No Action Yesterday

Portfolio: $1163 (26.3% return)
S&P 500: $1051 (14.1% return)

Today’s Games

Boston (-130) @ New York Yankees (+110)
New York Mets (+160) @ Florida (-180)

In the first game Jon Lester is matched up against Joba Chamberlain. Lester has turned into the best left handed starter in the American League and has really strong indicators. He has been pitching well lately and he has had success against the Yankees this year, so I expect he should put up another solid performance as he’s gearing up for the postseason. Chamberlain has been on an innings/pitch count limit this month and has really struggled during that span. He is 0-2 with an 8.31 ERA in his last 4 starts and that’s mainly due to lack of command. I like the Red Sox in this one as the Yankees will be dipping into the bullpen early while Lester should give the Sox at least 6 solid innings.

In the second game Tim Redding is matched up against Ricky Nolasco. Redding is a below average pitcher who will not strikeout many, walks a little too many, and gives up the long ball too much. Although he has a 3.00 ERA over his last 3 starts, I do not expect him to keep it up as his indicators are weak and he is benefitting from a low hit rate. Florida has also has their way with him this year as he has gone 1-2 with an 8.04 ERA in 3 starts. Nolasco is an inconsistent pitcher who has really good stuff. Although he has a 5.55 ERA over his last 4 starts, his indicators are top notch. Over that span his K/9 rate is 9.25 while his BB/9 rate is 1.48. Those are actually not far off from his season averages and with those indicators he should be in the CY Young talks, but instead he is 12-9 with a 5.34 ERA. I’ll take the guy with the good stuff against a weak lineup.

Bets

$39 BOS -130
$36 FLA -180

Rockies Lose 7-0

The Rockies lost as J.A. Happ threw his first complete game shoutout of his career. The S&P 500 also took the lead on my portfolio.

Portfolio: $997 (8.3% return)
S&P 500: $1003 (8.9% return)

Today's Game

Boston (+190) @ New York Yankees (-210)

In the only game I like today John Smoltz is matched up against Joba Chamberlain. Smoltz has struggled this year and you can see my analysis on him from 7-31. Not much has changed and he should start to turn things around. Chamberlain started off slow but has been pitching great lately, going 3-0 with a 0.83 ERA in his last 3 starts. It looks like he has found his groove as his strikeout and walk rates are better than earlier in the year. But looking at his low hit rate of 3.3 over his last 3 starts it's pretty much a sure thing that he cannot keep up his recent dominance. Throw that in with the fact that the Red Sox have won all 8 games against the Yankees this year and are upset after getting swept in a short 2 game series against the Rays that put them 2.5 games back and you have a pretty good play at +190 with a proven big game pitcher.

Bet

$10 BOS +190