The NFL season kicked off last night with the Steelers winning 13-10 and the Titans covering. Tennessee has too good of a defense to be getting 7 points. I will be betting on football games, both college and NFL, but both are really tough to bet on early in the season. I will be betting more on NFL. I am working on a statistical probability system for the NFL, and if it ends up working I won’t be using it until midway through the season. I will still be betting on games before that, just not with my system. I am attempting to find a correlation between certain team stats, winning percentage, and margin of victory.
Over the past few years I have picked NFL games over a 50% clip. Two years ago I was around 65% for the season and hit 16 games in a row over a 4 week span. The probability of hitting 16 games in a row is 1 in 65536. Also, a tip for you bettors, stay away from parlays.
Portfolio: $1036 (12.5% return)
S&P 500: $1044 (13.4% return)
Today’s Games
Kansas City (-140) @ Cleveland (+120)
In the only game today Zack Greinke is matched up against Justin Masterson. Grienke is the leading American League CY Young candidate and has been on top of his game lately. He has not allowed a run in his last 2 starts, a span of 17 innings. His indicators tell me it’s legit. Masterson has struggled with his control since being traded to the Indians. He is a heavy ground ball pitcher to strikes out his fair share, so he has the potential to be pretty good. He just has to improve his control. I like the Royals as Greinke carved up the Indians in his last start, striking out 15, and they are playing well as they are coming off a 3 game sweep of the division leading Tigers.
Bet
$42 KC -140
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