Buchholz Gets Rocked, Red Sox Lose

The Red Sox almost dug out of the hole that Clay Buchholz put them in, losing 8-7 and leaving the tying run on second base. This is why is hard to bet at the end of the season.

Portfolio: $1081 (17.4% return)
S&P 500: $1061 (15.2% return)

Today’s Games

Minnesota (-130) @ Detroit (+110)

In the only game today Carl Pavano is matched up against Eddie Bonine. Pavano has been a solid acquisition for the Twins and has eaten up the Tigers this year going 4-0 with a 1.69 ERA in 5 starts. He has 22 strikeouts to only 1 walk in those starts. He has been keeping his team in the game in as of late and his indicators are right where they should be for him. Bonine is making just his 4th start this year and has a 2.31 ERA in his last 2 starts. His indicators tell me he’s nothing special and he is getting lucky with a low hit rate. He doesn’t strikeout enough batters and walks too many to sustain a low ERA. I like the Twins to take this must win game with a veteran pitcher who has had success in big games. At -130 I believe this is a good value play.

Bets

$26 MIN -130

Cardinals Lose, Down $26

Joel Pineiro struggled in the first inning and the Cardinals failed to give him run support. Maybe the Marlins are not out of the race. If you haven’t noticed, the S&P 500 had a solid day and seems to have gained almost everyday for the past 2 weeks.

Portfolio: $1089 (18.2% return)

S&P 500: $1069 (16.1% return)

Today’s Games

Kansas City(-100) @ Detroit (-120)

In the only game today Zack Greinke is matched up against Edwin Jackson. Greinke is on top of his game right now and is showing no signs of slowing down. He is 2-1 with a 1.16 ERA in 4 starts against the Tigers this year. Jackson got off to a great start but has faded lately. His walk rate and hit rate are ticking up to his career averages and that’s the main reason for his recent struggles. I like the Royals, who are playing good baseball and have the best pitcher in the league on the mound, to beat the Tigers, who might start to feel the Twins creeping up on them. I’m not sure why the Tigers are favored in this game.

Bet

$40 KC -100

No Action Last Night

Portfolio: $935 (1.5% return)

S&P 500: $1010 (9.7% return)

Today's Game

Minnesota (+110) @ Detriot (-120)

In the only game I like today Scott Baker is going up against Jarrod Washburn. Baker's 9-7 record and 4.59 ERA make it look like he is an average pitcher having an average season, but that's not the case. He has a solid 3.9 K/BB ratio and has shown improvement on his strikeout rate over the last 3 years. His walk rate of 1.91 BB/9 is one of the best in the majors. Baker was the victim of bad luck early on in the season with a low strand rate and high home run rate. He is a fly ball pitcher so he will allow his fair share of long balls, but not at the rate he was giving up earlier. Over his last 3 starts he is 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA. Pitching in the spacious Tigers ballpark will really benefit him today. Washburn on the other hand looks like he going out and dominating on a regular basis with an 8-7 and a 2.93 ERA. Well that's not the case as he has been the beneficiary of good luck. His strikeout and walk rate are right on his career averages and he is still a fly ball pitcher. What has helped him is his low hit rate of 7.48 compared to his 8.92 career average. It also seems he is getting a little lucky on strand rate. He is starting to come back to earth in his last 2 starts going 0-1 with a 5.11 ERA. I like the underdog Twins, with their ace on the mound, to take this series from the Tigers.

Bets

$20 MIN +110