Portfolio: $1163 (26.3% return)
S&P 500: $1051 (14.1% return)
Today’s Games
Boston (-130) @ New York Yankees (+110)
New York Mets (+160) @ Florida (-180)
In the first game Jon Lester is matched up against Joba Chamberlain. Lester has turned into the best left handed starter in the American League and has really strong indicators. He has been pitching well lately and he has had success against the Yankees this year, so I expect he should put up another solid performance as he’s gearing up for the postseason. Chamberlain has been on an innings/pitch count limit this month and has really struggled during that span. He is 0-2 with an 8.31 ERA in his last 4 starts and that’s mainly due to lack of command. I like the Red Sox in this one as the Yankees will be dipping into the bullpen early while Lester should give the Sox at least 6 solid innings.
In the second game Tim Redding is matched up against Ricky Nolasco. Redding is a below average pitcher who will not strikeout many, walks a little too many, and gives up the long ball too much. Although he has a 3.00 ERA over his last 3 starts, I do not expect him to keep it up as his indicators are weak and he is benefitting from a low hit rate. Florida has also has their way with him this year as he has gone 1-2 with an 8.04 ERA in 3 starts. Nolasco is an inconsistent pitcher who has really good stuff. Although he has a 5.55 ERA over his last 4 starts, his indicators are top notch. Over that span his K/9 rate is 9.25 while his BB/9 rate is 1.48. Those are actually not far off from his season averages and with those indicators he should be in the CY Young talks, but instead he is 12-9 with a 5.34 ERA. I’ll take the guy with the good stuff against a weak lineup.
Bets
$39 BOS -130
$36 FLA -180
Showing posts with label florida marlins. Show all posts
Showing posts with label florida marlins. Show all posts
Friday, September 25, 2009
Wednesday, September 9, 2009
Back To Normal Life
After being away from everything for 5 days I am now back on a normal schedule.
Portfolio: $1016 (10.3% return)
S&P 500: $1025 (11.3% return)
Today’s Games
St. Louis (-200) @ Milwaukee (+170)
Florida (-140) @ New York Mets (+120)
In the first game Adam Wainwright is matched up against Jeff Suppan. Wainwright is in the talks for the NL CY Young, but was roughed up by Pittsburgh is his last start although he did pick up the win. This doesn’t seem to be anything to worry about and he should bounce back against the Brewers, a team who he has dominated this year. Suppan is 1-0 with a 2.81 ERA in his last 3 starts, but he shouldn’t be able to keep that up. His K’s are way down and his BB’s are uncharacteristically high and that explains his 1.94 WHIP over that span. He might be pitching with a dead arm or slightly hurt, and that does not bode well against the division leading Cardinals.
In the second game Ricky Nolasco is matched up against Pat Misch. Nolasco has been pretty solid in the second half of the season and his K and BB rates are ace caliber. He has suffered from a low strand rate lately so his ERA of 4.38 over his last 4 starts should probably be lower. Misch is making only his third start this year after appearing in 19 games out of the pen. He won’t miss a lot of bats, walk too many, or get a lot of ground balls, but he is left handed. Nolasco should have a decent outing against a light hitting Mets team as the Marlins need to pick it up if they want to play into October.
Bets
$20 STL -200
$14 FLA -140
I’ll ease into action after being away.
Portfolio: $1016 (10.3% return)
S&P 500: $1025 (11.3% return)
Today’s Games
St. Louis (-200) @ Milwaukee (+170)
Florida (-140) @ New York Mets (+120)
In the first game Adam Wainwright is matched up against Jeff Suppan. Wainwright is in the talks for the NL CY Young, but was roughed up by Pittsburgh is his last start although he did pick up the win. This doesn’t seem to be anything to worry about and he should bounce back against the Brewers, a team who he has dominated this year. Suppan is 1-0 with a 2.81 ERA in his last 3 starts, but he shouldn’t be able to keep that up. His K’s are way down and his BB’s are uncharacteristically high and that explains his 1.94 WHIP over that span. He might be pitching with a dead arm or slightly hurt, and that does not bode well against the division leading Cardinals.
In the second game Ricky Nolasco is matched up against Pat Misch. Nolasco has been pretty solid in the second half of the season and his K and BB rates are ace caliber. He has suffered from a low strand rate lately so his ERA of 4.38 over his last 4 starts should probably be lower. Misch is making only his third start this year after appearing in 19 games out of the pen. He won’t miss a lot of bats, walk too many, or get a lot of ground balls, but he is left handed. Nolasco should have a decent outing against a light hitting Mets team as the Marlins need to pick it up if they want to play into October.
Bets
$20 STL -200
$14 FLA -140
I’ll ease into action after being away.
Sunday, August 23, 2009
Yankees Lose, Cardinals Win - Up $5
It's always good when you split and gain money.
Portfolio: $1093 (18.7% return)
S&P 500: $1026 (11.4% return)
Today's Games
Florida (+120) @ Atlanta (-130)
San Francisco (+100) @ Colorado (-110)
New York Yankees (+110) @ Boston (-120)
In the first game Ricky Nolasco is matched up against Derek Lowe. Nolasco struggled early in the year, was sent down to the minors for a few starts, and has been pretty good ever since he was called up. He was roughed up 2 starts ago, but has been dominant other than that over the last 2 months. His strikeout and walk rates are ace caliber, so it's really no surprise that he's turned it around. Lowe on the the other hand got off to a good start, but has struggled the last few months. It looks like his skills are deteriorating as his strikeouts have dropped, his walks have increased, and his ground ball rate has dropped which has led to a higher hit rate. He is 36 years old so he might never get his stuff back again. I look for the underdog Marlins with their potential dominant starter to take the rubber game of this big series.
In the second game Tim Lincecum is matched up against Ubaldo Jimenez. Lincecum is one of the best pitchers in baseball, but didn't look to impressive in his last start against the lowly Reds. Jimenez is turning into the Rockies ace and has been lights out as of late, going 3-0 with a 1.19 ERA over his last 3. His dominance should not continue as his walk rate is up and his hit rate is down. I look for Lincecum to bounce back and win the rubber game of this huge series.
In the third game CC Sabathia is going up against Josh Beckett in a rematch of the 2007 ALCS game 5. Sabathia has been in Cy Young form as of late and his indicators reflect that. Beckett was roughed up his last start and has been giving up the long ball lately, which is not good when facing the Yankees. After two uneven games, I looks for the Yankees and the red hot Sabathia to take this rubber game.
Bets
$20 FLA +120
$30 SF +100
$20 NYY +110
Thursday, August 20, 2009
Cardinals Win
The Cardinals took the 3 game series against the Dodgers in what was a great series if anyone stayed up to watch. This could very well be a playoff matchup if the Dodgers can hold on to the division.
Portfolio: $1059 (15% return)
S&P 500: $996 (8.1% return)
Today’s Games
Arizona (+170) @ Philadelphia (-190)
Florida (-130) @ Houston (+110)
In the first game Doug Davis is matched up against Joe Blanton. Davis has an ERA of 3.59 but it is due to rise as he as stranded a very high percentage of runners, which is mostly luck. He does not strikeout many and walks a little too many to have a mid 3 ERA. The Phillies should not have any problems leaving runners on base against this soft tossing lefty. Blanton is pretty average at 7-6 with a 3.88 ERA. His K/BB ratio of 3.14 is really good, but the long ball is what has hurt him this year. I just think the Phillies will score enough runs that it won’t matter if he gives up a couple bombs.
In the second game Josh Johnson is matched up against Wandy Rodriguez. Johnson is having a great season at 12-2 with a 2.85 ERA, and he’s even better in his last 3 starts going 2-0 with a 2.66 ERA. His stats look pretty legit. His hit rate has been a little low lately, but he has really stepped up his strikeouts and lowered his walks, so that tells me his stuff is there. Rodriguez is having a solid season, but has struggled lately going 1-1 with a 6.60 ERA over his last 3. He’s been giving away a ton of free passes and his strikeouts have declined, so that tells me his stuff is not what is was earlier in the season. I like the Marlins with their Cy Young candidate on the mound to keep pace with the division leading Phillies.
Bets
$19 PHI -190
$13 FLA -130
Portfolio: $1059 (15% return)
S&P 500: $996 (8.1% return)
Today’s Games
Arizona (+170) @ Philadelphia (-190)
Florida (-130) @ Houston (+110)
In the first game Doug Davis is matched up against Joe Blanton. Davis has an ERA of 3.59 but it is due to rise as he as stranded a very high percentage of runners, which is mostly luck. He does not strikeout many and walks a little too many to have a mid 3 ERA. The Phillies should not have any problems leaving runners on base against this soft tossing lefty. Blanton is pretty average at 7-6 with a 3.88 ERA. His K/BB ratio of 3.14 is really good, but the long ball is what has hurt him this year. I just think the Phillies will score enough runs that it won’t matter if he gives up a couple bombs.
In the second game Josh Johnson is matched up against Wandy Rodriguez. Johnson is having a great season at 12-2 with a 2.85 ERA, and he’s even better in his last 3 starts going 2-0 with a 2.66 ERA. His stats look pretty legit. His hit rate has been a little low lately, but he has really stepped up his strikeouts and lowered his walks, so that tells me his stuff is there. Rodriguez is having a solid season, but has struggled lately going 1-1 with a 6.60 ERA over his last 3. He’s been giving away a ton of free passes and his strikeouts have declined, so that tells me his stuff is not what is was earlier in the season. I like the Marlins with their Cy Young candidate on the mound to keep pace with the division leading Phillies.
Bets
$19 PHI -190
$13 FLA -130
Friday, July 24, 2009
S&P 500 Gaining
The S&P 500 gained $22 yesterday to distance itself from my portfolio.
Portfolio: $931 (1.1% return)
S&P 500: $976 (6% return)
Today’s Game
Florida (+140) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-160)
In the game I like today Josh Johnson is matched up against Clayton Kershaw. Johnson is having a great year after missing most of the last two years due to injury. His 8-2 record and 2.74 ERA look legit. He strikes out his fair share at 7.66 K/9 and doesn’t walk too many at 2.46 BB/9. He is also a ground ball pitcher who doesn’t give up the long ball. Kershaw is having a really good season too with an 8-5 record and a 2.95 ERA, but it doesn’t look to stay that way. He strikes out a decent amount at 8.77 K/9, but he walks way too many at 5.06 BB/9. He’s not a ground ball pitcher, but doesn’t give up the long ball. He has really benefitted from an extremely low hit rate, especially in his last 3 starts where he went 3-0 with a 0.47 ERA. He has really good stuff, and his hit rate will tend to be lower than normal because of that and the fact that he is effectively wild, but his 5.91 H/9 rate is unsustainable. Once he learns how to throw more strikes he should be dominant, but he’s not there yet. Both teams are playing well and are coming off sweeps. At +140, I think the Marlins are a good value play with their ace on the mound.
Bets
$20 FLA +140
Portfolio: $931 (1.1% return)
S&P 500: $976 (6% return)
Today’s Game
Florida (+140) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-160)
In the game I like today Josh Johnson is matched up against Clayton Kershaw. Johnson is having a great year after missing most of the last two years due to injury. His 8-2 record and 2.74 ERA look legit. He strikes out his fair share at 7.66 K/9 and doesn’t walk too many at 2.46 BB/9. He is also a ground ball pitcher who doesn’t give up the long ball. Kershaw is having a really good season too with an 8-5 record and a 2.95 ERA, but it doesn’t look to stay that way. He strikes out a decent amount at 8.77 K/9, but he walks way too many at 5.06 BB/9. He’s not a ground ball pitcher, but doesn’t give up the long ball. He has really benefitted from an extremely low hit rate, especially in his last 3 starts where he went 3-0 with a 0.47 ERA. He has really good stuff, and his hit rate will tend to be lower than normal because of that and the fact that he is effectively wild, but his 5.91 H/9 rate is unsustainable. Once he learns how to throw more strikes he should be dominant, but he’s not there yet. Both teams are playing well and are coming off sweeps. At +140, I think the Marlins are a good value play with their ace on the mound.
Bets
$20 FLA +140
Saturday, July 18, 2009
Giants Lose 2-1 in 14
I was right about the Pirates not scoring many runs, but the Giants offense was even worse. Their only run came off a Pittsburgh error. At -150, I still think that was one of the better bets I've seen lately. I'm not sure how many times we'll get better than -150 on Lincecum the rest of the year.
Portfolio: $1031 (11.9% return)
S&P 500: $940 (2.1% return)
Today's Game
Philadelphia (+110) @ Florida (-120)
In the only game I like today Joe Blanton is matched up against Josh Johnson. The strikeout and walk rates of both pitcher's are the basically the same. The main difference between the two is that Johnson has a little better stuff and gets more ground balls. Both have also been pitching well as of late, and their rates look pretty normal. The Phillies have a better offense and defense, and that is why I like them at +110.
Bets
$20 PHI +110
Portfolio: $1031 (11.9% return)
S&P 500: $940 (2.1% return)
Today's Game
Philadelphia (+110) @ Florida (-120)
In the only game I like today Joe Blanton is matched up against Josh Johnson. The strikeout and walk rates of both pitcher's are the basically the same. The main difference between the two is that Johnson has a little better stuff and gets more ground balls. Both have also been pitching well as of late, and their rates look pretty normal. The Phillies have a better offense and defense, and that is why I like them at +110.
Bets
$20 PHI +110
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