The Phillies won easily while Josh Johnson and the Marlins struggled.
Portfolio: $1056 (14.7% return)
S&P 500: $1007 (9.3% return)
Today’s Game
San Francisco (+160) @ Colorado (-180)
In the only game I like today Jonathan Sanchez is matched up against Aaron Cook. Sanchez is an erratic pitcher who has good stuff. His strikeout and hit rates tell me his stuff is pretty good, and the fact that he threw a no hitter puts his stuff up there with the best. His problem is he walks way too many. Even with 10 walks in his last 19 innings, he has gone 1-1 with a 2.84 ERA over that time which tells me he is at the top of his game stuff wise. Believe it or not, Sanchez’s indicators are almost identical to Clayton Kershaw’s. Kershaw has had some luck in his hit rate and strand rate which is why his ERA is 2.96 compared to 4.49 for Sanchez. The veteran Cook is usually a solid ground ball pitcher who keeps his team in the game, but he has reverted back to his early season form and that’s not good news for the Rockies. He is 0-2 with an 8.36 ERA over his last 3 starts. His walks have increased, strikeouts decreased, and he is giving up the long ball. If he can’t snap out of this funk he could be in for a long night even against a light hitting Giants team. I like the Giants in game 1 of their biggest series of the year.
Bet
$20 SF +160
Showing posts with label aaron cook. Show all posts
Showing posts with label aaron cook. Show all posts
Friday, August 21, 2009
Friday, July 31, 2009
No Action
I didn’t like any games and the S&P 500 gained a little.
Portfolio: $977 (6.1% return)
S&P 500: $987 (7.2% return)
Today’s Games
Boston (-130) @ Baltimore (+110)
Colorado (-150) @ Cincinnati (+130)
The first game has the veteran John Smoltz matched up against Jeremy Guthrie. Smoltz has gotten off to a rough start with a 1-4 record and 7.04 ERA, but by looking into his numbers I can see things turning around. His strikeouts are still there and so is his control. What has hurt him is his high hit rate, which is 50% higher than his career average. His ground ball rate is down a little so it is expected he will give up more hits, but not this much. I would not be surprised if he strung together some good starts soon. Guthrie has been struggling all year with a 7-9 record and 5.21 ERA. His other numbers don’t look too good either. His strikeouts are slightly down and his walks are slightly up. He also has the lowest ground ball rate in his career and actually has been giving up more fly balls than ground balls this year. This has lead to a higher hit rate and more home runs, not good. I look for Smoltz’s luck to turn around and the Red Sox to pick up the victory.
The second game has Aaron Cook going up against Justin Lehr. Cook is a heavy ground ball pitcher who always keeps his team in the game. He will very rarely go out and dominate, but he will also very rarely get rocked. He has upped his strikeouts by about 1 K/9 from his career average, and his walks and ground balls are right in line with his averages. Lehr hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2006 and isn’t anything special. His minor league numbers won’t make you look twice and the Rockies should have a field day against a pitcher making his first start in 3 years. I also like the fact that Cincinnati’s ballpark is a band box and Colorado can hit with the best of them. The Rockies played a double header and had to travel yesterday, and this is probably the reason why the line is at -150 compared to -200. I’ll take my chances they’ll have enough energy as they are pushing for a playoff spot against the slumping Reds.
Bets
$26 BOS -130
$30 COL -150
Portfolio: $977 (6.1% return)
S&P 500: $987 (7.2% return)
Today’s Games
Boston (-130) @ Baltimore (+110)
Colorado (-150) @ Cincinnati (+130)
The first game has the veteran John Smoltz matched up against Jeremy Guthrie. Smoltz has gotten off to a rough start with a 1-4 record and 7.04 ERA, but by looking into his numbers I can see things turning around. His strikeouts are still there and so is his control. What has hurt him is his high hit rate, which is 50% higher than his career average. His ground ball rate is down a little so it is expected he will give up more hits, but not this much. I would not be surprised if he strung together some good starts soon. Guthrie has been struggling all year with a 7-9 record and 5.21 ERA. His other numbers don’t look too good either. His strikeouts are slightly down and his walks are slightly up. He also has the lowest ground ball rate in his career and actually has been giving up more fly balls than ground balls this year. This has lead to a higher hit rate and more home runs, not good. I look for Smoltz’s luck to turn around and the Red Sox to pick up the victory.
The second game has Aaron Cook going up against Justin Lehr. Cook is a heavy ground ball pitcher who always keeps his team in the game. He will very rarely go out and dominate, but he will also very rarely get rocked. He has upped his strikeouts by about 1 K/9 from his career average, and his walks and ground balls are right in line with his averages. Lehr hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2006 and isn’t anything special. His minor league numbers won’t make you look twice and the Rockies should have a field day against a pitcher making his first start in 3 years. I also like the fact that Cincinnati’s ballpark is a band box and Colorado can hit with the best of them. The Rockies played a double header and had to travel yesterday, and this is probably the reason why the line is at -150 compared to -200. I’ll take my chances they’ll have enough energy as they are pushing for a playoff spot against the slumping Reds.
Bets
$26 BOS -130
$30 COL -150
Thursday, July 9, 2009
Best Bet Was No Bet
Good thing I backed off the 2 games that popped out yesterday. The Diamondbacks look to be heating up and the Royals couldn't hit the rookie left hander even though Greinke pitched solid.
Portfolio: $1000 (8.6% return)
S&P 500: $880 (-4.5% return)
Today's Game
Atlanta (+110) @ Colorado (-130)
Today's game has undefeated rookie Tommy Hanson going up against Aaron Cook. Hanson is 4-0 with a 2.25 ERA to start off his career, but I believe he is in for his first loss tonight. He has not been striking out batters anywhere near the rate he did in the minors, and his hit rate is pretty low and should begin to tick up. He seems to have found his control in his last 2 starts, after walking 15 in his first 23 innings, but the Rockies are a patient team and will make him work. Aaron Cook has been pitching really good as of late, going 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA in his last 4 starts. His strikeout rate, walk rate, hit rate, and groundball rate are all normal. Cook struggled early in the season, walking more batters than normal and giving up an unusual amount of home runs, but he has corrected those and has been one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball lately. Look for Cook pitch solid and Hanson to last no more than 6 innings.
Bet
$26 COL -130
Portfolio: $1000 (8.6% return)
S&P 500: $880 (-4.5% return)
Today's Game
Atlanta (+110) @ Colorado (-130)
Today's game has undefeated rookie Tommy Hanson going up against Aaron Cook. Hanson is 4-0 with a 2.25 ERA to start off his career, but I believe he is in for his first loss tonight. He has not been striking out batters anywhere near the rate he did in the minors, and his hit rate is pretty low and should begin to tick up. He seems to have found his control in his last 2 starts, after walking 15 in his first 23 innings, but the Rockies are a patient team and will make him work. Aaron Cook has been pitching really good as of late, going 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA in his last 4 starts. His strikeout rate, walk rate, hit rate, and groundball rate are all normal. Cook struggled early in the season, walking more batters than normal and giving up an unusual amount of home runs, but he has corrected those and has been one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball lately. Look for Cook pitch solid and Hanson to last no more than 6 innings.
Bet
$26 COL -130
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