Beckett pitched well enough to win, but the Red Sox offense continued to slump. It’s been a rough few days, but my gains are still positive and I’m beating the S&P 500 by 2.2%.
Portfolio: $975 (5.9% return)
S&P 500: $955 (3.7% return)
Today’s Game
San Francisco (-110) @ Atlanta (-120)
Tim Lincecum is going up against Jair Jurrjens in a matchup of two good, young pitchers. If you have read previous posts or look at past analysis, I am pretty high on Lincecum. I bet on him last game at -150 and lost, and I said that we would probably never see a better line for him the rest of the season. Well, the Giants have been slumping lately, especially their offense while losing 5 of 6. This has set up a perfect situation to bet on. Lincecum should put up a pretty solid start against an average Braves offense in a pitchers ballpark, so the Giants won’t need much runs to win. Jurrjens has been pitching pretty well lately, but it doesn’t look like he can keep up it up. His 2.77 ERA is low considering that his strikeouts are down, walks are up, and ground balls are down. He is benefitting by a low hit rate and high runners stranded rate, both of which are mainly luck. Look for the Giants offense to wake up and score a handful of runs in an easy win.
Bets
$44 SF -110
Showing posts with label jair jurrjens. Show all posts
Showing posts with label jair jurrjens. Show all posts
Wednesday, July 22, 2009
Wednesday, July 1, 2009
2-1, Up $13
I was able to gain a little even though the Red Sox blew a 10-1 lead, Scott Baker labored through 5, and Albert Pujols hit 2 homeruns.
Portfolio: $1006 (9.2% return)
S&P 500: $919 (-0.2% return)
Today’s Games
New York Mets (+180) @ Milwaukee (-220)
Philadelphia (-110) @ Atlanta (-100)
The first game has Mike Pelfrey matched up against Yovani Gallardo. Pelfrey is a ground ball pitcher who pitches to contact. He won’t strikeout many or walk many, and he allows very few homeruns. Keeping the ball on the ground and in the ballpark and is key when facing the power hitting Brewers. The Mets lineup is banged up, but they draw a decent amount of walks and strikeout less than any other team. This should play out well against Gallardo, who seems to have lost his control lately. You can see my analysis on Gallardo from 6/26. He has a depressed hit rate and is walking too many batters. If the Mets can lay off his curveball, which he hasn’t been able to get over the plate, they should be able to sit on fastballs and score some runs. This game may come down to the bullpens. At +180, this is a good value play.
The second game has Cole Hamels going up against Jair Jurrjens. Hamels has had some really bad luck leading to a 4-4 record with a 4.44 ERA. His 8.44 K/9 and 1.78 BB/9 rates are the best of his career, but his 10.89 H/9 rate is way above his 8.24 H/9 career average. Balls will eventually stop finding green at this rate for opposing hitters. Jurrjens is a solid major league pitcher who gets a lot of ground balls and has a 5-6 record with a 2.93 ERA. His K/9, BB/9, and H/9 rates are all seem to be normal given his brief history. His ERA was 3.68 last year, so his 2.93 ERA this year tells me he’s stranding more base runners than normal, which is mainly luck. The Phillies have been in a funk as of late and their ace should pick them up tonight.
Bets
$20 NYM +180
$22 PHI -110
I will be out of town the next 5 days, so I’m not sure how much I’ll post.
Portfolio: $1006 (9.2% return)
S&P 500: $919 (-0.2% return)
Today’s Games
New York Mets (+180) @ Milwaukee (-220)
Philadelphia (-110) @ Atlanta (-100)
The first game has Mike Pelfrey matched up against Yovani Gallardo. Pelfrey is a ground ball pitcher who pitches to contact. He won’t strikeout many or walk many, and he allows very few homeruns. Keeping the ball on the ground and in the ballpark and is key when facing the power hitting Brewers. The Mets lineup is banged up, but they draw a decent amount of walks and strikeout less than any other team. This should play out well against Gallardo, who seems to have lost his control lately. You can see my analysis on Gallardo from 6/26. He has a depressed hit rate and is walking too many batters. If the Mets can lay off his curveball, which he hasn’t been able to get over the plate, they should be able to sit on fastballs and score some runs. This game may come down to the bullpens. At +180, this is a good value play.
The second game has Cole Hamels going up against Jair Jurrjens. Hamels has had some really bad luck leading to a 4-4 record with a 4.44 ERA. His 8.44 K/9 and 1.78 BB/9 rates are the best of his career, but his 10.89 H/9 rate is way above his 8.24 H/9 career average. Balls will eventually stop finding green at this rate for opposing hitters. Jurrjens is a solid major league pitcher who gets a lot of ground balls and has a 5-6 record with a 2.93 ERA. His K/9, BB/9, and H/9 rates are all seem to be normal given his brief history. His ERA was 3.68 last year, so his 2.93 ERA this year tells me he’s stranding more base runners than normal, which is mainly luck. The Phillies have been in a funk as of late and their ace should pick them up tonight.
Bets
$20 NYM +180
$22 PHI -110
I will be out of town the next 5 days, so I’m not sure how much I’ll post.
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