Two Games Friday

Portfolio: $860 (-6.7% return)
S&P 500: $1103 (19.8% return)

Today's Games (5/28)

St. Louis (-140) @ Chicago Cubs (+120)
Seattle (-120) @ Los Angeles Angels (+100)

In the first game Chris Carpenter is matched up against Randy Wells. Carpenter is a top 5 starter in the National League and his indicators look pretty strong this year as his strikeout rate is at a career high. He has given up 9 long balls this year after only giving up 7 all of last year, but I actually think that number last year was a fluke. He should end up with around 20 for the season, so I don't look too much into that number. Wells is a strike thrower who is turning into a solid young starter, but he won't fan a ton of hitters. Wells is coming off what may be his best start of the season while Carpenter is coming off a poor start by his standards. I feel the line should favor the Cardinals more with Carpenter pitching.

In the second game Cliff Lee is matched up against Scott Kazmir. Lee is on top of his game again this year as his control is pinpoint. He has walked only 1 batter in 36 2/3 innings this year. His super low walk rate is the key to him being one of the top pitchers in the league. He is also striking out about a batter an inning more this year. He was roughed up pretty good in his last start, but that happens from time to time with him because he doesn't not blow batters away and keeps the ball in the zone. He usually bounces back OK from those types of outings though. Kazmir has struggled all year and there are not too many signs of him turning it around. He may be hiding an injury as his strikeout rate is by far the lowest in his career and he is walking more batters than any time in the last 4 years. I know the Mariners have one of the worst offenses in the game, but they have been waking up lately and I don't think they'll need to score too many runs with Lee on the mound. I believe the line is so low for this much of a pitching mismatch because of how poorly the Mariners have been playing.

Bets

$14 STL -140
$12 SEA -120

Great Game Last Night

The Tigers/Twins game last night was one of the better baseball games I’ve seen in a while and that got me pumped up for the playoffs.

Portfolio: $1006 (9.2% return)
S&P 500: $1055 (14.5% return)

Today’s Games

Colorado (+120) @ Philadelphia (-140)
St. Louis (-150) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (+130)

In the first game Ubaldo Jimenez is matched up against Cliff Lee. Jimenez went 15-12 with a 3.47 ERA this season and is a very unique pitcher. He is a flamer thrower and a heavy ground ball pitcher. I do not believe anyone has the combined strikeout and ground ball ratios he does. Over his last 4 starts he is fanning 12.35 batters per nine and that is about the highest you’ll see from any pitcher. By being a heavy ground ball pitcher he keeps the ball in the park, giving up only 13 homeruns in 218 innings. His problem is walks, and he has struggled with those lately. His walk rate per nine over his last 4 starts is 4.78 compared to his 3.51 season average. Jimenez also was also successful in the postseason 2 years ago, posting a 2.25 ERA in 16 innings. Lee was unhittable in his first month with the Phillies but has been pretty average as of late. His indicators are strong, but he has struggled with a high hit rate all season and that’s not good when facing a really good hitting lineup. Lee has no previous postseason experience and really hasn’t pitched in too many big games in his career. Some pitchers take off running in these situations, but most have a learning curve. I look for the Rockies to take game 1 as Jimenez should be able to take away the Phillies biggest strength, the long ball.

In the second game Chris Carpenter is matched up against Randy Wolf. Carpenter will probably win the National League CY Young and has only had one hiccup in the second half. His indicators look solid so he should give his team a good chance to win. His career postseason numbers are really good, going 5-1 with a 2.53 ERA. Wolf has been the Dodgers most consistent starter all year long. He improved his walk rate, but what really helped him was a low hit rate. His low hit rate was not caused by an increased ground ball rate so it was most likely due to better defense, a new pitch and luck. Over his last 4 starts his indicators are really weak even though he posted a 3.33 ERA. His ERA is will rise if he continues to pitch like he has been, and that’s not good news when facing the Cardinals and Chris Carpenter. Wolf has no postseason experience and looks to be tiring down the stretch. I like the Cardinals to win game 1 pretty easy.

Bets

$20 COL +120
$30 STL -150

Rough Night - Down $75

Looks like I was way off on the Red Sox game as Lester was the one who lasted 2 1/3 innings and Chamberlain went 6. The Marlins also blew a save after burning me Wednesday night by coming back against Philadelphia. It's tough going 0-fer when betting favorites in baseball, but overall my portfolio is still in decent shape. I'm still not comfortable betting on college football yet.

Portfolio: $1088 (18.1% return)

S&P 500: $1044 (13.4% return)

Today's Games

St. Louis (+130) @ Colorado (-140)

In the only game today Adam Wainwright is matched up against Ubaldo Jimenez in a possible division series match up. Wainwright is sharp right now and is looking to lock up some more votes for the CY Young and clinch the division for his team. I do not see a weakness in his game. Jimenez is the Rockies ace and is looking to help his team nail down the wild card, but has been inconsistent lately as his walk rate has spiked. I like the Cardinals in a good value play here.

Bet

$20 STL +130

Boston and Colorado Take Care of Business

My portfolio gained $40 as Jon Lester and Jason Hammel pitched solid and both teams pulled away at the end of the game to win easily. I'm staying away from the NFL this week as it is still way too unpredictable. I have also decided to list my winning percentage for the first time today. If you have been following my advice and using my conservative money management approach then you should be doing pretty well.

Portfolio: $1169 (27% return)

S&P 500: $1068 (16% return)

Overall Record: 48-33 (59%)

Favorites: 34-18 (65%)

Underdogs: 15-14 (52%)

Today’s Games

Chicago Cubs (+140) @ St. Louis (-160)

Carlos Zambrano is matched up against Adam Wainwright. Zambrano is an erratic pitcher who has not been throwing well lately. While his strikeouts are up, so are his walks and hits. He has also not fared well against the Cardinals this year. Wainwright is making a bid for the National League CY Young award and has been on top of his game in his last 2 starts. His indicators tell me that he will keep it up. He is 3-0 with a 2.43 ERA against the Cubs in 4 starts this year and has an ERA of 1.89 at home. This is ESPN’s Sunday night game of the week and Wainwright will have the chance to show everyone how good he has been as the Cardinals should complete the sweep.

Bet

$32 STL -160

Royals Win, Angels Lose – Down $7

Robinson Tejeda had electric stuff and pitched 5 innings of 1 run ball and Dice-K surprisingly outdueled Lackey.

Portfolio: $1115 (21.1% return)
S&P 500: $1053 (14.3% return)

Today’s Games

Florida (+110) @ St. Louis (-130)

In the only game today Josh Johnson is matched up against Joel Pineiro. Johnson has had a solid season, but is showing signs of fatigue as his walks are way up lately. Other than that all his other indicators are normal. He is also being monitored closely as he is coming off Tommy John surgery. I don’t expect him to throw more than 95 pitches. Pineiro is having a career year due to pinpoint control, 1.04 BB/9, and an increased ground ball rate. He has turned himself into a heavy ground ball pitcher after being about a 55/45 ground ball to fly ball guy earlier in his career. He won’t miss many bats, but hitter’s don’t square him up that often. Florida had a bad weekend and may have fallen out of the playoff race while the Cardinals are playing for home field advantage. I like the Cardinals and Pineiro.

Bet

$26 STL -130

Back To Normal Life

After being away from everything for 5 days I am now back on a normal schedule.

Portfolio: $1016 (10.3% return)
S&P 500: $1025 (11.3% return)

Today’s Games

St. Louis (-200) @ Milwaukee (+170)
Florida (-140) @ New York Mets (+120)

In the first game Adam Wainwright is matched up against Jeff Suppan. Wainwright is in the talks for the NL CY Young, but was roughed up by Pittsburgh is his last start although he did pick up the win. This doesn’t seem to be anything to worry about and he should bounce back against the Brewers, a team who he has dominated this year. Suppan is 1-0 with a 2.81 ERA in his last 3 starts, but he shouldn’t be able to keep that up. His K’s are way down and his BB’s are uncharacteristically high and that explains his 1.94 WHIP over that span. He might be pitching with a dead arm or slightly hurt, and that does not bode well against the division leading Cardinals.

In the second game Ricky Nolasco is matched up against Pat Misch. Nolasco has been pretty solid in the second half of the season and his K and BB rates are ace caliber. He has suffered from a low strand rate lately so his ERA of 4.38 over his last 4 starts should probably be lower. Misch is making only his third start this year after appearing in 19 games out of the pen. He won’t miss a lot of bats, walk too many, or get a lot of ground balls, but he is left handed. Nolasco should have a decent outing against a light hitting Mets team as the Marlins need to pick it up if they want to play into October.

Bets

$20 STL -200
$14 FLA -140

I’ll ease into action after being away.

No Action Yesterday

Portfolio: $1037 (12.6% return)
S&P 500: $1031 (11.9% return)

Today’s Games

Chicago White Sox (+200) @ New York Yankees (-240)
Washington (+170) @ St. Louis (-190)
Colorado (+110) @ San Francisco (-130)

In the first game Mark Buehrle is matched up against CC Sabathia. Buehrle has struggled ever since his perfect game and has been getting hit hard lately while his K’s have dropped. Sabathia has won his last 4 starts and is in CY Young form. His pinpoint control and increased K rate are the main drivers behind that. When he can throw all three of his pitches for strikes it’s really hard to score runs off him. I look for the Yankees and CC to cruise in this one.

In the second game John Lannan is matched up against John Smoltz. Lannan has been getting absolutely tagged lately as his ERA is 12.00 over his last 3 starts, not good news facing the Cardinals. Smoltz is coming off his only decent start this year, and should have the confidence he lacked earlier in the season with the Red Sox. I’ve been saying all along that he still has some left in the tank, and if you type in “Smoltz” in the search on the top left corner of the page you can see my past analysis of him. His K and BB rates are right in line with his last 2 healthy seasons. I like the Cardinals to win easily.

In the third game Ubaldo Jimenez is matched up against Tim Lincecum for the second time in 5 days. Jimenez pitched great and Lincecum pitched below his standards and the Rockies won 4-2. Jimenez is on top of his game right now, but I find it hard to believe that Lincecum won’t be up for the challenge to get even. Lincecum has struggled with control his last 2 starts, so if he can get that fixed, which I think he will, he should be in a position to dominate. This is a true test for both starters in another huge series, and Lincecum will come out on top this time.

Bets

$24 NYY -240
$19 STL -190
$26 SF -130

Giants Take Care Of Business

That was a pretty easy $32 last night as Aaron Cook's recent struggles continued. He left with a sore shoulder after only 47 pitches, so that could be part of the reason for his struggles. Sanchez on the other hand pitched normal by his standards. He was wild, struck out 8 and left after only 5 innings due to pitch count. If he can learn to throw more strikes before the seasons end and the Giants make the playoffs their pitching will be unstoppable.

Portfolio: $1088 (18.1% return)

S&P 500: $1026 (11.4% return)

For those of you not aware, when I started my blog a couple months ago the S&P 500 was at 921, so that's what my porfolio's starting value was. As you can see, I am getting a 6.7% higher return on my money than the S&P 500 since the start of my simulation.

Today's Games

New York Yankees (-150) @ Boston (+140)

St. Louis (-210) @ San Diego (+190)

In the first game I like today the hard throwing A.J. Burnett is matched up against the rookie Junichi Tazawa. Burnett is having a decent season, although the Yankees thought they were getting a little more when they signed him this off season. His strikeouts have dropped and his walks have increased this year. He's been getting the K's lately but he is still allowing too many walks. He has had a good history against the Red Sox and was dominant in his last start against them a few weeks back. Tazawa is a contact pitcher who is making his 3rd career start and has yet to make it past the 5th inning. His stuff isn't anything special and the Yankees should have no problem scoring runs and extending their division lead this afternoon.

In the second game Chris Carpenter is matched up against Kevin Correia. Carpenter is a top CY Young candidate who has been on top of his game lately. Corriea has been solid in his last 4 starts going 1-1 with a 2.22 ERA, but that shouldn't last. Over that time his strikeouts have dropped while his walks have increased, and he's been the beneficiary of a low hit rate. His K/BB ratio over that time is around 1, and that tells me his ERA is due for a spike. That's good news for Carpenter as the Cardinals should score enough runs for him to pick up another win and build his case for the CY Young.

Bets

$15 NYY -150

$42 STL -210

No Action Last Night

Portfolio: $1037 (12.6% return)
S&P 500: $990 (7.5% return)

Today’s Game

St. Louis (+110) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-130)

In the only game I like today Adam Wainwright is matched up against Clayton Kershaw in a battle between two sub 3 ERA’s. Wainwright is having a great season and has been really good lately, going 2-1 with a 1.31 ERA in his last 3, and it looks legit. He’s not walking anybody, his hits are normal, and his strikeouts are normal. Kershaw is also having a great season and is pitching well lately, going 2-0 with a 2.70 ERA in his last 4, but it doesn’t look to hold. He has been walking way too many, 5.06 BB/9 for the year, and his hit rate is way too low but seems to be turning around lately. I like the battle tested Wainwright in the rubber game between these two solid teams.

Bet

$20 STL +110

No Action Yesterday

I made a pretty good comeback over the last few days, going 7-1 and gaining $114.

Portfolio: $1017 (10.4% return)
S&P 500: $1004 (9% return)

Today’s Game

St. Louis (-170) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (+150)

In the only game I like today Chris Carpenter is matched up against Charlie Haeger. Carpenter is having a great season after missing the last 2 due to injury. He is 12-3 with a 2.27 ERA. His ERA may be a little low due to a slight drop in strikeouts and a little lower hit rate than normal, but he’s still legit. Haeger, who is making his second career start, has struggled in his brief time in the majors over the last 3 years. The Cardinals are playing well and are winners of four in a row so they should have no problem scoring enough runs for Carpenter who should be solid.

Bet

$34 STL -170

3-0, Up $60

I’m catching right back up to the S&P 500. A good day today and I might even be ahead of it.

Portfolio: $983 (6.7% return)
S&P 500: $1013 (10% return)

Today’s Games

Philadelphia (+120) @ Atlanta (-140)
Boston (+130) @ Texas (-150)
San Diego (+190) @ St. Louis (-230)

In the first game Joe Blanton is matched up against Jair Jurrjens in a battle between two hot division rivals. Blanton has upped his strikeouts and is having a solid season except that he has struggled to keep the ball in the yard. But playing in the pitcher friendly Atlanta should take care of that problem. Jurrjens is a good pitcher, but has been the beneficiary of good luck up until a few starts ago. The baseball gods are turning on him as he not stranding all base runners anymore. The Phillies will pull this one out to distance in an important series to distance themselves from the Braves.

In the second game Jon Lester is going up against Kevin Millwood. Lester has the strikeout and walk rates of an ace but has been the victim of bad luck. He’s even a slight ground ball pitcher. Millwood on the other hand has had some really good luck this year. His strikeouts are down and everything else looks normal, so the fact that his ERA is 3.38 tells me it will rise. Lester has been pitching great as of late and should keep it up against a Texas team that is coming back from a 10 game road trip.

In the third game Mat Latos is matched up against Adam Wainwright. Latos is a young prospect who has pitched well so far, but I think he will struggle against a lineup that includes Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday. The Cardinals ace, Wainwright, has been pitching great this year and should mow down the light hitting Padres.

Bets

$20 PHI +120
$20 BOS +130
$23 STL -230

KC Barely Scores Enough

The Royals ended up winning 3-2, with Greinke pitching well and Morton struggling. A rain delay caused Greinke to only last 6 1/3 innings. Otherwise, he probably would have went the distance. I gained a solid $30.

Portfolio: $943 (2.4% return)
S&P 500: $919 (-0.2% return)

Today's Games

San Francisco (-130) @ St. Louis (+110)
Chicago Cubs (-110) @ Pittsburgh (-110)

Tim Lincecum is matched up against Brad Thompson. I'm not sure why the Giants are not favored by more, since they have a better record and have one of the best pitchers in baseball going up against an average pitcher at best. Lincecum is dominant, averaging 10.63 K/9 while only allowing 2.4 BB/9. Mix that in with the fact that he gets more ground ball than fly ball outs, which means he is less likely to give up extra base hits. In his last 3 starts he's thrown 26 innings while striking out 29 and only walking 3. He's in peak form. Thompson is a heavy ground ball pitcher who pitches to contact having only struck out 13 batters in 42 innings, and none in his last 12. He has good control in only walking 2.36 batters per 9, so the free swinging Giants probably won't draw a single walk off him. He's giving up the major league average of about a hit per inning, but that shouldn't last as that is about a hit per inning below his career average. I think the Giants are a no brainer here, and I think the line isn't more in their favor because of the DeRosa trade. A trade usually brings up the moral of a team and they play better, but I don't think that will be the case tonight since they are going up against Lincecum. Should be interesting to see the Pujols vs. Lincecum battles. I'm going to bet the max I can (5%).

In the second game, Rich Harden is matched up against Zach Duke. Harden has nasty stuff with a K/9 rate of 10, but walks a lot of batters with a 4.5 BB/9 rate. He also throws a lot of pitches which leads to a lot of early exits. His strikeout rate is in line with his career average but the reason why he has a 4-4 record with a 4.95 ERA is due to his walk rate being up along with his hit rate. Harden’s walk rate is up 0.60 BB/9 and his hit rate of 8.10 per 9 is almost 1 hit per inning more than his career average. This may be due to the fact that he is no longer a ground ball pitcher. Wrigley is not a good place for fly ball pitchers and this shows with a home ERA of 6.31 compared to a road ERA of 2.96. Good thing this game is at PNC. Zach Duke on the other hand is a strike throwing ground ball pitcher who won’t miss a lot of bats. Duke is having a good year with an 8-5 record and a 3.09 ERA, but that shouldn’t last. His strikeout rate and walk rate are normal, but his hit rate is 8.57 per 9 compared to his 10.65 per 9 career average. This is odd given the fact that his groundball rate is the lowest of his career. Also, a move to the mean has already started as he has given up 29 hits in his last 26 innings. The thing that Duke has going for him is that he is a lefty, but with the Cubs right handed heavy lineup I think they are in line to score a few runs tonight.

Bets

$39 SF -130
$22 CHC -110

Bad Start

Wow, a poor 0-2 yesterday to bring my portfolio down $54. Although both games were losses, I still think they were solid plays. The Phillies/Rays game was a pitching duel up until the bottom of the 8th when the Phillies bullpen let up 5 runs to blow it open. And Dan Haren once again is the tough luck loser in a 2-1 game. It's hard to see his luck not turning around soon. He's pitching great.

I'm going to make a change to my portfolio with the beginning value being 921, the same as the S&P 500 when I started earlier this week, so it will be easier to compare the two. Also, I might post my picks, if there are any, all the way up until 7:00 pm EST.

Portfolio: 911 (-1.1% return)
S&P 500: 901 (-2.2% return)

Todays Game

St. Louis (-130) @ NY Mets (+110)

Chris Carpenter is matched up against Johan Santana in what should be a piching duel. I like Santana as the underdog at home and should not have to do any analysis, but I'll give you some. After a dip in strikeout rate in 2008, Santana has regained his level from the previous 5 years. His 2008 rate was 7.91 K/9 and this year it's at 9.77 K/9. His walk rate has continued a steady 5 year climb, but it's still pretty good at 2.72 BB/9. Carpenter has been pitching great this year, but he still hasn't found his skills from 2006, his last healthy season. His K/9 rate is 6.6 compared to 7.6 from 2004-2006. He has kept is pinpoint control, but the main factor to his great start after missing 2 seasons is his low hit rate. He's giving up 36% less hits per 9 than he did in 2004-2006. His low hit rate is unsustainable and will start to tick up.

Bets

20 NYM +110