Portfolio: $934 (1.4% return)
S&P 500: $1065 (15.6% return)
Today’s Games
Minnesota (+260) @ New York Yankees (-310)
Boston (-100) @ Los Angeles Angels (-110)
In the first game Nick Blackburn is matched up against A.J. Burnett. Blackburn has been really solid lately as he has had pinpoint control, walking only 1 in his last 27 1/3 innings. He will not strikeout many,( 4.29 K/9) gives up more than a hit per inning and is a fly ball pitcher that gives up home runs. But he has been really effective as of late as he has upped his K’s a good amount and has only had one bad start in his last nine. Burnett is an erratic pitcher that has been throwing well lately, although he doesn’t hesitate to give out the free pass. I have a feeling that Blackburn will frustrate the veteran Yankee lineup as he seems to be hitting his spots. I am not that worried that this is his first postseason game because the Twins have been playing like they have been in the postseason for the past month. The Twins are one of the hottest teams in baseball and I think they will rally back and make a good series. Blackburn is coming off a start in which he outdueled Zack Greinke, the probable American League CY Young winner, in a must win game. This is a good value play.
In the second game Josh Beckett is matched up against Jered Weaver. Beckett’s indicators aren’t the best lately as his hits and walks are up a little, but his strikeouts are there. Weaver has been throwing well lately and his indicators are right in line with his season averages. Beckett is a proven big game pitcher and I don’t think he’ll let his team go down 0-2.
Bets
$10 MIN +260
$20 BOS -100
Showing posts with label minnesota twins. Show all posts
Showing posts with label minnesota twins. Show all posts
Friday, October 9, 2009
Saturday, October 3, 2009
No Action Yesterday
It was an interesting day in baseball yesterday as the Tigers and Dodgers couldn't wrap up their divisions. The Dodgers are already in the playoffs and are just looking to get home field advantage, so it's not that big of a deal for them. The Tigers on the other hand might be a little nervous now as their lead is only 1 game with 2 to go, but they have to like the fact that the Twins are facing Zack Greinke who is determined to lock up the CY Young. It will be interesting.
Portfolio: $1055 (14.5 % return)
S&P 500: $1025 (11.3% return)
Today's Games
Kansas City (-130) @ Minnesota (+120)
In the only game today Zack Greinke is matched up against Nick Blackburn. Greinke is out to prove he's the best pitcher in the American League and help eliminate the Twins from the post season. Greinke has been dominant as of late and basically the whole season. His walks are a little up recently, but his other indicators are strong. Blackburn is pitching in the biggest game of his career and has been on top of his game lately, going 2-0 with a 1.33 ERA in his last 3 starts. He is a typical Twins pitcher as he pitches to contact, walks very few, and is not a ground ball pitcher although he does get a few more ground balls than fly balls. There is no significant variances in his indicators lately, and the fact that he hasn't been letting up runs tells me he's due to start giving up some. I believe this will be a low scoring affair and Greinke will try to go the distance in his last start of the season.
Bet
$26 KC -130
Wednesday, September 30, 2009
Buchholz Gets Rocked, Red Sox Lose
The Red Sox almost dug out of the hole that Clay Buchholz put them in, losing 8-7 and leaving the tying run on second base. This is why is hard to bet at the end of the season.
Portfolio: $1081 (17.4% return)
S&P 500: $1061 (15.2% return)
Today’s Games
Minnesota (-130) @ Detroit (+110)
In the only game today Carl Pavano is matched up against Eddie Bonine. Pavano has been a solid acquisition for the Twins and has eaten up the Tigers this year going 4-0 with a 1.69 ERA in 5 starts. He has 22 strikeouts to only 1 walk in those starts. He has been keeping his team in the game in as of late and his indicators are right where they should be for him. Bonine is making just his 4th start this year and has a 2.31 ERA in his last 2 starts. His indicators tell me he’s nothing special and he is getting lucky with a low hit rate. He doesn’t strikeout enough batters and walks too many to sustain a low ERA. I like the Twins to take this must win game with a veteran pitcher who has had success in big games. At -130 I believe this is a good value play.
Bets
$26 MIN -130
Portfolio: $1081 (17.4% return)
S&P 500: $1061 (15.2% return)
Today’s Games
Minnesota (-130) @ Detroit (+110)
In the only game today Carl Pavano is matched up against Eddie Bonine. Pavano has been a solid acquisition for the Twins and has eaten up the Tigers this year going 4-0 with a 1.69 ERA in 5 starts. He has 22 strikeouts to only 1 walk in those starts. He has been keeping his team in the game in as of late and his indicators are right where they should be for him. Bonine is making just his 4th start this year and has a 2.31 ERA in his last 2 starts. His indicators tell me he’s nothing special and he is getting lucky with a low hit rate. He doesn’t strikeout enough batters and walks too many to sustain a low ERA. I like the Twins to take this must win game with a veteran pitcher who has had success in big games. At -130 I believe this is a good value play.
Bets
$26 MIN -130
Monday, September 14, 2009
No Action Yesterday
It’s nice to see the NFL season starting again. I might bet a couple games next week now that I have a little feel for the teams. The one thing to remember about the NFL is that teams are not as good or bad as you think. I generally like to bet on teams that looked horrible the week before or against media over-hyped teams. A good example of this theory was the Jets/Texans game yesterday. The Jets were starting a rookie on the road while the Texans were supposed to have a high powered offense, so the -5 line seemed a little low. I bet Vegas made a killing on that game.
Portfolio: $1092 (18.6% return)
S&P 500: $1043 (13.2% return)
Today’s Games
Cleveland (+140) @ Minnesota (-160)
Colorado (+170) @ San Francisco (-180)
In the first game Jeremy Sowers is matched up against Carl Pavano. Sowers is a soft tossing left hander who has control issues. He really is not a major league pitcher, and I have yet to figure out why the Indians continue to give him opportunities. His K’s are way below the major league average at 3.69 and his walks are above the major league average at 3.61. He is also a fly ball pitcher. Not much to like here. Pavano is having an average season after being out most of the last 3 years due to injury. His indicators are pretty good and he has been throwing well over the last few months. He does occasionally get lit up, and that has really hurt his overall numbers. I doubt the Indians will light him up, and the Twins should be able to cross the plate a few times against Sowers.
In the second game Jason Hammel is matched up against Tim Lincecum. Hammel is turning into a solid middle of the rotation starter, and has been throwing well as of late. But I do not think he will out duel the rested Lincecum, who had his last start skipped due to a stiff lower back. Lincecum should have a little extra on his pitches and I really would not be surprised to see him go the distance in this must win game. The kid is so competitive that once he’s out there on the mound he will be fine.
Bet
$16 MIN -160
$36 SF -180
Portfolio: $1092 (18.6% return)
S&P 500: $1043 (13.2% return)
Today’s Games
Cleveland (+140) @ Minnesota (-160)
Colorado (+170) @ San Francisco (-180)
In the first game Jeremy Sowers is matched up against Carl Pavano. Sowers is a soft tossing left hander who has control issues. He really is not a major league pitcher, and I have yet to figure out why the Indians continue to give him opportunities. His K’s are way below the major league average at 3.69 and his walks are above the major league average at 3.61. He is also a fly ball pitcher. Not much to like here. Pavano is having an average season after being out most of the last 3 years due to injury. His indicators are pretty good and he has been throwing well over the last few months. He does occasionally get lit up, and that has really hurt his overall numbers. I doubt the Indians will light him up, and the Twins should be able to cross the plate a few times against Sowers.
In the second game Jason Hammel is matched up against Tim Lincecum. Hammel is turning into a solid middle of the rotation starter, and has been throwing well as of late. But I do not think he will out duel the rested Lincecum, who had his last start skipped due to a stiff lower back. Lincecum should have a little extra on his pitches and I really would not be surprised to see him go the distance in this must win game. The kid is so competitive that once he’s out there on the mound he will be fine.
Bet
$16 MIN -160
$36 SF -180
Sunday, August 9, 2009
No Action Last Night
Portfolio: $935 (1.5% return)
S&P 500: $1010 (9.7% return)
Today's Game
Minnesota (+110) @ Detriot (-120)
In the only game I like today Scott Baker is going up against Jarrod Washburn. Baker's 9-7 record and 4.59 ERA make it look like he is an average pitcher having an average season, but that's not the case. He has a solid 3.9 K/BB ratio and has shown improvement on his strikeout rate over the last 3 years. His walk rate of 1.91 BB/9 is one of the best in the majors. Baker was the victim of bad luck early on in the season with a low strand rate and high home run rate. He is a fly ball pitcher so he will allow his fair share of long balls, but not at the rate he was giving up earlier. Over his last 3 starts he is 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA. Pitching in the spacious Tigers ballpark will really benefit him today. Washburn on the other hand looks like he going out and dominating on a regular basis with an 8-7 and a 2.93 ERA. Well that's not the case as he has been the beneficiary of good luck. His strikeout and walk rate are right on his career averages and he is still a fly ball pitcher. What has helped him is his low hit rate of 7.48 compared to his 8.92 career average. It also seems he is getting a little lucky on strand rate. He is starting to come back to earth in his last 2 starts going 0-1 with a 5.11 ERA. I like the underdog Twins, with their ace on the mound, to take this series from the Tigers.
Bets
$20 MIN +110
Tuesday, June 30, 2009
Lincecum Throws A Gem
The two wins last night bumped my portfolio up $50. Both my portfolio and the S&P 500 were at $921 when I started last week.
Portfolio: $993 (7.8% return)
S&P 500: $927 (0.7% return)
Today's Games
Boston (-130) @ Baltimore (+110)
Minnesota (-140) @ Kansas City (+130)
San Francisco (+190) @ St. Louis (-200)
The first game has John Smoltz matched up against Rich Hill. Smoltz has had one start this year after coming back from injury are didn’t fare too well. He lasted 5 innings, giving up 5 earned runs on 7 hits against the lowly Nationals. 4 of those runs were given up in the first inning, and he really settled down after that. He did manage to strikeout 5 and only walk 1, proving that he still should have good stuff with good control. He was probably just tight and nervous in his first start for the Red Sox, his first game with a team other than the Braves in 20 years. Most of the young Orioles have never seen him before. Rich Hill is off to 3-2 start but with a bad 6.03 ERA. Hill has good stuff and can rack up strikeouts, 8.2 K/9, but can’t seem to control it, 5.79 BB/9. His walk rate is above his career average of 3.86 BB/9, but he’s not showing any signs of improving on that number. This is probably due to injury. The Red Sox offense should knock Hill out by the 6th inning as they have a patient lineup that doesn’t strikeout too much. At -130 the line is just enough to make me like the Red Sox and the veteran Smoltz.
The second game has Scott Baker going up against Brain Bannister. Baker is 5-6 with a 5.17 ERA, but is one of the most underrated pitchers in the game. He’s strikeout rate and walk rate are the best in his career, and his hit rate is normal. His 4.5 K/BB rate is one of the best in the majors. The long ball is what has been hurting him, mainly earlier in the season. He has already given up 17 homeruns in 87 innings compared to 20 in 172 innings last year, and he’s actually giving up fewer fly balls this year. Well in his last 4 starts he is 2-0 with a 3.62 ERA while only allowing 2 homeruns, so he seems to have that under control. And playing the Royals, he should not be too worried about giving up homeruns. Brian Bannister is about as average as they come with a 5-5 record and a 4.17 ERA. He doesn’t strikeout many, 5.45 K/9, doesn’t walk many, 2.9 BB/9, and is not a heavy ground ball pitcher. The better than average Twins offense should score a few off him, and that should be enough for Baker who has a chance to throw a gem tonight.
One more game I like today. Randy Johnson is going up against Chris Carpenter. Johnson is pitching really well as of late, going 4-1 with a 2.57 ERA in his last 7 starts. He still has some left in the tank as his strikeout rate, walk rate, and hit rate all are normal. The Giants have also been playing well as of late. You can see my analysis on Carpenter from 6/25. I still feel the same way about him. His hit rate is way too low and his strikeout rate is not where it used to be. He should not be putting up a 1.78 ERA. His control is still there, as his walk rate is the best of his career, but that shouldn’t matter too much as the Giants swing at everything. The Cardinals offense has gone cold the last couple games, so taking the Giants is a good value pick here.
Bets
$26 BOS -130
$28 MIN -140
$10 SF +190
Portfolio: $993 (7.8% return)
S&P 500: $927 (0.7% return)
Today's Games
Boston (-130) @ Baltimore (+110)
Minnesota (-140) @ Kansas City (+130)
San Francisco (+190) @ St. Louis (-200)
The first game has John Smoltz matched up against Rich Hill. Smoltz has had one start this year after coming back from injury are didn’t fare too well. He lasted 5 innings, giving up 5 earned runs on 7 hits against the lowly Nationals. 4 of those runs were given up in the first inning, and he really settled down after that. He did manage to strikeout 5 and only walk 1, proving that he still should have good stuff with good control. He was probably just tight and nervous in his first start for the Red Sox, his first game with a team other than the Braves in 20 years. Most of the young Orioles have never seen him before. Rich Hill is off to 3-2 start but with a bad 6.03 ERA. Hill has good stuff and can rack up strikeouts, 8.2 K/9, but can’t seem to control it, 5.79 BB/9. His walk rate is above his career average of 3.86 BB/9, but he’s not showing any signs of improving on that number. This is probably due to injury. The Red Sox offense should knock Hill out by the 6th inning as they have a patient lineup that doesn’t strikeout too much. At -130 the line is just enough to make me like the Red Sox and the veteran Smoltz.
The second game has Scott Baker going up against Brain Bannister. Baker is 5-6 with a 5.17 ERA, but is one of the most underrated pitchers in the game. He’s strikeout rate and walk rate are the best in his career, and his hit rate is normal. His 4.5 K/BB rate is one of the best in the majors. The long ball is what has been hurting him, mainly earlier in the season. He has already given up 17 homeruns in 87 innings compared to 20 in 172 innings last year, and he’s actually giving up fewer fly balls this year. Well in his last 4 starts he is 2-0 with a 3.62 ERA while only allowing 2 homeruns, so he seems to have that under control. And playing the Royals, he should not be too worried about giving up homeruns. Brian Bannister is about as average as they come with a 5-5 record and a 4.17 ERA. He doesn’t strikeout many, 5.45 K/9, doesn’t walk many, 2.9 BB/9, and is not a heavy ground ball pitcher. The better than average Twins offense should score a few off him, and that should be enough for Baker who has a chance to throw a gem tonight.
One more game I like today. Randy Johnson is going up against Chris Carpenter. Johnson is pitching really well as of late, going 4-1 with a 2.57 ERA in his last 7 starts. He still has some left in the tank as his strikeout rate, walk rate, and hit rate all are normal. The Giants have also been playing well as of late. You can see my analysis on Carpenter from 6/25. I still feel the same way about him. His hit rate is way too low and his strikeout rate is not where it used to be. He should not be putting up a 1.78 ERA. His control is still there, as his walk rate is the best of his career, but that shouldn’t matter too much as the Giants swing at everything. The Cardinals offense has gone cold the last couple games, so taking the Giants is a good value pick here.
Bets
$26 BOS -130
$28 MIN -140
$10 SF +190
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