Phillies Pull It Out In 10, Up $30

Roy Oswalt pitched great through six and then the wheels kind of came off, and Volstad labored through 5 2/3, allowing 8 hits and walking 3 but somehow only allowed 2 runs.

Portfolio: $815 (-11.5% return)
S&P 500: $1126 (22.3% return)

Today's Games

Colorado (-150) @ Pittsburgh (+130)
Los Angeles Angels (-100) @ Detroit (-120)
Houston (+110) @ Milwaukee (-130)

In the first game Jason Hammel is matched up against Zah Duke. Hammel is slowly becoming one of the most underrated pitchers in the game. He has good stuff and doesn't have trouble finding the strike zone. He has pitched pretty well as of late but has had some bad luck, going 0-3 with a 5.33 ERA in his last 4 starts. He probably should have a win or two and an ERA in the 3's. Facing a young Pirates lineup for the first time should change his luck. Duke is a borderline major league starter and can have the occasional lefty dominant performance, but I don't think he'll do it against a good hitting Rockies lineup. He really struggles and is probably more suited for the bullpen. I like the Rockies.

In the second game Jered Weaver is matched up against Justin Verlander. Weaver leads the AL in strikeouts and is having his best season as a pro, and his indicators back it up. I would classify him as a legitimate ace now. Verlander hasn't been as dominant this year as last. His strikeouts are down and his walks are up. He is having some decent control problems as of late and until he fixes that things will not go well. The Angels have a good hitting team and I think this will be a good pitching duel, but with the Tigers in a free fall lately I like the Angels.

In the third game red hot Wandy Rodriguez is matched up against Dave Bush. Rodriguez has been on fire as he has not allowed a run in his last 2 starts. He has great command of the strike zone and it looks like his curve is working again. He has one of the best curve balls in the league, and I look for him to continue his run of dominance. Bush on the other hand has been getting tagged lately. It almost looks like he's been throwing batting practice, but it also looks like he has been the victim of bad luck. His luck will eventually turn around for the better, but I don't think it will matter because Rodriguez should have another dominant performance against a strikeout prone Brewers team. I like the Astros and I can't figure why they are the underdogs. I am going to put a little more on them.

Bets

$15 COL -150
$10 LAA -100
$20 HOU +110

One Game Tonight

Portfolio: $865 (-6.1% return)
S&P 500: $1088 (18.1% return)

Today's Game

Tampa Bay (-160) @ Houston (+150)

In today's only game Jeff Niemann is matched up against Wandy Rodriguez. Niemann has gotten off to a great start at 3-0 with a 2.54 ERA, but he's definitely pitching over his head. His hit rate is roughly 2 hits per nine lower than last year and while his ground ball to fly ball ratio is up a little, it should not effect his hit rate that much. Over his last 3 starts his hit rate has regressed and I expect to see a bump in his ERA soon. Rodriguez has gotten off to a rocky start this year and it's mainly due to a decreased strikeout rate and an increased hit rate. I do not really get the strikeout rate, but I would expect him to get that back pretty soon. This year he's at 5.28 K's per nine, and the last 2 years he's been around 8.50. His hit rate is about 2 hits per nine higher than it has been the last few years, and with a pretty good increase in his ground ball to fly ball ratio that does not make much sense. I expect him to start picking up his game soon. With this game being played in the National League I think the Astros at +150 are a solid play.

Bets

$10 HOU +150

Easy Money

A typical slow Monday due to travel, but I do like 1 game tonight. It's the Rockies (+110) @ Angels (-130). I'll use the line's off Logans, which I get from going to the 'live odds' page in the sports section of the USA Today online. If the line is not an even betting number, I'll round to the nearest 10 so I don't have to deal with change.

I mainly look at the pitching matchup, but also condsider how the team has been playing of late. Aaron Cook looks realy good going up against Matt Palmer, and the Rockies have been playing lights out as of late winning 16 out of 17. Aaron Cook got off to a really bad start but has been pitching good as of late. The Rockies ace is a big time ground ball pitcher who gave up an usually high amount of home runs early in the season. Cook's not a strikeout pitcher, but has been striking out batter's at the highest rate in his career. He's also been walking batter's at the highest rate in the last 5 years, but his 5 year WHIP is unaffected due to a lower hit rate. I'm not too worried about the walks since they came early on in the season when he struggled. In his last 4 starts he has only walked 4 compared to 16 strikeouts, not bad at all.

Matt Palmer on the other hand has gotten off to a nice 6-0 start with a 4.13 ERA. If you look further into how he's doing it, it's fool's gold. Palmer is not a strikeout pitcher, not a heavy ground ball pitcher, not a control freak, and not left handed. What he's doing though is allowing very few hits, which is mostly luck and will eventually turn around.

The Bet
$40 COL +110

My sports gambling blog

I'm bored, just finished up an 0-3 day, and it just hit me I have to go to work tomorrow. My job is pretty laid back. I basically sit in a cube for 8 hours a day, and have been thinking about starting a sports gambling blog for quite some time to see if I can help people out. I love sports and love to gamble. I really only like to gamble on things that I believe I have an advantage on, like sports and poker. The odds are stacked against you in all other types of gambling. If I see a bet I like, I'll let you know. I'll start an imaginary portfolio at $921, which is equal to the S&P 500, and track its performance against the S&P 500. I'll usually bet around 2% of my portfolio and will never exceed 5%.

Portfolio as of 6/21/09:

Betting: $921 (0% return)
S&P 500: 921 (0% return)