Dodgers and Royals Win Easily

Both games went just as I predicted and my portfolio gained $40.

Portfolio: $1177 (27.8% return)
S&P 500: $1072 (16.4% return)

Today’s Games

Philadelphia (-170) @ Florida (+150)
Boston (-200) @ Kansas City (+170)

In the first game Cole Hamels is matched up against Rick VandenHurk. After struggling for most of the year by his standards, Cole Hamels has found his groove as of late. During his struggles he was the victim of bad luck as his hit rate was high for no reason, but that has turned around recently. His indicators are really strong over his last 4 starts in which he has gone 3-1 with an 1.82 ERA and all signs point to him keeping it up. VandenHurk has also pitched well lately and has decent stuff, but gives out the free pass a little too frequently. He is also a fly ball pitcher which does not bode well when facing the Phillies. He has kept the ball in the park in his last 3 starts, but I do not see him keeping that up. I like the Phillies with their ace in postseason form to take this one.

In the second game Josh Beckett is matched up against Luke Hochevar. Beckett has had an up and down season, but he’s currently on the up part and looks to be gearing up for the playoffs. His indicators are strong and his homerun woes are behind him so I look for him to continue to deal. Hochevar is inconsistent but he’s coming off a complete game, 3 hit shutout. He has the potential to be a solid number 3 and possibly number 2 starter, but you never know what you’re going to get from him start to start. His indicators tell me that his ERA should be lower than 5.79. He has had 4 really good starts this year but has laid an egg in the following start 3 times. I look for Beckett to dominate a weak lineup and Hochevar to lay another egg after a solid performance.

Bets

$34 PHI -170
$40 BOS -200

Yankees Lose, Cardinals Win - Up $5

It's always good when you split and gain money.

Portfolio: $1093 (18.7% return)

S&P 500: $1026 (11.4% return)

Today's Games

Florida (+120) @ Atlanta (-130)

San Francisco (+100) @ Colorado (-110)

New York Yankees (+110) @ Boston (-120)

In the first game Ricky Nolasco is matched up against Derek Lowe. Nolasco struggled early in the year, was sent down to the minors for a few starts, and has been pretty good ever since he was called up. He was roughed up 2 starts ago, but has been dominant other than that over the last 2 months. His strikeout and walk rates are ace caliber, so it's really no surprise that he's turned it around. Lowe on the the other hand got off to a good start, but has struggled the last few months. It looks like his skills are deteriorating as his strikeouts have dropped, his walks have increased, and his ground ball rate has dropped which has led to a higher hit rate. He is 36 years old so he might never get his stuff back again. I look for the underdog Marlins with their potential dominant starter to take the rubber game of this big series.

In the second game Tim Lincecum is matched up against Ubaldo Jimenez. Lincecum is one of the best pitchers in baseball, but didn't look to impressive in his last start against the lowly Reds. Jimenez is turning into the Rockies ace and has been lights out as of late, going 3-0 with a 1.19 ERA over his last 3. His dominance should not continue as his walk rate is up and his hit rate is down. I look for Lincecum to bounce back and win the rubber game of this huge series.

In the third game CC Sabathia is going up against Josh Beckett in a rematch of the 2007 ALCS game 5. Sabathia has been in Cy Young form as of late and his indicators reflect that. Beckett was roughed up his last start and has been giving up the long ball lately, which is not good when facing the Yankees. After two uneven games, I looks for the Yankees and the red hot Sabathia to take this rubber game.

Bets

$20 FLA +120

$30 SF +100

$20 NYY +110

Smoltz Gets Rocked Again, Red Sox Lose

Wow, John Smoltz continued his streak of bad pitching and I'm starting to wonder if he really has lost it. Good thing I only bet $10.

Portfolio: $987 (7.2% return)

S&P 500: $997 (8.3% return)

Today's Games

Boston (+110) @ New York Yankees (-120)

Chicago Cubs (+130) @ Colorado (-140)

Cincinnati (+260) @ San Francisco (-320)

In the first game Josh Beckett is matched up against A.J. Burnett. Beckett is having a solid season and his indicators are right on his career averages. He is a top 10 pitcher and one thing he has improved this year is his ground ball rate which has brought his hit rate and home runs down. Burnett is having an average season for him by going 10-5 with a 3.89 ERA although it looks like his skills aren't all the way there. His strikeouts are down, walks are up, and his ground ball rate is at it's lowest in 8 years which has lead to more home runs. I look for him to struggle against a patient Boston offense that has lit him up twice this year.

In the second game Carlos Zambrano is matched up against Ubaldo Jimenez. You can see my analysis on Zambrano from 7/27 as not much has changed. Jimenez is a solid ground ball pitcher who strikes out 8.02 per nine. He has really cut down on his walks this year, going to 3.38 BB/9 from 4.67 BB/9 last year. He is even better in his last 4 starts only giving up 2.57 BB/9 and that's largely why he's 2-0 over that span. Basically he has such good stuff that if he can find his control he has a pretty good chance of winning, and since he has had good control recently I like Colorado at -140.

In the third game Homer Bailey is matched up against Tim Lincecum. Bailey was once a top prospect but has failed to show anything in the big leagues. He has not struck out many and walks too many and he is also a slight fly ball pitcher. Lincecum is the best pitcher in baseball and has pitched better at home than on the road. Add in the fact that the Reds have one of the worst offenses and this should be a piece of cake for the Giants. I never like to bet games that are this heavily favored since there is too much risk, but this is almost automatic and I need to keep up with the S&P 500.

Bets

$20 BOS +110

$28 COL -140

$32 SF -320

Good Night Last Night

I won both games to bring my portfolio up $40 while the S&P 500 basically stood still.

Portfolio: $1017 (10.4% return)
S&P 500: $987 (7.2% return)

Today's Games

Boston (-180) @ Baltimore (+160)

The first game has Josh Beckett matched up against David Hernandez. The Red Sox ace is having a good season at 12-4 with a 3.44 ERA. He has increased his ground ball rate this year and that has lowered his hit rate. All other numbers are right where they should be. Hernandez does not impress me so far. He's an extreme fly ball pitcher who doesn't strikeout many, but he has decent control. I do not see the Red Sox struggling to score runs against Hernandez and believe -180 is a good play.

Bets

$36 BOS -180

Dropped Both

It’s never good when you go 0-fer. The S&P 500 also made a little gain to top off a bad night.

Portfolio: $1007 (9.3% return)
S&P 500: $951 (3.3% return)

Today’s Game

Boston (-160) @ Texas (+140)

In today’s game Josh Beckett is matched up against Tommy Hunter. Beckett is having a solid season with an 11-3 record and a 3.35 ERA. He has started to get more ground balls and his hit rate has dropped because of that. He struggled with more walks than normal earlier this year, but has since corrected that and it is not a concern. He’s been on top of his game lately and I look for him to pitch well after his team lost yesterday. Hunter is a young pitcher making his 8th career start. He had a solid but not spectacular minor league career, showing good control. He strikeout rates were average and it doesn’t look like he’s either a heavy ground ball or fly ball pitcher. Either way, the veteran Red Sox lineup will make him work and this should be an easy win for the Sox with their ace on the mound.

Bets

$32 BOS -160