The Indians lost the first game even though Masterson threw well enough to win. Davis also threw well and got a little lucky in stranding a few more runners. In the second game Lincecum got touched in the second for 2 runs but other than that he managed the game well even though he didn't have his best stuff. Lincecum threw 8 and the Giants won 3-2 in 10.
Portfolio: $813 (-11.7% return)
S&P 500: $1103 (19.8% return)
Today's Games (Monday)
Minnesota (-110) @ Kansas City (-110)
In the only game today Francisco Liriano is matched up against Zack Greinke. Liriano is looking like his 2006 self and as been lights out his last 2 starts, but he's walking a little more batters for me to think he'll keep it up. Greinke looks to be finally getting into a groove and is coming off his best start of the year. I like his indicators and I like him to keep up the dominance. This should be a really good game to watch if you're a fan of pitching, I just think the walks will start to catch up to Liriano. When Greinke is on there might not be anyone better. He has the abilty to throw a complete game with around 10 strikeouts in under 100 pitches.
Bets
$22 KC -110
Showing posts with label zack greinke. Show all posts
Showing posts with label zack greinke. Show all posts
Sunday, July 25, 2010
Sunday, May 23, 2010
Astros Lose - Down $10
Portfolio: $855 (-7.2% return)
S&P 500: $1088 (18.1% return)
Today's Games
Florida (-140) @ Chicago White Sox (+120)
Colorado (+130) @ Kansas City (-150)
In the first game Josh Johnson is matched up against Freddy Garcia. Johnson is off to a great start and his indicators (K/9, BB/9, H/9) are as strong as ever. I do not see him slowing down much and I expect him to be in the CY Young talks all summer long. The veteran Garcia is an average pitcher at best. I like the Marlins at -140 and I think they should be favored by more, but since this game is in the American League the Sox have the DH advantage.
In the second game Aaron Cook is matched up against Zack Greinke. Cook is an average major league pitcher that always keeps his team in the game. He gets a lot of ground balls and does not strike out many. He has been walking more batters than usual this year, and that's not a good sign since he has very little margin for error. Greinke is having another CY Young caliber season, but is off to a 1-4 start due to some bad luck. His indicators are strong and I expect him to start picking up some wins. At -150, I think the Royals with Greinke on the hill are a pretty good play.
Bets
$14 FLA -140
$15 KC -150
S&P 500: $1088 (18.1% return)
Today's Games
Florida (-140) @ Chicago White Sox (+120)
Colorado (+130) @ Kansas City (-150)
In the first game Josh Johnson is matched up against Freddy Garcia. Johnson is off to a great start and his indicators (K/9, BB/9, H/9) are as strong as ever. I do not see him slowing down much and I expect him to be in the CY Young talks all summer long. The veteran Garcia is an average pitcher at best. I like the Marlins at -140 and I think they should be favored by more, but since this game is in the American League the Sox have the DH advantage.
In the second game Aaron Cook is matched up against Zack Greinke. Cook is an average major league pitcher that always keeps his team in the game. He gets a lot of ground balls and does not strike out many. He has been walking more batters than usual this year, and that's not a good sign since he has very little margin for error. Greinke is having another CY Young caliber season, but is off to a 1-4 start due to some bad luck. His indicators are strong and I expect him to start picking up some wins. At -150, I think the Royals with Greinke on the hill are a pretty good play.
Bets
$14 FLA -140
$15 KC -150
Saturday, October 3, 2009
No Action Yesterday
It was an interesting day in baseball yesterday as the Tigers and Dodgers couldn't wrap up their divisions. The Dodgers are already in the playoffs and are just looking to get home field advantage, so it's not that big of a deal for them. The Tigers on the other hand might be a little nervous now as their lead is only 1 game with 2 to go, but they have to like the fact that the Twins are facing Zack Greinke who is determined to lock up the CY Young. It will be interesting.
Portfolio: $1055 (14.5 % return)
S&P 500: $1025 (11.3% return)
Today's Games
Kansas City (-130) @ Minnesota (+120)
In the only game today Zack Greinke is matched up against Nick Blackburn. Greinke is out to prove he's the best pitcher in the American League and help eliminate the Twins from the post season. Greinke has been dominant as of late and basically the whole season. His walks are a little up recently, but his other indicators are strong. Blackburn is pitching in the biggest game of his career and has been on top of his game lately, going 2-0 with a 1.33 ERA in his last 3 starts. He is a typical Twins pitcher as he pitches to contact, walks very few, and is not a ground ball pitcher although he does get a few more ground balls than fly balls. There is no significant variances in his indicators lately, and the fact that he hasn't been letting up runs tells me he's due to start giving up some. I believe this will be a low scoring affair and Greinke will try to go the distance in his last start of the season.
Bet
$26 KC -130
Tuesday, September 22, 2009
No Action Yesterday
Portfolio: $1137 (23.5% return)
S&P 500: $1065 (15.6% return)
Today’s Games
Los Angeles Dodgers (-200) @ Washington (+170)
Boston (+130) @ Kansas City (-150)
In the first game Hiroki Kuroda is matched up against Livan Hernandez. Kuroda is a control pitcher who gets a few more ground balls than fly balls. He is not a strikeout pitcher but hitters struggle to find the sweet spot against him. Overall he’s a solid number 2 or 3 starter who has been pitching well lately. He’s 2-1 with a 2.84 ERA over his last 3 starts and his indicators are really strong. The soft tossing veteran Hernandez mainly relies on deception as he really does not have one strong indicator. This is most likely the reason why he is 8-11 with a 5.22 ERA this year. He has been decent his last 2 starts, going 1-1 with a 2.70, and that is exactly the reason why I like the Dodgers. Kuroda is on top of his game while Hernandez is due for a let down against the best team in the National League.
In the second game Paul Byrd is matched up against Zack Greinke. The veteran Byrd is similar to Livan Hernandez in the fact that he relies on the deception. The difference between the two is Byrd rarely gives up the walk, and that is why he has been better the last few years. Byrd has not been impressive in his brief time with the Red Sox as he is handing out about twice as much free passes compared to the past 6 years and batters and hitting him hard. Greinke is fine after leaving early in his last start due to being hit with a line drive in the elbow. He has been on top of his game lately and looks to add to his case for the American League CY Young award. Soft tossers like Byrd generally struggle against inexperienced hitters so the Royals should be able to put up a few runs early. Greinke should continue to roll and an impressive performance against a good hitting Red Sox team will definitely secure more votes.
Bets
$40 LAD -200
$30 KC -150
S&P 500: $1065 (15.6% return)
Today’s Games
Los Angeles Dodgers (-200) @ Washington (+170)
Boston (+130) @ Kansas City (-150)
In the first game Hiroki Kuroda is matched up against Livan Hernandez. Kuroda is a control pitcher who gets a few more ground balls than fly balls. He is not a strikeout pitcher but hitters struggle to find the sweet spot against him. Overall he’s a solid number 2 or 3 starter who has been pitching well lately. He’s 2-1 with a 2.84 ERA over his last 3 starts and his indicators are really strong. The soft tossing veteran Hernandez mainly relies on deception as he really does not have one strong indicator. This is most likely the reason why he is 8-11 with a 5.22 ERA this year. He has been decent his last 2 starts, going 1-1 with a 2.70, and that is exactly the reason why I like the Dodgers. Kuroda is on top of his game while Hernandez is due for a let down against the best team in the National League.
In the second game Paul Byrd is matched up against Zack Greinke. The veteran Byrd is similar to Livan Hernandez in the fact that he relies on the deception. The difference between the two is Byrd rarely gives up the walk, and that is why he has been better the last few years. Byrd has not been impressive in his brief time with the Red Sox as he is handing out about twice as much free passes compared to the past 6 years and batters and hitting him hard. Greinke is fine after leaving early in his last start due to being hit with a line drive in the elbow. He has been on top of his game lately and looks to add to his case for the American League CY Young award. Soft tossers like Byrd generally struggle against inexperienced hitters so the Royals should be able to put up a few runs early. Greinke should continue to roll and an impressive performance against a good hitting Red Sox team will definitely secure more votes.
Bets
$40 LAD -200
$30 KC -150
Thursday, September 17, 2009
Cardinals Lose, Down $26
Joel Pineiro struggled in the first inning and the Cardinals failed to give him run support. Maybe the Marlins are not out of the race. If you haven’t noticed, the S&P 500 had a solid day and seems to have gained almost everyday for the past 2 weeks.
Portfolio: $1089 (18.2% return)
S&P 500: $1069 (16.1% return)
Today’s Games
Kansas City(-100) @ Detroit (-120)
In the only game today Zack Greinke is matched up against Edwin Jackson. Greinke is on top of his game right now and is showing no signs of slowing down. He is 2-1 with a 1.16 ERA in 4 starts against the Tigers this year. Jackson got off to a great start but has faded lately. His walk rate and hit rate are ticking up to his career averages and that’s the main reason for his recent struggles. I like the Royals, who are playing good baseball and have the best pitcher in the league on the mound, to beat the Tigers, who might start to feel the Twins creeping up on them. I’m not sure why the Tigers are favored in this game.
Bet
$40 KC -100
Friday, September 11, 2009
No Action Yesterday, S&P 500 Continues Steady Gain
The NFL season kicked off last night with the Steelers winning 13-10 and the Titans covering. Tennessee has too good of a defense to be getting 7 points. I will be betting on football games, both college and NFL, but both are really tough to bet on early in the season. I will be betting more on NFL. I am working on a statistical probability system for the NFL, and if it ends up working I won’t be using it until midway through the season. I will still be betting on games before that, just not with my system. I am attempting to find a correlation between certain team stats, winning percentage, and margin of victory.
Over the past few years I have picked NFL games over a 50% clip. Two years ago I was around 65% for the season and hit 16 games in a row over a 4 week span. The probability of hitting 16 games in a row is 1 in 65536. Also, a tip for you bettors, stay away from parlays.
Portfolio: $1036 (12.5% return)
S&P 500: $1044 (13.4% return)
Today’s Games
Kansas City (-140) @ Cleveland (+120)
In the only game today Zack Greinke is matched up against Justin Masterson. Grienke is the leading American League CY Young candidate and has been on top of his game lately. He has not allowed a run in his last 2 starts, a span of 17 innings. His indicators tell me it’s legit. Masterson has struggled with his control since being traded to the Indians. He is a heavy ground ball pitcher to strikes out his fair share, so he has the potential to be pretty good. He just has to improve his control. I like the Royals as Greinke carved up the Indians in his last start, striking out 15, and they are playing well as they are coming off a 3 game sweep of the division leading Tigers.
Bet
$42 KC -140
Over the past few years I have picked NFL games over a 50% clip. Two years ago I was around 65% for the season and hit 16 games in a row over a 4 week span. The probability of hitting 16 games in a row is 1 in 65536. Also, a tip for you bettors, stay away from parlays.
Portfolio: $1036 (12.5% return)
S&P 500: $1044 (13.4% return)
Today’s Games
Kansas City (-140) @ Cleveland (+120)
In the only game today Zack Greinke is matched up against Justin Masterson. Grienke is the leading American League CY Young candidate and has been on top of his game lately. He has not allowed a run in his last 2 starts, a span of 17 innings. His indicators tell me it’s legit. Masterson has struggled with his control since being traded to the Indians. He is a heavy ground ball pitcher to strikes out his fair share, so he has the potential to be pretty good. He just has to improve his control. I like the Royals as Greinke carved up the Indians in his last start, striking out 15, and they are playing well as they are coming off a 3 game sweep of the division leading Tigers.
Bet
$42 KC -140
Monday, August 3, 2009
No Action Yesterday
I had a pretty good weekend, gaining $60 or 6.5%.
Portfolio: $1037 (12.6% return)
S&P 500: $987 (7.2% return)
Today’s Game
Kansas City (+120) @ Tampa Bay (-140)
In the only game I like today Zack Greinke is matched up against Scott Kazmir. Grienke is having a CY Young caliber season with a 10-6 record and 2.08 ERA. The Royals haven’t been scoring any runs for him lately and he should probably have around 15 wins. Greinke really shifted gears this season and proved he is one of the games elite. His strikeouts are up and walks are down and both are at elite levels. He has a great 5.47 K/BB ratio, which is one of the best in the majors. Kazmir has had a rough, injury plagued season going 5-6 with a 6.22 ERA. His indicators don’t look too good either. His 6.89 K/9 rate is down from his 9.46 career average and his 4.56 BB/9 rate is up from his 4.18 career average. His ground ball rate is right on his career average, but that’s not good as he is a fly ball pitcher. His hit rate looks a little high even though it seems he has lost his stuff a little. The Royals offense is really bad, but if they can be patient they should be able to score some runs off Kazmir. The Rays might be pressing a little in trying to win this 4 game series against the lowly Royals to keep pace with Boston and New York. Greinke should throw well and this game will probably be decided on weather the Royals offense and bullpen don’t stink. At +120, I’ll take the AL CY Young candidate.
Bets
$20 KC +120
Portfolio: $1037 (12.6% return)
S&P 500: $987 (7.2% return)
Today’s Game
Kansas City (+120) @ Tampa Bay (-140)
In the only game I like today Zack Greinke is matched up against Scott Kazmir. Grienke is having a CY Young caliber season with a 10-6 record and 2.08 ERA. The Royals haven’t been scoring any runs for him lately and he should probably have around 15 wins. Greinke really shifted gears this season and proved he is one of the games elite. His strikeouts are up and walks are down and both are at elite levels. He has a great 5.47 K/BB ratio, which is one of the best in the majors. Kazmir has had a rough, injury plagued season going 5-6 with a 6.22 ERA. His indicators don’t look too good either. His 6.89 K/9 rate is down from his 9.46 career average and his 4.56 BB/9 rate is up from his 4.18 career average. His ground ball rate is right on his career average, but that’s not good as he is a fly ball pitcher. His hit rate looks a little high even though it seems he has lost his stuff a little. The Royals offense is really bad, but if they can be patient they should be able to score some runs off Kazmir. The Rays might be pressing a little in trying to win this 4 game series against the lowly Royals to keep pace with Boston and New York. Greinke should throw well and this game will probably be decided on weather the Royals offense and bullpen don’t stink. At +120, I’ll take the AL CY Young candidate.
Bets
$20 KC +120
Wednesday, July 8, 2009
Padres Lose - Down $20
The Diamonbacks pulled out the 4-3 victory with both pitchers pitching well. Correira pitched like he has all season, and Davis continued to strand runners at a high rate by only allowing 2 runs even though he allowed 12 baserunners. The S&P continued it's poor run as of late, so at least it didn't gain on me. I passed on betting against Gallardo last night and it hurt me. He was wild, walking 5 in 5 innings while allowing 4 ER in a loss. He's a good pitcher, he just needs to work on his control.
Portfolio: $1000 (8.6% return)
S&P 500: $881 (-4.3% return)
Today's Games
None.
Check back as a may change my mind. Two games jumped out at first, but after looking into them I changed my mind. The Padres jumped out again at +160 with Chad Gaudin facing Max Scherzer and the Diamondbacks. The reason I backed away from this is that the Diamondbacks seem to be hitting their stride lately. Both Gaudin and Scherzer are inconsistent, so it's odd for the Diamondbacks to be favored by that much (-180). The other game that jumped out was Kansas City (-135) @ Detroit (+115). Greinke, who has 2 complete game wins against Detroit this year, is facing rookie Luke French. The Royals should be favored by more, but their offense is anemic and the fact that they are facing a lefty for the first time can be trouble. I'm staying away from this one.
Portfolio: $1000 (8.6% return)
S&P 500: $881 (-4.3% return)
Today's Games
None.
Check back as a may change my mind. Two games jumped out at first, but after looking into them I changed my mind. The Padres jumped out again at +160 with Chad Gaudin facing Max Scherzer and the Diamondbacks. The reason I backed away from this is that the Diamondbacks seem to be hitting their stride lately. Both Gaudin and Scherzer are inconsistent, so it's odd for the Diamondbacks to be favored by that much (-180). The other game that jumped out was Kansas City (-135) @ Detroit (+115). Greinke, who has 2 complete game wins against Detroit this year, is facing rookie Luke French. The Royals should be favored by more, but their offense is anemic and the fact that they are facing a lefty for the first time can be trouble. I'm staying away from this one.
Sunday, June 28, 2009
Easy Game Today
No bets last night. Here's the financial situation.
Portfolio: $913 (-0.9% return)
S&P 500: $ 919 (-0.2% return)
Today's Games
Kansas City (-150) @ Pittsburgh (+140)
Royals ace Zack Greinke is going up against Charlie Morton, who had his start on Friday pushed back due to injury. Greinke is having a CY Young season going 9-3 with a 1.90 ERA with 2 complete game shutouts. He won his last start against Houston by throwing 8 innings of shutout ball after hitting a rough patch in his previous 4 starts where he allowed more than 3 earned runs each game, losing two of those. His last start tells me he's found his stuff again, mostly notably his control. Greinke has only allowed 3 HR's in 109 innings this year, and Pittsburgh really has no power. Greinke's walk rate per 9 innings is 1.49, and Pittsburgh's young hitters are not too patient at the plate. What this tells me is that Pittsburgh most likely will not draw walks or hit home runs with Greinke on the mound. I don't know too much about Charlie Morton, but you can see my analysis of him from Friday's post. I really don't think it matter's how Charlie Morton throws because I doubt he will receive much run support. The main question is whether the Royals offense can score some runs for the CY Young candidate. I feel confident to bet my max limit of 5% on this game.
Bet
$45 KC -150
Portfolio: $913 (-0.9% return)
S&P 500: $ 919 (-0.2% return)
Today's Games
Kansas City (-150) @ Pittsburgh (+140)
Royals ace Zack Greinke is going up against Charlie Morton, who had his start on Friday pushed back due to injury. Greinke is having a CY Young season going 9-3 with a 1.90 ERA with 2 complete game shutouts. He won his last start against Houston by throwing 8 innings of shutout ball after hitting a rough patch in his previous 4 starts where he allowed more than 3 earned runs each game, losing two of those. His last start tells me he's found his stuff again, mostly notably his control. Greinke has only allowed 3 HR's in 109 innings this year, and Pittsburgh really has no power. Greinke's walk rate per 9 innings is 1.49, and Pittsburgh's young hitters are not too patient at the plate. What this tells me is that Pittsburgh most likely will not draw walks or hit home runs with Greinke on the mound. I don't know too much about Charlie Morton, but you can see my analysis of him from Friday's post. I really don't think it matter's how Charlie Morton throws because I doubt he will receive much run support. The main question is whether the Royals offense can score some runs for the CY Young candidate. I feel confident to bet my max limit of 5% on this game.
Bet
$45 KC -150
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