No Action Yesterday

Portfolio: $943 (2.4% return)

S&P 500: $1080 (17.3% return)

Today's Games

Los Angeles Angels (+170) @ New York Yankees (-190)

In Game 6 of the ALCS Joe Saunders is matched up against Andy Pettitte in what should be a great game. Saunders pitched well against the Yankees earlier in the series while Pettitte labored a little. The Angels have been making uncharacteristic mistakes and are having problems scoring runs. The Yankees have been playing loose and seem to be having fun. This game will be a little different and I would not be surprised to see the Yankees a little tighter than normal. I think the Yankees have just a slightly better chance to win, but with the current odds I believe the Angels are a good play.

Bets

$10 LAA +170

No Action Yesterday

Portfolio: $934 (1.4% return)
S&P 500: $1097 (19.1% return)

Today’s Games

Los Angeles Angels (+150) @ New York Yankees (-170)

After a quiet week I finally see a game I like. John Lackey is matched up against CC Sabathia in Game 1 of the ALCS. Lackey struggled down the stretch of the regular season but pitched great against the Red Sox in the ALDS. His strikeouts and walks were down at the end of the season and in his start against the Red Sox. The strikeouts being down worries me a little but less walks are a good sign. He is a big game pitcher who has had success in the postseason throughout his career. He definitely will not go out and lay an egg. Sabathia was dominant down the stretch of the regular season and dominated the Twins in the ALDS. Believe it or not that was his first dominant postseason start of his career. Being an Indians fan I have seen him pitch most of his career and I can tell you that he is not a big game pitcher. Even in the regular season if there was a big game he wouldn’t deliver. I was actually not that upset when the Indians traded him last year because I knew he has never won the big game and I did not see him turning it around. In all of his previous postseason starts he clams up and loses his control. In 2007 he walked 37 batters in 241 innings, but in the postseason that year he walked 13 in 15 1/3 innings. The Indians probably would have won the World Series that year if CC was somewhat decent. The Angels have a veteran lineup that is aware of CC’s postseason struggles and will make him work. If CC believes this is a big game then he will struggle. I think the Angels at +150 are a great value play. I’m betting my maximum amount of $40, or 4.3%.

Bets

$40 LAA +150

Rough Day, 0-2 and Down $50

My free fall continues, but things will turn around.

Portfolio: $956 (3.8% return)

S&P 500: $1058 (14.9% return)

Today's Games

Boston (-110) @ Los Angeles Angels (-110)

In the only game I like today Jon Lester is matched up against John Lackey. Lester is probably the best left handed starter in the playoffs and he has been dominant in the second half on the season. He has had one bad start in the last 2 months and his indicators are really strong. Lackey is a solid veteran pitcher who has struggled lately. His hit rate is up and it has been slightly up all year which means he may be losing a little, but not too much to get worried. I like Boston to take game 1 as Lester is the more stable option.

Bets

$22 BOS

2-0, Up $30

Not a bad night. That Patriots/Bills game last night was crazy. Both football games last night once again showed how unpredictable the first week of the season is, and why I stayed away from it.

Portfolio: $1122 (21.8% return)
S&P 500: $1049 (13.9% return)

By looking at the chart below you can see that my returns compared to the S&P 500 are more volatile, but that I have been outpacing it most of the time. This is just the beginning, spread the word to people that you think would find this quick daily read interesting. Once baseball season ends there will be less posts, and I'm not sure how much NBA I will get into. But you can expect football picks and most likely some college basketball.



Today’s Games

Kansas City (+150) @ Detroit (-170)
Los Angeles Angels (-110) @ Boston (-110)

In the first game today Robinson Tejeda is matched up against Jarrod Washburn. Tejeda has not allowed a run since becoming a starter, a span of 13 innings over 2 starts. His stuff has been electric and he has really cut down on his walks. The Tigers couldn’t touch him in his last start. Washburn has underachieved for the Tigers after the trade, but has fared well against the Royals this year. He has been getting tagged as of late and his indicators point to him keeping it up. I like the Royals in a good value play here as this game should be a pick’em.

In the second game today John Lackey is matched up against Diasuke Matsuzaka. The Angels ace has been on top of his game lately and should keep it up in what will most likely be a Division Series matchup. Lackey is a big game pitcher who will be up for this game. Matsuzaka has not pitched in the majors since June. He throws way too many pitches and walks too many. He will not last past the 6th against a good Angels team. I’m not sure why the line is even, but I’ll take the Angels at this value.

Bet

$10 KC +150
$22 LAA -110

No Games Yesterday

Portfolio: $915 (-0.7% return)
S&P 500: $1007 (9.3 % return)

Today’s Game

Tampa Bay (-120) @ Los Angeles Angels (-110)

In the only game I like today David Price is going up against Ervin Santana. Price struggled with control when he was first called up, but has fixed that lately as he has only walked 4 in his last 22 innings. His strikeouts are there and if he can keep the walks down he will be solid. Santana has struggled in his injury shortened season and does not have the control he had last year. His strikeouts are also down and it looks he has lost some of his stuff. I look for Tampa Bay to jump on the struggling Santana.

Bets

$12 TB -120

Astros Lose, Indians Win

I split last night to gain $8, and that’s what I like about baseball. I’m also outpacing the S&P 500 again.

Portfolio: $987 (7.2% return)
S&P 500: $982 (6.6% return)

Today’s Game

Cleveland (+180) @ Los Angeles Angels (-210)

In the only game I like today David Huff is matched up against Jered Weaver. The inexperienced Huff is pretty erratic, but has shown good control in his first stint in the majors. He doesn’t have the stuff to pile up strikeouts and doesn’t throw a heavy ball, but he is a lefty. Weaver is having a solid year with a 10-3 record and 3.57 ERA. He has good control and strikes out a little more than the league average. He has a low hit rate, but this is starting to correct up since he is giving up more fly balls than his career average. Both pitchers have struggled over their last 3 starts, and I look for this to be another slug fest. The Indians have been hitting the cover off the ball lately as they racked up 20 hits last night. At +180, I think it’s a solid play to put a little on a team swinging the bat as good as the Indians have.

Bet

$10 CLE +180

The Tribe Stays Hot

The Indians completed the sweep of the Mariners yesterday to bring my portfolio up $20.

Portfolio: $979 (6.3% return)
S&P 500: $979 (6.3% return)

Today’s Games

Houston (+130) @ Chicago Cubs (-150)
Cleveland (+140) @ Los Angeles Angels (-160)

In the first game Wandy Rodriguez is matched up against Carlos Zambrano. Rodriguez is having a solid season and you can see my analysis on him from 7/16. Not much has changed as he is 3-0 with a 0.41 ERA while only walking 3 batters in his last 3 starts. Zambrano is having a pretty normal year for him. His strikeout and walk rates are right on career averages, but his hit rate is up due to a drop in ground balls. He is giving up home runs at a lower rate than normal, but that should not continue as his ground ball ratio has really dropped and is the lowest in his career by far. Even though Houston is coming off 2 straight losses while the Cubs are coming off a 3 game sweep, I look for the Astros to right their ship in a battle of number ones.

In the second game Carl Pavano is matched up against Joe Saunders. Pavano has good indicators, but seems to be the victim of bad luck. His strikeout rate is the highest of his career and his walk rate is the second lowest of his career. He is also a slight ground ball pitcher and his ratio is right on his career average. What has hurt him is his high hit rate and home run rate. This could be an indicator that he is losing his stuff, but his strikeout rate tells me this is just bad luck. Saunders doesn’t have great stuff and mainly gets by on the fact that he is a lefty. His strikeout rate is low at 4.94 K/9 while his walk rate has increased this year by 41%. He is also a slight ground ball pitcher who’s right on his career average. The Indians have been hitting the heck out of the ball lately and are facing their 9th left handed starter in a row in Saunders, so he shouldn’t throw their rhythm off. I doubt this will be a low scoring game and I think the Indians have more firepower.

Bets

$20 HOU +130
$20 CLE +140

First Win

That was an easy $44 last night, with the Rockies easily winning 11-1. Here's the updated financial situation. Remember, this is not real money, just a simulation to see how much I can outgain the stock market.

Betting: $965 (4.8% return)
S&P 500: 893 (-3% return)

Today's Picks

Two late game's look good tonight, San Francisco (-130) @ Oakland (+110) and Colorado (+100) @ LA Angels (-120).

Tim Lincecum is going up against the rookie Vin Mazzaro for the second time this year. The Giants won with Lincecum throwing a complete game shutout a couple weeks ago. Lincecum is the best pitcher in all of baseball in my opinion, with 3 plus pitches he can throw at any time. He's a high strikeout pitcher that gets a good amount of goundballs, pretty rare. Mazzaro is a good prospect that has shown he is hard to hit. Not a big strikeout pitcher, but has decent control. This is right up Lincecum's alley with Oakland being a poor hitting team and their ballpark being a pitcher's park. The Giants should win a low scoring affair tonight with Lincecum possibly throwing another gem.

Ubaldo Jimenez is matched up against another rookie Sean O'Sullivan in the second game. Jimenez is a heavy ground ball pitcher that throws hard. He's not really a strikeout pitcher, but if his stuff is good, he can miss some bats. O'Sullivan is a decent prospect that has pretty good control for a youngster. Not a big strikeout pitcher, but has shown good K/BB ratio's in the past. He has struggled in the minors this year going 6-4 with a 5.88 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP while splitting time in AA and AAA. The Rockies are on fire lately and should jump on the righty O'Sullivan early with their lefty dominant lineup.

I like the veterans, if you can call Lincecum and Jimenez veterans, to previal against the good prospects in both games. I like the Rockies hitting and the Athletics lack of hitting.

Bets

$39 SF -130
$30 COL +100