In the first game today Jon Lester is matched up against David Hernandez. Lester is becoming one of the better left handed pitchers in the game and one of the better pitchers in the American League. His K rate of 10.07 and BB rate of 2.86 are pretty close to Tim Lincecum’s with the main difference being he gives up more hits. Lester has been on top of his game lately going 3-0 with a 0.86 ERA over his last 3 starts. His hit rate is a little low over that span so that should start to tick up, but he will still be dominant. He has also carved up the Orioles this year, going 3-0 with a 0.84 ERA in 3 starts. Hernandez has struggled in his first stint in the big leagues, going 4-8 with a 5.40 ERA. There’s really not much to like so far as he does not miss many bats, issues too many free passes, and is an extreme fly ball pitcher which has led to him giving up 23 homeruns in 85 innings. He has also been lit up by the Red Sox this year in 3 starts, going 1-2 with a 5.79 ERA. He really can’t be pitching any worse right now as he has only thrown 10 2/3 innings in his last 3 starts while carrying an ERA of 13.50. The Red Sox are playing solid baseball right now while the Orioles can’t say the same. One of the better pitchers is facing one of the worst pitchers lately. I’m not sure why the Red Sox are not favored by more, but I’ll bet the max (up to 5%) on them at -220.
In the second game today Jason Hammel is matched up against Max Scherzer. Hammel is turning into a serviceable starter as he has improved his control and is inducing more ground balls. His indicators tell me he has been throwing well lately, but has been a victim of bad luck. His K, BB, and hit rates are all really solid it’s just that he’s been giving a couple more runs than he should be. If he continues to pitch like he has things will turn around. It’s not like he has been bad over his last 4 starts with a 4.07 ERA, it’s just that it should be lower. He has also fared a lot better on the road as his ERA is 2.75 points lower. The hard throwing Scherzer has been pitching pretty well as of late, going 1-1 with a 2.61 in his last 3, but I do not think he will keep it up. His K rate is extremely low compared to his season average and that tells me his stuff might not be there this late into the season. Neither the Rockies nor the Diamondbacks are playing well lately, but I like the Rockies at +100 as they have fared well against Scherzer this year.
Bet
$44 BOS -220
$20 COL +100
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