Phillies Lose - Down $20

Cole Hamels once again struggled and the Yankees did not look tight after A-Rod got that lucky homerun call. It should be a good game tonight. There are no NFL games that I like today. Except for Houston all of the favaorties are at home and most of the lines are high.

Portfolio: $895 (-2.8% return)
S&P 500: $1036 (12.5% return)

Today's Games

New York Yankees (-170) @ Philadelphia (+160)

In Game 4 of the World Series CC Sabathia is matched up against Joe Blanton. As you can see, the analysis for end of the season and postseason games is different than regular season games. End of the season and postseason games have was more human element involved and therefore are harder to predict. It's kind of like football. So in this game I believe CC will lay an egg and that is why I like the Phillies.

Bets

$20 PHI +160

No Action Yesterday

Portfolio: $915 (-0.7% return)
S&P 500: $1036 (12.5% return)

Today's Games

New York Yankees (-120) @ Philadelphia (+110)

In Game 3 of the World Series Andy Pettitte is matched up against Cole Hamels. Pettitte has pitched well this postseason and wrapped up the ALCS against the Angels last week. Hamels has continued to struggle as he is giving up a higher than normal amount of hits. The Phillies have been really tough at home the last 2 postseasons and the Yankees still look like they are playing tighter than normal. I like the Phillies to take Game 3 at home as I think they are the better all around team and have more confidence.

Bets

$20 PHI +110

Phillies Win - Up $45

Cliff Lee dominated just like he has all postseason and CC finally looked like his old choking self. He did not look sharp at all and he should have given up more runs as he was consistently missing locations and pitching from behind the whole game. I think the Yankees are in some trouble as they looked tight last night and will most likely be that way again tonight.

Portfolio: $945 (2.6% return)
S&P 500: $1043 (13.2% return)

Today's Games

Philadelphia (+180) @ New York Yankees (-200)

In Game 2 of the World Series Pedro Martinez is matched up against AJ Burnett. Both pitchers have been average this postseason with Pedro being a little better. Burnett has good stuff but continues to struggle with control. Pedro has a little left in the tank and his control is still way above average. The Phillies look like they are playing loose and they generally beat up pitchers who can't locate their pitches. I am sticking by my theory that the Yankees seem to be happy just to make the World Series and seem to have no energy left. Combine that with the fact that they looked really tight and I see the Phillies winning easily tonight.

Bets

$30 PHI +180

No Action Yesterday

I was glad to see the NBA season start. I will very rarely bet on NBA games, but I will follow it. This season is going to be one of the better one's in recent history. The NBA is back to having a good product.

Portfolio: $900 (-2.3% return)
S&P 500: $1063 (15.4% return)

Today's Games

Philadelphia (+150) @ New York Yankees (-170)

In Game 1 of the World Series Cliff Lee is matched up against CC Sabathia in what should be a great matchup between two former Indians and CY Young winners. Cliff Lee has been dominant this postseason but has been helped out by a low hit rate. His other indicators are solid. Sabathia has also been dominant and his indicators look solid, but I am still sticking by my theory that he will choke. I also feel like the Yankees are just happy to get to the World Series and gave everything they got to get here. I think the Phillies expected to get here. I would not be surprised to see the Phillies take the Series in 5. I think the Phillies are a great bet tonight at +150.

Bets

$30 PHI +150

No Action Yesterday

Portfolio: $943 (2.4% return)

S&P 500: $1080 (17.3% return)

Today's Games

Los Angeles Angels (+170) @ New York Yankees (-190)

In Game 6 of the ALCS Joe Saunders is matched up against Andy Pettitte in what should be a great game. Saunders pitched well against the Yankees earlier in the series while Pettitte labored a little. The Angels have been making uncharacteristic mistakes and are having problems scoring runs. The Yankees have been playing loose and seem to be having fun. This game will be a little different and I would not be surprised to see the Yankees a little tighter than normal. I think the Yankees have just a slightly better chance to win, but with the current odds I believe the Angels are a good play.

Bets

$10 LAA +170

No Action Yesterday

Portfolio: $934 (1.4% return)
S&P 500: $1097 (19.1% return)

Today’s Games

Los Angeles Angels (+150) @ New York Yankees (-170)

After a quiet week I finally see a game I like. John Lackey is matched up against CC Sabathia in Game 1 of the ALCS. Lackey struggled down the stretch of the regular season but pitched great against the Red Sox in the ALDS. His strikeouts and walks were down at the end of the season and in his start against the Red Sox. The strikeouts being down worries me a little but less walks are a good sign. He is a big game pitcher who has had success in the postseason throughout his career. He definitely will not go out and lay an egg. Sabathia was dominant down the stretch of the regular season and dominated the Twins in the ALDS. Believe it or not that was his first dominant postseason start of his career. Being an Indians fan I have seen him pitch most of his career and I can tell you that he is not a big game pitcher. Even in the regular season if there was a big game he wouldn’t deliver. I was actually not that upset when the Indians traded him last year because I knew he has never won the big game and I did not see him turning it around. In all of his previous postseason starts he clams up and loses his control. In 2007 he walked 37 batters in 241 innings, but in the postseason that year he walked 13 in 15 1/3 innings. The Indians probably would have won the World Series that year if CC was somewhat decent. The Angels have a veteran lineup that is aware of CC’s postseason struggles and will make him work. If CC believes this is a big game then he will struggle. I think the Angels at +150 are a great value play. I’m betting my maximum amount of $40, or 4.3%.

Bets

$40 LAA +150

No Action Yesterday

Portfolio: $1163 (26.3% return)
S&P 500: $1051 (14.1% return)

Today’s Games

Boston (-130) @ New York Yankees (+110)
New York Mets (+160) @ Florida (-180)

In the first game Jon Lester is matched up against Joba Chamberlain. Lester has turned into the best left handed starter in the American League and has really strong indicators. He has been pitching well lately and he has had success against the Yankees this year, so I expect he should put up another solid performance as he’s gearing up for the postseason. Chamberlain has been on an innings/pitch count limit this month and has really struggled during that span. He is 0-2 with an 8.31 ERA in his last 4 starts and that’s mainly due to lack of command. I like the Red Sox in this one as the Yankees will be dipping into the bullpen early while Lester should give the Sox at least 6 solid innings.

In the second game Tim Redding is matched up against Ricky Nolasco. Redding is a below average pitcher who will not strikeout many, walks a little too many, and gives up the long ball too much. Although he has a 3.00 ERA over his last 3 starts, I do not expect him to keep it up as his indicators are weak and he is benefitting from a low hit rate. Florida has also has their way with him this year as he has gone 1-2 with an 8.04 ERA in 3 starts. Nolasco is an inconsistent pitcher who has really good stuff. Although he has a 5.55 ERA over his last 4 starts, his indicators are top notch. Over that span his K/9 rate is 9.25 while his BB/9 rate is 1.48. Those are actually not far off from his season averages and with those indicators he should be in the CY Young talks, but instead he is 12-9 with a 5.34 ERA. I’ll take the guy with the good stuff against a weak lineup.

Bets

$39 BOS -130
$36 FLA -180

Kansas City Wins In 12

It looks like I got a little lucky in winning $30, but Greinke should have easily picked up the win considering how dominant he was. He only allowed 4 hits in 7 innings while striking out 6 and walking none. Masterson on the other hand was getting out of trouble all night, allowing 8 base runners in 6 innings. He had some key double plays and that is why it is an advantage to be a ground ball pitcher. If he could just learn how to throw more strikes he will be pretty good. The same goes for Fausto Carmona.

Portfolio: $1066 (15.7% return)

S&P 500: $1043 (13.2% return)

Today’s Games

Baltimore (+260) @ New York Yankees (-320)

In the only game today the Orioles top prospect Brian Matusz is matched up against A.J. Burnett. Matusz has a 5.26 ERA in his brief time in the majors, but has shown promise as of late. Over his last 3 starts his indicators are really strong. He’s strikes out a decent amount while being stingy on the free pass. After allowing a ton of hits in his first few starts, it looks like that is normalized now. He is also left handed and facing the Yankees for the first time. Burnett has not pitched up to expectations and has struggled recently, except for his last start. His K’s are there, but he is walking way too many and his ground ball rate is the lowest of his career and that has lead to giving up the long ball. He has the stuff to go out and dominate on any given start, but I actually think Matusz will hold his own facing the Yankees for the first time. The forecast calls for rain so anything can happen pitching wise, but at +260 I think this is a great value play.

Bet

$10 Bal +260

No Action Yesterday

Portfolio: $1024 (11.2% return)
S&P 500: $998 (8.4% return)

Today’s Games

New York Yankees (-240) @ Baltimore (+200)

In the only game I like today CC Sabathia is matched up against Jason Berken. Sabathia is pitching as well as anyone in the game right now, and I look for it to continue. His K rate is elevated and his BB rate is depressed at about the same rate as the last 2 years when we won a CY Young and was a contender for one in less than a half season at Milwaukee. When he gets in the groove he tends to stay there until there is pressure and that’s when he loses his control. He has been a horrible big game pitcher over his career. This game has almost no pressure so his dominance should continue. The youngster Berken does not strikeout too many and gives up a decent amount of hits, so that tells me he’s doesn’t have dominant stuff. The Yankees should have no problem crossing the plate multiple times off him.

The lines are not looking too favorable right now. The favorites are favored by too much and the underdogs are usually youngsters with not a lot of history. I expect this to be the case the rest of the season, so I will be patient and wait for solid favorites or good value underdogs.

Bets

$48 NYY -240

No Action Yesterday

Portfolio: $1037 (12.6% return)
S&P 500: $1031 (11.9% return)

Today’s Games

Chicago White Sox (+200) @ New York Yankees (-240)
Washington (+170) @ St. Louis (-190)
Colorado (+110) @ San Francisco (-130)

In the first game Mark Buehrle is matched up against CC Sabathia. Buehrle has struggled ever since his perfect game and has been getting hit hard lately while his K’s have dropped. Sabathia has won his last 4 starts and is in CY Young form. His pinpoint control and increased K rate are the main drivers behind that. When he can throw all three of his pitches for strikes it’s really hard to score runs off him. I look for the Yankees and CC to cruise in this one.

In the second game John Lannan is matched up against John Smoltz. Lannan has been getting absolutely tagged lately as his ERA is 12.00 over his last 3 starts, not good news facing the Cardinals. Smoltz is coming off his only decent start this year, and should have the confidence he lacked earlier in the season with the Red Sox. I’ve been saying all along that he still has some left in the tank, and if you type in “Smoltz” in the search on the top left corner of the page you can see my past analysis of him. His K and BB rates are right in line with his last 2 healthy seasons. I like the Cardinals to win easily.

In the third game Ubaldo Jimenez is matched up against Tim Lincecum for the second time in 5 days. Jimenez pitched great and Lincecum pitched below his standards and the Rockies won 4-2. Jimenez is on top of his game right now, but I find it hard to believe that Lincecum won’t be up for the challenge to get even. Lincecum has struggled with control his last 2 starts, so if he can get that fixed, which I think he will, he should be in a position to dominate. This is a true test for both starters in another huge series, and Lincecum will come out on top this time.

Bets

$24 NYY -240
$19 STL -190
$26 SF -130

Yankees Lose, Cardinals Win - Up $5

It's always good when you split and gain money.

Portfolio: $1093 (18.7% return)

S&P 500: $1026 (11.4% return)

Today's Games

Florida (+120) @ Atlanta (-130)

San Francisco (+100) @ Colorado (-110)

New York Yankees (+110) @ Boston (-120)

In the first game Ricky Nolasco is matched up against Derek Lowe. Nolasco struggled early in the year, was sent down to the minors for a few starts, and has been pretty good ever since he was called up. He was roughed up 2 starts ago, but has been dominant other than that over the last 2 months. His strikeout and walk rates are ace caliber, so it's really no surprise that he's turned it around. Lowe on the the other hand got off to a good start, but has struggled the last few months. It looks like his skills are deteriorating as his strikeouts have dropped, his walks have increased, and his ground ball rate has dropped which has led to a higher hit rate. He is 36 years old so he might never get his stuff back again. I look for the underdog Marlins with their potential dominant starter to take the rubber game of this big series.

In the second game Tim Lincecum is matched up against Ubaldo Jimenez. Lincecum is one of the best pitchers in baseball, but didn't look to impressive in his last start against the lowly Reds. Jimenez is turning into the Rockies ace and has been lights out as of late, going 3-0 with a 1.19 ERA over his last 3. His dominance should not continue as his walk rate is up and his hit rate is down. I look for Lincecum to bounce back and win the rubber game of this huge series.

In the third game CC Sabathia is going up against Josh Beckett in a rematch of the 2007 ALCS game 5. Sabathia has been in Cy Young form as of late and his indicators reflect that. Beckett was roughed up his last start and has been giving up the long ball lately, which is not good when facing the Yankees. After two uneven games, I looks for the Yankees and the red hot Sabathia to take this rubber game.

Bets

$20 FLA +120

$30 SF +100

$20 NYY +110

Giants Take Care Of Business

That was a pretty easy $32 last night as Aaron Cook's recent struggles continued. He left with a sore shoulder after only 47 pitches, so that could be part of the reason for his struggles. Sanchez on the other hand pitched normal by his standards. He was wild, struck out 8 and left after only 5 innings due to pitch count. If he can learn to throw more strikes before the seasons end and the Giants make the playoffs their pitching will be unstoppable.

Portfolio: $1088 (18.1% return)

S&P 500: $1026 (11.4% return)

For those of you not aware, when I started my blog a couple months ago the S&P 500 was at 921, so that's what my porfolio's starting value was. As you can see, I am getting a 6.7% higher return on my money than the S&P 500 since the start of my simulation.

Today's Games

New York Yankees (-150) @ Boston (+140)

St. Louis (-210) @ San Diego (+190)

In the first game I like today the hard throwing A.J. Burnett is matched up against the rookie Junichi Tazawa. Burnett is having a decent season, although the Yankees thought they were getting a little more when they signed him this off season. His strikeouts have dropped and his walks have increased this year. He's been getting the K's lately but he is still allowing too many walks. He has had a good history against the Red Sox and was dominant in his last start against them a few weeks back. Tazawa is a contact pitcher who is making his 3rd career start and has yet to make it past the 5th inning. His stuff isn't anything special and the Yankees should have no problem scoring runs and extending their division lead this afternoon.

In the second game Chris Carpenter is matched up against Kevin Correia. Carpenter is a top CY Young candidate who has been on top of his game lately. Corriea has been solid in his last 4 starts going 1-1 with a 2.22 ERA, but that shouldn't last. Over that time his strikeouts have dropped while his walks have increased, and he's been the beneficiary of a low hit rate. His K/BB ratio over that time is around 1, and that tells me his ERA is due for a spike. That's good news for Carpenter as the Cardinals should score enough runs for him to pick up another win and build his case for the CY Young.

Bets

$15 NYY -150

$42 STL -210

Rockies Lose 7-0

The Rockies lost as J.A. Happ threw his first complete game shoutout of his career. The S&P 500 also took the lead on my portfolio.

Portfolio: $997 (8.3% return)
S&P 500: $1003 (8.9% return)

Today's Game

Boston (+190) @ New York Yankees (-210)

In the only game I like today John Smoltz is matched up against Joba Chamberlain. Smoltz has struggled this year and you can see my analysis on him from 7-31. Not much has changed and he should start to turn things around. Chamberlain started off slow but has been pitching great lately, going 3-0 with a 0.83 ERA in his last 3 starts. It looks like he has found his groove as his strikeout and walk rates are better than earlier in the year. But looking at his low hit rate of 3.3 over his last 3 starts it's pretty much a sure thing that he cannot keep up his recent dominance. Throw that in with the fact that the Red Sox have won all 8 games against the Yankees this year and are upset after getting swept in a short 2 game series against the Rays that put them 2.5 games back and you have a pretty good play at +190 with a proven big game pitcher.

Bet

$10 BOS +190