Well the Yankees look like they will be heading to the World Series as they are playing loose and with confidence. The Phillies have a chance to wrap up their series tonight at home with their ace on the mound.
Portfolio: $923 (0.2% return)
S&P 500: $1091 (18.5% return)
Today's Games
Los Angeles Dodgers (+130) @ Philadelphia (-150)
With the Phillies up 3 games to 1 Vicente Padilla is matched up against Cole Hamels. Padilla has been a real find for the Dodgers late in the season and has pitched really well this postseason, but his current success is not sustainable. Hamels has uncharacteristically struggled this postseason but he and the Phillies smell blood and should put the Dodgers away tonight at home.
Bets
$30 PHI -150
Showing posts with label los angeles dodgers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label los angeles dodgers. Show all posts
Wednesday, October 21, 2009
Monday, October 19, 2009
2-1, Up $9
I was surprised the Giants/Saints game didn’t live up to the hype as the Saints dominated from the start, but the other big matchup between the Ravens and Vikings was pretty good. The Jets continued their freefall after ESPN basically anointed them a top team after their 3-0 start. Sanchez really struggled and maybe he really did need another year in college as Pete Carroll said last year. The Eagles laid their typical egg against a team they should blow out, and I put that all on McNabb. The Bengals were outplayed from the start in an obvious let down game. I have no clue what happened to Seattle, but that’s probably the product of Hasselbeck not getting regular reps in practice.
Portfolio: $903 (-2% return)
S&P 500: $1088 (18.1% return)
Today’s Games
Los Angeles Dodgers (+120) @ Philadelphia (-130)
In Game 4 of the NLCS Randy Wolf is matched up against Joe Blanton. Wolf has been pitching bad for at least a month now and I don’t see it turning around. He was lucky not to let up more runs and get the loss against the Cardinals in Game 1 of the NLDS. Blanton struggled down the stretch as his control was bad, but he hasn’t started in a couple weeks and his arm should be fresh. This might be a high scoring game and I like the Phillies to score more runs.
Bets
$26 PHI -130
Portfolio: $903 (-2% return)
S&P 500: $1088 (18.1% return)
Today’s Games
Los Angeles Dodgers (+120) @ Philadelphia (-130)
In Game 4 of the NLCS Randy Wolf is matched up against Joe Blanton. Wolf has been pitching bad for at least a month now and I don’t see it turning around. He was lucky not to let up more runs and get the loss against the Cardinals in Game 1 of the NLDS. Blanton struggled down the stretch as his control was bad, but he hasn’t started in a couple weeks and his arm should be fresh. This might be a high scoring game and I like the Phillies to score more runs.
Bets
$26 PHI -130
Wednesday, October 7, 2009
Great Game Last Night
The Tigers/Twins game last night was one of the better baseball games I’ve seen in a while and that got me pumped up for the playoffs.
Portfolio: $1006 (9.2% return)
S&P 500: $1055 (14.5% return)
Today’s Games
Colorado (+120) @ Philadelphia (-140)
St. Louis (-150) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (+130)
In the first game Ubaldo Jimenez is matched up against Cliff Lee. Jimenez went 15-12 with a 3.47 ERA this season and is a very unique pitcher. He is a flamer thrower and a heavy ground ball pitcher. I do not believe anyone has the combined strikeout and ground ball ratios he does. Over his last 4 starts he is fanning 12.35 batters per nine and that is about the highest you’ll see from any pitcher. By being a heavy ground ball pitcher he keeps the ball in the park, giving up only 13 homeruns in 218 innings. His problem is walks, and he has struggled with those lately. His walk rate per nine over his last 4 starts is 4.78 compared to his 3.51 season average. Jimenez also was also successful in the postseason 2 years ago, posting a 2.25 ERA in 16 innings. Lee was unhittable in his first month with the Phillies but has been pretty average as of late. His indicators are strong, but he has struggled with a high hit rate all season and that’s not good when facing a really good hitting lineup. Lee has no previous postseason experience and really hasn’t pitched in too many big games in his career. Some pitchers take off running in these situations, but most have a learning curve. I look for the Rockies to take game 1 as Jimenez should be able to take away the Phillies biggest strength, the long ball.
In the second game Chris Carpenter is matched up against Randy Wolf. Carpenter will probably win the National League CY Young and has only had one hiccup in the second half. His indicators look solid so he should give his team a good chance to win. His career postseason numbers are really good, going 5-1 with a 2.53 ERA. Wolf has been the Dodgers most consistent starter all year long. He improved his walk rate, but what really helped him was a low hit rate. His low hit rate was not caused by an increased ground ball rate so it was most likely due to better defense, a new pitch and luck. Over his last 4 starts his indicators are really weak even though he posted a 3.33 ERA. His ERA is will rise if he continues to pitch like he has been, and that’s not good news when facing the Cardinals and Chris Carpenter. Wolf has no postseason experience and looks to be tiring down the stretch. I like the Cardinals to win game 1 pretty easy.
Bets
$20 COL +120
$30 STL -150
Portfolio: $1006 (9.2% return)
S&P 500: $1055 (14.5% return)
Today’s Games
Colorado (+120) @ Philadelphia (-140)
St. Louis (-150) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (+130)
In the first game Ubaldo Jimenez is matched up against Cliff Lee. Jimenez went 15-12 with a 3.47 ERA this season and is a very unique pitcher. He is a flamer thrower and a heavy ground ball pitcher. I do not believe anyone has the combined strikeout and ground ball ratios he does. Over his last 4 starts he is fanning 12.35 batters per nine and that is about the highest you’ll see from any pitcher. By being a heavy ground ball pitcher he keeps the ball in the park, giving up only 13 homeruns in 218 innings. His problem is walks, and he has struggled with those lately. His walk rate per nine over his last 4 starts is 4.78 compared to his 3.51 season average. Jimenez also was also successful in the postseason 2 years ago, posting a 2.25 ERA in 16 innings. Lee was unhittable in his first month with the Phillies but has been pretty average as of late. His indicators are strong, but he has struggled with a high hit rate all season and that’s not good when facing a really good hitting lineup. Lee has no previous postseason experience and really hasn’t pitched in too many big games in his career. Some pitchers take off running in these situations, but most have a learning curve. I look for the Rockies to take game 1 as Jimenez should be able to take away the Phillies biggest strength, the long ball.
In the second game Chris Carpenter is matched up against Randy Wolf. Carpenter will probably win the National League CY Young and has only had one hiccup in the second half. His indicators look solid so he should give his team a good chance to win. His career postseason numbers are really good, going 5-1 with a 2.53 ERA. Wolf has been the Dodgers most consistent starter all year long. He improved his walk rate, but what really helped him was a low hit rate. His low hit rate was not caused by an increased ground ball rate so it was most likely due to better defense, a new pitch and luck. Over his last 4 starts his indicators are really weak even though he posted a 3.33 ERA. His ERA is will rise if he continues to pitch like he has been, and that’s not good news when facing the Cardinals and Chris Carpenter. Wolf has no postseason experience and looks to be tiring down the stretch. I like the Cardinals to win game 1 pretty easy.
Bets
$20 COL +120
$30 STL -150
Tuesday, September 22, 2009
No Action Yesterday
Portfolio: $1137 (23.5% return)
S&P 500: $1065 (15.6% return)
Today’s Games
Los Angeles Dodgers (-200) @ Washington (+170)
Boston (+130) @ Kansas City (-150)
In the first game Hiroki Kuroda is matched up against Livan Hernandez. Kuroda is a control pitcher who gets a few more ground balls than fly balls. He is not a strikeout pitcher but hitters struggle to find the sweet spot against him. Overall he’s a solid number 2 or 3 starter who has been pitching well lately. He’s 2-1 with a 2.84 ERA over his last 3 starts and his indicators are really strong. The soft tossing veteran Hernandez mainly relies on deception as he really does not have one strong indicator. This is most likely the reason why he is 8-11 with a 5.22 ERA this year. He has been decent his last 2 starts, going 1-1 with a 2.70, and that is exactly the reason why I like the Dodgers. Kuroda is on top of his game while Hernandez is due for a let down against the best team in the National League.
In the second game Paul Byrd is matched up against Zack Greinke. The veteran Byrd is similar to Livan Hernandez in the fact that he relies on the deception. The difference between the two is Byrd rarely gives up the walk, and that is why he has been better the last few years. Byrd has not been impressive in his brief time with the Red Sox as he is handing out about twice as much free passes compared to the past 6 years and batters and hitting him hard. Greinke is fine after leaving early in his last start due to being hit with a line drive in the elbow. He has been on top of his game lately and looks to add to his case for the American League CY Young award. Soft tossers like Byrd generally struggle against inexperienced hitters so the Royals should be able to put up a few runs early. Greinke should continue to roll and an impressive performance against a good hitting Red Sox team will definitely secure more votes.
Bets
$40 LAD -200
$30 KC -150
S&P 500: $1065 (15.6% return)
Today’s Games
Los Angeles Dodgers (-200) @ Washington (+170)
Boston (+130) @ Kansas City (-150)
In the first game Hiroki Kuroda is matched up against Livan Hernandez. Kuroda is a control pitcher who gets a few more ground balls than fly balls. He is not a strikeout pitcher but hitters struggle to find the sweet spot against him. Overall he’s a solid number 2 or 3 starter who has been pitching well lately. He’s 2-1 with a 2.84 ERA over his last 3 starts and his indicators are really strong. The soft tossing veteran Hernandez mainly relies on deception as he really does not have one strong indicator. This is most likely the reason why he is 8-11 with a 5.22 ERA this year. He has been decent his last 2 starts, going 1-1 with a 2.70, and that is exactly the reason why I like the Dodgers. Kuroda is on top of his game while Hernandez is due for a let down against the best team in the National League.
In the second game Paul Byrd is matched up against Zack Greinke. The veteran Byrd is similar to Livan Hernandez in the fact that he relies on the deception. The difference between the two is Byrd rarely gives up the walk, and that is why he has been better the last few years. Byrd has not been impressive in his brief time with the Red Sox as he is handing out about twice as much free passes compared to the past 6 years and batters and hitting him hard. Greinke is fine after leaving early in his last start due to being hit with a line drive in the elbow. He has been on top of his game lately and looks to add to his case for the American League CY Young award. Soft tossers like Byrd generally struggle against inexperienced hitters so the Royals should be able to put up a few runs early. Greinke should continue to roll and an impressive performance against a good hitting Red Sox team will definitely secure more votes.
Bets
$40 LAD -200
$30 KC -150
Wednesday, August 19, 2009
No Action Last Night
Portfolio: $1037 (12.6% return)
S&P 500: $990 (7.5% return)
Today’s Game
St. Louis (+110) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-130)
In the only game I like today Adam Wainwright is matched up against Clayton Kershaw in a battle between two sub 3 ERA’s. Wainwright is having a great season and has been really good lately, going 2-1 with a 1.31 ERA in his last 3, and it looks legit. He’s not walking anybody, his hits are normal, and his strikeouts are normal. Kershaw is also having a great season and is pitching well lately, going 2-0 with a 2.70 ERA in his last 4, but it doesn’t look to hold. He has been walking way too many, 5.06 BB/9 for the year, and his hit rate is way too low but seems to be turning around lately. I like the battle tested Wainwright in the rubber game between these two solid teams.
Bet
$20 STL +110
S&P 500: $990 (7.5% return)
Today’s Game
St. Louis (+110) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-130)
In the only game I like today Adam Wainwright is matched up against Clayton Kershaw in a battle between two sub 3 ERA’s. Wainwright is having a great season and has been really good lately, going 2-1 with a 1.31 ERA in his last 3, and it looks legit. He’s not walking anybody, his hits are normal, and his strikeouts are normal. Kershaw is also having a great season and is pitching well lately, going 2-0 with a 2.70 ERA in his last 4, but it doesn’t look to hold. He has been walking way too many, 5.06 BB/9 for the year, and his hit rate is way too low but seems to be turning around lately. I like the battle tested Wainwright in the rubber game between these two solid teams.
Bet
$20 STL +110
Monday, August 17, 2009
No Action Yesterday
I made a pretty good comeback over the last few days, going 7-1 and gaining $114.
Portfolio: $1017 (10.4% return)
S&P 500: $1004 (9% return)
Portfolio: $1017 (10.4% return)
S&P 500: $1004 (9% return)
Today’s Game
St. Louis (-170) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (+150)
In the only game I like today Chris Carpenter is matched up against Charlie Haeger. Carpenter is having a great season after missing the last 2 due to injury. He is 12-3 with a 2.27 ERA. His ERA may be a little low due to a slight drop in strikeouts and a little lower hit rate than normal, but he’s still legit. Haeger, who is making his second career start, has struggled in his brief time in the majors over the last 3 years. The Cardinals are playing well and are winners of four in a row so they should have no problem scoring enough runs for Carpenter who should be solid.
Bet
$34 STL -170
St. Louis (-170) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (+150)
In the only game I like today Chris Carpenter is matched up against Charlie Haeger. Carpenter is having a great season after missing the last 2 due to injury. He is 12-3 with a 2.27 ERA. His ERA may be a little low due to a slight drop in strikeouts and a little lower hit rate than normal, but he’s still legit. Haeger, who is making his second career start, has struggled in his brief time in the majors over the last 3 years. The Cardinals are playing well and are winners of four in a row so they should have no problem scoring enough runs for Carpenter who should be solid.
Bet
$34 STL -170
Saturday, August 15, 2009
Swept All 3 Again, Up $60
Another great night and I passed the S&P 500.
Portfolio: $1043 (13.2% return)
S&P 500: $1004 (9% return)
Today's Game
Los Angeles Dodgers (-130) @ Arizona (+110)
In the only game I like today Hiroki Kuroda is matched up against Doug Davis. Kuroda is a control pitcher who gets some ground balls and misses an average amount of bats. He has been on his game lately going 2-0 with a 2.96 ERA, and it looks legit. The lefty Davis is a crafty pitcher who walks a little too many. He has been the beneficiary of good luck as hit hit and strand rates are not sustainable. I like the Dodgers at -130 as they light up Davis earlier in the year and Kuroda is throwing well.
Bet
$26 LAD -130
Portfolio: $1043 (13.2% return)
S&P 500: $1004 (9% return)
Today's Game
Los Angeles Dodgers (-130) @ Arizona (+110)
In the only game I like today Hiroki Kuroda is matched up against Doug Davis. Kuroda is a control pitcher who gets some ground balls and misses an average amount of bats. He has been on his game lately going 2-0 with a 2.96 ERA, and it looks legit. The lefty Davis is a crafty pitcher who walks a little too many. He has been the beneficiary of good luck as hit hit and strand rates are not sustainable. I like the Dodgers at -130 as they light up Davis earlier in the year and Kuroda is throwing well.
Bet
$26 LAD -130
Wednesday, August 12, 2009
My Losing Ways Continue
The Rays lost 6-0 as Ervin Santana threw a 3 hit gem. On the positive side I only bet $12.
Portfolio: $903 (-2% return)
S&P 500: $994 (7.9% return)
Today's Game
Los Angeles Dodgers (+180) @ San Francisco Giants (-190)
I'm going with a safe one today to get back on the winning track. Journey man Jeff Weaver is matched up against Tim Lincecum. The Dodgers won the last 2 nights and Lincecum will make sure the Giants don't get swept by the division leader because that's what top ace's do. Weaver is nothing special and the Giants should have no problem scoring.
Bet
$38 SF -190
Portfolio: $903 (-2% return)
S&P 500: $994 (7.9% return)
Today's Game
Los Angeles Dodgers (+180) @ San Francisco Giants (-190)
I'm going with a safe one today to get back on the winning track. Journey man Jeff Weaver is matched up against Tim Lincecum. The Dodgers won the last 2 nights and Lincecum will make sure the Giants don't get swept by the division leader because that's what top ace's do. Weaver is nothing special and the Giants should have no problem scoring.
Bet
$38 SF -190
Friday, July 24, 2009
S&P 500 Gaining
The S&P 500 gained $22 yesterday to distance itself from my portfolio.
Portfolio: $931 (1.1% return)
S&P 500: $976 (6% return)
Today’s Game
Florida (+140) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-160)
In the game I like today Josh Johnson is matched up against Clayton Kershaw. Johnson is having a great year after missing most of the last two years due to injury. His 8-2 record and 2.74 ERA look legit. He strikes out his fair share at 7.66 K/9 and doesn’t walk too many at 2.46 BB/9. He is also a ground ball pitcher who doesn’t give up the long ball. Kershaw is having a really good season too with an 8-5 record and a 2.95 ERA, but it doesn’t look to stay that way. He strikes out a decent amount at 8.77 K/9, but he walks way too many at 5.06 BB/9. He’s not a ground ball pitcher, but doesn’t give up the long ball. He has really benefitted from an extremely low hit rate, especially in his last 3 starts where he went 3-0 with a 0.47 ERA. He has really good stuff, and his hit rate will tend to be lower than normal because of that and the fact that he is effectively wild, but his 5.91 H/9 rate is unsustainable. Once he learns how to throw more strikes he should be dominant, but he’s not there yet. Both teams are playing well and are coming off sweeps. At +140, I think the Marlins are a good value play with their ace on the mound.
Bets
$20 FLA +140
Portfolio: $931 (1.1% return)
S&P 500: $976 (6% return)
Today’s Game
Florida (+140) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-160)
In the game I like today Josh Johnson is matched up against Clayton Kershaw. Johnson is having a great year after missing most of the last two years due to injury. His 8-2 record and 2.74 ERA look legit. He strikes out his fair share at 7.66 K/9 and doesn’t walk too many at 2.46 BB/9. He is also a ground ball pitcher who doesn’t give up the long ball. Kershaw is having a really good season too with an 8-5 record and a 2.95 ERA, but it doesn’t look to stay that way. He strikes out a decent amount at 8.77 K/9, but he walks way too many at 5.06 BB/9. He’s not a ground ball pitcher, but doesn’t give up the long ball. He has really benefitted from an extremely low hit rate, especially in his last 3 starts where he went 3-0 with a 0.47 ERA. He has really good stuff, and his hit rate will tend to be lower than normal because of that and the fact that he is effectively wild, but his 5.91 H/9 rate is unsustainable. Once he learns how to throw more strikes he should be dominant, but he’s not there yet. Both teams are playing well and are coming off sweeps. At +140, I think the Marlins are a good value play with their ace on the mound.
Bets
$20 FLA +140
Thursday, July 16, 2009
Games Start Back Up Today
The S&P 500 continued to makes its run during the All-Star break.
Portfolio: $1018 (10.5% return)
S&P 500: $931 (1.1% return)
Today's Games
Chicago Cubs (-120) @ Washington Nationals (+110)
Houston (+140) @ LA Dodgers (-150)
Rich Harden is matched up against John Lannan in the first game I like tonight. Harden strikes out a lot of batters, but also walks his fair share. He is striking out batters at a high rate of 10.09 K/9 this year, and that is up a little from his career average but down a little from last year. He is walking a little more batters this year, but his last 3 starts are right in line with his career average. The one thing that has hurt Harden this year is his hit rate. He is giving up 9.49 H/9, and 15.43 H/9 over his last 3 starts. His career average is 7.33, and his ground ball to fly ball ratio is right on his career average. Harden has also been hurt by the long ball, giving up way more than his average. Good thing for him that Washington is one of the worst home run hitting ballparks in the majors and the Nationals are a below average home run hitting team. All those indicators tell me that Harden is the victim of bad luck and his numbers should start to turn around. Lannan is a lefty that gets a lot of ground balls. He does not strikeout many, and his strikeout rate of 4.02 K/9 is way down from last years rate of 5.79 K/9. Over his last 3 starts his rate is even worse at 2.22 K/9. He doesn't walk many and has shown good control over his last 3 starts. His hits are up a little, but his ground ball rate is down a little. I think the right handed heavy Cubs at -120 are a pretty good play here.
In the second game, Wandy Rodriguez is going up against Randy Wolf. Both lefties have put together solid seasons, with Rodriguez breaking out and Wolf reemerging. Rodriguez’s strikeout, walk, and hit rates are basically the same as last years, and he has really improved his ground ball rate. His rates indicate he’s a solid pitcher, and he is 2-0 with a 2.05 ERA in his last 3 starts. Wolf has also been pitching well as of late, going 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA in his last 3 starts. His strikeout rate is little down a little from his career average, but so is his walk rate. The one thing that has helped him out this year is his hit rate. It’s at 7.93 for the year compared to his career average of 8.71. He hasn’t had a hit rate under 8 since 2003, and his current rate is probably unsustainable due to the fact that his ground ball rate is right on his career average. The Astros have been struggling to score runs this year while the Dodgers have the second best offense in the National League. Even with that being said, I think the Astros at +140 are a solid play with Rodriguez pitching.
Bets
$36 CHC -120
$20 HOU +140
I will be on the road all day tomorrow so if I post it'll probably be right before game time.
Portfolio: $1018 (10.5% return)
S&P 500: $931 (1.1% return)
Today's Games
Chicago Cubs (-120) @ Washington Nationals (+110)
Houston (+140) @ LA Dodgers (-150)
Rich Harden is matched up against John Lannan in the first game I like tonight. Harden strikes out a lot of batters, but also walks his fair share. He is striking out batters at a high rate of 10.09 K/9 this year, and that is up a little from his career average but down a little from last year. He is walking a little more batters this year, but his last 3 starts are right in line with his career average. The one thing that has hurt Harden this year is his hit rate. He is giving up 9.49 H/9, and 15.43 H/9 over his last 3 starts. His career average is 7.33, and his ground ball to fly ball ratio is right on his career average. Harden has also been hurt by the long ball, giving up way more than his average. Good thing for him that Washington is one of the worst home run hitting ballparks in the majors and the Nationals are a below average home run hitting team. All those indicators tell me that Harden is the victim of bad luck and his numbers should start to turn around. Lannan is a lefty that gets a lot of ground balls. He does not strikeout many, and his strikeout rate of 4.02 K/9 is way down from last years rate of 5.79 K/9. Over his last 3 starts his rate is even worse at 2.22 K/9. He doesn't walk many and has shown good control over his last 3 starts. His hits are up a little, but his ground ball rate is down a little. I think the right handed heavy Cubs at -120 are a pretty good play here.
In the second game, Wandy Rodriguez is going up against Randy Wolf. Both lefties have put together solid seasons, with Rodriguez breaking out and Wolf reemerging. Rodriguez’s strikeout, walk, and hit rates are basically the same as last years, and he has really improved his ground ball rate. His rates indicate he’s a solid pitcher, and he is 2-0 with a 2.05 ERA in his last 3 starts. Wolf has also been pitching well as of late, going 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA in his last 3 starts. His strikeout rate is little down a little from his career average, but so is his walk rate. The one thing that has helped him out this year is his hit rate. It’s at 7.93 for the year compared to his career average of 8.71. He hasn’t had a hit rate under 8 since 2003, and his current rate is probably unsustainable due to the fact that his ground ball rate is right on his career average. The Astros have been struggling to score runs this year while the Dodgers have the second best offense in the National League. Even with that being said, I think the Astros at +140 are a solid play with Rodriguez pitching.
Bets
$36 CHC -120
$20 HOU +140
I will be on the road all day tomorrow so if I post it'll probably be right before game time.
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