No Action Yesterday

It was an interesting day in baseball yesterday as the Tigers and Dodgers couldn't wrap up their divisions. The Dodgers are already in the playoffs and are just looking to get home field advantage, so it's not that big of a deal for them. The Tigers on the other hand might be a little nervous now as their lead is only 1 game with 2 to go, but they have to like the fact that the Twins are facing Zack Greinke who is determined to lock up the CY Young. It will be interesting.

Portfolio: $1055 (14.5 % return)

S&P 500: $1025 (11.3% return)

Today's Games

Kansas City (-130) @ Minnesota (+120)

In the only game today Zack Greinke is matched up against Nick Blackburn. Greinke is out to prove he's the best pitcher in the American League and help eliminate the Twins from the post season. Greinke has been dominant as of late and basically the whole season. His walks are a little up recently, but his other indicators are strong. Blackburn is pitching in the biggest game of his career and has been on top of his game lately, going 2-0 with a 1.33 ERA in his last 3 starts. He is a typical Twins pitcher as he pitches to contact, walks very few, and is not a ground ball pitcher although he does get a few more ground balls than fly balls. There is no significant variances in his indicators lately, and the fact that he hasn't been letting up runs tells me he's due to start giving up some. I believe this will be a low scoring affair and Greinke will try to go the distance in his last start of the season.

Bet

$26 KC -130

No Action Yesterday

Portfolio: $1137 (23.5% return)
S&P 500: $1065 (15.6% return)

Today’s Games

Los Angeles Dodgers (-200) @ Washington (+170)
Boston (+130) @ Kansas City (-150)

In the first game Hiroki Kuroda is matched up against Livan Hernandez. Kuroda is a control pitcher who gets a few more ground balls than fly balls. He is not a strikeout pitcher but hitters struggle to find the sweet spot against him. Overall he’s a solid number 2 or 3 starter who has been pitching well lately. He’s 2-1 with a 2.84 ERA over his last 3 starts and his indicators are really strong. The soft tossing veteran Hernandez mainly relies on deception as he really does not have one strong indicator. This is most likely the reason why he is 8-11 with a 5.22 ERA this year. He has been decent his last 2 starts, going 1-1 with a 2.70, and that is exactly the reason why I like the Dodgers. Kuroda is on top of his game while Hernandez is due for a let down against the best team in the National League.

In the second game Paul Byrd is matched up against Zack Greinke. The veteran Byrd is similar to Livan Hernandez in the fact that he relies on the deception. The difference between the two is Byrd rarely gives up the walk, and that is why he has been better the last few years. Byrd has not been impressive in his brief time with the Red Sox as he is handing out about twice as much free passes compared to the past 6 years and batters and hitting him hard. Greinke is fine after leaving early in his last start due to being hit with a line drive in the elbow. He has been on top of his game lately and looks to add to his case for the American League CY Young award. Soft tossers like Byrd generally struggle against inexperienced hitters so the Royals should be able to put up a few runs early. Greinke should continue to roll and an impressive performance against a good hitting Red Sox team will definitely secure more votes.

Bets

$40 LAD -200
$30 KC -150

Cardinals Lose, Down $26

Joel Pineiro struggled in the first inning and the Cardinals failed to give him run support. Maybe the Marlins are not out of the race. If you haven’t noticed, the S&P 500 had a solid day and seems to have gained almost everyday for the past 2 weeks.

Portfolio: $1089 (18.2% return)

S&P 500: $1069 (16.1% return)

Today’s Games

Kansas City(-100) @ Detroit (-120)

In the only game today Zack Greinke is matched up against Edwin Jackson. Greinke is on top of his game right now and is showing no signs of slowing down. He is 2-1 with a 1.16 ERA in 4 starts against the Tigers this year. Jackson got off to a great start but has faded lately. His walk rate and hit rate are ticking up to his career averages and that’s the main reason for his recent struggles. I like the Royals, who are playing good baseball and have the best pitcher in the league on the mound, to beat the Tigers, who might start to feel the Twins creeping up on them. I’m not sure why the Tigers are favored in this game.

Bet

$40 KC -100

2-0, Up $30

Not a bad night. That Patriots/Bills game last night was crazy. Both football games last night once again showed how unpredictable the first week of the season is, and why I stayed away from it.

Portfolio: $1122 (21.8% return)
S&P 500: $1049 (13.9% return)

By looking at the chart below you can see that my returns compared to the S&P 500 are more volatile, but that I have been outpacing it most of the time. This is just the beginning, spread the word to people that you think would find this quick daily read interesting. Once baseball season ends there will be less posts, and I'm not sure how much NBA I will get into. But you can expect football picks and most likely some college basketball.



Today’s Games

Kansas City (+150) @ Detroit (-170)
Los Angeles Angels (-110) @ Boston (-110)

In the first game today Robinson Tejeda is matched up against Jarrod Washburn. Tejeda has not allowed a run since becoming a starter, a span of 13 innings over 2 starts. His stuff has been electric and he has really cut down on his walks. The Tigers couldn’t touch him in his last start. Washburn has underachieved for the Tigers after the trade, but has fared well against the Royals this year. He has been getting tagged as of late and his indicators point to him keeping it up. I like the Royals in a good value play here as this game should be a pick’em.

In the second game today John Lackey is matched up against Diasuke Matsuzaka. The Angels ace has been on top of his game lately and should keep it up in what will most likely be a Division Series matchup. Lackey is a big game pitcher who will be up for this game. Matsuzaka has not pitched in the majors since June. He throws way too many pitches and walks too many. He will not last past the 6th against a good Angels team. I’m not sure why the line is even, but I’ll take the Angels at this value.

Bet

$10 KC +150
$22 LAA -110

No Action Yesterday, S&P 500 Continues Steady Gain

The NFL season kicked off last night with the Steelers winning 13-10 and the Titans covering. Tennessee has too good of a defense to be getting 7 points. I will be betting on football games, both college and NFL, but both are really tough to bet on early in the season. I will be betting more on NFL. I am working on a statistical probability system for the NFL, and if it ends up working I won’t be using it until midway through the season. I will still be betting on games before that, just not with my system. I am attempting to find a correlation between certain team stats, winning percentage, and margin of victory.

Over the past few years I have picked NFL games over a 50% clip. Two years ago I was around 65% for the season and hit 16 games in a row over a 4 week span. The probability of hitting 16 games in a row is 1 in 65536. Also, a tip for you bettors, stay away from parlays.

Portfolio: $1036 (12.5% return)
S&P 500: $1044 (13.4% return)

Today’s Games

Kansas City (-140) @ Cleveland (+120)

In the only game today Zack Greinke is matched up against Justin Masterson. Grienke is the leading American League CY Young candidate and has been on top of his game lately. He has not allowed a run in his last 2 starts, a span of 17 innings. His indicators tell me it’s legit. Masterson has struggled with his control since being traded to the Indians. He is a heavy ground ball pitcher to strikes out his fair share, so he has the potential to be pretty good. He just has to improve his control. I like the Royals as Greinke carved up the Indians in his last start, striking out 15, and they are playing well as they are coming off a 3 game sweep of the division leading Tigers.

Bet

$42 KC -140

No Action Yesterday

I had a pretty good weekend, gaining $60 or 6.5%.

Portfolio: $1037 (12.6% return)
S&P 500: $987 (7.2% return)

Today’s Game

Kansas City (+120) @ Tampa Bay (-140)

In the only game I like today Zack Greinke is matched up against Scott Kazmir. Grienke is having a CY Young caliber season with a 10-6 record and 2.08 ERA. The Royals haven’t been scoring any runs for him lately and he should probably have around 15 wins. Greinke really shifted gears this season and proved he is one of the games elite. His strikeouts are up and walks are down and both are at elite levels. He has a great 5.47 K/BB ratio, which is one of the best in the majors. Kazmir has had a rough, injury plagued season going 5-6 with a 6.22 ERA. His indicators don’t look too good either. His 6.89 K/9 rate is down from his 9.46 career average and his 4.56 BB/9 rate is up from his 4.18 career average. His ground ball rate is right on his career average, but that’s not good as he is a fly ball pitcher. His hit rate looks a little high even though it seems he has lost his stuff a little. The Royals offense is really bad, but if they can be patient they should be able to score some runs off Kazmir. The Rays might be pressing a little in trying to win this 4 game series against the lowly Royals to keep pace with Boston and New York. Greinke should throw well and this game will probably be decided on weather the Royals offense and bullpen don’t stink. At +120, I’ll take the AL CY Young candidate.

Bets

$20 KC +120

Easy Game Today

No bets last night. Here's the financial situation.

Portfolio: $913 (-0.9% return)
S&P 500: $ 919 (-0.2% return)

Today's Games

Kansas City (-150) @ Pittsburgh (+140)

Royals ace Zack Greinke is going up against Charlie Morton, who had his start on Friday pushed back due to injury. Greinke is having a CY Young season going 9-3 with a 1.90 ERA with 2 complete game shutouts. He won his last start against Houston by throwing 8 innings of shutout ball after hitting a rough patch in his previous 4 starts where he allowed more than 3 earned runs each game, losing two of those. His last start tells me he's found his stuff again, mostly notably his control. Greinke has only allowed 3 HR's in 109 innings this year, and Pittsburgh really has no power. Greinke's walk rate per 9 innings is 1.49, and Pittsburgh's young hitters are not too patient at the plate. What this tells me is that Pittsburgh most likely will not draw walks or hit home runs with Greinke on the mound. I don't know too much about Charlie Morton, but you can see my analysis of him from Friday's post. I really don't think it matter's how Charlie Morton throws because I doubt he will receive much run support. The main question is whether the Royals offense can score some runs for the CY Young candidate. I feel confident to bet my max limit of 5% on this game.

Bet

$45 KC -150

Santana Outduels Carpenter

The Mets won 3-2 yesterday, gaining $22 for my portfolio. The S&P 500 also gained 20, so I'm just staying ahead of pace. It was a pitcher's duel yesterday with Santana getting out of a couple jams and Carpenter having one bad inning.

Portfolio: 933 (1.3% return)
S&P 500: 920 (-0.1% return)

Today's Games

Kansas City (-110) @ Pittsburgh (-110)
San Francisco (+130) @ Milwaukee (-150)

There are some pretty good pitching matchups today, and a handful of games I like, but I've narrowed it down to my two top picks. The first game has Gil Meche going up agianst Charlie Morton. Meche got rocked his last start after coming off a complete game shutout, and was really solid in his previous 6 starts, allowing no more than 2 ER in each of those starts. Meche is a solid veteran who should bounce back tonight against a Pirates team who is sending out rookie Charlie Morton. Morton is nothing special as his ERA last year was 6.19 in 74 innings and has only had one good minor league season (2008). At -110, I think Kansas City is hard to pass up. Losing the DH should be no big deal as KC can't hit anyway, but should score a few runs off the rookie Morton.

The second game has Matt Cain matched up against Yovani Gallardo. Both have been pitching really well this year and both teams have been playing solid. Cain is off to a 9-1 start with a 2.28 ERA and his skill set is basically the same this year as it was the last two years when he went a combined 15-30. His K/9 rate, BB/9, and H/9 are almost indentical. His strand rate (leading to lower ERA) is a little better than years past and he's getting more (normal) run support. Those are both kind of luck stats, but he was due for a change in luck after suffering through some of the worst luck the last two years. Gallardo has gotten off to a good start, going 7-4 with a 3.00 ERA. He is a dominant strikeout pitcher, avergaing 9.3 K/9, but has had a control problem as of late, averaging 6.1 BB/9 in his last 4 starts. Gallardo's hit rate is also a little depressed compared to his brief history and the major league average, and should correct. The lack of control bodes well for the Giants and Cain. Look for Gallardo to last no more than 6 innings tonight, and Cain to pitch solid.

There are a couple more games that I might add later in the day as I look at the games more.

Bets

$22 KC -110
$20 SF +130