 42 innings, and none in his last 12. He has good control in only walking 2.36 batters per 9, so the free swinging Giants probably won't draw a single walk off him. He's giving up the major league average of about a hit per inning, but that shouldn't last as that is about a hit per inning below his career average. I think the Giants are a no brainer here, and I think the line isn't more in their favor because of the DeRosa trade. A trade usually brings up the moral of a team and they play better, but I don't think that will be the case tonight since they are going up against Lincecum. Should be interesting to see the Pujols vs. Lincecum battles. I'm going to bet the max I can (5%).
In the second game, Rich Harden is matched up against Zach Duke. Harden has nasty stuff with a K/9 rate of 10, but walks a lot of batters with a 4.5 BB/9 rate. He also throws a lot of pitches which leads to a lot of early exits. His strikeout rate is in line with his career average but the reason why he has a 4-4 record with a 4.95 ERA is due to his walk rate being up along with his hit rate. Harden’s walk rate is up 0.60 BB/9 and his hit rate of 8.10 per 9 is almost 1 hit per inning more than his career average. This may be due to the fact that he is no longer a ground ball pitcher. Wrigley is not a good place for fly ball pitchers and this shows with a home ERA of 6.31 compared to a road ERA of 2.96. Good thing this game is at PNC. Zach Duke on the other hand is a strike throwing ground ball pitcher who won’t miss a lot of bats. Duke is having a good year with an 8-5 record and a 3.09 ERA, but that shouldn’t last. His strikeout rate and walk rate are normal, but his hit rate is 8.57 per 9 compared to his 10.65 per 9 career average. This is odd given the fact that his groundball rate is the lowest of his career. Also, a move to the mean has already started as he has given up 29 hits in his last 26 innings. The thing that Duke has going for him is that he is a lefty, but with the Cubs right handed heavy lineup I think they are in line to score a few runs tonight.
Bets
$39 SF -130
$22 CHC -110
Portfolio: $943 (2.4% return)
S&P 500: $919 (-0.2% return)
Today's Games
San Francisco (-130) @ St. Louis (+110)
Chicago Cubs (-110) @ Pittsburgh (-110)
Tim Lincecum is matched up against Brad Thompson. I'm not sure why the Giants are not favored by more, since they have a better record and have one of the best pitchers in baseball going up against an average pitcher at best. Lincecum is dominant, averaging 10.63 K/9 while only allowing 2.4 BB/9. Mix that in with the fact that he gets more ground ball than fly ball outs, which means he is less likely to give up extra base hits. In his last 3 starts he's thrown 26 innings while striking out 29 and only walking 3. He's in peak form. Thompson is a heavy ground ball pitcher who pitches to contact having only struck out 13 batters in 42 innings, and none in his last 12. He has good control in only walking 2.36 batters per 9, so the free swinging Giants probably won't draw a single walk off him. He's giving up the major league average of about a hit per inning, but that shouldn't last as that is about a hit per inning below his career average. I think the Giants are a no brainer here, and I think the line isn't more in their favor because of the DeRosa trade. A trade usually brings up the moral of a team and they play better, but I don't think that will be the case tonight since they are going up against Lincecum. Should be interesting to see the Pujols vs. Lincecum battles. I'm going to bet the max I can (5%).
In the second game, Rich Harden is matched up against Zach Duke. Harden has nasty stuff with a K/9 rate of 10, but walks a lot of batters with a 4.5 BB/9 rate. He also throws a lot of pitches which leads to a lot of early exits. His strikeout rate is in line with his career average but the reason why he has a 4-4 record with a 4.95 ERA is due to his walk rate being up along with his hit rate. Harden’s walk rate is up 0.60 BB/9 and his hit rate of 8.10 per 9 is almost 1 hit per inning more than his career average. This may be due to the fact that he is no longer a ground ball pitcher. Wrigley is not a good place for fly ball pitchers and this shows with a home ERA of 6.31 compared to a road ERA of 2.96. Good thing this game is at PNC. Zach Duke on the other hand is a strike throwing ground ball pitcher who won’t miss a lot of bats. Duke is having a good year with an 8-5 record and a 3.09 ERA, but that shouldn’t last. His strikeout rate and walk rate are normal, but his hit rate is 8.57 per 9 compared to his 10.65 per 9 career average. This is odd given the fact that his groundball rate is the lowest of his career. Also, a move to the mean has already started as he has given up 29 hits in his last 26 innings. The thing that Duke has going for him is that he is a lefty, but with the Cubs right handed heavy lineup I think they are in line to score a few runs tonight.
Bets
$39 SF -130
$22 CHC -110
Sunday, June 28, 2009
Easy Game Today
No bets last night. Here's the financial situation.
Portfolio: $913 (-0.9% return)
S&P 500: $ 919 (-0.2% return)
Today's Games
Kansas City (-150) @ Pittsburgh (+140)
Royals ace Zack Greinke is going up against Charlie Morton, who had his start on Friday pushed back due to injury. Greinke is having a CY Young season going 9-3 with a 1.90 ERA with 2 complete game shutouts. He won his last start against Houston by throwing 8 innings of shutout ball after hitting a rough patch in his previous 4 starts where he allowed more than 3 earned runs each game, losing two of those. His last start tells me he's found his stuff again, mostly notably his control. Greinke has only allowed 3 HR's in 109 innings this year, and Pittsburgh really has no power. Greinke's walk rate per 9 innings is 1.49, and Pittsburgh's young hitters are not too patient at the plate. What this tells me is that Pittsburgh most likely will not draw walks or hit home runs with Greinke on the mound. I don't know too much about Charlie Morton, but you can see my analysis of him from Friday's post. I really don't think it matter's how Charlie Morton throws because I doubt he will receive much run support. The main question is whether the Royals offense can score some runs for the CY Young candidate. I feel confident to bet my max limit of 5% on this game.
Bet
$45 KC -150
Portfolio: $913 (-0.9% return)
S&P 500: $ 919 (-0.2% return)
Today's Games
Kansas City (-150) @ Pittsburgh (+140)
Royals ace Zack Greinke is going up against Charlie Morton, who had his start on Friday pushed back due to injury. Greinke is having a CY Young season going 9-3 with a 1.90 ERA with 2 complete game shutouts. He won his last start against Houston by throwing 8 innings of shutout ball after hitting a rough patch in his previous 4 starts where he allowed more than 3 earned runs each game, losing two of those. His last start tells me he's found his stuff again, mostly notably his control. Greinke has only allowed 3 HR's in 109 innings this year, and Pittsburgh really has no power. Greinke's walk rate per 9 innings is 1.49, and Pittsburgh's young hitters are not too patient at the plate. What this tells me is that Pittsburgh most likely will not draw walks or hit home runs with Greinke on the mound. I don't know too much about Charlie Morton, but you can see my analysis of him from Friday's post. I really don't think it matter's how Charlie Morton throws because I doubt he will receive much run support. The main question is whether the Royals offense can score some runs for the CY Young candidate. I feel confident to bet my max limit of 5% on this game.
Bet
$45 KC -150
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