It’s nice to see the NFL season starting again. I might bet a couple games next week now that I have a little feel for the teams. The one thing to remember about the NFL is that teams are not as good or bad as you think. I generally like to bet on teams that looked horrible the week before or against media over-hyped teams. A good example of this theory was the Jets/Texans game yesterday. The Jets were starting a rookie on the road while the Texans were supposed to have a high powered offense, so the -5 line seemed a little low. I bet Vegas made a killing on that game.
Portfolio: $1092 (18.6% return)
S&P 500: $1043 (13.2% return)
Today’s Games
Cleveland (+140) @ Minnesota (-160)
Colorado (+170) @ San Francisco (-180)
In the first game Jeremy Sowers is matched up against Carl Pavano. Sowers is a soft tossing left hander who has control issues. He really is not a major league pitcher, and I have yet to figure out why the Indians continue to give him opportunities. His K’s are way below the major league average at 3.69 and his walks are above the major league average at 3.61. He is also a fly ball pitcher. Not much to like here. Pavano is having an average season after being out most of the last 3 years due to injury. His indicators are pretty good and he has been throwing well over the last few months. He does occasionally get lit up, and that has really hurt his overall numbers. I doubt the Indians will light him up, and the Twins should be able to cross the plate a few times against Sowers.
In the second game Jason Hammel is matched up against Tim Lincecum. Hammel is turning into a solid middle of the rotation starter, and has been throwing well as of late. But I do not think he will out duel the rested Lincecum, who had his last start skipped due to a stiff lower back. Lincecum should have a little extra on his pitches and I really would not be surprised to see him go the distance in this must win game. The kid is so competitive that once he’s out there on the mound he will be fine.
Bet
$16 MIN -160
$36 SF -180
Showing posts with label san francisco giants. Show all posts
Showing posts with label san francisco giants. Show all posts
Monday, September 14, 2009
Thursday, September 3, 2009
CC Dominates, Yankees Win
It took until the 9th inning for the Yankees offense to wake up, but CC pitched well enough anyway, giving up 1 run in 7 and striking out 9. $20 is not too good of a return off $48, but I’ll take it.
Portfolio: $1044 (13.4% return)
S&P 500: $995 (8% return)
Today’s Games
San Francisco (-140) @ Philadelphia (+120)
In the only game I like today Tim Lincecum is matched up against Pedro Martinez. I have written about Lincecum enough that you should know what I think of him. He is coming off an 8 inning, 0 run performance against the Rockies and looks to continue that at Philadelphia. He does not really allow the long ball and that is one of the reasons why I like him here. The Phillies strikeout a decent amount and that’s not good news when facing the major league leader in that category. Also, Lincecum carved them up pretty good last month. Martinez has had 4 starts since being signed by the Phillies and none of them were anything special. He’s also not expected to go deep into games. He’s obviously lost most of his stuff, but his control his still there. Not that it really matters since the Giants make every pitcher look like a control freak. I like the Giants here and look for Lincecum to reach the 10 K mark. What a pitching matchup this would have been if the Pedro of 1999 was facing the Lincecum of today. I would definitely pay to see that one.
I will be out of town from Friday until Tuesday and I’m not sure how much I will be able to update my blog. I generally need some time to look over the games and I’m not sure if I’ll be able to do that. Also, only a week away from football season.
Bets
$28 SF -140
Portfolio: $1044 (13.4% return)
S&P 500: $995 (8% return)
Today’s Games
San Francisco (-140) @ Philadelphia (+120)
In the only game I like today Tim Lincecum is matched up against Pedro Martinez. I have written about Lincecum enough that you should know what I think of him. He is coming off an 8 inning, 0 run performance against the Rockies and looks to continue that at Philadelphia. He does not really allow the long ball and that is one of the reasons why I like him here. The Phillies strikeout a decent amount and that’s not good news when facing the major league leader in that category. Also, Lincecum carved them up pretty good last month. Martinez has had 4 starts since being signed by the Phillies and none of them were anything special. He’s also not expected to go deep into games. He’s obviously lost most of his stuff, but his control his still there. Not that it really matters since the Giants make every pitcher look like a control freak. I like the Giants here and look for Lincecum to reach the 10 K mark. What a pitching matchup this would have been if the Pedro of 1999 was facing the Lincecum of today. I would definitely pay to see that one.
I will be out of town from Friday until Tuesday and I’m not sure how much I will be able to update my blog. I generally need some time to look over the games and I’m not sure if I’ll be able to do that. Also, only a week away from football season.
Bets
$28 SF -140
Friday, August 28, 2009
No Action Yesterday
Portfolio: $1037 (12.6% return)
S&P 500: $1031 (11.9% return)
Today’s Games
Chicago White Sox (+200) @ New York Yankees (-240)
Washington (+170) @ St. Louis (-190)
Colorado (+110) @ San Francisco (-130)
In the first game Mark Buehrle is matched up against CC Sabathia. Buehrle has struggled ever since his perfect game and has been getting hit hard lately while his K’s have dropped. Sabathia has won his last 4 starts and is in CY Young form. His pinpoint control and increased K rate are the main drivers behind that. When he can throw all three of his pitches for strikes it’s really hard to score runs off him. I look for the Yankees and CC to cruise in this one.
In the second game John Lannan is matched up against John Smoltz. Lannan has been getting absolutely tagged lately as his ERA is 12.00 over his last 3 starts, not good news facing the Cardinals. Smoltz is coming off his only decent start this year, and should have the confidence he lacked earlier in the season with the Red Sox. I’ve been saying all along that he still has some left in the tank, and if you type in “Smoltz” in the search on the top left corner of the page you can see my past analysis of him. His K and BB rates are right in line with his last 2 healthy seasons. I like the Cardinals to win easily.
In the third game Ubaldo Jimenez is matched up against Tim Lincecum for the second time in 5 days. Jimenez pitched great and Lincecum pitched below his standards and the Rockies won 4-2. Jimenez is on top of his game right now, but I find it hard to believe that Lincecum won’t be up for the challenge to get even. Lincecum has struggled with control his last 2 starts, so if he can get that fixed, which I think he will, he should be in a position to dominate. This is a true test for both starters in another huge series, and Lincecum will come out on top this time.
Bets
$24 NYY -240
$19 STL -190
$26 SF -130
S&P 500: $1031 (11.9% return)
Today’s Games
Chicago White Sox (+200) @ New York Yankees (-240)
Washington (+170) @ St. Louis (-190)
Colorado (+110) @ San Francisco (-130)
In the first game Mark Buehrle is matched up against CC Sabathia. Buehrle has struggled ever since his perfect game and has been getting hit hard lately while his K’s have dropped. Sabathia has won his last 4 starts and is in CY Young form. His pinpoint control and increased K rate are the main drivers behind that. When he can throw all three of his pitches for strikes it’s really hard to score runs off him. I look for the Yankees and CC to cruise in this one.
In the second game John Lannan is matched up against John Smoltz. Lannan has been getting absolutely tagged lately as his ERA is 12.00 over his last 3 starts, not good news facing the Cardinals. Smoltz is coming off his only decent start this year, and should have the confidence he lacked earlier in the season with the Red Sox. I’ve been saying all along that he still has some left in the tank, and if you type in “Smoltz” in the search on the top left corner of the page you can see my past analysis of him. His K and BB rates are right in line with his last 2 healthy seasons. I like the Cardinals to win easily.
In the third game Ubaldo Jimenez is matched up against Tim Lincecum for the second time in 5 days. Jimenez pitched great and Lincecum pitched below his standards and the Rockies won 4-2. Jimenez is on top of his game right now, but I find it hard to believe that Lincecum won’t be up for the challenge to get even. Lincecum has struggled with control his last 2 starts, so if he can get that fixed, which I think he will, he should be in a position to dominate. This is a true test for both starters in another huge series, and Lincecum will come out on top this time.
Bets
$24 NYY -240
$19 STL -190
$26 SF -130
Sunday, August 23, 2009
Yankees Lose, Cardinals Win - Up $5
It's always good when you split and gain money.
Portfolio: $1093 (18.7% return)
S&P 500: $1026 (11.4% return)
Today's Games
Florida (+120) @ Atlanta (-130)
San Francisco (+100) @ Colorado (-110)
New York Yankees (+110) @ Boston (-120)
In the first game Ricky Nolasco is matched up against Derek Lowe. Nolasco struggled early in the year, was sent down to the minors for a few starts, and has been pretty good ever since he was called up. He was roughed up 2 starts ago, but has been dominant other than that over the last 2 months. His strikeout and walk rates are ace caliber, so it's really no surprise that he's turned it around. Lowe on the the other hand got off to a good start, but has struggled the last few months. It looks like his skills are deteriorating as his strikeouts have dropped, his walks have increased, and his ground ball rate has dropped which has led to a higher hit rate. He is 36 years old so he might never get his stuff back again. I look for the underdog Marlins with their potential dominant starter to take the rubber game of this big series.
In the second game Tim Lincecum is matched up against Ubaldo Jimenez. Lincecum is one of the best pitchers in baseball, but didn't look to impressive in his last start against the lowly Reds. Jimenez is turning into the Rockies ace and has been lights out as of late, going 3-0 with a 1.19 ERA over his last 3. His dominance should not continue as his walk rate is up and his hit rate is down. I look for Lincecum to bounce back and win the rubber game of this huge series.
In the third game CC Sabathia is going up against Josh Beckett in a rematch of the 2007 ALCS game 5. Sabathia has been in Cy Young form as of late and his indicators reflect that. Beckett was roughed up his last start and has been giving up the long ball lately, which is not good when facing the Yankees. After two uneven games, I looks for the Yankees and the red hot Sabathia to take this rubber game.
Bets
$20 FLA +120
$30 SF +100
$20 NYY +110
Friday, August 21, 2009
Split, Down $3
The Phillies won easily while Josh Johnson and the Marlins struggled.
Portfolio: $1056 (14.7% return)
S&P 500: $1007 (9.3% return)
Today’s Game
San Francisco (+160) @ Colorado (-180)
In the only game I like today Jonathan Sanchez is matched up against Aaron Cook. Sanchez is an erratic pitcher who has good stuff. His strikeout and hit rates tell me his stuff is pretty good, and the fact that he threw a no hitter puts his stuff up there with the best. His problem is he walks way too many. Even with 10 walks in his last 19 innings, he has gone 1-1 with a 2.84 ERA over that time which tells me he is at the top of his game stuff wise. Believe it or not, Sanchez’s indicators are almost identical to Clayton Kershaw’s. Kershaw has had some luck in his hit rate and strand rate which is why his ERA is 2.96 compared to 4.49 for Sanchez. The veteran Cook is usually a solid ground ball pitcher who keeps his team in the game, but he has reverted back to his early season form and that’s not good news for the Rockies. He is 0-2 with an 8.36 ERA over his last 3 starts. His walks have increased, strikeouts decreased, and he is giving up the long ball. If he can’t snap out of this funk he could be in for a long night even against a light hitting Giants team. I like the Giants in game 1 of their biggest series of the year.
Bet
$20 SF +160
Portfolio: $1056 (14.7% return)
S&P 500: $1007 (9.3% return)
Today’s Game
San Francisco (+160) @ Colorado (-180)
In the only game I like today Jonathan Sanchez is matched up against Aaron Cook. Sanchez is an erratic pitcher who has good stuff. His strikeout and hit rates tell me his stuff is pretty good, and the fact that he threw a no hitter puts his stuff up there with the best. His problem is he walks way too many. Even with 10 walks in his last 19 innings, he has gone 1-1 with a 2.84 ERA over that time which tells me he is at the top of his game stuff wise. Believe it or not, Sanchez’s indicators are almost identical to Clayton Kershaw’s. Kershaw has had some luck in his hit rate and strand rate which is why his ERA is 2.96 compared to 4.49 for Sanchez. The veteran Cook is usually a solid ground ball pitcher who keeps his team in the game, but he has reverted back to his early season form and that’s not good news for the Rockies. He is 0-2 with an 8.36 ERA over his last 3 starts. His walks have increased, strikeouts decreased, and he is giving up the long ball. If he can’t snap out of this funk he could be in for a long night even against a light hitting Giants team. I like the Giants in game 1 of their biggest series of the year.
Bet
$20 SF +160
Wednesday, August 12, 2009
My Losing Ways Continue
The Rays lost 6-0 as Ervin Santana threw a 3 hit gem. On the positive side I only bet $12.
Portfolio: $903 (-2% return)
S&P 500: $994 (7.9% return)
Today's Game
Los Angeles Dodgers (+180) @ San Francisco Giants (-190)
I'm going with a safe one today to get back on the winning track. Journey man Jeff Weaver is matched up against Tim Lincecum. The Dodgers won the last 2 nights and Lincecum will make sure the Giants don't get swept by the division leader because that's what top ace's do. Weaver is nothing special and the Giants should have no problem scoring.
Bet
$38 SF -190
Portfolio: $903 (-2% return)
S&P 500: $994 (7.9% return)
Today's Game
Los Angeles Dodgers (+180) @ San Francisco Giants (-190)
I'm going with a safe one today to get back on the winning track. Journey man Jeff Weaver is matched up against Tim Lincecum. The Dodgers won the last 2 nights and Lincecum will make sure the Giants don't get swept by the division leader because that's what top ace's do. Weaver is nothing special and the Giants should have no problem scoring.
Bet
$38 SF -190
Wednesday, July 22, 2009
On A Cold Streak, Red Sox Lose Again
Beckett pitched well enough to win, but the Red Sox offense continued to slump. It’s been a rough few days, but my gains are still positive and I’m beating the S&P 500 by 2.2%.
Portfolio: $975 (5.9% return)
S&P 500: $955 (3.7% return)
Today’s Game
San Francisco (-110) @ Atlanta (-120)
Tim Lincecum is going up against Jair Jurrjens in a matchup of two good, young pitchers. If you have read previous posts or look at past analysis, I am pretty high on Lincecum. I bet on him last game at -150 and lost, and I said that we would probably never see a better line for him the rest of the season. Well, the Giants have been slumping lately, especially their offense while losing 5 of 6. This has set up a perfect situation to bet on. Lincecum should put up a pretty solid start against an average Braves offense in a pitchers ballpark, so the Giants won’t need much runs to win. Jurrjens has been pitching pretty well lately, but it doesn’t look like he can keep up it up. His 2.77 ERA is low considering that his strikeouts are down, walks are up, and ground balls are down. He is benefitting by a low hit rate and high runners stranded rate, both of which are mainly luck. Look for the Giants offense to wake up and score a handful of runs in an easy win.
Bets
$44 SF -110
Portfolio: $975 (5.9% return)
S&P 500: $955 (3.7% return)
Today’s Game
San Francisco (-110) @ Atlanta (-120)
Tim Lincecum is going up against Jair Jurrjens in a matchup of two good, young pitchers. If you have read previous posts or look at past analysis, I am pretty high on Lincecum. I bet on him last game at -150 and lost, and I said that we would probably never see a better line for him the rest of the season. Well, the Giants have been slumping lately, especially their offense while losing 5 of 6. This has set up a perfect situation to bet on. Lincecum should put up a pretty solid start against an average Braves offense in a pitchers ballpark, so the Giants won’t need much runs to win. Jurrjens has been pitching pretty well lately, but it doesn’t look like he can keep up it up. His 2.77 ERA is low considering that his strikeouts are down, walks are up, and ground balls are down. He is benefitting by a low hit rate and high runners stranded rate, both of which are mainly luck. Look for the Giants offense to wake up and score a handful of runs in an easy win.
Bets
$44 SF -110
Monday, July 20, 2009
Giants Finally Win Low Scoring Affair
Matt Cain and Zach Duke both pitched well, but Cain was a little better and the Giants offense finally decided to score a little. I won $20.
Portfolio: $1051 (14.1% return)
S&P 500: $940 (2.1% return)
Today’s Games
San Francisco (+150) @ Atlanta (-170)
Boston (-110) @ Texas (-120)
The first game has Jonathan Sanchez going up against Tommy Hanson. Sanchez is coming off a near perfect game (Uribe error). He strikes out a lot of hitters, 9.04 K/9, but also walks a lot, 5.26 BB/9. He generally doesn’t make it past the 6th inning due to pitch count, but you can see how dominant he can be when he can command his pitches. Hanson is a young prospect who was dominant in the minors. While his 4-0 record and 2.85 ERA make you think he has carried his skills over to the majors, his indicators say otherwise. His strikeout rate is low at 5.49 K/9 and walks are high at 4.39 BB/9. Also, his hit rate of 7.24 H/9 seems a little low given that he’s a minor fly ball pitcher. Over his last 3 starts it looks like he has fixed his control while walking only 5 in 18 innings as his walk rate in the minors was 3.3 BB/9, but the strikeouts haven’t came yet. His major league strikeout rate of 5.5 K/9 is way below his minor league rate of 10.4 K/9. Sanchez’s last start should have given him confidence and I believe it will carry over into tonight’s game. Hanson’s ERA is unsustainable at the rate he is pitching and I hope the Giants offense will give Sanchez enough run support. At +150, I think it’s worth the risk.
The second game has John Smoltz matched up against Kevin Millwood. It looks like Smoltz still has some left as his strikeout, walk, and ground ball rates are all in line with his career averages. His hit rate through his first 4 starts is about 25% higher than the last 5 years, and that has lead to a 5.40 ERA. With all his other indicators being normal, his hit rate should start to regress. Millwood is starting to show signs of wearing down. His strikeouts are down and walks are up, especially in his last 3 starts. He is 0-2 with an 8.83 ERA with 9 strikeouts and 8 walks in 17 1/3 innings. Both offenses and defenses are good, but the Red Sox are a little better at each. I like the Red Sox at -110 and the reason why I think they are not favored by more is doubts about Smoltz, but his indicators tell me he still has it.
Bets
$20 SF +150
$22 BOS -110
Portfolio: $1051 (14.1% return)
S&P 500: $940 (2.1% return)
Today’s Games
San Francisco (+150) @ Atlanta (-170)
Boston (-110) @ Texas (-120)
The first game has Jonathan Sanchez going up against Tommy Hanson. Sanchez is coming off a near perfect game (Uribe error). He strikes out a lot of hitters, 9.04 K/9, but also walks a lot, 5.26 BB/9. He generally doesn’t make it past the 6th inning due to pitch count, but you can see how dominant he can be when he can command his pitches. Hanson is a young prospect who was dominant in the minors. While his 4-0 record and 2.85 ERA make you think he has carried his skills over to the majors, his indicators say otherwise. His strikeout rate is low at 5.49 K/9 and walks are high at 4.39 BB/9. Also, his hit rate of 7.24 H/9 seems a little low given that he’s a minor fly ball pitcher. Over his last 3 starts it looks like he has fixed his control while walking only 5 in 18 innings as his walk rate in the minors was 3.3 BB/9, but the strikeouts haven’t came yet. His major league strikeout rate of 5.5 K/9 is way below his minor league rate of 10.4 K/9. Sanchez’s last start should have given him confidence and I believe it will carry over into tonight’s game. Hanson’s ERA is unsustainable at the rate he is pitching and I hope the Giants offense will give Sanchez enough run support. At +150, I think it’s worth the risk.
The second game has John Smoltz matched up against Kevin Millwood. It looks like Smoltz still has some left as his strikeout, walk, and ground ball rates are all in line with his career averages. His hit rate through his first 4 starts is about 25% higher than the last 5 years, and that has lead to a 5.40 ERA. With all his other indicators being normal, his hit rate should start to regress. Millwood is starting to show signs of wearing down. His strikeouts are down and walks are up, especially in his last 3 starts. He is 0-2 with an 8.83 ERA with 9 strikeouts and 8 walks in 17 1/3 innings. Both offenses and defenses are good, but the Red Sox are a little better at each. I like the Red Sox at -110 and the reason why I think they are not favored by more is doubts about Smoltz, but his indicators tell me he still has it.
Bets
$20 SF +150
$22 BOS -110
Friday, July 17, 2009
Pretty Good Night
I hit both games yesterday to bring my portfolio up $58.
Portfolio: $1076 (16.8% return)
S&P 500: $940 (2.1% return)
Today's Game
San Francisco (-150) @ Pittsburgh (+140)
Tim Lincecum is matched up against Paul Maholm in what should be a win for the Giants. Tim Lincecum is the best pitcher in baseball in my opinion and at -150 I think this is a great bet. I do not know why the line is so low since he is facing a below average hitting team. My guess is because he struggled a little in the All-Star game and that was only 3 days ago. But Lincecum is a dominant strikeout pitcher who happens to be on top of his game. He doesn't walk too many and gets ground balls. Maholm is a finesse lefty who doesn't strikeout or walk many. He is a ground ball pitcher, but this year he is getting around 20% fewer ground balls. In Lincecum's last 3 starts he is 3-0 with a 1.19 and 25 K's in 22 2/3 innings. Maholm is 2-0 with a 5.19 ERA and 5 K's in 17 1/3 innings. I don't think the Pirates will be scoring too many runs tonight. At -150 I think this is a steal.
Bets
$45 SF -150
Portfolio: $1076 (16.8% return)
S&P 500: $940 (2.1% return)
Today's Game
San Francisco (-150) @ Pittsburgh (+140)
Tim Lincecum is matched up against Paul Maholm in what should be a win for the Giants. Tim Lincecum is the best pitcher in baseball in my opinion and at -150 I think this is a great bet. I do not know why the line is so low since he is facing a below average hitting team. My guess is because he struggled a little in the All-Star game and that was only 3 days ago. But Lincecum is a dominant strikeout pitcher who happens to be on top of his game. He doesn't walk too many and gets ground balls. Maholm is a finesse lefty who doesn't strikeout or walk many. He is a ground ball pitcher, but this year he is getting around 20% fewer ground balls. In Lincecum's last 3 starts he is 3-0 with a 1.19 and 25 K's in 22 2/3 innings. Maholm is 2-0 with a 5.19 ERA and 5 K's in 17 1/3 innings. I don't think the Pirates will be scoring too many runs tonight. At -150 I think this is a steal.
Bets
$45 SF -150
Tuesday, June 30, 2009
Lincecum Throws A Gem
The two wins last night bumped my portfolio up $50. Both my portfolio and the S&P 500 were at $921 when I started last week.
Portfolio: $993 (7.8% return)
S&P 500: $927 (0.7% return)
Today's Games
Boston (-130) @ Baltimore (+110)
Minnesota (-140) @ Kansas City (+130)
San Francisco (+190) @ St. Louis (-200)
The first game has John Smoltz matched up against Rich Hill. Smoltz has had one start this year after coming back from injury are didn’t fare too well. He lasted 5 innings, giving up 5 earned runs on 7 hits against the lowly Nationals. 4 of those runs were given up in the first inning, and he really settled down after that. He did manage to strikeout 5 and only walk 1, proving that he still should have good stuff with good control. He was probably just tight and nervous in his first start for the Red Sox, his first game with a team other than the Braves in 20 years. Most of the young Orioles have never seen him before. Rich Hill is off to 3-2 start but with a bad 6.03 ERA. Hill has good stuff and can rack up strikeouts, 8.2 K/9, but can’t seem to control it, 5.79 BB/9. His walk rate is above his career average of 3.86 BB/9, but he’s not showing any signs of improving on that number. This is probably due to injury. The Red Sox offense should knock Hill out by the 6th inning as they have a patient lineup that doesn’t strikeout too much. At -130 the line is just enough to make me like the Red Sox and the veteran Smoltz.
The second game has Scott Baker going up against Brain Bannister. Baker is 5-6 with a 5.17 ERA, but is one of the most underrated pitchers in the game. He’s strikeout rate and walk rate are the best in his career, and his hit rate is normal. His 4.5 K/BB rate is one of the best in the majors. The long ball is what has been hurting him, mainly earlier in the season. He has already given up 17 homeruns in 87 innings compared to 20 in 172 innings last year, and he’s actually giving up fewer fly balls this year. Well in his last 4 starts he is 2-0 with a 3.62 ERA while only allowing 2 homeruns, so he seems to have that under control. And playing the Royals, he should not be too worried about giving up homeruns. Brian Bannister is about as average as they come with a 5-5 record and a 4.17 ERA. He doesn’t strikeout many, 5.45 K/9, doesn’t walk many, 2.9 BB/9, and is not a heavy ground ball pitcher. The better than average Twins offense should score a few off him, and that should be enough for Baker who has a chance to throw a gem tonight.
One more game I like today. Randy Johnson is going up against Chris Carpenter. Johnson is pitching really well as of late, going 4-1 with a 2.57 ERA in his last 7 starts. He still has some left in the tank as his strikeout rate, walk rate, and hit rate all are normal. The Giants have also been playing well as of late. You can see my analysis on Carpenter from 6/25. I still feel the same way about him. His hit rate is way too low and his strikeout rate is not where it used to be. He should not be putting up a 1.78 ERA. His control is still there, as his walk rate is the best of his career, but that shouldn’t matter too much as the Giants swing at everything. The Cardinals offense has gone cold the last couple games, so taking the Giants is a good value pick here.
Bets
$26 BOS -130
$28 MIN -140
$10 SF +190
Portfolio: $993 (7.8% return)
S&P 500: $927 (0.7% return)
Today's Games
Boston (-130) @ Baltimore (+110)
Minnesota (-140) @ Kansas City (+130)
San Francisco (+190) @ St. Louis (-200)
The first game has John Smoltz matched up against Rich Hill. Smoltz has had one start this year after coming back from injury are didn’t fare too well. He lasted 5 innings, giving up 5 earned runs on 7 hits against the lowly Nationals. 4 of those runs were given up in the first inning, and he really settled down after that. He did manage to strikeout 5 and only walk 1, proving that he still should have good stuff with good control. He was probably just tight and nervous in his first start for the Red Sox, his first game with a team other than the Braves in 20 years. Most of the young Orioles have never seen him before. Rich Hill is off to 3-2 start but with a bad 6.03 ERA. Hill has good stuff and can rack up strikeouts, 8.2 K/9, but can’t seem to control it, 5.79 BB/9. His walk rate is above his career average of 3.86 BB/9, but he’s not showing any signs of improving on that number. This is probably due to injury. The Red Sox offense should knock Hill out by the 6th inning as they have a patient lineup that doesn’t strikeout too much. At -130 the line is just enough to make me like the Red Sox and the veteran Smoltz.
The second game has Scott Baker going up against Brain Bannister. Baker is 5-6 with a 5.17 ERA, but is one of the most underrated pitchers in the game. He’s strikeout rate and walk rate are the best in his career, and his hit rate is normal. His 4.5 K/BB rate is one of the best in the majors. The long ball is what has been hurting him, mainly earlier in the season. He has already given up 17 homeruns in 87 innings compared to 20 in 172 innings last year, and he’s actually giving up fewer fly balls this year. Well in his last 4 starts he is 2-0 with a 3.62 ERA while only allowing 2 homeruns, so he seems to have that under control. And playing the Royals, he should not be too worried about giving up homeruns. Brian Bannister is about as average as they come with a 5-5 record and a 4.17 ERA. He doesn’t strikeout many, 5.45 K/9, doesn’t walk many, 2.9 BB/9, and is not a heavy ground ball pitcher. The better than average Twins offense should score a few off him, and that should be enough for Baker who has a chance to throw a gem tonight.
One more game I like today. Randy Johnson is going up against Chris Carpenter. Johnson is pitching really well as of late, going 4-1 with a 2.57 ERA in his last 7 starts. He still has some left in the tank as his strikeout rate, walk rate, and hit rate all are normal. The Giants have also been playing well as of late. You can see my analysis on Carpenter from 6/25. I still feel the same way about him. His hit rate is way too low and his strikeout rate is not where it used to be. He should not be putting up a 1.78 ERA. His control is still there, as his walk rate is the best of his career, but that shouldn’t matter too much as the Giants swing at everything. The Cardinals offense has gone cold the last couple games, so taking the Giants is a good value pick here.
Bets
$26 BOS -130
$28 MIN -140
$10 SF +190
Monday, June 29, 2009
KC Barely Scores Enough
The Royals ended up winning 3-2, with Greinke pitching well and Morton struggling. A rain delay caused Greinke to only last 6 1/3 innings. Otherwise, he probably would have went the distance. I gained a solid $30.
Portfolio: $943 (2.4% return)
S&P 500: $919 (-0.2% return)
Today's Games
San Francisco (-130) @ St. Louis (+110)
Chicago Cubs (-110) @ Pittsburgh (-110)
Tim Lincecum is matched up against Brad Thompson. I'm not sure why the Giants are not favored by more, since they have a better record and have one of the best pitchers in baseball going up against an average pitcher at best. Lincecum is dominant, averaging 10.63 K/9 while only allowing 2.4 BB/9. Mix that in with the fact that he gets more ground ball than fly ball outs, which means he is less likely to give up extra base hits. In his last 3 starts he's thrown 26 innings while striking out 29 and only walking 3. He's in peak form. Thompson is a heavy ground ball pitcher who pitches to contact having only struck out 13 batters in 42 innings, and none in his last 12. He has good control in only walking 2.36 batters per 9, so the free swinging Giants probably won't draw a single walk off him. He's giving up the major league average of about a hit per inning, but that shouldn't last as that is about a hit per inning below his career average. I think the Giants are a no brainer here, and I think the line isn't more in their favor because of the DeRosa trade. A trade usually brings up the moral of a team and they play better, but I don't think that will be the case tonight since they are going up against Lincecum. Should be interesting to see the Pujols vs. Lincecum battles. I'm going to bet the max I can (5%).
In the second game, Rich Harden is matched up against Zach Duke. Harden has nasty stuff with a K/9 rate of 10, but walks a lot of batters with a 4.5 BB/9 rate. He also throws a lot of pitches which leads to a lot of early exits. His strikeout rate is in line with his career average but the reason why he has a 4-4 record with a 4.95 ERA is due to his walk rate being up along with his hit rate. Harden’s walk rate is up 0.60 BB/9 and his hit rate of 8.10 per 9 is almost 1 hit per inning more than his career average. This may be due to the fact that he is no longer a ground ball pitcher. Wrigley is not a good place for fly ball pitchers and this shows with a home ERA of 6.31 compared to a road ERA of 2.96. Good thing this game is at PNC. Zach Duke on the other hand is a strike throwing ground ball pitcher who won’t miss a lot of bats. Duke is having a good year with an 8-5 record and a 3.09 ERA, but that shouldn’t last. His strikeout rate and walk rate are normal, but his hit rate is 8.57 per 9 compared to his 10.65 per 9 career average. This is odd given the fact that his groundball rate is the lowest of his career. Also, a move to the mean has already started as he has given up 29 hits in his last 26 innings. The thing that Duke has going for him is that he is a lefty, but with the Cubs right handed heavy lineup I think they are in line to score a few runs tonight.
Bets
$39 SF -130
$22 CHC -110
Portfolio: $943 (2.4% return)
S&P 500: $919 (-0.2% return)
Today's Games
San Francisco (-130) @ St. Louis (+110)
Chicago Cubs (-110) @ Pittsburgh (-110)
Tim Lincecum is matched up against Brad Thompson. I'm not sure why the Giants are not favored by more, since they have a better record and have one of the best pitchers in baseball going up against an average pitcher at best. Lincecum is dominant, averaging 10.63 K/9 while only allowing 2.4 BB/9. Mix that in with the fact that he gets more ground ball than fly ball outs, which means he is less likely to give up extra base hits. In his last 3 starts he's thrown 26 innings while striking out 29 and only walking 3. He's in peak form. Thompson is a heavy ground ball pitcher who pitches to contact having only struck out 13 batters in 42 innings, and none in his last 12. He has good control in only walking 2.36 batters per 9, so the free swinging Giants probably won't draw a single walk off him. He's giving up the major league average of about a hit per inning, but that shouldn't last as that is about a hit per inning below his career average. I think the Giants are a no brainer here, and I think the line isn't more in their favor because of the DeRosa trade. A trade usually brings up the moral of a team and they play better, but I don't think that will be the case tonight since they are going up against Lincecum. Should be interesting to see the Pujols vs. Lincecum battles. I'm going to bet the max I can (5%).
In the second game, Rich Harden is matched up against Zach Duke. Harden has nasty stuff with a K/9 rate of 10, but walks a lot of batters with a 4.5 BB/9 rate. He also throws a lot of pitches which leads to a lot of early exits. His strikeout rate is in line with his career average but the reason why he has a 4-4 record with a 4.95 ERA is due to his walk rate being up along with his hit rate. Harden’s walk rate is up 0.60 BB/9 and his hit rate of 8.10 per 9 is almost 1 hit per inning more than his career average. This may be due to the fact that he is no longer a ground ball pitcher. Wrigley is not a good place for fly ball pitchers and this shows with a home ERA of 6.31 compared to a road ERA of 2.96. Good thing this game is at PNC. Zach Duke on the other hand is a strike throwing ground ball pitcher who won’t miss a lot of bats. Duke is having a good year with an 8-5 record and a 3.09 ERA, but that shouldn’t last. His strikeout rate and walk rate are normal, but his hit rate is 8.57 per 9 compared to his 10.65 per 9 career average. This is odd given the fact that his groundball rate is the lowest of his career. Also, a move to the mean has already started as he has given up 29 hits in his last 26 innings. The thing that Duke has going for him is that he is a lefty, but with the Cubs right handed heavy lineup I think they are in line to score a few runs tonight.
Bets
$39 SF -130
$22 CHC -110
Friday, June 26, 2009
Santana Outduels Carpenter
The Mets won 3-2 yesterday, gaining $22 for my portfolio. The S&P 500 also gained 20, so I'm just staying ahead of pace. It was a pitcher's duel yesterday with Santana getting out of a couple jams and Carpenter having one bad inning.
Portfolio: 933 (1.3% return)
S&P 500: 920 (-0.1% return)
Today's Games
Kansas City (-110) @ Pittsburgh (-110)
San Francisco (+130) @ Milwaukee (-150)
There are some pretty good pitching matchups today, and a handful of games I like, but I've narrowed it down to my two top picks. The first game has Gil Meche going up agianst Charlie Morton. Meche got rocked his last start after coming off a complete game shutout, and was really solid in his previous 6 starts, allowing no more than 2 ER in each of those starts. Meche is a solid veteran who should bounce back tonight against a Pirates team who is sending out rookie Charlie Morton. Morton is nothing special as his ERA last year was 6.19 in 74 innings and has only had one good minor league season (2008). At -110, I think Kansas City is hard to pass up. Losing the DH should be no big deal as KC can't hit anyway, but should score a few runs off the rookie Morton.
The second game has Matt Cain matched up against Yovani Gallardo. Both have been pitching really well this year and both teams have been playing solid. Cain is off to a 9-1 start with a 2.28 ERA and his skill set is basically the same this year as it was the last two years when he went a combined 15-30. His K/9 rate, BB/9, and H/9 are almost indentical. His strand rate (leading to lower ERA) is a little better than years past and he's getting more (normal) run support. Those are both kind of luck stats, but he was due for a change in luck after suffering through some of the worst luck the last two years. Gallardo has gotten off to a good start, going 7-4 with a 3.00 ERA. He is a dominant strikeout pitcher, avergaing 9.3 K/9, but has had a control problem as of late, averaging 6.1 BB/9 in his last 4 starts. Gallardo's hit rate is also a little depressed compared to his brief history and the major league average, and should correct. The lack of control bodes well for the Giants and Cain. Look for Gallardo to last no more than 6 innings tonight, and Cain to pitch solid.
There are a couple more games that I might add later in the day as I look at the games more.
Bets
$22 KC -110
$20 SF +130
Portfolio: 933 (1.3% return)
S&P 500: 920 (-0.1% return)
Today's Games
Kansas City (-110) @ Pittsburgh (-110)
San Francisco (+130) @ Milwaukee (-150)
There are some pretty good pitching matchups today, and a handful of games I like, but I've narrowed it down to my two top picks. The first game has Gil Meche going up agianst Charlie Morton. Meche got rocked his last start after coming off a complete game shutout, and was really solid in his previous 6 starts, allowing no more than 2 ER in each of those starts. Meche is a solid veteran who should bounce back tonight against a Pirates team who is sending out rookie Charlie Morton. Morton is nothing special as his ERA last year was 6.19 in 74 innings and has only had one good minor league season (2008). At -110, I think Kansas City is hard to pass up. Losing the DH should be no big deal as KC can't hit anyway, but should score a few runs off the rookie Morton.
The second game has Matt Cain matched up against Yovani Gallardo. Both have been pitching really well this year and both teams have been playing solid. Cain is off to a 9-1 start with a 2.28 ERA and his skill set is basically the same this year as it was the last two years when he went a combined 15-30. His K/9 rate, BB/9, and H/9 are almost indentical. His strand rate (leading to lower ERA) is a little better than years past and he's getting more (normal) run support. Those are both kind of luck stats, but he was due for a change in luck after suffering through some of the worst luck the last two years. Gallardo has gotten off to a good start, going 7-4 with a 3.00 ERA. He is a dominant strikeout pitcher, avergaing 9.3 K/9, but has had a control problem as of late, averaging 6.1 BB/9 in his last 4 starts. Gallardo's hit rate is also a little depressed compared to his brief history and the major league average, and should correct. The lack of control bodes well for the Giants and Cain. Look for Gallardo to last no more than 6 innings tonight, and Cain to pitch solid.
There are a couple more games that I might add later in the day as I look at the games more.
Bets
$22 KC -110
$20 SF +130
Tuesday, June 23, 2009
First Win
That was an easy $44 last night, with the Rockies easily winning 11-1. Here's the updated financial situation. Remember, this is not real money, just a simulation to see how much I can outgain the stock market.
Betting: $965 (4.8% return)
S&P 500: 893 (-3% return)
Today's Picks
Two late game's look good tonight, San Francisco (-130) @ Oakland (+110) and Colorado (+100) @ LA Angels (-120).
Tim Lincecum is going up against the rookie Vin Mazzaro for the second time this year. The Giants won with Lincecum throwing a complete game shutout a couple weeks ago. Lincecum is the best pitcher in all of baseball in my opinion, with 3 plus pitches he can throw at any time. He's a high strikeout pitcher that gets a good amount of goundballs, pretty rare. Mazzaro is a good prospect that has shown he is hard to hit. Not a big strikeout pitcher, but has decent control. This is right up Lincecum's alley with Oakland being a poor hitting team and their ballpark being a pitcher's park. The Giants should win a low scoring affair tonight with Lincecum possibly throwing another gem.
Ubaldo Jimenez is matched up against another rookie Sean O'Sullivan in the second game. Jimenez is a heavy ground ball pitcher that throws hard. He's not really a strikeout pitcher, but if his stuff is good, he can miss some bats. O'Sullivan is a decent prospect that has pretty good control for a youngster. Not a big strikeout pitcher, but has shown good K/BB ratio's in the past. He has struggled in the minors this year going 6-4 with a 5.88 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP while splitting time in AA and AAA. The Rockies are on fire lately and should jump on the righty O'Sullivan early with their lefty dominant lineup.
I like the veterans, if you can call Lincecum and Jimenez veterans, to previal against the good prospects in both games. I like the Rockies hitting and the Athletics lack of hitting.
Bets
$39 SF -130
$30 COL +100
Betting: $965 (4.8% return)
S&P 500: 893 (-3% return)
Today's Picks
Two late game's look good tonight, San Francisco (-130) @ Oakland (+110) and Colorado (+100) @ LA Angels (-120).
Tim Lincecum is going up against the rookie Vin Mazzaro for the second time this year. The Giants won with Lincecum throwing a complete game shutout a couple weeks ago. Lincecum is the best pitcher in all of baseball in my opinion, with 3 plus pitches he can throw at any time. He's a high strikeout pitcher that gets a good amount of goundballs, pretty rare. Mazzaro is a good prospect that has shown he is hard to hit. Not a big strikeout pitcher, but has decent control. This is right up Lincecum's alley with Oakland being a poor hitting team and their ballpark being a pitcher's park. The Giants should win a low scoring affair tonight with Lincecum possibly throwing another gem.
Ubaldo Jimenez is matched up against another rookie Sean O'Sullivan in the second game. Jimenez is a heavy ground ball pitcher that throws hard. He's not really a strikeout pitcher, but if his stuff is good, he can miss some bats. O'Sullivan is a decent prospect that has pretty good control for a youngster. Not a big strikeout pitcher, but has shown good K/BB ratio's in the past. He has struggled in the minors this year going 6-4 with a 5.88 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP while splitting time in AA and AAA. The Rockies are on fire lately and should jump on the righty O'Sullivan early with their lefty dominant lineup.
I like the veterans, if you can call Lincecum and Jimenez veterans, to previal against the good prospects in both games. I like the Rockies hitting and the Athletics lack of hitting.
Bets
$39 SF -130
$30 COL +100
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