Portfolio: $833 (-9.6% return)
S&P 500: $1065 (15.6% return)
Today's Games
Texas (-150) @ Boston (+140)
In the only game today newly acquired Cliff Lee is matched up against the struggling John Lackey. By staying in the American League, Cliff Lee has a chance for his second CY Young award. His indicators are career bests so it looks like he will continue his dominance and lead the Rangers to the postseason. He is exactly what the heavy hitting Rangers needed. John Lackey is looking like a bad acquisition for the Red Sox, and that has been rare the last few years. I don't know if he's hurt, feeling too much pressure, or just losing his stuff. Maybe it's a combination, but he is having his worst season as a pro. His indicators are horrible. His strikeouts per nine are down 1.5 from his career average, his walks per nine are up 1, and his hits per nine are up 1.5. That puts his indicators this year at fringe major league starter. Add that to the fact that Boston is missing serious offensive production and the Rangers at -150 look like a great pick. Max bet (5%) on Texas with a CY Young contender facing a makeshift lineup with a struggling starter.
Bets
$30 TEX -150
Showing posts with label boston red sox. Show all posts
Showing posts with label boston red sox. Show all posts
Saturday, July 17, 2010
Friday, October 9, 2009
Red Sox Lose – Down $22
Portfolio: $934 (1.4% return)
S&P 500: $1065 (15.6% return)
Today’s Games
Minnesota (+260) @ New York Yankees (-310)
Boston (-100) @ Los Angeles Angels (-110)
In the first game Nick Blackburn is matched up against A.J. Burnett. Blackburn has been really solid lately as he has had pinpoint control, walking only 1 in his last 27 1/3 innings. He will not strikeout many,( 4.29 K/9) gives up more than a hit per inning and is a fly ball pitcher that gives up home runs. But he has been really effective as of late as he has upped his K’s a good amount and has only had one bad start in his last nine. Burnett is an erratic pitcher that has been throwing well lately, although he doesn’t hesitate to give out the free pass. I have a feeling that Blackburn will frustrate the veteran Yankee lineup as he seems to be hitting his spots. I am not that worried that this is his first postseason game because the Twins have been playing like they have been in the postseason for the past month. The Twins are one of the hottest teams in baseball and I think they will rally back and make a good series. Blackburn is coming off a start in which he outdueled Zack Greinke, the probable American League CY Young winner, in a must win game. This is a good value play.
In the second game Josh Beckett is matched up against Jered Weaver. Beckett’s indicators aren’t the best lately as his hits and walks are up a little, but his strikeouts are there. Weaver has been throwing well lately and his indicators are right in line with his season averages. Beckett is a proven big game pitcher and I don’t think he’ll let his team go down 0-2.
Bets
$10 MIN +260
$20 BOS -100
S&P 500: $1065 (15.6% return)
Today’s Games
Minnesota (+260) @ New York Yankees (-310)
Boston (-100) @ Los Angeles Angels (-110)
In the first game Nick Blackburn is matched up against A.J. Burnett. Blackburn has been really solid lately as he has had pinpoint control, walking only 1 in his last 27 1/3 innings. He will not strikeout many,( 4.29 K/9) gives up more than a hit per inning and is a fly ball pitcher that gives up home runs. But he has been really effective as of late as he has upped his K’s a good amount and has only had one bad start in his last nine. Burnett is an erratic pitcher that has been throwing well lately, although he doesn’t hesitate to give out the free pass. I have a feeling that Blackburn will frustrate the veteran Yankee lineup as he seems to be hitting his spots. I am not that worried that this is his first postseason game because the Twins have been playing like they have been in the postseason for the past month. The Twins are one of the hottest teams in baseball and I think they will rally back and make a good series. Blackburn is coming off a start in which he outdueled Zack Greinke, the probable American League CY Young winner, in a must win game. This is a good value play.
In the second game Josh Beckett is matched up against Jered Weaver. Beckett’s indicators aren’t the best lately as his hits and walks are up a little, but his strikeouts are there. Weaver has been throwing well lately and his indicators are right in line with his season averages. Beckett is a proven big game pitcher and I don’t think he’ll let his team go down 0-2.
Bets
$10 MIN +260
$20 BOS -100
Thursday, October 8, 2009
Rough Day, 0-2 and Down $50
My free fall continues, but things will turn around.
Portfolio: $956 (3.8% return)
S&P 500: $1058 (14.9% return)
Today's Games
Boston (-110) @ Los Angeles Angels (-110)
In the only game I like today Jon Lester is matched up against John Lackey. Lester is probably the best left handed starter in the playoffs and he has been dominant in the second half on the season. He has had one bad start in the last 2 months and his indicators are really strong. Lackey is a solid veteran pitcher who has struggled lately. His hit rate is up and it has been slightly up all year which means he may be losing a little, but not too much to get worried. I like Boston to take game 1 as Lester is the more stable option.
Bets
$22 BOS
Tuesday, September 29, 2009
No Action Yesterday
Portfolio: $1103 (19.8% return)
S&P 500: $1063 (15.4% return)
Today’s Games
Toronto (+200) @ Boston (-220)
In the only game Ricky Romero is matched up against Clay Buchholz. Romero got off to a decent start, but has struggled in the second half of his rookie season. He has above average stuff, but his control just isn’t there. His walks have even been worse lately, and that’s not good when facing a patient Red Sox lineup. He has been lit up in 4 starts against the Sox this year going 0-3 with an 8.83 ERA. Buchholz has been solid since getting called up in mid-July, and had been lights out as of late. He’s pitching like the Red Sox believed he could, going 3-0 with a 0.67 ERA in his last 4. He is a strikeout pitcher who has had good control lately and gets a decent amount of ground balls. He has all the makings of a future ace and he might make a name for himself this postseason. He has dominated the Blue Jays in 3 starts this year going 3-0 with a 1.35 ERA. I believe Buchholz will take this start seriously as he wants to stay on top of his game and carry this momentum into the playoffs.
Bets
$22 BOS -220
S&P 500: $1063 (15.4% return)
Today’s Games
Toronto (+200) @ Boston (-220)
In the only game Ricky Romero is matched up against Clay Buchholz. Romero got off to a decent start, but has struggled in the second half of his rookie season. He has above average stuff, but his control just isn’t there. His walks have even been worse lately, and that’s not good when facing a patient Red Sox lineup. He has been lit up in 4 starts against the Sox this year going 0-3 with an 8.83 ERA. Buchholz has been solid since getting called up in mid-July, and had been lights out as of late. He’s pitching like the Red Sox believed he could, going 3-0 with a 0.67 ERA in his last 4. He is a strikeout pitcher who has had good control lately and gets a decent amount of ground balls. He has all the makings of a future ace and he might make a name for himself this postseason. He has dominated the Blue Jays in 3 starts this year going 3-0 with a 1.35 ERA. I believe Buchholz will take this start seriously as he wants to stay on top of his game and carry this momentum into the playoffs.
Bets
$22 BOS -220
Friday, September 25, 2009
No Action Yesterday
Portfolio: $1163 (26.3% return)
S&P 500: $1051 (14.1% return)
Today’s Games
Boston (-130) @ New York Yankees (+110)
New York Mets (+160) @ Florida (-180)
In the first game Jon Lester is matched up against Joba Chamberlain. Lester has turned into the best left handed starter in the American League and has really strong indicators. He has been pitching well lately and he has had success against the Yankees this year, so I expect he should put up another solid performance as he’s gearing up for the postseason. Chamberlain has been on an innings/pitch count limit this month and has really struggled during that span. He is 0-2 with an 8.31 ERA in his last 4 starts and that’s mainly due to lack of command. I like the Red Sox in this one as the Yankees will be dipping into the bullpen early while Lester should give the Sox at least 6 solid innings.
In the second game Tim Redding is matched up against Ricky Nolasco. Redding is a below average pitcher who will not strikeout many, walks a little too many, and gives up the long ball too much. Although he has a 3.00 ERA over his last 3 starts, I do not expect him to keep it up as his indicators are weak and he is benefitting from a low hit rate. Florida has also has their way with him this year as he has gone 1-2 with an 8.04 ERA in 3 starts. Nolasco is an inconsistent pitcher who has really good stuff. Although he has a 5.55 ERA over his last 4 starts, his indicators are top notch. Over that span his K/9 rate is 9.25 while his BB/9 rate is 1.48. Those are actually not far off from his season averages and with those indicators he should be in the CY Young talks, but instead he is 12-9 with a 5.34 ERA. I’ll take the guy with the good stuff against a weak lineup.
Bets
$39 BOS -130
$36 FLA -180
S&P 500: $1051 (14.1% return)
Today’s Games
Boston (-130) @ New York Yankees (+110)
New York Mets (+160) @ Florida (-180)
In the first game Jon Lester is matched up against Joba Chamberlain. Lester has turned into the best left handed starter in the American League and has really strong indicators. He has been pitching well lately and he has had success against the Yankees this year, so I expect he should put up another solid performance as he’s gearing up for the postseason. Chamberlain has been on an innings/pitch count limit this month and has really struggled during that span. He is 0-2 with an 8.31 ERA in his last 4 starts and that’s mainly due to lack of command. I like the Red Sox in this one as the Yankees will be dipping into the bullpen early while Lester should give the Sox at least 6 solid innings.
In the second game Tim Redding is matched up against Ricky Nolasco. Redding is a below average pitcher who will not strikeout many, walks a little too many, and gives up the long ball too much. Although he has a 3.00 ERA over his last 3 starts, I do not expect him to keep it up as his indicators are weak and he is benefitting from a low hit rate. Florida has also has their way with him this year as he has gone 1-2 with an 8.04 ERA in 3 starts. Nolasco is an inconsistent pitcher who has really good stuff. Although he has a 5.55 ERA over his last 4 starts, his indicators are top notch. Over that span his K/9 rate is 9.25 while his BB/9 rate is 1.48. Those are actually not far off from his season averages and with those indicators he should be in the CY Young talks, but instead he is 12-9 with a 5.34 ERA. I’ll take the guy with the good stuff against a weak lineup.
Bets
$39 BOS -130
$36 FLA -180
Wednesday, September 23, 2009
Dodgers and Royals Win Easily
Both games went just as I predicted and my portfolio gained $40.
Portfolio: $1177 (27.8% return)
S&P 500: $1072 (16.4% return)
Today’s Games
Philadelphia (-170) @ Florida (+150)
Boston (-200) @ Kansas City (+170)
In the first game Cole Hamels is matched up against Rick VandenHurk. After struggling for most of the year by his standards, Cole Hamels has found his groove as of late. During his struggles he was the victim of bad luck as his hit rate was high for no reason, but that has turned around recently. His indicators are really strong over his last 4 starts in which he has gone 3-1 with an 1.82 ERA and all signs point to him keeping it up. VandenHurk has also pitched well lately and has decent stuff, but gives out the free pass a little too frequently. He is also a fly ball pitcher which does not bode well when facing the Phillies. He has kept the ball in the park in his last 3 starts, but I do not see him keeping that up. I like the Phillies with their ace in postseason form to take this one.
In the second game Josh Beckett is matched up against Luke Hochevar. Beckett has had an up and down season, but he’s currently on the up part and looks to be gearing up for the playoffs. His indicators are strong and his homerun woes are behind him so I look for him to continue to deal. Hochevar is inconsistent but he’s coming off a complete game, 3 hit shutout. He has the potential to be a solid number 3 and possibly number 2 starter, but you never know what you’re going to get from him start to start. His indicators tell me that his ERA should be lower than 5.79. He has had 4 really good starts this year but has laid an egg in the following start 3 times. I look for Beckett to dominate a weak lineup and Hochevar to lay another egg after a solid performance.
Bets
$34 PHI -170
$40 BOS -200
Portfolio: $1177 (27.8% return)
S&P 500: $1072 (16.4% return)
Today’s Games
Philadelphia (-170) @ Florida (+150)
Boston (-200) @ Kansas City (+170)
In the first game Cole Hamels is matched up against Rick VandenHurk. After struggling for most of the year by his standards, Cole Hamels has found his groove as of late. During his struggles he was the victim of bad luck as his hit rate was high for no reason, but that has turned around recently. His indicators are really strong over his last 4 starts in which he has gone 3-1 with an 1.82 ERA and all signs point to him keeping it up. VandenHurk has also pitched well lately and has decent stuff, but gives out the free pass a little too frequently. He is also a fly ball pitcher which does not bode well when facing the Phillies. He has kept the ball in the park in his last 3 starts, but I do not see him keeping that up. I like the Phillies with their ace in postseason form to take this one.
In the second game Josh Beckett is matched up against Luke Hochevar. Beckett has had an up and down season, but he’s currently on the up part and looks to be gearing up for the playoffs. His indicators are strong and his homerun woes are behind him so I look for him to continue to deal. Hochevar is inconsistent but he’s coming off a complete game, 3 hit shutout. He has the potential to be a solid number 3 and possibly number 2 starter, but you never know what you’re going to get from him start to start. His indicators tell me that his ERA should be lower than 5.79. He has had 4 really good starts this year but has laid an egg in the following start 3 times. I look for Beckett to dominate a weak lineup and Hochevar to lay another egg after a solid performance.
Bets
$34 PHI -170
$40 BOS -200
Tuesday, September 22, 2009
No Action Yesterday
Portfolio: $1137 (23.5% return)
S&P 500: $1065 (15.6% return)
Today’s Games
Los Angeles Dodgers (-200) @ Washington (+170)
Boston (+130) @ Kansas City (-150)
In the first game Hiroki Kuroda is matched up against Livan Hernandez. Kuroda is a control pitcher who gets a few more ground balls than fly balls. He is not a strikeout pitcher but hitters struggle to find the sweet spot against him. Overall he’s a solid number 2 or 3 starter who has been pitching well lately. He’s 2-1 with a 2.84 ERA over his last 3 starts and his indicators are really strong. The soft tossing veteran Hernandez mainly relies on deception as he really does not have one strong indicator. This is most likely the reason why he is 8-11 with a 5.22 ERA this year. He has been decent his last 2 starts, going 1-1 with a 2.70, and that is exactly the reason why I like the Dodgers. Kuroda is on top of his game while Hernandez is due for a let down against the best team in the National League.
In the second game Paul Byrd is matched up against Zack Greinke. The veteran Byrd is similar to Livan Hernandez in the fact that he relies on the deception. The difference between the two is Byrd rarely gives up the walk, and that is why he has been better the last few years. Byrd has not been impressive in his brief time with the Red Sox as he is handing out about twice as much free passes compared to the past 6 years and batters and hitting him hard. Greinke is fine after leaving early in his last start due to being hit with a line drive in the elbow. He has been on top of his game lately and looks to add to his case for the American League CY Young award. Soft tossers like Byrd generally struggle against inexperienced hitters so the Royals should be able to put up a few runs early. Greinke should continue to roll and an impressive performance against a good hitting Red Sox team will definitely secure more votes.
Bets
$40 LAD -200
$30 KC -150
S&P 500: $1065 (15.6% return)
Today’s Games
Los Angeles Dodgers (-200) @ Washington (+170)
Boston (+130) @ Kansas City (-150)
In the first game Hiroki Kuroda is matched up against Livan Hernandez. Kuroda is a control pitcher who gets a few more ground balls than fly balls. He is not a strikeout pitcher but hitters struggle to find the sweet spot against him. Overall he’s a solid number 2 or 3 starter who has been pitching well lately. He’s 2-1 with a 2.84 ERA over his last 3 starts and his indicators are really strong. The soft tossing veteran Hernandez mainly relies on deception as he really does not have one strong indicator. This is most likely the reason why he is 8-11 with a 5.22 ERA this year. He has been decent his last 2 starts, going 1-1 with a 2.70, and that is exactly the reason why I like the Dodgers. Kuroda is on top of his game while Hernandez is due for a let down against the best team in the National League.
In the second game Paul Byrd is matched up against Zack Greinke. The veteran Byrd is similar to Livan Hernandez in the fact that he relies on the deception. The difference between the two is Byrd rarely gives up the walk, and that is why he has been better the last few years. Byrd has not been impressive in his brief time with the Red Sox as he is handing out about twice as much free passes compared to the past 6 years and batters and hitting him hard. Greinke is fine after leaving early in his last start due to being hit with a line drive in the elbow. He has been on top of his game lately and looks to add to his case for the American League CY Young award. Soft tossers like Byrd generally struggle against inexperienced hitters so the Royals should be able to put up a few runs early. Greinke should continue to roll and an impressive performance against a good hitting Red Sox team will definitely secure more votes.
Bets
$40 LAD -200
$30 KC -150
Saturday, September 19, 2009
No Action Yesterday
Portfolio: $1129 (22.6% return)
S&P 500: $1068 (16% return)
Today's Games
Boston (-220) @ Baltimore (+190)
Colorado (+100) @ Arizona (-110)
In the first game today Jon Lester is matched up against David Hernandez. Lester is becoming one of the better left handed pitchers in the game and one of the better pitchers in the American League. His K rate of 10.07 and BB rate of 2.86 are pretty close to Tim Lincecum’s with the main difference being he gives up more hits. Lester has been on top of his game lately going 3-0 with a 0.86 ERA over his last 3 starts. His hit rate is a little low over that span so that should start to tick up, but he will still be dominant. He has also carved up the Orioles this year, going 3-0 with a 0.84 ERA in 3 starts. Hernandez has struggled in his first stint in the big leagues, going 4-8 with a 5.40 ERA. There’s really not much to like so far as he does not miss many bats, issues too many free passes, and is an extreme fly ball pitcher which has led to him giving up 23 homeruns in 85 innings. He has also been lit up by the Red Sox this year in 3 starts, going 1-2 with a 5.79 ERA. He really can’t be pitching any worse right now as he has only thrown 10 2/3 innings in his last 3 starts while carrying an ERA of 13.50. The Red Sox are playing solid baseball right now while the Orioles can’t say the same. One of the better pitchers is facing one of the worst pitchers lately. I’m not sure why the Red Sox are not favored by more, but I’ll bet the max (up to 5%) on them at -220.
In the second game today Jason Hammel is matched up against Max Scherzer. Hammel is turning into a serviceable starter as he has improved his control and is inducing more ground balls. His indicators tell me he has been throwing well lately, but has been a victim of bad luck. His K, BB, and hit rates are all really solid it’s just that he’s been giving a couple more runs than he should be. If he continues to pitch like he has things will turn around. It’s not like he has been bad over his last 4 starts with a 4.07 ERA, it’s just that it should be lower. He has also fared a lot better on the road as his ERA is 2.75 points lower. The hard throwing Scherzer has been pitching pretty well as of late, going 1-1 with a 2.61 in his last 3, but I do not think he will keep it up. His K rate is extremely low compared to his season average and that tells me his stuff might not be there this late into the season. Neither the Rockies nor the Diamondbacks are playing well lately, but I like the Rockies at +100 as they have fared well against Scherzer this year.
Bet
$44 BOS -220
$20 COL +100
Tuesday, August 25, 2009
No Action Yesterday
Portfolio: $1065 (15.6% return)
S&P 500: $1026 (11.4% return)
Today’s Games
Philadelphia (-190) @ Pittsburgh (+170)
Chicago White Sox (+250) @ Boston (-300)
In the first game Joe Blanton is matched up against Ross Ohlendorf. Blanton is having a solid season and has a very respectable 3.25 K/BB ratio, but he has gotten into trouble when he gives up the long ball. Good thing for him that he is facing the light hitting Pirates in a pitchers ballpark. The Phillies should score enough off the soft tossing Ohlendorf for Blanton to pick up his 9th win.
In the second game Freddy Garcia is matched up against Jon Lester. Garcia is making only his second start of the season and he was roughed up pretty good in his first one. I do not see him pitching well against the potent Red Sox offense after barely pitching much of the last 3 seasons. Lester on the other hand has been pretty much lights out as of late, going 1-0 with a 2.00 ERA over his last 4 starts while striking out 11 per 9 and only walking 2.33 per 9. This should be an easy one for the Red Sox. I generally don't like to bet on heavy favorite's like this, but this is such a lopsided match up.
Bets
$38 PHI -190
$30 BOS -300
S&P 500: $1026 (11.4% return)
Today’s Games
Philadelphia (-190) @ Pittsburgh (+170)
Chicago White Sox (+250) @ Boston (-300)
In the first game Joe Blanton is matched up against Ross Ohlendorf. Blanton is having a solid season and has a very respectable 3.25 K/BB ratio, but he has gotten into trouble when he gives up the long ball. Good thing for him that he is facing the light hitting Pirates in a pitchers ballpark. The Phillies should score enough off the soft tossing Ohlendorf for Blanton to pick up his 9th win.
In the second game Freddy Garcia is matched up against Jon Lester. Garcia is making only his second start of the season and he was roughed up pretty good in his first one. I do not see him pitching well against the potent Red Sox offense after barely pitching much of the last 3 seasons. Lester on the other hand has been pretty much lights out as of late, going 1-0 with a 2.00 ERA over his last 4 starts while striking out 11 per 9 and only walking 2.33 per 9. This should be an easy one for the Red Sox. I generally don't like to bet on heavy favorite's like this, but this is such a lopsided match up.
Bets
$38 PHI -190
$30 BOS -300
Saturday, August 22, 2009
Giants Take Care Of Business
That was a pretty easy $32 last night as Aaron Cook's recent struggles continued. He left with a sore shoulder after only 47 pitches, so that could be part of the reason for his struggles. Sanchez on the other hand pitched normal by his standards. He was wild, struck out 8 and left after only 5 innings due to pitch count. If he can learn to throw more strikes before the seasons end and the Giants make the playoffs their pitching will be unstoppable.
Portfolio: $1088 (18.1% return)
S&P 500: $1026 (11.4% return)
For those of you not aware, when I started my blog a couple months ago the S&P 500 was at 921, so that's what my porfolio's starting value was. As you can see, I am getting a 6.7% higher return on my money than the S&P 500 since the start of my simulation.
Today's Games
New York Yankees (-150) @ Boston (+140)
St. Louis (-210) @ San Diego (+190)
In the first game I like today the hard throwing A.J. Burnett is matched up against the rookie Junichi Tazawa. Burnett is having a decent season, although the Yankees thought they were getting a little more when they signed him this off season. His strikeouts have dropped and his walks have increased this year. He's been getting the K's lately but he is still allowing too many walks. He has had a good history against the Red Sox and was dominant in his last start against them a few weeks back. Tazawa is a contact pitcher who is making his 3rd career start and has yet to make it past the 5th inning. His stuff isn't anything special and the Yankees should have no problem scoring runs and extending their division lead this afternoon.
In the second game Chris Carpenter is matched up against Kevin Correia. Carpenter is a top CY Young candidate who has been on top of his game lately. Corriea has been solid in his last 4 starts going 1-1 with a 2.22 ERA, but that shouldn't last. Over that time his strikeouts have dropped while his walks have increased, and he's been the beneficiary of a low hit rate. His K/BB ratio over that time is around 1, and that tells me his ERA is due for a spike. That's good news for Carpenter as the Cardinals should score enough runs for him to pick up another win and build his case for the CY Young.
Bets
$15 NYY -150
$42 STL -210
Friday, August 14, 2009
3-0, Up $60
I’m catching right back up to the S&P 500. A good day today and I might even be ahead of it.
Portfolio: $983 (6.7% return)
S&P 500: $1013 (10% return)
Today’s Games
Philadelphia (+120) @ Atlanta (-140)
Boston (+130) @ Texas (-150)
San Diego (+190) @ St. Louis (-230)
In the first game Joe Blanton is matched up against Jair Jurrjens in a battle between two hot division rivals. Blanton has upped his strikeouts and is having a solid season except that he has struggled to keep the ball in the yard. But playing in the pitcher friendly Atlanta should take care of that problem. Jurrjens is a good pitcher, but has been the beneficiary of good luck up until a few starts ago. The baseball gods are turning on him as he not stranding all base runners anymore. The Phillies will pull this one out to distance in an important series to distance themselves from the Braves.
In the second game Jon Lester is going up against Kevin Millwood. Lester has the strikeout and walk rates of an ace but has been the victim of bad luck. He’s even a slight ground ball pitcher. Millwood on the other hand has had some really good luck this year. His strikeouts are down and everything else looks normal, so the fact that his ERA is 3.38 tells me it will rise. Lester has been pitching great as of late and should keep it up against a Texas team that is coming back from a 10 game road trip.
In the third game Mat Latos is matched up against Adam Wainwright. Latos is a young prospect who has pitched well so far, but I think he will struggle against a lineup that includes Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday. The Cardinals ace, Wainwright, has been pitching great this year and should mow down the light hitting Padres.
Bets
$20 PHI +120
$20 BOS +130
$23 STL -230
Portfolio: $983 (6.7% return)
S&P 500: $1013 (10% return)
Today’s Games
Philadelphia (+120) @ Atlanta (-140)
Boston (+130) @ Texas (-150)
San Diego (+190) @ St. Louis (-230)
In the first game Joe Blanton is matched up against Jair Jurrjens in a battle between two hot division rivals. Blanton has upped his strikeouts and is having a solid season except that he has struggled to keep the ball in the yard. But playing in the pitcher friendly Atlanta should take care of that problem. Jurrjens is a good pitcher, but has been the beneficiary of good luck up until a few starts ago. The baseball gods are turning on him as he not stranding all base runners anymore. The Phillies will pull this one out to distance in an important series to distance themselves from the Braves.
In the second game Jon Lester is going up against Kevin Millwood. Lester has the strikeout and walk rates of an ace but has been the victim of bad luck. He’s even a slight ground ball pitcher. Millwood on the other hand has had some really good luck this year. His strikeouts are down and everything else looks normal, so the fact that his ERA is 3.38 tells me it will rise. Lester has been pitching great as of late and should keep it up against a Texas team that is coming back from a 10 game road trip.
In the third game Mat Latos is matched up against Adam Wainwright. Latos is a young prospect who has pitched well so far, but I think he will struggle against a lineup that includes Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday. The Cardinals ace, Wainwright, has been pitching great this year and should mow down the light hitting Padres.
Bets
$20 PHI +120
$20 BOS +130
$23 STL -230
Thursday, August 6, 2009
Rockies Lose 7-0
The Rockies lost as J.A. Happ threw his first complete game shoutout of his career. The S&P 500 also took the lead on my portfolio.
S&P 500: $1003 (8.9% return)
Today's Game
Boston (+190) @ New York Yankees (-210)
In the only game I like today John Smoltz is matched up against Joba Chamberlain. Smoltz has struggled this year and you can see my analysis on him from 7-31. Not much has changed and he should start to turn things around. Chamberlain started off slow but has been pitching great lately, going 3-0 with a 0.83 ERA in his last 3 starts. It looks like he has found his groove as his strikeout and walk rates are better than earlier in the year. But looking at his low hit rate of 3.3 over his last 3 starts it's pretty much a sure thing that he cannot keep up his recent dominance. Throw that in with the fact that the Red Sox have won all 8 games against the Yankees this year and are upset after getting swept in a short 2 game series against the Rays that put them 2.5 games back and you have a pretty good play at +190 with a proven big game pitcher.
Bet
$10 BOS +190
Saturday, August 1, 2009
Good Night Last Night
I won both games to bring my portfolio up $40 while the S&P 500 basically stood still.
Portfolio: $1017 (10.4% return)
S&P 500: $987 (7.2% return)
Today's Games
Boston (-180) @ Baltimore (+160)
The first game has Josh Beckett matched up against David Hernandez. The Red Sox ace is having a good season at 12-4 with a 3.44 ERA. He has increased his ground ball rate this year and that has lowered his hit rate. All other numbers are right where they should be. Hernandez does not impress me so far. He's an extreme fly ball pitcher who doesn't strikeout many, but he has decent control. I do not see the Red Sox struggling to score runs against Hernandez and believe -180 is a good play.
Bets
$36 BOS -180
Portfolio: $1017 (10.4% return)
S&P 500: $987 (7.2% return)
Today's Games
Boston (-180) @ Baltimore (+160)
The first game has Josh Beckett matched up against David Hernandez. The Red Sox ace is having a good season at 12-4 with a 3.44 ERA. He has increased his ground ball rate this year and that has lowered his hit rate. All other numbers are right where they should be. Hernandez does not impress me so far. He's an extreme fly ball pitcher who doesn't strikeout many, but he has decent control. I do not see the Red Sox struggling to score runs against Hernandez and believe -180 is a good play.
Bets
$36 BOS -180
Friday, July 31, 2009
No Action
I didn’t like any games and the S&P 500 gained a little.
Portfolio: $977 (6.1% return)
S&P 500: $987 (7.2% return)
Today’s Games
Boston (-130) @ Baltimore (+110)
Colorado (-150) @ Cincinnati (+130)
The first game has the veteran John Smoltz matched up against Jeremy Guthrie. Smoltz has gotten off to a rough start with a 1-4 record and 7.04 ERA, but by looking into his numbers I can see things turning around. His strikeouts are still there and so is his control. What has hurt him is his high hit rate, which is 50% higher than his career average. His ground ball rate is down a little so it is expected he will give up more hits, but not this much. I would not be surprised if he strung together some good starts soon. Guthrie has been struggling all year with a 7-9 record and 5.21 ERA. His other numbers don’t look too good either. His strikeouts are slightly down and his walks are slightly up. He also has the lowest ground ball rate in his career and actually has been giving up more fly balls than ground balls this year. This has lead to a higher hit rate and more home runs, not good. I look for Smoltz’s luck to turn around and the Red Sox to pick up the victory.
The second game has Aaron Cook going up against Justin Lehr. Cook is a heavy ground ball pitcher who always keeps his team in the game. He will very rarely go out and dominate, but he will also very rarely get rocked. He has upped his strikeouts by about 1 K/9 from his career average, and his walks and ground balls are right in line with his averages. Lehr hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2006 and isn’t anything special. His minor league numbers won’t make you look twice and the Rockies should have a field day against a pitcher making his first start in 3 years. I also like the fact that Cincinnati’s ballpark is a band box and Colorado can hit with the best of them. The Rockies played a double header and had to travel yesterday, and this is probably the reason why the line is at -150 compared to -200. I’ll take my chances they’ll have enough energy as they are pushing for a playoff spot against the slumping Reds.
Bets
$26 BOS -130
$30 COL -150
Portfolio: $977 (6.1% return)
S&P 500: $987 (7.2% return)
Today’s Games
Boston (-130) @ Baltimore (+110)
Colorado (-150) @ Cincinnati (+130)
The first game has the veteran John Smoltz matched up against Jeremy Guthrie. Smoltz has gotten off to a rough start with a 1-4 record and 7.04 ERA, but by looking into his numbers I can see things turning around. His strikeouts are still there and so is his control. What has hurt him is his high hit rate, which is 50% higher than his career average. His ground ball rate is down a little so it is expected he will give up more hits, but not this much. I would not be surprised if he strung together some good starts soon. Guthrie has been struggling all year with a 7-9 record and 5.21 ERA. His other numbers don’t look too good either. His strikeouts are slightly down and his walks are slightly up. He also has the lowest ground ball rate in his career and actually has been giving up more fly balls than ground balls this year. This has lead to a higher hit rate and more home runs, not good. I look for Smoltz’s luck to turn around and the Red Sox to pick up the victory.
The second game has Aaron Cook going up against Justin Lehr. Cook is a heavy ground ball pitcher who always keeps his team in the game. He will very rarely go out and dominate, but he will also very rarely get rocked. He has upped his strikeouts by about 1 K/9 from his career average, and his walks and ground balls are right in line with his averages. Lehr hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2006 and isn’t anything special. His minor league numbers won’t make you look twice and the Rockies should have a field day against a pitcher making his first start in 3 years. I also like the fact that Cincinnati’s ballpark is a band box and Colorado can hit with the best of them. The Rockies played a double header and had to travel yesterday, and this is probably the reason why the line is at -150 compared to -200. I’ll take my chances they’ll have enough energy as they are pushing for a playoff spot against the slumping Reds.
Bets
$26 BOS -130
$30 COL -150
Tuesday, July 21, 2009
Dropped Both
It’s never good when you go 0-fer. The S&P 500 also made a little gain to top off a bad night.
Portfolio: $1007 (9.3% return)
S&P 500: $951 (3.3% return)
Today’s Game
Boston (-160) @ Texas (+140)
In today’s game Josh Beckett is matched up against Tommy Hunter. Beckett is having a solid season with an 11-3 record and a 3.35 ERA. He has started to get more ground balls and his hit rate has dropped because of that. He struggled with more walks than normal earlier this year, but has since corrected that and it is not a concern. He’s been on top of his game lately and I look for him to pitch well after his team lost yesterday. Hunter is a young pitcher making his 8th career start. He had a solid but not spectacular minor league career, showing good control. He strikeout rates were average and it doesn’t look like he’s either a heavy ground ball or fly ball pitcher. Either way, the veteran Red Sox lineup will make him work and this should be an easy win for the Sox with their ace on the mound.
Bets
$32 BOS -160
Portfolio: $1007 (9.3% return)
S&P 500: $951 (3.3% return)
Today’s Game
Boston (-160) @ Texas (+140)
In today’s game Josh Beckett is matched up against Tommy Hunter. Beckett is having a solid season with an 11-3 record and a 3.35 ERA. He has started to get more ground balls and his hit rate has dropped because of that. He struggled with more walks than normal earlier this year, but has since corrected that and it is not a concern. He’s been on top of his game lately and I look for him to pitch well after his team lost yesterday. Hunter is a young pitcher making his 8th career start. He had a solid but not spectacular minor league career, showing good control. He strikeout rates were average and it doesn’t look like he’s either a heavy ground ball or fly ball pitcher. Either way, the veteran Red Sox lineup will make him work and this should be an easy win for the Sox with their ace on the mound.
Bets
$32 BOS -160
Monday, July 20, 2009
Giants Finally Win Low Scoring Affair
Matt Cain and Zach Duke both pitched well, but Cain was a little better and the Giants offense finally decided to score a little. I won $20.
Portfolio: $1051 (14.1% return)
S&P 500: $940 (2.1% return)
Today’s Games
San Francisco (+150) @ Atlanta (-170)
Boston (-110) @ Texas (-120)
The first game has Jonathan Sanchez going up against Tommy Hanson. Sanchez is coming off a near perfect game (Uribe error). He strikes out a lot of hitters, 9.04 K/9, but also walks a lot, 5.26 BB/9. He generally doesn’t make it past the 6th inning due to pitch count, but you can see how dominant he can be when he can command his pitches. Hanson is a young prospect who was dominant in the minors. While his 4-0 record and 2.85 ERA make you think he has carried his skills over to the majors, his indicators say otherwise. His strikeout rate is low at 5.49 K/9 and walks are high at 4.39 BB/9. Also, his hit rate of 7.24 H/9 seems a little low given that he’s a minor fly ball pitcher. Over his last 3 starts it looks like he has fixed his control while walking only 5 in 18 innings as his walk rate in the minors was 3.3 BB/9, but the strikeouts haven’t came yet. His major league strikeout rate of 5.5 K/9 is way below his minor league rate of 10.4 K/9. Sanchez’s last start should have given him confidence and I believe it will carry over into tonight’s game. Hanson’s ERA is unsustainable at the rate he is pitching and I hope the Giants offense will give Sanchez enough run support. At +150, I think it’s worth the risk.
The second game has John Smoltz matched up against Kevin Millwood. It looks like Smoltz still has some left as his strikeout, walk, and ground ball rates are all in line with his career averages. His hit rate through his first 4 starts is about 25% higher than the last 5 years, and that has lead to a 5.40 ERA. With all his other indicators being normal, his hit rate should start to regress. Millwood is starting to show signs of wearing down. His strikeouts are down and walks are up, especially in his last 3 starts. He is 0-2 with an 8.83 ERA with 9 strikeouts and 8 walks in 17 1/3 innings. Both offenses and defenses are good, but the Red Sox are a little better at each. I like the Red Sox at -110 and the reason why I think they are not favored by more is doubts about Smoltz, but his indicators tell me he still has it.
Bets
$20 SF +150
$22 BOS -110
Portfolio: $1051 (14.1% return)
S&P 500: $940 (2.1% return)
Today’s Games
San Francisco (+150) @ Atlanta (-170)
Boston (-110) @ Texas (-120)
The first game has Jonathan Sanchez going up against Tommy Hanson. Sanchez is coming off a near perfect game (Uribe error). He strikes out a lot of hitters, 9.04 K/9, but also walks a lot, 5.26 BB/9. He generally doesn’t make it past the 6th inning due to pitch count, but you can see how dominant he can be when he can command his pitches. Hanson is a young prospect who was dominant in the minors. While his 4-0 record and 2.85 ERA make you think he has carried his skills over to the majors, his indicators say otherwise. His strikeout rate is low at 5.49 K/9 and walks are high at 4.39 BB/9. Also, his hit rate of 7.24 H/9 seems a little low given that he’s a minor fly ball pitcher. Over his last 3 starts it looks like he has fixed his control while walking only 5 in 18 innings as his walk rate in the minors was 3.3 BB/9, but the strikeouts haven’t came yet. His major league strikeout rate of 5.5 K/9 is way below his minor league rate of 10.4 K/9. Sanchez’s last start should have given him confidence and I believe it will carry over into tonight’s game. Hanson’s ERA is unsustainable at the rate he is pitching and I hope the Giants offense will give Sanchez enough run support. At +150, I think it’s worth the risk.
The second game has John Smoltz matched up against Kevin Millwood. It looks like Smoltz still has some left as his strikeout, walk, and ground ball rates are all in line with his career averages. His hit rate through his first 4 starts is about 25% higher than the last 5 years, and that has lead to a 5.40 ERA. With all his other indicators being normal, his hit rate should start to regress. Millwood is starting to show signs of wearing down. His strikeouts are down and walks are up, especially in his last 3 starts. He is 0-2 with an 8.83 ERA with 9 strikeouts and 8 walks in 17 1/3 innings. Both offenses and defenses are good, but the Red Sox are a little better at each. I like the Red Sox at -110 and the reason why I think they are not favored by more is doubts about Smoltz, but his indicators tell me he still has it.
Bets
$20 SF +150
$22 BOS -110
Tuesday, June 30, 2009
Lincecum Throws A Gem
The two wins last night bumped my portfolio up $50. Both my portfolio and the S&P 500 were at $921 when I started last week.
Portfolio: $993 (7.8% return)
S&P 500: $927 (0.7% return)
Today's Games
Boston (-130) @ Baltimore (+110)
Minnesota (-140) @ Kansas City (+130)
San Francisco (+190) @ St. Louis (-200)
The first game has John Smoltz matched up against Rich Hill. Smoltz has had one start this year after coming back from injury are didn’t fare too well. He lasted 5 innings, giving up 5 earned runs on 7 hits against the lowly Nationals. 4 of those runs were given up in the first inning, and he really settled down after that. He did manage to strikeout 5 and only walk 1, proving that he still should have good stuff with good control. He was probably just tight and nervous in his first start for the Red Sox, his first game with a team other than the Braves in 20 years. Most of the young Orioles have never seen him before. Rich Hill is off to 3-2 start but with a bad 6.03 ERA. Hill has good stuff and can rack up strikeouts, 8.2 K/9, but can’t seem to control it, 5.79 BB/9. His walk rate is above his career average of 3.86 BB/9, but he’s not showing any signs of improving on that number. This is probably due to injury. The Red Sox offense should knock Hill out by the 6th inning as they have a patient lineup that doesn’t strikeout too much. At -130 the line is just enough to make me like the Red Sox and the veteran Smoltz.
The second game has Scott Baker going up against Brain Bannister. Baker is 5-6 with a 5.17 ERA, but is one of the most underrated pitchers in the game. He’s strikeout rate and walk rate are the best in his career, and his hit rate is normal. His 4.5 K/BB rate is one of the best in the majors. The long ball is what has been hurting him, mainly earlier in the season. He has already given up 17 homeruns in 87 innings compared to 20 in 172 innings last year, and he’s actually giving up fewer fly balls this year. Well in his last 4 starts he is 2-0 with a 3.62 ERA while only allowing 2 homeruns, so he seems to have that under control. And playing the Royals, he should not be too worried about giving up homeruns. Brian Bannister is about as average as they come with a 5-5 record and a 4.17 ERA. He doesn’t strikeout many, 5.45 K/9, doesn’t walk many, 2.9 BB/9, and is not a heavy ground ball pitcher. The better than average Twins offense should score a few off him, and that should be enough for Baker who has a chance to throw a gem tonight.
One more game I like today. Randy Johnson is going up against Chris Carpenter. Johnson is pitching really well as of late, going 4-1 with a 2.57 ERA in his last 7 starts. He still has some left in the tank as his strikeout rate, walk rate, and hit rate all are normal. The Giants have also been playing well as of late. You can see my analysis on Carpenter from 6/25. I still feel the same way about him. His hit rate is way too low and his strikeout rate is not where it used to be. He should not be putting up a 1.78 ERA. His control is still there, as his walk rate is the best of his career, but that shouldn’t matter too much as the Giants swing at everything. The Cardinals offense has gone cold the last couple games, so taking the Giants is a good value pick here.
Bets
$26 BOS -130
$28 MIN -140
$10 SF +190
Portfolio: $993 (7.8% return)
S&P 500: $927 (0.7% return)
Today's Games
Boston (-130) @ Baltimore (+110)
Minnesota (-140) @ Kansas City (+130)
San Francisco (+190) @ St. Louis (-200)
The first game has John Smoltz matched up against Rich Hill. Smoltz has had one start this year after coming back from injury are didn’t fare too well. He lasted 5 innings, giving up 5 earned runs on 7 hits against the lowly Nationals. 4 of those runs were given up in the first inning, and he really settled down after that. He did manage to strikeout 5 and only walk 1, proving that he still should have good stuff with good control. He was probably just tight and nervous in his first start for the Red Sox, his first game with a team other than the Braves in 20 years. Most of the young Orioles have never seen him before. Rich Hill is off to 3-2 start but with a bad 6.03 ERA. Hill has good stuff and can rack up strikeouts, 8.2 K/9, but can’t seem to control it, 5.79 BB/9. His walk rate is above his career average of 3.86 BB/9, but he’s not showing any signs of improving on that number. This is probably due to injury. The Red Sox offense should knock Hill out by the 6th inning as they have a patient lineup that doesn’t strikeout too much. At -130 the line is just enough to make me like the Red Sox and the veteran Smoltz.
The second game has Scott Baker going up against Brain Bannister. Baker is 5-6 with a 5.17 ERA, but is one of the most underrated pitchers in the game. He’s strikeout rate and walk rate are the best in his career, and his hit rate is normal. His 4.5 K/BB rate is one of the best in the majors. The long ball is what has been hurting him, mainly earlier in the season. He has already given up 17 homeruns in 87 innings compared to 20 in 172 innings last year, and he’s actually giving up fewer fly balls this year. Well in his last 4 starts he is 2-0 with a 3.62 ERA while only allowing 2 homeruns, so he seems to have that under control. And playing the Royals, he should not be too worried about giving up homeruns. Brian Bannister is about as average as they come with a 5-5 record and a 4.17 ERA. He doesn’t strikeout many, 5.45 K/9, doesn’t walk many, 2.9 BB/9, and is not a heavy ground ball pitcher. The better than average Twins offense should score a few off him, and that should be enough for Baker who has a chance to throw a gem tonight.
One more game I like today. Randy Johnson is going up against Chris Carpenter. Johnson is pitching really well as of late, going 4-1 with a 2.57 ERA in his last 7 starts. He still has some left in the tank as his strikeout rate, walk rate, and hit rate all are normal. The Giants have also been playing well as of late. You can see my analysis on Carpenter from 6/25. I still feel the same way about him. His hit rate is way too low and his strikeout rate is not where it used to be. He should not be putting up a 1.78 ERA. His control is still there, as his walk rate is the best of his career, but that shouldn’t matter too much as the Giants swing at everything. The Cardinals offense has gone cold the last couple games, so taking the Giants is a good value pick here.
Bets
$26 BOS -130
$28 MIN -140
$10 SF +190
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