Kansas City Wins In 12

It looks like I got a little lucky in winning $30, but Greinke should have easily picked up the win considering how dominant he was. He only allowed 4 hits in 7 innings while striking out 6 and walking none. Masterson on the other hand was getting out of trouble all night, allowing 8 base runners in 6 innings. He had some key double plays and that is why it is an advantage to be a ground ball pitcher. If he could just learn how to throw more strikes he will be pretty good. The same goes for Fausto Carmona.

Portfolio: $1066 (15.7% return)

S&P 500: $1043 (13.2% return)

Today’s Games

Baltimore (+260) @ New York Yankees (-320)

In the only game today the Orioles top prospect Brian Matusz is matched up against A.J. Burnett. Matusz has a 5.26 ERA in his brief time in the majors, but has shown promise as of late. Over his last 3 starts his indicators are really strong. He’s strikes out a decent amount while being stingy on the free pass. After allowing a ton of hits in his first few starts, it looks like that is normalized now. He is also left handed and facing the Yankees for the first time. Burnett has not pitched up to expectations and has struggled recently, except for his last start. His K’s are there, but he is walking way too many and his ground ball rate is the lowest of his career and that has lead to giving up the long ball. He has the stuff to go out and dominate on any given start, but I actually think Matusz will hold his own facing the Yankees for the first time. The forecast calls for rain so anything can happen pitching wise, but at +260 I think this is a great value play.

Bet

$10 Bal +260

No Action Yesterday

Portfolio: $1024 (11.2% return)
S&P 500: $998 (8.4% return)

Today’s Games

New York Yankees (-240) @ Baltimore (+200)

In the only game I like today CC Sabathia is matched up against Jason Berken. Sabathia is pitching as well as anyone in the game right now, and I look for it to continue. His K rate is elevated and his BB rate is depressed at about the same rate as the last 2 years when we won a CY Young and was a contender for one in less than a half season at Milwaukee. When he gets in the groove he tends to stay there until there is pressure and that’s when he loses his control. He has been a horrible big game pitcher over his career. This game has almost no pressure so his dominance should continue. The youngster Berken does not strikeout too many and gives up a decent amount of hits, so that tells me he’s doesn’t have dominant stuff. The Yankees should have no problem crossing the plate multiple times off him.

The lines are not looking too favorable right now. The favorites are favored by too much and the underdogs are usually youngsters with not a lot of history. I expect this to be the case the rest of the season, so I will be patient and wait for solid favorites or good value underdogs.

Bets

$48 NYY -240

Good Night Last Night

I won both games to bring my portfolio up $40 while the S&P 500 basically stood still.

Portfolio: $1017 (10.4% return)
S&P 500: $987 (7.2% return)

Today's Games

Boston (-180) @ Baltimore (+160)

The first game has Josh Beckett matched up against David Hernandez. The Red Sox ace is having a good season at 12-4 with a 3.44 ERA. He has increased his ground ball rate this year and that has lowered his hit rate. All other numbers are right where they should be. Hernandez does not impress me so far. He's an extreme fly ball pitcher who doesn't strikeout many, but he has decent control. I do not see the Red Sox struggling to score runs against Hernandez and believe -180 is a good play.

Bets

$36 BOS -180