Boston and Colorado Take Care of Business

My portfolio gained $40 as Jon Lester and Jason Hammel pitched solid and both teams pulled away at the end of the game to win easily. I'm staying away from the NFL this week as it is still way too unpredictable. I have also decided to list my winning percentage for the first time today. If you have been following my advice and using my conservative money management approach then you should be doing pretty well.

Portfolio: $1169 (27% return)

S&P 500: $1068 (16% return)

Overall Record: 48-33 (59%)

Favorites: 34-18 (65%)

Underdogs: 15-14 (52%)

Today’s Games

Chicago Cubs (+140) @ St. Louis (-160)

Carlos Zambrano is matched up against Adam Wainwright. Zambrano is an erratic pitcher who has not been throwing well lately. While his strikeouts are up, so are his walks and hits. He has also not fared well against the Cardinals this year. Wainwright is making a bid for the National League CY Young award and has been on top of his game in his last 2 starts. His indicators tell me that he will keep it up. He is 3-0 with a 2.43 ERA against the Cubs in 4 starts this year and has an ERA of 1.89 at home. This is ESPN’s Sunday night game of the week and Wainwright will have the chance to show everyone how good he has been as the Cardinals should complete the sweep.

Bet

$32 STL -160

The Tribe Stays Hot

The Indians completed the sweep of the Mariners yesterday to bring my portfolio up $20.

Portfolio: $979 (6.3% return)
S&P 500: $979 (6.3% return)

Today’s Games

Houston (+130) @ Chicago Cubs (-150)
Cleveland (+140) @ Los Angeles Angels (-160)

In the first game Wandy Rodriguez is matched up against Carlos Zambrano. Rodriguez is having a solid season and you can see my analysis on him from 7/16. Not much has changed as he is 3-0 with a 0.41 ERA while only walking 3 batters in his last 3 starts. Zambrano is having a pretty normal year for him. His strikeout and walk rates are right on career averages, but his hit rate is up due to a drop in ground balls. He is giving up home runs at a lower rate than normal, but that should not continue as his ground ball ratio has really dropped and is the lowest in his career by far. Even though Houston is coming off 2 straight losses while the Cubs are coming off a 3 game sweep, I look for the Astros to right their ship in a battle of number ones.

In the second game Carl Pavano is matched up against Joe Saunders. Pavano has good indicators, but seems to be the victim of bad luck. His strikeout rate is the highest of his career and his walk rate is the second lowest of his career. He is also a slight ground ball pitcher and his ratio is right on his career average. What has hurt him is his high hit rate and home run rate. This could be an indicator that he is losing his stuff, but his strikeout rate tells me this is just bad luck. Saunders doesn’t have great stuff and mainly gets by on the fact that he is a lefty. His strikeout rate is low at 4.94 K/9 while his walk rate has increased this year by 41%. He is also a slight ground ball pitcher who’s right on his career average. The Indians have been hitting the heck out of the ball lately and are facing their 9th left handed starter in a row in Saunders, so he shouldn’t throw their rhythm off. I doubt this will be a low scoring game and I think the Indians have more firepower.

Bets

$20 HOU +130
$20 CLE +140

Games Start Back Up Today

The S&P 500 continued to makes its run during the All-Star break.

Portfolio: $1018 (10.5% return)
S&P 500: $931 (1.1% return)

Today's Games

Chicago Cubs (-120) @ Washington Nationals (+110)
Houston (+140) @ LA Dodgers (-150)

Rich Harden is matched up against John Lannan in the first game I like tonight. Harden strikes out a lot of batters, but also walks his fair share. He is striking out batters at a high rate of 10.09 K/9 this year, and that is up a little from his career average but down a little from last year. He is walking a little more batters this year, but his last 3 starts are right in line with his career average. The one thing that has hurt Harden this year is his hit rate. He is giving up 9.49 H/9, and 15.43 H/9 over his last 3 starts. His career average is 7.33, and his ground ball to fly ball ratio is right on his career average. Harden has also been hurt by the long ball, giving up way more than his average. Good thing for him that Washington is one of the worst home run hitting ballparks in the majors and the Nationals are a below average home run hitting team. All those indicators tell me that Harden is the victim of bad luck and his numbers should start to turn around. Lannan is a lefty that gets a lot of ground balls. He does not strikeout many, and his strikeout rate of 4.02 K/9 is way down from last years rate of 5.79 K/9. Over his last 3 starts his rate is even worse at 2.22 K/9. He doesn't walk many and has shown good control over his last 3 starts. His hits are up a little, but his ground ball rate is down a little. I think the right handed heavy Cubs at -120 are a pretty good play here.

In the second game, Wandy Rodriguez is going up against Randy Wolf. Both lefties have put together solid seasons, with Rodriguez breaking out and Wolf reemerging. Rodriguez’s strikeout, walk, and hit rates are basically the same as last years, and he has really improved his ground ball rate. His rates indicate he’s a solid pitcher, and he is 2-0 with a 2.05 ERA in his last 3 starts. Wolf has also been pitching well as of late, going 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA in his last 3 starts. His strikeout rate is little down a little from his career average, but so is his walk rate. The one thing that has helped him out this year is his hit rate. It’s at 7.93 for the year compared to his career average of 8.71. He hasn’t had a hit rate under 8 since 2003, and his current rate is probably unsustainable due to the fact that his ground ball rate is right on his career average. The Astros have been struggling to score runs this year while the Dodgers have the second best offense in the National League. Even with that being said, I think the Astros at +140 are a solid play with Rodriguez pitching.

Bets

$36 CHC -120
$20 HOU +140

I will be on the road all day tomorrow so if I post it'll probably be right before game time.

KC Barely Scores Enough

The Royals ended up winning 3-2, with Greinke pitching well and Morton struggling. A rain delay caused Greinke to only last 6 1/3 innings. Otherwise, he probably would have went the distance. I gained a solid $30.

Portfolio: $943 (2.4% return)
S&P 500: $919 (-0.2% return)

Today's Games

San Francisco (-130) @ St. Louis (+110)
Chicago Cubs (-110) @ Pittsburgh (-110)

Tim Lincecum is matched up against Brad Thompson. I'm not sure why the Giants are not favored by more, since they have a better record and have one of the best pitchers in baseball going up against an average pitcher at best. Lincecum is dominant, averaging 10.63 K/9 while only allowing 2.4 BB/9. Mix that in with the fact that he gets more ground ball than fly ball outs, which means he is less likely to give up extra base hits. In his last 3 starts he's thrown 26 innings while striking out 29 and only walking 3. He's in peak form. Thompson is a heavy ground ball pitcher who pitches to contact having only struck out 13 batters in 42 innings, and none in his last 12. He has good control in only walking 2.36 batters per 9, so the free swinging Giants probably won't draw a single walk off him. He's giving up the major league average of about a hit per inning, but that shouldn't last as that is about a hit per inning below his career average. I think the Giants are a no brainer here, and I think the line isn't more in their favor because of the DeRosa trade. A trade usually brings up the moral of a team and they play better, but I don't think that will be the case tonight since they are going up against Lincecum. Should be interesting to see the Pujols vs. Lincecum battles. I'm going to bet the max I can (5%).

In the second game, Rich Harden is matched up against Zach Duke. Harden has nasty stuff with a K/9 rate of 10, but walks a lot of batters with a 4.5 BB/9 rate. He also throws a lot of pitches which leads to a lot of early exits. His strikeout rate is in line with his career average but the reason why he has a 4-4 record with a 4.95 ERA is due to his walk rate being up along with his hit rate. Harden’s walk rate is up 0.60 BB/9 and his hit rate of 8.10 per 9 is almost 1 hit per inning more than his career average. This may be due to the fact that he is no longer a ground ball pitcher. Wrigley is not a good place for fly ball pitchers and this shows with a home ERA of 6.31 compared to a road ERA of 2.96. Good thing this game is at PNC. Zach Duke on the other hand is a strike throwing ground ball pitcher who won’t miss a lot of bats. Duke is having a good year with an 8-5 record and a 3.09 ERA, but that shouldn’t last. His strikeout rate and walk rate are normal, but his hit rate is 8.57 per 9 compared to his 10.65 per 9 career average. This is odd given the fact that his groundball rate is the lowest of his career. Also, a move to the mean has already started as he has given up 29 hits in his last 26 innings. The thing that Duke has going for him is that he is a lefty, but with the Cubs right handed heavy lineup I think they are in line to score a few runs tonight.

Bets

$39 SF -130
$22 CHC -110