Great Game Last Night

The Tigers/Twins game last night was one of the better baseball games I’ve seen in a while and that got me pumped up for the playoffs.

Portfolio: $1006 (9.2% return)
S&P 500: $1055 (14.5% return)

Today’s Games

Colorado (+120) @ Philadelphia (-140)
St. Louis (-150) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (+130)

In the first game Ubaldo Jimenez is matched up against Cliff Lee. Jimenez went 15-12 with a 3.47 ERA this season and is a very unique pitcher. He is a flamer thrower and a heavy ground ball pitcher. I do not believe anyone has the combined strikeout and ground ball ratios he does. Over his last 4 starts he is fanning 12.35 batters per nine and that is about the highest you’ll see from any pitcher. By being a heavy ground ball pitcher he keeps the ball in the park, giving up only 13 homeruns in 218 innings. His problem is walks, and he has struggled with those lately. His walk rate per nine over his last 4 starts is 4.78 compared to his 3.51 season average. Jimenez also was also successful in the postseason 2 years ago, posting a 2.25 ERA in 16 innings. Lee was unhittable in his first month with the Phillies but has been pretty average as of late. His indicators are strong, but he has struggled with a high hit rate all season and that’s not good when facing a really good hitting lineup. Lee has no previous postseason experience and really hasn’t pitched in too many big games in his career. Some pitchers take off running in these situations, but most have a learning curve. I look for the Rockies to take game 1 as Jimenez should be able to take away the Phillies biggest strength, the long ball.

In the second game Chris Carpenter is matched up against Randy Wolf. Carpenter will probably win the National League CY Young and has only had one hiccup in the second half. His indicators look solid so he should give his team a good chance to win. His career postseason numbers are really good, going 5-1 with a 2.53 ERA. Wolf has been the Dodgers most consistent starter all year long. He improved his walk rate, but what really helped him was a low hit rate. His low hit rate was not caused by an increased ground ball rate so it was most likely due to better defense, a new pitch and luck. Over his last 4 starts his indicators are really weak even though he posted a 3.33 ERA. His ERA is will rise if he continues to pitch like he has been, and that’s not good news when facing the Cardinals and Chris Carpenter. Wolf has no postseason experience and looks to be tiring down the stretch. I like the Cardinals to win game 1 pretty easy.

Bets

$20 COL +120
$30 STL -150

Rough Night - Down $75

Looks like I was way off on the Red Sox game as Lester was the one who lasted 2 1/3 innings and Chamberlain went 6. The Marlins also blew a save after burning me Wednesday night by coming back against Philadelphia. It's tough going 0-fer when betting favorites in baseball, but overall my portfolio is still in decent shape. I'm still not comfortable betting on college football yet.

Portfolio: $1088 (18.1% return)

S&P 500: $1044 (13.4% return)

Today's Games

St. Louis (+130) @ Colorado (-140)

In the only game today Adam Wainwright is matched up against Ubaldo Jimenez in a possible division series match up. Wainwright is sharp right now and is looking to lock up some more votes for the CY Young and clinch the division for his team. I do not see a weakness in his game. Jimenez is the Rockies ace and is looking to help his team nail down the wild card, but has been inconsistent lately as his walk rate has spiked. I like the Cardinals in a good value play here.

Bet

$20 STL +130

No Action Yesterday

Portfolio: $1129 (22.6% return)

S&P 500: $1068 (16% return)

Today's Games

Boston (-220) @ Baltimore (+190)

Colorado (+100) @ Arizona (-110)

In the first game today Jon Lester is matched up against David Hernandez. Lester is becoming one of the better left handed pitchers in the game and one of the better pitchers in the American League. His K rate of 10.07 and BB rate of 2.86 are pretty close to Tim Lincecum’s with the main difference being he gives up more hits. Lester has been on top of his game lately going 3-0 with a 0.86 ERA over his last 3 starts. His hit rate is a little low over that span so that should start to tick up, but he will still be dominant. He has also carved up the Orioles this year, going 3-0 with a 0.84 ERA in 3 starts. Hernandez has struggled in his first stint in the big leagues, going 4-8 with a 5.40 ERA. There’s really not much to like so far as he does not miss many bats, issues too many free passes, and is an extreme fly ball pitcher which has led to him giving up 23 homeruns in 85 innings. He has also been lit up by the Red Sox this year in 3 starts, going 1-2 with a 5.79 ERA. He really can’t be pitching any worse right now as he has only thrown 10 2/3 innings in his last 3 starts while carrying an ERA of 13.50. The Red Sox are playing solid baseball right now while the Orioles can’t say the same. One of the better pitchers is facing one of the worst pitchers lately. I’m not sure why the Red Sox are not favored by more, but I’ll bet the max (up to 5%) on them at -220.

In the second game today Jason Hammel is matched up against Max Scherzer. Hammel is turning into a serviceable starter as he has improved his control and is inducing more ground balls. His indicators tell me he has been throwing well lately, but has been a victim of bad luck. His K, BB, and hit rates are all really solid it’s just that he’s been giving a couple more runs than he should be. If he continues to pitch like he has things will turn around. It’s not like he has been bad over his last 4 starts with a 4.07 ERA, it’s just that it should be lower. He has also fared a lot better on the road as his ERA is 2.75 points lower. The hard throwing Scherzer has been pitching pretty well as of late, going 1-1 with a 2.61 in his last 3, but I do not think he will keep it up. His K rate is extremely low compared to his season average and that tells me his stuff might not be there this late into the season. Neither the Rockies nor the Diamondbacks are playing well lately, but I like the Rockies at +100 as they have fared well against Scherzer this year.

Bet

$44 BOS -220

$20 COL +100

No Action Yesterday

It’s nice to see the NFL season starting again. I might bet a couple games next week now that I have a little feel for the teams. The one thing to remember about the NFL is that teams are not as good or bad as you think. I generally like to bet on teams that looked horrible the week before or against media over-hyped teams. A good example of this theory was the Jets/Texans game yesterday. The Jets were starting a rookie on the road while the Texans were supposed to have a high powered offense, so the -5 line seemed a little low. I bet Vegas made a killing on that game.

Portfolio: $1092 (18.6% return)
S&P 500: $1043 (13.2% return)

Today’s Games

Cleveland (+140) @ Minnesota (-160)
Colorado (+170) @ San Francisco (-180)

In the first game Jeremy Sowers is matched up against Carl Pavano. Sowers is a soft tossing left hander who has control issues. He really is not a major league pitcher, and I have yet to figure out why the Indians continue to give him opportunities. His K’s are way below the major league average at 3.69 and his walks are above the major league average at 3.61. He is also a fly ball pitcher. Not much to like here. Pavano is having an average season after being out most of the last 3 years due to injury. His indicators are pretty good and he has been throwing well over the last few months. He does occasionally get lit up, and that has really hurt his overall numbers. I doubt the Indians will light him up, and the Twins should be able to cross the plate a few times against Sowers.

In the second game Jason Hammel is matched up against Tim Lincecum. Hammel is turning into a solid middle of the rotation starter, and has been throwing well as of late. But I do not think he will out duel the rested Lincecum, who had his last start skipped due to a stiff lower back. Lincecum should have a little extra on his pitches and I really would not be surprised to see him go the distance in this must win game. The kid is so competitive that once he’s out there on the mound he will be fine.

Bet

$16 MIN -160
$36 SF -180

No Action Yesterday

Portfolio: $1037 (12.6% return)
S&P 500: $1031 (11.9% return)

Today’s Games

Chicago White Sox (+200) @ New York Yankees (-240)
Washington (+170) @ St. Louis (-190)
Colorado (+110) @ San Francisco (-130)

In the first game Mark Buehrle is matched up against CC Sabathia. Buehrle has struggled ever since his perfect game and has been getting hit hard lately while his K’s have dropped. Sabathia has won his last 4 starts and is in CY Young form. His pinpoint control and increased K rate are the main drivers behind that. When he can throw all three of his pitches for strikes it’s really hard to score runs off him. I look for the Yankees and CC to cruise in this one.

In the second game John Lannan is matched up against John Smoltz. Lannan has been getting absolutely tagged lately as his ERA is 12.00 over his last 3 starts, not good news facing the Cardinals. Smoltz is coming off his only decent start this year, and should have the confidence he lacked earlier in the season with the Red Sox. I’ve been saying all along that he still has some left in the tank, and if you type in “Smoltz” in the search on the top left corner of the page you can see my past analysis of him. His K and BB rates are right in line with his last 2 healthy seasons. I like the Cardinals to win easily.

In the third game Ubaldo Jimenez is matched up against Tim Lincecum for the second time in 5 days. Jimenez pitched great and Lincecum pitched below his standards and the Rockies won 4-2. Jimenez is on top of his game right now, but I find it hard to believe that Lincecum won’t be up for the challenge to get even. Lincecum has struggled with control his last 2 starts, so if he can get that fixed, which I think he will, he should be in a position to dominate. This is a true test for both starters in another huge series, and Lincecum will come out on top this time.

Bets

$24 NYY -240
$19 STL -190
$26 SF -130

Split, Down $3

The Phillies won easily while Josh Johnson and the Marlins struggled.

Portfolio: $1056 (14.7% return)
S&P 500: $1007 (9.3% return)

Today’s Game

San Francisco (+160) @ Colorado (-180)

In the only game I like today Jonathan Sanchez is matched up against Aaron Cook. Sanchez is an erratic pitcher who has good stuff. His strikeout and hit rates tell me his stuff is pretty good, and the fact that he threw a no hitter puts his stuff up there with the best. His problem is he walks way too many. Even with 10 walks in his last 19 innings, he has gone 1-1 with a 2.84 ERA over that time which tells me he is at the top of his game stuff wise. Believe it or not, Sanchez’s indicators are almost identical to Clayton Kershaw’s. Kershaw has had some luck in his hit rate and strand rate which is why his ERA is 2.96 compared to 4.49 for Sanchez. The veteran Cook is usually a solid ground ball pitcher who keeps his team in the game, but he has reverted back to his early season form and that’s not good news for the Rockies. He is 0-2 with an 8.36 ERA over his last 3 starts. His walks have increased, strikeouts decreased, and he is giving up the long ball. If he can’t snap out of this funk he could be in for a long night even against a light hitting Giants team. I like the Giants in game 1 of their biggest series of the year.

Bet

$20 SF +160

No Games Last Night

Portfolio: $1017 (10.4% return)
S&P 500: $1006 (9.2% return)

Today’s Game

Colorado (+150) @ Philadelphia (-170)

In the only game I like today Jorge De Le Rosa is matched up against J.A. Happ. De La Rosa has been pitching pretty good lately going 5-0 with a 2.50 ERA in the month of July. The lefty strikes out about a hitter per inning, gets more ground balls than fly balls, but walks a little too many at 3.84 BB/9. His walk rate is actually down from his 4.68 career rate and that is why he has enjoyed success this season. His ERA is 4.68 for the year, but he was roughed up pretty good in May and June. When he doesn’t issue free passes he can be a tough matchup. Happ has had success in his rookie season going 7-2 with a 2.97 ERA. His 6.45 strikeout rate and 2.97 walk rate are about average, but his hit rate of 7.47 seems a little low given the fact that he is a fly ball pitcher. His hit rate looks like it’s ticking up lately as he has allowed 18 hits in his last 19 innings, and his ERA has been rising and should continue to rise if his indicators stay the same. The Rockies have won 5 in a row while the Phillies have dropped 3 in a row and 5 out of 6. I look for these trends to continue and like the +150 odds the lefty De La Rosa is getting against a lefty heavy lineup.

Bets

$20 COL +150

No Action

I didn’t like any games and the S&P 500 gained a little.

Portfolio: $977 (6.1% return)
S&P 500: $987 (7.2% return)

Today’s Games

Boston (-130) @ Baltimore (+110)
Colorado (-150) @ Cincinnati (+130)

The first game has the veteran John Smoltz matched up against Jeremy Guthrie. Smoltz has gotten off to a rough start with a 1-4 record and 7.04 ERA, but by looking into his numbers I can see things turning around. His strikeouts are still there and so is his control. What has hurt him is his high hit rate, which is 50% higher than his career average. His ground ball rate is down a little so it is expected he will give up more hits, but not this much. I would not be surprised if he strung together some good starts soon. Guthrie has been struggling all year with a 7-9 record and 5.21 ERA. His other numbers don’t look too good either. His strikeouts are slightly down and his walks are slightly up. He also has the lowest ground ball rate in his career and actually has been giving up more fly balls than ground balls this year. This has lead to a higher hit rate and more home runs, not good. I look for Smoltz’s luck to turn around and the Red Sox to pick up the victory.

The second game has Aaron Cook going up against Justin Lehr. Cook is a heavy ground ball pitcher who always keeps his team in the game. He will very rarely go out and dominate, but he will also very rarely get rocked. He has upped his strikeouts by about 1 K/9 from his career average, and his walks and ground balls are right in line with his averages. Lehr hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2006 and isn’t anything special. His minor league numbers won’t make you look twice and the Rockies should have a field day against a pitcher making his first start in 3 years. I also like the fact that Cincinnati’s ballpark is a band box and Colorado can hit with the best of them. The Rockies played a double header and had to travel yesterday, and this is probably the reason why the line is at -150 compared to -200. I’ll take my chances they’ll have enough energy as they are pushing for a playoff spot against the slumping Reds.

Bets

$26 BOS -130
$30 COL -150

Best Bet Was No Bet

Good thing I backed off the 2 games that popped out yesterday. The Diamondbacks look to be heating up and the Royals couldn't hit the rookie left hander even though Greinke pitched solid.

Portfolio: $1000 (8.6% return)
S&P 500: $880 (-4.5% return)

Today's Game

Atlanta (+110) @ Colorado (-130)

Today's game has undefeated rookie Tommy Hanson going up against Aaron Cook. Hanson is 4-0 with a 2.25 ERA to start off his career, but I believe he is in for his first loss tonight. He has not been striking out batters anywhere near the rate he did in the minors, and his hit rate is pretty low and should begin to tick up. He seems to have found his control in his last 2 starts, after walking 15 in his first 23 innings, but the Rockies are a patient team and will make him work. Aaron Cook has been pitching really good as of late, going 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA in his last 4 starts. His strikeout rate, walk rate, hit rate, and groundball rate are all normal. Cook struggled early in the season, walking more batters than normal and giving up an unusual amount of home runs, but he has corrected those and has been one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball lately. Look for Cook pitch solid and Hanson to last no more than 6 innings.

Bet

$26 COL -130

First Win

That was an easy $44 last night, with the Rockies easily winning 11-1. Here's the updated financial situation. Remember, this is not real money, just a simulation to see how much I can outgain the stock market.

Betting: $965 (4.8% return)
S&P 500: 893 (-3% return)

Today's Picks

Two late game's look good tonight, San Francisco (-130) @ Oakland (+110) and Colorado (+100) @ LA Angels (-120).

Tim Lincecum is going up against the rookie Vin Mazzaro for the second time this year. The Giants won with Lincecum throwing a complete game shutout a couple weeks ago. Lincecum is the best pitcher in all of baseball in my opinion, with 3 plus pitches he can throw at any time. He's a high strikeout pitcher that gets a good amount of goundballs, pretty rare. Mazzaro is a good prospect that has shown he is hard to hit. Not a big strikeout pitcher, but has decent control. This is right up Lincecum's alley with Oakland being a poor hitting team and their ballpark being a pitcher's park. The Giants should win a low scoring affair tonight with Lincecum possibly throwing another gem.

Ubaldo Jimenez is matched up against another rookie Sean O'Sullivan in the second game. Jimenez is a heavy ground ball pitcher that throws hard. He's not really a strikeout pitcher, but if his stuff is good, he can miss some bats. O'Sullivan is a decent prospect that has pretty good control for a youngster. Not a big strikeout pitcher, but has shown good K/BB ratio's in the past. He has struggled in the minors this year going 6-4 with a 5.88 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP while splitting time in AA and AAA. The Rockies are on fire lately and should jump on the righty O'Sullivan early with their lefty dominant lineup.

I like the veterans, if you can call Lincecum and Jimenez veterans, to previal against the good prospects in both games. I like the Rockies hitting and the Athletics lack of hitting.

Bets

$39 SF -130
$30 COL +100