Portfolio: $865 (-6.1% return)
S&P 500: $1088 (18.1% return)
Today's Game
Tampa Bay (-160) @ Houston (+150)
In today's only game Jeff Niemann is matched up against Wandy Rodriguez. Niemann has gotten off to a great start at 3-0 with a 2.54 ERA, but he's definitely pitching over his head. His hit rate is roughly 2 hits per nine lower than last year and while his ground ball to fly ball ratio is up a little, it should not effect his hit rate that much. Over his last 3 starts his hit rate has regressed and I expect to see a bump in his ERA soon. Rodriguez has gotten off to a rocky start this year and it's mainly due to a decreased strikeout rate and an increased hit rate. I do not really get the strikeout rate, but I would expect him to get that back pretty soon. This year he's at 5.28 K's per nine, and the last 2 years he's been around 8.50. His hit rate is about 2 hits per nine higher than it has been the last few years, and with a pretty good increase in his ground ball to fly ball ratio that does not make much sense. I expect him to start picking up his game soon. With this game being played in the National League I think the Astros at +150 are a solid play.
Bets
$10 HOU +150
Showing posts with label houston astros. Show all posts
Showing posts with label houston astros. Show all posts
Saturday, May 22, 2010
Monday, July 27, 2009
The Tribe Stays Hot
The Indians completed the sweep of the Mariners yesterday to bring my portfolio up $20.
Portfolio: $979 (6.3% return)
S&P 500: $979 (6.3% return)
Today’s Games
Houston (+130) @ Chicago Cubs (-150)
Cleveland (+140) @ Los Angeles Angels (-160)
In the first game Wandy Rodriguez is matched up against Carlos Zambrano. Rodriguez is having a solid season and you can see my analysis on him from 7/16. Not much has changed as he is 3-0 with a 0.41 ERA while only walking 3 batters in his last 3 starts. Zambrano is having a pretty normal year for him. His strikeout and walk rates are right on career averages, but his hit rate is up due to a drop in ground balls. He is giving up home runs at a lower rate than normal, but that should not continue as his ground ball ratio has really dropped and is the lowest in his career by far. Even though Houston is coming off 2 straight losses while the Cubs are coming off a 3 game sweep, I look for the Astros to right their ship in a battle of number ones.
In the second game Carl Pavano is matched up against Joe Saunders. Pavano has good indicators, but seems to be the victim of bad luck. His strikeout rate is the highest of his career and his walk rate is the second lowest of his career. He is also a slight ground ball pitcher and his ratio is right on his career average. What has hurt him is his high hit rate and home run rate. This could be an indicator that he is losing his stuff, but his strikeout rate tells me this is just bad luck. Saunders doesn’t have great stuff and mainly gets by on the fact that he is a lefty. His strikeout rate is low at 4.94 K/9 while his walk rate has increased this year by 41%. He is also a slight ground ball pitcher who’s right on his career average. The Indians have been hitting the heck out of the ball lately and are facing their 9th left handed starter in a row in Saunders, so he shouldn’t throw their rhythm off. I doubt this will be a low scoring game and I think the Indians have more firepower.
Bets
$20 HOU +130
$20 CLE +140
Portfolio: $979 (6.3% return)
S&P 500: $979 (6.3% return)
Today’s Games
Houston (+130) @ Chicago Cubs (-150)
Cleveland (+140) @ Los Angeles Angels (-160)
In the first game Wandy Rodriguez is matched up against Carlos Zambrano. Rodriguez is having a solid season and you can see my analysis on him from 7/16. Not much has changed as he is 3-0 with a 0.41 ERA while only walking 3 batters in his last 3 starts. Zambrano is having a pretty normal year for him. His strikeout and walk rates are right on career averages, but his hit rate is up due to a drop in ground balls. He is giving up home runs at a lower rate than normal, but that should not continue as his ground ball ratio has really dropped and is the lowest in his career by far. Even though Houston is coming off 2 straight losses while the Cubs are coming off a 3 game sweep, I look for the Astros to right their ship in a battle of number ones.
In the second game Carl Pavano is matched up against Joe Saunders. Pavano has good indicators, but seems to be the victim of bad luck. His strikeout rate is the highest of his career and his walk rate is the second lowest of his career. He is also a slight ground ball pitcher and his ratio is right on his career average. What has hurt him is his high hit rate and home run rate. This could be an indicator that he is losing his stuff, but his strikeout rate tells me this is just bad luck. Saunders doesn’t have great stuff and mainly gets by on the fact that he is a lefty. His strikeout rate is low at 4.94 K/9 while his walk rate has increased this year by 41%. He is also a slight ground ball pitcher who’s right on his career average. The Indians have been hitting the heck out of the ball lately and are facing their 9th left handed starter in a row in Saunders, so he shouldn’t throw their rhythm off. I doubt this will be a low scoring game and I think the Indians have more firepower.
Bets
$20 HOU +130
$20 CLE +140
Thursday, July 16, 2009
Games Start Back Up Today
The S&P 500 continued to makes its run during the All-Star break.
Portfolio: $1018 (10.5% return)
S&P 500: $931 (1.1% return)
Today's Games
Chicago Cubs (-120) @ Washington Nationals (+110)
Houston (+140) @ LA Dodgers (-150)
Rich Harden is matched up against John Lannan in the first game I like tonight. Harden strikes out a lot of batters, but also walks his fair share. He is striking out batters at a high rate of 10.09 K/9 this year, and that is up a little from his career average but down a little from last year. He is walking a little more batters this year, but his last 3 starts are right in line with his career average. The one thing that has hurt Harden this year is his hit rate. He is giving up 9.49 H/9, and 15.43 H/9 over his last 3 starts. His career average is 7.33, and his ground ball to fly ball ratio is right on his career average. Harden has also been hurt by the long ball, giving up way more than his average. Good thing for him that Washington is one of the worst home run hitting ballparks in the majors and the Nationals are a below average home run hitting team. All those indicators tell me that Harden is the victim of bad luck and his numbers should start to turn around. Lannan is a lefty that gets a lot of ground balls. He does not strikeout many, and his strikeout rate of 4.02 K/9 is way down from last years rate of 5.79 K/9. Over his last 3 starts his rate is even worse at 2.22 K/9. He doesn't walk many and has shown good control over his last 3 starts. His hits are up a little, but his ground ball rate is down a little. I think the right handed heavy Cubs at -120 are a pretty good play here.
In the second game, Wandy Rodriguez is going up against Randy Wolf. Both lefties have put together solid seasons, with Rodriguez breaking out and Wolf reemerging. Rodriguez’s strikeout, walk, and hit rates are basically the same as last years, and he has really improved his ground ball rate. His rates indicate he’s a solid pitcher, and he is 2-0 with a 2.05 ERA in his last 3 starts. Wolf has also been pitching well as of late, going 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA in his last 3 starts. His strikeout rate is little down a little from his career average, but so is his walk rate. The one thing that has helped him out this year is his hit rate. It’s at 7.93 for the year compared to his career average of 8.71. He hasn’t had a hit rate under 8 since 2003, and his current rate is probably unsustainable due to the fact that his ground ball rate is right on his career average. The Astros have been struggling to score runs this year while the Dodgers have the second best offense in the National League. Even with that being said, I think the Astros at +140 are a solid play with Rodriguez pitching.
Bets
$36 CHC -120
$20 HOU +140
I will be on the road all day tomorrow so if I post it'll probably be right before game time.
Portfolio: $1018 (10.5% return)
S&P 500: $931 (1.1% return)
Today's Games
Chicago Cubs (-120) @ Washington Nationals (+110)
Houston (+140) @ LA Dodgers (-150)
Rich Harden is matched up against John Lannan in the first game I like tonight. Harden strikes out a lot of batters, but also walks his fair share. He is striking out batters at a high rate of 10.09 K/9 this year, and that is up a little from his career average but down a little from last year. He is walking a little more batters this year, but his last 3 starts are right in line with his career average. The one thing that has hurt Harden this year is his hit rate. He is giving up 9.49 H/9, and 15.43 H/9 over his last 3 starts. His career average is 7.33, and his ground ball to fly ball ratio is right on his career average. Harden has also been hurt by the long ball, giving up way more than his average. Good thing for him that Washington is one of the worst home run hitting ballparks in the majors and the Nationals are a below average home run hitting team. All those indicators tell me that Harden is the victim of bad luck and his numbers should start to turn around. Lannan is a lefty that gets a lot of ground balls. He does not strikeout many, and his strikeout rate of 4.02 K/9 is way down from last years rate of 5.79 K/9. Over his last 3 starts his rate is even worse at 2.22 K/9. He doesn't walk many and has shown good control over his last 3 starts. His hits are up a little, but his ground ball rate is down a little. I think the right handed heavy Cubs at -120 are a pretty good play here.
In the second game, Wandy Rodriguez is going up against Randy Wolf. Both lefties have put together solid seasons, with Rodriguez breaking out and Wolf reemerging. Rodriguez’s strikeout, walk, and hit rates are basically the same as last years, and he has really improved his ground ball rate. His rates indicate he’s a solid pitcher, and he is 2-0 with a 2.05 ERA in his last 3 starts. Wolf has also been pitching well as of late, going 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA in his last 3 starts. His strikeout rate is little down a little from his career average, but so is his walk rate. The one thing that has helped him out this year is his hit rate. It’s at 7.93 for the year compared to his career average of 8.71. He hasn’t had a hit rate under 8 since 2003, and his current rate is probably unsustainable due to the fact that his ground ball rate is right on his career average. The Astros have been struggling to score runs this year while the Dodgers have the second best offense in the National League. Even with that being said, I think the Astros at +140 are a solid play with Rodriguez pitching.
Bets
$36 CHC -120
$20 HOU +140
I will be on the road all day tomorrow so if I post it'll probably be right before game time.
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