Portfolio: $1037 (12.6% return)
S&P 500: $1031 (11.9% return)
Today’s Games
Chicago White Sox (+200) @ New York Yankees (-240)
Washington (+170) @ St. Louis (-190)
Colorado (+110) @ San Francisco (-130)
In the first game Mark Buehrle is matched up against CC Sabathia. Buehrle has struggled ever since his perfect game and has been getting hit hard lately while his K’s have dropped. Sabathia has won his last 4 starts and is in CY Young form. His pinpoint control and increased K rate are the main drivers behind that. When he can throw all three of his pitches for strikes it’s really hard to score runs off him. I look for the Yankees and CC to cruise in this one.
In the second game John Lannan is matched up against John Smoltz. Lannan has been getting absolutely tagged lately as his ERA is 12.00 over his last 3 starts, not good news facing the Cardinals. Smoltz is coming off his only decent start this year, and should have the confidence he lacked earlier in the season with the Red Sox. I’ve been saying all along that he still has some left in the tank, and if you type in “Smoltz” in the search on the top left corner of the page you can see my past analysis of him. His K and BB rates are right in line with his last 2 healthy seasons. I like the Cardinals to win easily.
In the third game Ubaldo Jimenez is matched up against Tim Lincecum for the second time in 5 days. Jimenez pitched great and Lincecum pitched below his standards and the Rockies won 4-2. Jimenez is on top of his game right now, but I find it hard to believe that Lincecum won’t be up for the challenge to get even. Lincecum has struggled with control his last 2 starts, so if he can get that fixed, which I think he will, he should be in a position to dominate. This is a true test for both starters in another huge series, and Lincecum will come out on top this time.
Bets
$24 NYY -240
$19 STL -190
$26 SF -130
Showing posts with label john smoltz. Show all posts
Showing posts with label john smoltz. Show all posts
Friday, August 28, 2009
Thursday, August 6, 2009
Rockies Lose 7-0
The Rockies lost as J.A. Happ threw his first complete game shoutout of his career. The S&P 500 also took the lead on my portfolio.
S&P 500: $1003 (8.9% return)
Today's Game
Boston (+190) @ New York Yankees (-210)
In the only game I like today John Smoltz is matched up against Joba Chamberlain. Smoltz has struggled this year and you can see my analysis on him from 7-31. Not much has changed and he should start to turn things around. Chamberlain started off slow but has been pitching great lately, going 3-0 with a 0.83 ERA in his last 3 starts. It looks like he has found his groove as his strikeout and walk rates are better than earlier in the year. But looking at his low hit rate of 3.3 over his last 3 starts it's pretty much a sure thing that he cannot keep up his recent dominance. Throw that in with the fact that the Red Sox have won all 8 games against the Yankees this year and are upset after getting swept in a short 2 game series against the Rays that put them 2.5 games back and you have a pretty good play at +190 with a proven big game pitcher.
Bet
$10 BOS +190
Friday, July 31, 2009
No Action
I didn’t like any games and the S&P 500 gained a little.
Portfolio: $977 (6.1% return)
S&P 500: $987 (7.2% return)
Today’s Games
Boston (-130) @ Baltimore (+110)
Colorado (-150) @ Cincinnati (+130)
The first game has the veteran John Smoltz matched up against Jeremy Guthrie. Smoltz has gotten off to a rough start with a 1-4 record and 7.04 ERA, but by looking into his numbers I can see things turning around. His strikeouts are still there and so is his control. What has hurt him is his high hit rate, which is 50% higher than his career average. His ground ball rate is down a little so it is expected he will give up more hits, but not this much. I would not be surprised if he strung together some good starts soon. Guthrie has been struggling all year with a 7-9 record and 5.21 ERA. His other numbers don’t look too good either. His strikeouts are slightly down and his walks are slightly up. He also has the lowest ground ball rate in his career and actually has been giving up more fly balls than ground balls this year. This has lead to a higher hit rate and more home runs, not good. I look for Smoltz’s luck to turn around and the Red Sox to pick up the victory.
The second game has Aaron Cook going up against Justin Lehr. Cook is a heavy ground ball pitcher who always keeps his team in the game. He will very rarely go out and dominate, but he will also very rarely get rocked. He has upped his strikeouts by about 1 K/9 from his career average, and his walks and ground balls are right in line with his averages. Lehr hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2006 and isn’t anything special. His minor league numbers won’t make you look twice and the Rockies should have a field day against a pitcher making his first start in 3 years. I also like the fact that Cincinnati’s ballpark is a band box and Colorado can hit with the best of them. The Rockies played a double header and had to travel yesterday, and this is probably the reason why the line is at -150 compared to -200. I’ll take my chances they’ll have enough energy as they are pushing for a playoff spot against the slumping Reds.
Bets
$26 BOS -130
$30 COL -150
Portfolio: $977 (6.1% return)
S&P 500: $987 (7.2% return)
Today’s Games
Boston (-130) @ Baltimore (+110)
Colorado (-150) @ Cincinnati (+130)
The first game has the veteran John Smoltz matched up against Jeremy Guthrie. Smoltz has gotten off to a rough start with a 1-4 record and 7.04 ERA, but by looking into his numbers I can see things turning around. His strikeouts are still there and so is his control. What has hurt him is his high hit rate, which is 50% higher than his career average. His ground ball rate is down a little so it is expected he will give up more hits, but not this much. I would not be surprised if he strung together some good starts soon. Guthrie has been struggling all year with a 7-9 record and 5.21 ERA. His other numbers don’t look too good either. His strikeouts are slightly down and his walks are slightly up. He also has the lowest ground ball rate in his career and actually has been giving up more fly balls than ground balls this year. This has lead to a higher hit rate and more home runs, not good. I look for Smoltz’s luck to turn around and the Red Sox to pick up the victory.
The second game has Aaron Cook going up against Justin Lehr. Cook is a heavy ground ball pitcher who always keeps his team in the game. He will very rarely go out and dominate, but he will also very rarely get rocked. He has upped his strikeouts by about 1 K/9 from his career average, and his walks and ground balls are right in line with his averages. Lehr hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2006 and isn’t anything special. His minor league numbers won’t make you look twice and the Rockies should have a field day against a pitcher making his first start in 3 years. I also like the fact that Cincinnati’s ballpark is a band box and Colorado can hit with the best of them. The Rockies played a double header and had to travel yesterday, and this is probably the reason why the line is at -150 compared to -200. I’ll take my chances they’ll have enough energy as they are pushing for a playoff spot against the slumping Reds.
Bets
$26 BOS -130
$30 COL -150
Monday, July 20, 2009
Giants Finally Win Low Scoring Affair
Matt Cain and Zach Duke both pitched well, but Cain was a little better and the Giants offense finally decided to score a little. I won $20.
Portfolio: $1051 (14.1% return)
S&P 500: $940 (2.1% return)
Today’s Games
San Francisco (+150) @ Atlanta (-170)
Boston (-110) @ Texas (-120)
The first game has Jonathan Sanchez going up against Tommy Hanson. Sanchez is coming off a near perfect game (Uribe error). He strikes out a lot of hitters, 9.04 K/9, but also walks a lot, 5.26 BB/9. He generally doesn’t make it past the 6th inning due to pitch count, but you can see how dominant he can be when he can command his pitches. Hanson is a young prospect who was dominant in the minors. While his 4-0 record and 2.85 ERA make you think he has carried his skills over to the majors, his indicators say otherwise. His strikeout rate is low at 5.49 K/9 and walks are high at 4.39 BB/9. Also, his hit rate of 7.24 H/9 seems a little low given that he’s a minor fly ball pitcher. Over his last 3 starts it looks like he has fixed his control while walking only 5 in 18 innings as his walk rate in the minors was 3.3 BB/9, but the strikeouts haven’t came yet. His major league strikeout rate of 5.5 K/9 is way below his minor league rate of 10.4 K/9. Sanchez’s last start should have given him confidence and I believe it will carry over into tonight’s game. Hanson’s ERA is unsustainable at the rate he is pitching and I hope the Giants offense will give Sanchez enough run support. At +150, I think it’s worth the risk.
The second game has John Smoltz matched up against Kevin Millwood. It looks like Smoltz still has some left as his strikeout, walk, and ground ball rates are all in line with his career averages. His hit rate through his first 4 starts is about 25% higher than the last 5 years, and that has lead to a 5.40 ERA. With all his other indicators being normal, his hit rate should start to regress. Millwood is starting to show signs of wearing down. His strikeouts are down and walks are up, especially in his last 3 starts. He is 0-2 with an 8.83 ERA with 9 strikeouts and 8 walks in 17 1/3 innings. Both offenses and defenses are good, but the Red Sox are a little better at each. I like the Red Sox at -110 and the reason why I think they are not favored by more is doubts about Smoltz, but his indicators tell me he still has it.
Bets
$20 SF +150
$22 BOS -110
Portfolio: $1051 (14.1% return)
S&P 500: $940 (2.1% return)
Today’s Games
San Francisco (+150) @ Atlanta (-170)
Boston (-110) @ Texas (-120)
The first game has Jonathan Sanchez going up against Tommy Hanson. Sanchez is coming off a near perfect game (Uribe error). He strikes out a lot of hitters, 9.04 K/9, but also walks a lot, 5.26 BB/9. He generally doesn’t make it past the 6th inning due to pitch count, but you can see how dominant he can be when he can command his pitches. Hanson is a young prospect who was dominant in the minors. While his 4-0 record and 2.85 ERA make you think he has carried his skills over to the majors, his indicators say otherwise. His strikeout rate is low at 5.49 K/9 and walks are high at 4.39 BB/9. Also, his hit rate of 7.24 H/9 seems a little low given that he’s a minor fly ball pitcher. Over his last 3 starts it looks like he has fixed his control while walking only 5 in 18 innings as his walk rate in the minors was 3.3 BB/9, but the strikeouts haven’t came yet. His major league strikeout rate of 5.5 K/9 is way below his minor league rate of 10.4 K/9. Sanchez’s last start should have given him confidence and I believe it will carry over into tonight’s game. Hanson’s ERA is unsustainable at the rate he is pitching and I hope the Giants offense will give Sanchez enough run support. At +150, I think it’s worth the risk.
The second game has John Smoltz matched up against Kevin Millwood. It looks like Smoltz still has some left as his strikeout, walk, and ground ball rates are all in line with his career averages. His hit rate through his first 4 starts is about 25% higher than the last 5 years, and that has lead to a 5.40 ERA. With all his other indicators being normal, his hit rate should start to regress. Millwood is starting to show signs of wearing down. His strikeouts are down and walks are up, especially in his last 3 starts. He is 0-2 with an 8.83 ERA with 9 strikeouts and 8 walks in 17 1/3 innings. Both offenses and defenses are good, but the Red Sox are a little better at each. I like the Red Sox at -110 and the reason why I think they are not favored by more is doubts about Smoltz, but his indicators tell me he still has it.
Bets
$20 SF +150
$22 BOS -110
Tuesday, June 30, 2009
Lincecum Throws A Gem
The two wins last night bumped my portfolio up $50. Both my portfolio and the S&P 500 were at $921 when I started last week.
Portfolio: $993 (7.8% return)
S&P 500: $927 (0.7% return)
Today's Games
Boston (-130) @ Baltimore (+110)
Minnesota (-140) @ Kansas City (+130)
San Francisco (+190) @ St. Louis (-200)
The first game has John Smoltz matched up against Rich Hill. Smoltz has had one start this year after coming back from injury are didn’t fare too well. He lasted 5 innings, giving up 5 earned runs on 7 hits against the lowly Nationals. 4 of those runs were given up in the first inning, and he really settled down after that. He did manage to strikeout 5 and only walk 1, proving that he still should have good stuff with good control. He was probably just tight and nervous in his first start for the Red Sox, his first game with a team other than the Braves in 20 years. Most of the young Orioles have never seen him before. Rich Hill is off to 3-2 start but with a bad 6.03 ERA. Hill has good stuff and can rack up strikeouts, 8.2 K/9, but can’t seem to control it, 5.79 BB/9. His walk rate is above his career average of 3.86 BB/9, but he’s not showing any signs of improving on that number. This is probably due to injury. The Red Sox offense should knock Hill out by the 6th inning as they have a patient lineup that doesn’t strikeout too much. At -130 the line is just enough to make me like the Red Sox and the veteran Smoltz.
The second game has Scott Baker going up against Brain Bannister. Baker is 5-6 with a 5.17 ERA, but is one of the most underrated pitchers in the game. He’s strikeout rate and walk rate are the best in his career, and his hit rate is normal. His 4.5 K/BB rate is one of the best in the majors. The long ball is what has been hurting him, mainly earlier in the season. He has already given up 17 homeruns in 87 innings compared to 20 in 172 innings last year, and he’s actually giving up fewer fly balls this year. Well in his last 4 starts he is 2-0 with a 3.62 ERA while only allowing 2 homeruns, so he seems to have that under control. And playing the Royals, he should not be too worried about giving up homeruns. Brian Bannister is about as average as they come with a 5-5 record and a 4.17 ERA. He doesn’t strikeout many, 5.45 K/9, doesn’t walk many, 2.9 BB/9, and is not a heavy ground ball pitcher. The better than average Twins offense should score a few off him, and that should be enough for Baker who has a chance to throw a gem tonight.
One more game I like today. Randy Johnson is going up against Chris Carpenter. Johnson is pitching really well as of late, going 4-1 with a 2.57 ERA in his last 7 starts. He still has some left in the tank as his strikeout rate, walk rate, and hit rate all are normal. The Giants have also been playing well as of late. You can see my analysis on Carpenter from 6/25. I still feel the same way about him. His hit rate is way too low and his strikeout rate is not where it used to be. He should not be putting up a 1.78 ERA. His control is still there, as his walk rate is the best of his career, but that shouldn’t matter too much as the Giants swing at everything. The Cardinals offense has gone cold the last couple games, so taking the Giants is a good value pick here.
Bets
$26 BOS -130
$28 MIN -140
$10 SF +190
Portfolio: $993 (7.8% return)
S&P 500: $927 (0.7% return)
Today's Games
Boston (-130) @ Baltimore (+110)
Minnesota (-140) @ Kansas City (+130)
San Francisco (+190) @ St. Louis (-200)
The first game has John Smoltz matched up against Rich Hill. Smoltz has had one start this year after coming back from injury are didn’t fare too well. He lasted 5 innings, giving up 5 earned runs on 7 hits against the lowly Nationals. 4 of those runs were given up in the first inning, and he really settled down after that. He did manage to strikeout 5 and only walk 1, proving that he still should have good stuff with good control. He was probably just tight and nervous in his first start for the Red Sox, his first game with a team other than the Braves in 20 years. Most of the young Orioles have never seen him before. Rich Hill is off to 3-2 start but with a bad 6.03 ERA. Hill has good stuff and can rack up strikeouts, 8.2 K/9, but can’t seem to control it, 5.79 BB/9. His walk rate is above his career average of 3.86 BB/9, but he’s not showing any signs of improving on that number. This is probably due to injury. The Red Sox offense should knock Hill out by the 6th inning as they have a patient lineup that doesn’t strikeout too much. At -130 the line is just enough to make me like the Red Sox and the veteran Smoltz.
The second game has Scott Baker going up against Brain Bannister. Baker is 5-6 with a 5.17 ERA, but is one of the most underrated pitchers in the game. He’s strikeout rate and walk rate are the best in his career, and his hit rate is normal. His 4.5 K/BB rate is one of the best in the majors. The long ball is what has been hurting him, mainly earlier in the season. He has already given up 17 homeruns in 87 innings compared to 20 in 172 innings last year, and he’s actually giving up fewer fly balls this year. Well in his last 4 starts he is 2-0 with a 3.62 ERA while only allowing 2 homeruns, so he seems to have that under control. And playing the Royals, he should not be too worried about giving up homeruns. Brian Bannister is about as average as they come with a 5-5 record and a 4.17 ERA. He doesn’t strikeout many, 5.45 K/9, doesn’t walk many, 2.9 BB/9, and is not a heavy ground ball pitcher. The better than average Twins offense should score a few off him, and that should be enough for Baker who has a chance to throw a gem tonight.
One more game I like today. Randy Johnson is going up against Chris Carpenter. Johnson is pitching really well as of late, going 4-1 with a 2.57 ERA in his last 7 starts. He still has some left in the tank as his strikeout rate, walk rate, and hit rate all are normal. The Giants have also been playing well as of late. You can see my analysis on Carpenter from 6/25. I still feel the same way about him. His hit rate is way too low and his strikeout rate is not where it used to be. He should not be putting up a 1.78 ERA. His control is still there, as his walk rate is the best of his career, but that shouldn’t matter too much as the Giants swing at everything. The Cardinals offense has gone cold the last couple games, so taking the Giants is a good value pick here.
Bets
$26 BOS -130
$28 MIN -140
$10 SF +190
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