The Red Sox almost dug out of the hole that Clay Buchholz put them in, losing 8-7 and leaving the tying run on second base. This is why is hard to bet at the end of the season.
Portfolio: $1081 (17.4% return)
S&P 500: $1061 (15.2% return)
Today’s Games
Minnesota (-130) @ Detroit (+110)
In the only game today Carl Pavano is matched up against Eddie Bonine. Pavano has been a solid acquisition for the Twins and has eaten up the Tigers this year going 4-0 with a 1.69 ERA in 5 starts. He has 22 strikeouts to only 1 walk in those starts. He has been keeping his team in the game in as of late and his indicators are right where they should be for him. Bonine is making just his 4th start this year and has a 2.31 ERA in his last 2 starts. His indicators tell me he’s nothing special and he is getting lucky with a low hit rate. He doesn’t strikeout enough batters and walks too many to sustain a low ERA. I like the Twins to take this must win game with a veteran pitcher who has had success in big games. At -130 I believe this is a good value play.
Bets
$26 MIN -130
Showing posts with label carl pavano. Show all posts
Showing posts with label carl pavano. Show all posts
Wednesday, September 30, 2009
Monday, September 14, 2009
No Action Yesterday
It’s nice to see the NFL season starting again. I might bet a couple games next week now that I have a little feel for the teams. The one thing to remember about the NFL is that teams are not as good or bad as you think. I generally like to bet on teams that looked horrible the week before or against media over-hyped teams. A good example of this theory was the Jets/Texans game yesterday. The Jets were starting a rookie on the road while the Texans were supposed to have a high powered offense, so the -5 line seemed a little low. I bet Vegas made a killing on that game.
Portfolio: $1092 (18.6% return)
S&P 500: $1043 (13.2% return)
Today’s Games
Cleveland (+140) @ Minnesota (-160)
Colorado (+170) @ San Francisco (-180)
In the first game Jeremy Sowers is matched up against Carl Pavano. Sowers is a soft tossing left hander who has control issues. He really is not a major league pitcher, and I have yet to figure out why the Indians continue to give him opportunities. His K’s are way below the major league average at 3.69 and his walks are above the major league average at 3.61. He is also a fly ball pitcher. Not much to like here. Pavano is having an average season after being out most of the last 3 years due to injury. His indicators are pretty good and he has been throwing well over the last few months. He does occasionally get lit up, and that has really hurt his overall numbers. I doubt the Indians will light him up, and the Twins should be able to cross the plate a few times against Sowers.
In the second game Jason Hammel is matched up against Tim Lincecum. Hammel is turning into a solid middle of the rotation starter, and has been throwing well as of late. But I do not think he will out duel the rested Lincecum, who had his last start skipped due to a stiff lower back. Lincecum should have a little extra on his pitches and I really would not be surprised to see him go the distance in this must win game. The kid is so competitive that once he’s out there on the mound he will be fine.
Bet
$16 MIN -160
$36 SF -180
Portfolio: $1092 (18.6% return)
S&P 500: $1043 (13.2% return)
Today’s Games
Cleveland (+140) @ Minnesota (-160)
Colorado (+170) @ San Francisco (-180)
In the first game Jeremy Sowers is matched up against Carl Pavano. Sowers is a soft tossing left hander who has control issues. He really is not a major league pitcher, and I have yet to figure out why the Indians continue to give him opportunities. His K’s are way below the major league average at 3.69 and his walks are above the major league average at 3.61. He is also a fly ball pitcher. Not much to like here. Pavano is having an average season after being out most of the last 3 years due to injury. His indicators are pretty good and he has been throwing well over the last few months. He does occasionally get lit up, and that has really hurt his overall numbers. I doubt the Indians will light him up, and the Twins should be able to cross the plate a few times against Sowers.
In the second game Jason Hammel is matched up against Tim Lincecum. Hammel is turning into a solid middle of the rotation starter, and has been throwing well as of late. But I do not think he will out duel the rested Lincecum, who had his last start skipped due to a stiff lower back. Lincecum should have a little extra on his pitches and I really would not be surprised to see him go the distance in this must win game. The kid is so competitive that once he’s out there on the mound he will be fine.
Bet
$16 MIN -160
$36 SF -180
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