I was able to gain a little even though the Red Sox blew a 10-1 lead, Scott Baker labored through 5, and Albert Pujols hit 2 homeruns.
Portfolio: $1006 (9.2% return)
S&P 500: $919 (-0.2% return)
Today’s Games
New York Mets (+180) @ Milwaukee (-220)
Philadelphia (-110) @ Atlanta (-100)
The first game has Mike Pelfrey matched up against Yovani Gallardo. Pelfrey is a ground ball pitcher who pitches to contact. He won’t strikeout many or walk many, and he allows very few homeruns. Keeping the ball on the ground and in the ballpark and is key when facing the power hitting Brewers. The Mets lineup is banged up, but they draw a decent amount of walks and strikeout less than any other team. This should play out well against Gallardo, who seems to have lost his control lately. You can see my analysis on Gallardo from 6/26. He has a depressed hit rate and is walking too many batters. If the Mets can lay off his curveball, which he hasn’t been able to get over the plate, they should be able to sit on fastballs and score some runs. This game may come down to the bullpens. At +180, this is a good value play.
The second game has Cole Hamels going up against Jair Jurrjens. Hamels has had some really bad luck leading to a 4-4 record with a 4.44 ERA. His 8.44 K/9 and 1.78 BB/9 rates are the best of his career, but his 10.89 H/9 rate is way above his 8.24 H/9 career average. Balls will eventually stop finding green at this rate for opposing hitters. Jurrjens is a solid major league pitcher who gets a lot of ground balls and has a 5-6 record with a 2.93 ERA. His K/9, BB/9, and H/9 rates are all seem to be normal given his brief history. His ERA was 3.68 last year, so his 2.93 ERA this year tells me he’s stranding more base runners than normal, which is mainly luck. The Phillies have been in a funk as of late and their ace should pick them up tonight.
Bets
$20 NYM +180
$22 PHI -110
I will be out of town the next 5 days, so I’m not sure how much I’ll post.
Showing posts with label yovani gallardo. Show all posts
Showing posts with label yovani gallardo. Show all posts
Wednesday, July 1, 2009
Friday, June 26, 2009
Santana Outduels Carpenter
The Mets won 3-2 yesterday, gaining $22 for my portfolio. The S&P 500 also gained 20, so I'm just staying ahead of pace. It was a pitcher's duel yesterday with Santana getting out of a couple jams and Carpenter having one bad inning.
Portfolio: 933 (1.3% return)
S&P 500: 920 (-0.1% return)
Today's Games
Kansas City (-110) @ Pittsburgh (-110)
San Francisco (+130) @ Milwaukee (-150)
There are some pretty good pitching matchups today, and a handful of games I like, but I've narrowed it down to my two top picks. The first game has Gil Meche going up agianst Charlie Morton. Meche got rocked his last start after coming off a complete game shutout, and was really solid in his previous 6 starts, allowing no more than 2 ER in each of those starts. Meche is a solid veteran who should bounce back tonight against a Pirates team who is sending out rookie Charlie Morton. Morton is nothing special as his ERA last year was 6.19 in 74 innings and has only had one good minor league season (2008). At -110, I think Kansas City is hard to pass up. Losing the DH should be no big deal as KC can't hit anyway, but should score a few runs off the rookie Morton.
The second game has Matt Cain matched up against Yovani Gallardo. Both have been pitching really well this year and both teams have been playing solid. Cain is off to a 9-1 start with a 2.28 ERA and his skill set is basically the same this year as it was the last two years when he went a combined 15-30. His K/9 rate, BB/9, and H/9 are almost indentical. His strand rate (leading to lower ERA) is a little better than years past and he's getting more (normal) run support. Those are both kind of luck stats, but he was due for a change in luck after suffering through some of the worst luck the last two years. Gallardo has gotten off to a good start, going 7-4 with a 3.00 ERA. He is a dominant strikeout pitcher, avergaing 9.3 K/9, but has had a control problem as of late, averaging 6.1 BB/9 in his last 4 starts. Gallardo's hit rate is also a little depressed compared to his brief history and the major league average, and should correct. The lack of control bodes well for the Giants and Cain. Look for Gallardo to last no more than 6 innings tonight, and Cain to pitch solid.
There are a couple more games that I might add later in the day as I look at the games more.
Bets
$22 KC -110
$20 SF +130
Portfolio: 933 (1.3% return)
S&P 500: 920 (-0.1% return)
Today's Games
Kansas City (-110) @ Pittsburgh (-110)
San Francisco (+130) @ Milwaukee (-150)
There are some pretty good pitching matchups today, and a handful of games I like, but I've narrowed it down to my two top picks. The first game has Gil Meche going up agianst Charlie Morton. Meche got rocked his last start after coming off a complete game shutout, and was really solid in his previous 6 starts, allowing no more than 2 ER in each of those starts. Meche is a solid veteran who should bounce back tonight against a Pirates team who is sending out rookie Charlie Morton. Morton is nothing special as his ERA last year was 6.19 in 74 innings and has only had one good minor league season (2008). At -110, I think Kansas City is hard to pass up. Losing the DH should be no big deal as KC can't hit anyway, but should score a few runs off the rookie Morton.
The second game has Matt Cain matched up against Yovani Gallardo. Both have been pitching really well this year and both teams have been playing solid. Cain is off to a 9-1 start with a 2.28 ERA and his skill set is basically the same this year as it was the last two years when he went a combined 15-30. His K/9 rate, BB/9, and H/9 are almost indentical. His strand rate (leading to lower ERA) is a little better than years past and he's getting more (normal) run support. Those are both kind of luck stats, but he was due for a change in luck after suffering through some of the worst luck the last two years. Gallardo has gotten off to a good start, going 7-4 with a 3.00 ERA. He is a dominant strikeout pitcher, avergaing 9.3 K/9, but has had a control problem as of late, averaging 6.1 BB/9 in his last 4 starts. Gallardo's hit rate is also a little depressed compared to his brief history and the major league average, and should correct. The lack of control bodes well for the Giants and Cain. Look for Gallardo to last no more than 6 innings tonight, and Cain to pitch solid.
There are a couple more games that I might add later in the day as I look at the games more.
Bets
$22 KC -110
$20 SF +130
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