No Action

I didn’t like any games and the S&P 500 gained a little.

Portfolio: $977 (6.1% return)
S&P 500: $987 (7.2% return)

Today’s Games

Boston (-130) @ Baltimore (+110)
Colorado (-150) @ Cincinnati (+130)

The first game has the veteran John Smoltz matched up against Jeremy Guthrie. Smoltz has gotten off to a rough start with a 1-4 record and 7.04 ERA, but by looking into his numbers I can see things turning around. His strikeouts are still there and so is his control. What has hurt him is his high hit rate, which is 50% higher than his career average. His ground ball rate is down a little so it is expected he will give up more hits, but not this much. I would not be surprised if he strung together some good starts soon. Guthrie has been struggling all year with a 7-9 record and 5.21 ERA. His other numbers don’t look too good either. His strikeouts are slightly down and his walks are slightly up. He also has the lowest ground ball rate in his career and actually has been giving up more fly balls than ground balls this year. This has lead to a higher hit rate and more home runs, not good. I look for Smoltz’s luck to turn around and the Red Sox to pick up the victory.

The second game has Aaron Cook going up against Justin Lehr. Cook is a heavy ground ball pitcher who always keeps his team in the game. He will very rarely go out and dominate, but he will also very rarely get rocked. He has upped his strikeouts by about 1 K/9 from his career average, and his walks and ground balls are right in line with his averages. Lehr hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2006 and isn’t anything special. His minor league numbers won’t make you look twice and the Rockies should have a field day against a pitcher making his first start in 3 years. I also like the fact that Cincinnati’s ballpark is a band box and Colorado can hit with the best of them. The Rockies played a double header and had to travel yesterday, and this is probably the reason why the line is at -150 compared to -200. I’ll take my chances they’ll have enough energy as they are pushing for a playoff spot against the slumping Reds.

Bets

$26 BOS -130
$30 COL -150

No Bets Yesterday

Good thing I backed off the games that I originally liked as both lost.

Portfolio: $1040 (12.9% return)
S&P 500: $879 (-4.6% return)

Today's Game

Cincinnati (-110) @ NY Mets (-100)

In the only game I like to today Aaron Harang is matched up against Mike Pelfrey. The Reds ace is 5-8 with a 3.89 ERA. His strikeout rate of 7.7 K/9 is down from his 2006-2007 average of 8.4 K/9, but in his last 4 starts it looks like he is getting that back by striking out 25 in 24 1/3 innings. His low walk rate of 2.11 BB/9 is consistent from the last 5 years, but his hit rate is a little up due to a decrease in ground balls. He gives up the long ball, but not at a higher rate than the last 5 years. The long ball should not be a big factor as the Mets have hit the least amount of home runs in the majors. So other than the decrease in ground balls it looks like he is getting back to his 06-07 form, which were the best years of his career. Pelfrey is an average ground ball pitcher who won't strikeout many, as shown by his 4.61 K/9 rate. He doesn't walk many with 3.34 BB/9, but that is up from his 2.87 BB/9 rate last year and has struggled to find the strike zone in his last 2 starts. His hit rate of 10.31 H/9 is probably a little higher than it should be given that his ground ball rate is up. It looks like Harang is starting to pitch like he did in 06-07 and I look for him to pitch solid today and pickup the win and the series for the Reds.

Bets

$22 CIN -110