Cole Hamels once again struggled and the Yankees did not look tight after A-Rod got that lucky homerun call. It should be a good game tonight. There are no NFL games that I like today. Except for Houston all of the favaorties are at home and most of the lines are high.
Portfolio: $895 (-2.8% return)
S&P 500: $1036 (12.5% return)
Today's Games
New York Yankees (-170) @ Philadelphia (+160)
In Game 4 of the World Series CC Sabathia is matched up against Joe Blanton. As you can see, the analysis for end of the season and postseason games is different than regular season games. End of the season and postseason games have was more human element involved and therefore are harder to predict. It's kind of like football. So in this game I believe CC will lay an egg and that is why I like the Phillies.
Bets
$20 PHI +160
Showing posts with label philadelphia phillies. Show all posts
Showing posts with label philadelphia phillies. Show all posts
Sunday, November 1, 2009
Saturday, October 31, 2009
No Action Yesterday
Portfolio: $915 (-0.7% return)
S&P 500: $1036 (12.5% return)
Today's Games
New York Yankees (-120) @ Philadelphia (+110)
In Game 3 of the World Series Andy Pettitte is matched up against Cole Hamels. Pettitte has pitched well this postseason and wrapped up the ALCS against the Angels last week. Hamels has continued to struggle as he is giving up a higher than normal amount of hits. The Phillies have been really tough at home the last 2 postseasons and the Yankees still look like they are playing tighter than normal. I like the Phillies to take Game 3 at home as I think they are the better all around team and have more confidence.
Bets
$20 PHI +110
S&P 500: $1036 (12.5% return)
Today's Games
New York Yankees (-120) @ Philadelphia (+110)
In Game 3 of the World Series Andy Pettitte is matched up against Cole Hamels. Pettitte has pitched well this postseason and wrapped up the ALCS against the Angels last week. Hamels has continued to struggle as he is giving up a higher than normal amount of hits. The Phillies have been really tough at home the last 2 postseasons and the Yankees still look like they are playing tighter than normal. I like the Phillies to take Game 3 at home as I think they are the better all around team and have more confidence.
Bets
$20 PHI +110
Thursday, October 29, 2009
Phillies Win - Up $45
Cliff Lee dominated just like he has all postseason and CC finally looked like his old choking self. He did not look sharp at all and he should have given up more runs as he was consistently missing locations and pitching from behind the whole game. I think the Yankees are in some trouble as they looked tight last night and will most likely be that way again tonight.
Portfolio: $945 (2.6% return)
S&P 500: $1043 (13.2% return)
Today's Games
Philadelphia (+180) @ New York Yankees (-200)
In Game 2 of the World Series Pedro Martinez is matched up against AJ Burnett. Both pitchers have been average this postseason with Pedro being a little better. Burnett has good stuff but continues to struggle with control. Pedro has a little left in the tank and his control is still way above average. The Phillies look like they are playing loose and they generally beat up pitchers who can't locate their pitches. I am sticking by my theory that the Yankees seem to be happy just to make the World Series and seem to have no energy left. Combine that with the fact that they looked really tight and I see the Phillies winning easily tonight.
Bets
$30 PHI +180
Portfolio: $945 (2.6% return)
S&P 500: $1043 (13.2% return)
Today's Games
Philadelphia (+180) @ New York Yankees (-200)
In Game 2 of the World Series Pedro Martinez is matched up against AJ Burnett. Both pitchers have been average this postseason with Pedro being a little better. Burnett has good stuff but continues to struggle with control. Pedro has a little left in the tank and his control is still way above average. The Phillies look like they are playing loose and they generally beat up pitchers who can't locate their pitches. I am sticking by my theory that the Yankees seem to be happy just to make the World Series and seem to have no energy left. Combine that with the fact that they looked really tight and I see the Phillies winning easily tonight.
Bets
$30 PHI +180
Wednesday, October 28, 2009
No Action Yesterday
I was glad to see the NBA season start. I will very rarely bet on NBA games, but I will follow it. This season is going to be one of the better one's in recent history. The NBA is back to having a good product.
Portfolio: $900 (-2.3% return)
S&P 500: $1063 (15.4% return)
Today's Games
Philadelphia (+150) @ New York Yankees (-170)
In Game 1 of the World Series Cliff Lee is matched up against CC Sabathia in what should be a great matchup between two former Indians and CY Young winners. Cliff Lee has been dominant this postseason but has been helped out by a low hit rate. His other indicators are solid. Sabathia has also been dominant and his indicators look solid, but I am still sticking by my theory that he will choke. I also feel like the Yankees are just happy to get to the World Series and gave everything they got to get here. I think the Phillies expected to get here. I would not be surprised to see the Phillies take the Series in 5. I think the Phillies are a great bet tonight at +150.
Bets
$30 PHI +150
Portfolio: $900 (-2.3% return)
S&P 500: $1063 (15.4% return)
Today's Games
Philadelphia (+150) @ New York Yankees (-170)
In Game 1 of the World Series Cliff Lee is matched up against CC Sabathia in what should be a great matchup between two former Indians and CY Young winners. Cliff Lee has been dominant this postseason but has been helped out by a low hit rate. His other indicators are solid. Sabathia has also been dominant and his indicators look solid, but I am still sticking by my theory that he will choke. I also feel like the Yankees are just happy to get to the World Series and gave everything they got to get here. I think the Phillies expected to get here. I would not be surprised to see the Phillies take the Series in 5. I think the Phillies are a great bet tonight at +150.
Bets
$30 PHI +150
Wednesday, October 21, 2009
No Action Yesterday
Well the Yankees look like they will be heading to the World Series as they are playing loose and with confidence. The Phillies have a chance to wrap up their series tonight at home with their ace on the mound.
Portfolio: $923 (0.2% return)
S&P 500: $1091 (18.5% return)
Today's Games
Los Angeles Dodgers (+130) @ Philadelphia (-150)
With the Phillies up 3 games to 1 Vicente Padilla is matched up against Cole Hamels. Padilla has been a real find for the Dodgers late in the season and has pitched really well this postseason, but his current success is not sustainable. Hamels has uncharacteristically struggled this postseason but he and the Phillies smell blood and should put the Dodgers away tonight at home.
Bets
$30 PHI -150
Portfolio: $923 (0.2% return)
S&P 500: $1091 (18.5% return)
Today's Games
Los Angeles Dodgers (+130) @ Philadelphia (-150)
With the Phillies up 3 games to 1 Vicente Padilla is matched up against Cole Hamels. Padilla has been a real find for the Dodgers late in the season and has pitched really well this postseason, but his current success is not sustainable. Hamels has uncharacteristically struggled this postseason but he and the Phillies smell blood and should put the Dodgers away tonight at home.
Bets
$30 PHI -150
Monday, October 19, 2009
2-1, Up $9
I was surprised the Giants/Saints game didn’t live up to the hype as the Saints dominated from the start, but the other big matchup between the Ravens and Vikings was pretty good. The Jets continued their freefall after ESPN basically anointed them a top team after their 3-0 start. Sanchez really struggled and maybe he really did need another year in college as Pete Carroll said last year. The Eagles laid their typical egg against a team they should blow out, and I put that all on McNabb. The Bengals were outplayed from the start in an obvious let down game. I have no clue what happened to Seattle, but that’s probably the product of Hasselbeck not getting regular reps in practice.
Portfolio: $903 (-2% return)
S&P 500: $1088 (18.1% return)
Today’s Games
Los Angeles Dodgers (+120) @ Philadelphia (-130)
In Game 4 of the NLCS Randy Wolf is matched up against Joe Blanton. Wolf has been pitching bad for at least a month now and I don’t see it turning around. He was lucky not to let up more runs and get the loss against the Cardinals in Game 1 of the NLDS. Blanton struggled down the stretch as his control was bad, but he hasn’t started in a couple weeks and his arm should be fresh. This might be a high scoring game and I like the Phillies to score more runs.
Bets
$26 PHI -130
Portfolio: $903 (-2% return)
S&P 500: $1088 (18.1% return)
Today’s Games
Los Angeles Dodgers (+120) @ Philadelphia (-130)
In Game 4 of the NLCS Randy Wolf is matched up against Joe Blanton. Wolf has been pitching bad for at least a month now and I don’t see it turning around. He was lucky not to let up more runs and get the loss against the Cardinals in Game 1 of the NLDS. Blanton struggled down the stretch as his control was bad, but he hasn’t started in a couple weeks and his arm should be fresh. This might be a high scoring game and I like the Phillies to score more runs.
Bets
$26 PHI -130
Wednesday, October 7, 2009
Great Game Last Night
The Tigers/Twins game last night was one of the better baseball games I’ve seen in a while and that got me pumped up for the playoffs.
Portfolio: $1006 (9.2% return)
S&P 500: $1055 (14.5% return)
Today’s Games
Colorado (+120) @ Philadelphia (-140)
St. Louis (-150) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (+130)
In the first game Ubaldo Jimenez is matched up against Cliff Lee. Jimenez went 15-12 with a 3.47 ERA this season and is a very unique pitcher. He is a flamer thrower and a heavy ground ball pitcher. I do not believe anyone has the combined strikeout and ground ball ratios he does. Over his last 4 starts he is fanning 12.35 batters per nine and that is about the highest you’ll see from any pitcher. By being a heavy ground ball pitcher he keeps the ball in the park, giving up only 13 homeruns in 218 innings. His problem is walks, and he has struggled with those lately. His walk rate per nine over his last 4 starts is 4.78 compared to his 3.51 season average. Jimenez also was also successful in the postseason 2 years ago, posting a 2.25 ERA in 16 innings. Lee was unhittable in his first month with the Phillies but has been pretty average as of late. His indicators are strong, but he has struggled with a high hit rate all season and that’s not good when facing a really good hitting lineup. Lee has no previous postseason experience and really hasn’t pitched in too many big games in his career. Some pitchers take off running in these situations, but most have a learning curve. I look for the Rockies to take game 1 as Jimenez should be able to take away the Phillies biggest strength, the long ball.
In the second game Chris Carpenter is matched up against Randy Wolf. Carpenter will probably win the National League CY Young and has only had one hiccup in the second half. His indicators look solid so he should give his team a good chance to win. His career postseason numbers are really good, going 5-1 with a 2.53 ERA. Wolf has been the Dodgers most consistent starter all year long. He improved his walk rate, but what really helped him was a low hit rate. His low hit rate was not caused by an increased ground ball rate so it was most likely due to better defense, a new pitch and luck. Over his last 4 starts his indicators are really weak even though he posted a 3.33 ERA. His ERA is will rise if he continues to pitch like he has been, and that’s not good news when facing the Cardinals and Chris Carpenter. Wolf has no postseason experience and looks to be tiring down the stretch. I like the Cardinals to win game 1 pretty easy.
Bets
$20 COL +120
$30 STL -150
Portfolio: $1006 (9.2% return)
S&P 500: $1055 (14.5% return)
Today’s Games
Colorado (+120) @ Philadelphia (-140)
St. Louis (-150) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (+130)
In the first game Ubaldo Jimenez is matched up against Cliff Lee. Jimenez went 15-12 with a 3.47 ERA this season and is a very unique pitcher. He is a flamer thrower and a heavy ground ball pitcher. I do not believe anyone has the combined strikeout and ground ball ratios he does. Over his last 4 starts he is fanning 12.35 batters per nine and that is about the highest you’ll see from any pitcher. By being a heavy ground ball pitcher he keeps the ball in the park, giving up only 13 homeruns in 218 innings. His problem is walks, and he has struggled with those lately. His walk rate per nine over his last 4 starts is 4.78 compared to his 3.51 season average. Jimenez also was also successful in the postseason 2 years ago, posting a 2.25 ERA in 16 innings. Lee was unhittable in his first month with the Phillies but has been pretty average as of late. His indicators are strong, but he has struggled with a high hit rate all season and that’s not good when facing a really good hitting lineup. Lee has no previous postseason experience and really hasn’t pitched in too many big games in his career. Some pitchers take off running in these situations, but most have a learning curve. I look for the Rockies to take game 1 as Jimenez should be able to take away the Phillies biggest strength, the long ball.
In the second game Chris Carpenter is matched up against Randy Wolf. Carpenter will probably win the National League CY Young and has only had one hiccup in the second half. His indicators look solid so he should give his team a good chance to win. His career postseason numbers are really good, going 5-1 with a 2.53 ERA. Wolf has been the Dodgers most consistent starter all year long. He improved his walk rate, but what really helped him was a low hit rate. His low hit rate was not caused by an increased ground ball rate so it was most likely due to better defense, a new pitch and luck. Over his last 4 starts his indicators are really weak even though he posted a 3.33 ERA. His ERA is will rise if he continues to pitch like he has been, and that’s not good news when facing the Cardinals and Chris Carpenter. Wolf has no postseason experience and looks to be tiring down the stretch. I like the Cardinals to win game 1 pretty easy.
Bets
$20 COL +120
$30 STL -150
Wednesday, September 23, 2009
Dodgers and Royals Win Easily
Both games went just as I predicted and my portfolio gained $40.
Portfolio: $1177 (27.8% return)
S&P 500: $1072 (16.4% return)
Today’s Games
Philadelphia (-170) @ Florida (+150)
Boston (-200) @ Kansas City (+170)
In the first game Cole Hamels is matched up against Rick VandenHurk. After struggling for most of the year by his standards, Cole Hamels has found his groove as of late. During his struggles he was the victim of bad luck as his hit rate was high for no reason, but that has turned around recently. His indicators are really strong over his last 4 starts in which he has gone 3-1 with an 1.82 ERA and all signs point to him keeping it up. VandenHurk has also pitched well lately and has decent stuff, but gives out the free pass a little too frequently. He is also a fly ball pitcher which does not bode well when facing the Phillies. He has kept the ball in the park in his last 3 starts, but I do not see him keeping that up. I like the Phillies with their ace in postseason form to take this one.
In the second game Josh Beckett is matched up against Luke Hochevar. Beckett has had an up and down season, but he’s currently on the up part and looks to be gearing up for the playoffs. His indicators are strong and his homerun woes are behind him so I look for him to continue to deal. Hochevar is inconsistent but he’s coming off a complete game, 3 hit shutout. He has the potential to be a solid number 3 and possibly number 2 starter, but you never know what you’re going to get from him start to start. His indicators tell me that his ERA should be lower than 5.79. He has had 4 really good starts this year but has laid an egg in the following start 3 times. I look for Beckett to dominate a weak lineup and Hochevar to lay another egg after a solid performance.
Bets
$34 PHI -170
$40 BOS -200
Portfolio: $1177 (27.8% return)
S&P 500: $1072 (16.4% return)
Today’s Games
Philadelphia (-170) @ Florida (+150)
Boston (-200) @ Kansas City (+170)
In the first game Cole Hamels is matched up against Rick VandenHurk. After struggling for most of the year by his standards, Cole Hamels has found his groove as of late. During his struggles he was the victim of bad luck as his hit rate was high for no reason, but that has turned around recently. His indicators are really strong over his last 4 starts in which he has gone 3-1 with an 1.82 ERA and all signs point to him keeping it up. VandenHurk has also pitched well lately and has decent stuff, but gives out the free pass a little too frequently. He is also a fly ball pitcher which does not bode well when facing the Phillies. He has kept the ball in the park in his last 3 starts, but I do not see him keeping that up. I like the Phillies with their ace in postseason form to take this one.
In the second game Josh Beckett is matched up against Luke Hochevar. Beckett has had an up and down season, but he’s currently on the up part and looks to be gearing up for the playoffs. His indicators are strong and his homerun woes are behind him so I look for him to continue to deal. Hochevar is inconsistent but he’s coming off a complete game, 3 hit shutout. He has the potential to be a solid number 3 and possibly number 2 starter, but you never know what you’re going to get from him start to start. His indicators tell me that his ERA should be lower than 5.79. He has had 4 really good starts this year but has laid an egg in the following start 3 times. I look for Beckett to dominate a weak lineup and Hochevar to lay another egg after a solid performance.
Bets
$34 PHI -170
$40 BOS -200
Thursday, September 3, 2009
CC Dominates, Yankees Win
It took until the 9th inning for the Yankees offense to wake up, but CC pitched well enough anyway, giving up 1 run in 7 and striking out 9. $20 is not too good of a return off $48, but I’ll take it.
Portfolio: $1044 (13.4% return)
S&P 500: $995 (8% return)
Today’s Games
San Francisco (-140) @ Philadelphia (+120)
In the only game I like today Tim Lincecum is matched up against Pedro Martinez. I have written about Lincecum enough that you should know what I think of him. He is coming off an 8 inning, 0 run performance against the Rockies and looks to continue that at Philadelphia. He does not really allow the long ball and that is one of the reasons why I like him here. The Phillies strikeout a decent amount and that’s not good news when facing the major league leader in that category. Also, Lincecum carved them up pretty good last month. Martinez has had 4 starts since being signed by the Phillies and none of them were anything special. He’s also not expected to go deep into games. He’s obviously lost most of his stuff, but his control his still there. Not that it really matters since the Giants make every pitcher look like a control freak. I like the Giants here and look for Lincecum to reach the 10 K mark. What a pitching matchup this would have been if the Pedro of 1999 was facing the Lincecum of today. I would definitely pay to see that one.
I will be out of town from Friday until Tuesday and I’m not sure how much I will be able to update my blog. I generally need some time to look over the games and I’m not sure if I’ll be able to do that. Also, only a week away from football season.
Bets
$28 SF -140
Portfolio: $1044 (13.4% return)
S&P 500: $995 (8% return)
Today’s Games
San Francisco (-140) @ Philadelphia (+120)
In the only game I like today Tim Lincecum is matched up against Pedro Martinez. I have written about Lincecum enough that you should know what I think of him. He is coming off an 8 inning, 0 run performance against the Rockies and looks to continue that at Philadelphia. He does not really allow the long ball and that is one of the reasons why I like him here. The Phillies strikeout a decent amount and that’s not good news when facing the major league leader in that category. Also, Lincecum carved them up pretty good last month. Martinez has had 4 starts since being signed by the Phillies and none of them were anything special. He’s also not expected to go deep into games. He’s obviously lost most of his stuff, but his control his still there. Not that it really matters since the Giants make every pitcher look like a control freak. I like the Giants here and look for Lincecum to reach the 10 K mark. What a pitching matchup this would have been if the Pedro of 1999 was facing the Lincecum of today. I would definitely pay to see that one.
I will be out of town from Friday until Tuesday and I’m not sure how much I will be able to update my blog. I generally need some time to look over the games and I’m not sure if I’ll be able to do that. Also, only a week away from football season.
Bets
$28 SF -140
Saturday, August 29, 2009
Solid 3-0, Up $40
I kinda got lucky with the Yankees and Cardinals pulling it out, but all of my pitching predictions were correct. Lincecum was dominant and I was hoping he'd go out there for the 9th even after throwing 127 pitches. I think pitch count is way overrated, and it's nice to see the Giants as they don't put much stock into it.
Portfolio: $1077 (16.9% return)
S&P 500: $1029 (11.7% return)
Today's Game
Atlanta (+170) @ Philadelphia (-190)
In the only game I like today Derek Lowe is matched up against Cliff Lee. You can see my analysis of Lowe from 8/23. Not much has changed and I believe his best days are behind him. Lee on the other hand is in CY Young form and has almost been unhittable since joining the Phillies. His indicators as of late are right on last years and he has upped his K rate. While Lee can't keep up his sub 1.00 ERA, he should still pitch solid enough to get the win as the Phiilies should be able to score off Lowe early and often.
Bet
$38 PHI -190
Portfolio: $1077 (16.9% return)
S&P 500: $1029 (11.7% return)
Today's Game
Atlanta (+170) @ Philadelphia (-190)
In the only game I like today Derek Lowe is matched up against Cliff Lee. You can see my analysis of Lowe from 8/23. Not much has changed and I believe his best days are behind him. Lee on the other hand is in CY Young form and has almost been unhittable since joining the Phillies. His indicators as of late are right on last years and he has upped his K rate. While Lee can't keep up his sub 1.00 ERA, he should still pitch solid enough to get the win as the Phiilies should be able to score off Lowe early and often.
Bet
$38 PHI -190
Tuesday, August 25, 2009
No Action Yesterday
Portfolio: $1065 (15.6% return)
S&P 500: $1026 (11.4% return)
Today’s Games
Philadelphia (-190) @ Pittsburgh (+170)
Chicago White Sox (+250) @ Boston (-300)
In the first game Joe Blanton is matched up against Ross Ohlendorf. Blanton is having a solid season and has a very respectable 3.25 K/BB ratio, but he has gotten into trouble when he gives up the long ball. Good thing for him that he is facing the light hitting Pirates in a pitchers ballpark. The Phillies should score enough off the soft tossing Ohlendorf for Blanton to pick up his 9th win.
In the second game Freddy Garcia is matched up against Jon Lester. Garcia is making only his second start of the season and he was roughed up pretty good in his first one. I do not see him pitching well against the potent Red Sox offense after barely pitching much of the last 3 seasons. Lester on the other hand has been pretty much lights out as of late, going 1-0 with a 2.00 ERA over his last 4 starts while striking out 11 per 9 and only walking 2.33 per 9. This should be an easy one for the Red Sox. I generally don't like to bet on heavy favorite's like this, but this is such a lopsided match up.
Bets
$38 PHI -190
$30 BOS -300
S&P 500: $1026 (11.4% return)
Today’s Games
Philadelphia (-190) @ Pittsburgh (+170)
Chicago White Sox (+250) @ Boston (-300)
In the first game Joe Blanton is matched up against Ross Ohlendorf. Blanton is having a solid season and has a very respectable 3.25 K/BB ratio, but he has gotten into trouble when he gives up the long ball. Good thing for him that he is facing the light hitting Pirates in a pitchers ballpark. The Phillies should score enough off the soft tossing Ohlendorf for Blanton to pick up his 9th win.
In the second game Freddy Garcia is matched up against Jon Lester. Garcia is making only his second start of the season and he was roughed up pretty good in his first one. I do not see him pitching well against the potent Red Sox offense after barely pitching much of the last 3 seasons. Lester on the other hand has been pretty much lights out as of late, going 1-0 with a 2.00 ERA over his last 4 starts while striking out 11 per 9 and only walking 2.33 per 9. This should be an easy one for the Red Sox. I generally don't like to bet on heavy favorite's like this, but this is such a lopsided match up.
Bets
$38 PHI -190
$30 BOS -300
Thursday, August 20, 2009
Cardinals Win
The Cardinals took the 3 game series against the Dodgers in what was a great series if anyone stayed up to watch. This could very well be a playoff matchup if the Dodgers can hold on to the division.
Portfolio: $1059 (15% return)
S&P 500: $996 (8.1% return)
Today’s Games
Arizona (+170) @ Philadelphia (-190)
Florida (-130) @ Houston (+110)
In the first game Doug Davis is matched up against Joe Blanton. Davis has an ERA of 3.59 but it is due to rise as he as stranded a very high percentage of runners, which is mostly luck. He does not strikeout many and walks a little too many to have a mid 3 ERA. The Phillies should not have any problems leaving runners on base against this soft tossing lefty. Blanton is pretty average at 7-6 with a 3.88 ERA. His K/BB ratio of 3.14 is really good, but the long ball is what has hurt him this year. I just think the Phillies will score enough runs that it won’t matter if he gives up a couple bombs.
In the second game Josh Johnson is matched up against Wandy Rodriguez. Johnson is having a great season at 12-2 with a 2.85 ERA, and he’s even better in his last 3 starts going 2-0 with a 2.66 ERA. His stats look pretty legit. His hit rate has been a little low lately, but he has really stepped up his strikeouts and lowered his walks, so that tells me his stuff is there. Rodriguez is having a solid season, but has struggled lately going 1-1 with a 6.60 ERA over his last 3. He’s been giving away a ton of free passes and his strikeouts have declined, so that tells me his stuff is not what is was earlier in the season. I like the Marlins with their Cy Young candidate on the mound to keep pace with the division leading Phillies.
Bets
$19 PHI -190
$13 FLA -130
Portfolio: $1059 (15% return)
S&P 500: $996 (8.1% return)
Today’s Games
Arizona (+170) @ Philadelphia (-190)
Florida (-130) @ Houston (+110)
In the first game Doug Davis is matched up against Joe Blanton. Davis has an ERA of 3.59 but it is due to rise as he as stranded a very high percentage of runners, which is mostly luck. He does not strikeout many and walks a little too many to have a mid 3 ERA. The Phillies should not have any problems leaving runners on base against this soft tossing lefty. Blanton is pretty average at 7-6 with a 3.88 ERA. His K/BB ratio of 3.14 is really good, but the long ball is what has hurt him this year. I just think the Phillies will score enough runs that it won’t matter if he gives up a couple bombs.
In the second game Josh Johnson is matched up against Wandy Rodriguez. Johnson is having a great season at 12-2 with a 2.85 ERA, and he’s even better in his last 3 starts going 2-0 with a 2.66 ERA. His stats look pretty legit. His hit rate has been a little low lately, but he has really stepped up his strikeouts and lowered his walks, so that tells me his stuff is there. Rodriguez is having a solid season, but has struggled lately going 1-1 with a 6.60 ERA over his last 3. He’s been giving away a ton of free passes and his strikeouts have declined, so that tells me his stuff is not what is was earlier in the season. I like the Marlins with their Cy Young candidate on the mound to keep pace with the division leading Phillies.
Bets
$19 PHI -190
$13 FLA -130
Friday, August 14, 2009
3-0, Up $60
I’m catching right back up to the S&P 500. A good day today and I might even be ahead of it.
Portfolio: $983 (6.7% return)
S&P 500: $1013 (10% return)
Today’s Games
Philadelphia (+120) @ Atlanta (-140)
Boston (+130) @ Texas (-150)
San Diego (+190) @ St. Louis (-230)
In the first game Joe Blanton is matched up against Jair Jurrjens in a battle between two hot division rivals. Blanton has upped his strikeouts and is having a solid season except that he has struggled to keep the ball in the yard. But playing in the pitcher friendly Atlanta should take care of that problem. Jurrjens is a good pitcher, but has been the beneficiary of good luck up until a few starts ago. The baseball gods are turning on him as he not stranding all base runners anymore. The Phillies will pull this one out to distance in an important series to distance themselves from the Braves.
In the second game Jon Lester is going up against Kevin Millwood. Lester has the strikeout and walk rates of an ace but has been the victim of bad luck. He’s even a slight ground ball pitcher. Millwood on the other hand has had some really good luck this year. His strikeouts are down and everything else looks normal, so the fact that his ERA is 3.38 tells me it will rise. Lester has been pitching great as of late and should keep it up against a Texas team that is coming back from a 10 game road trip.
In the third game Mat Latos is matched up against Adam Wainwright. Latos is a young prospect who has pitched well so far, but I think he will struggle against a lineup that includes Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday. The Cardinals ace, Wainwright, has been pitching great this year and should mow down the light hitting Padres.
Bets
$20 PHI +120
$20 BOS +130
$23 STL -230
Portfolio: $983 (6.7% return)
S&P 500: $1013 (10% return)
Today’s Games
Philadelphia (+120) @ Atlanta (-140)
Boston (+130) @ Texas (-150)
San Diego (+190) @ St. Louis (-230)
In the first game Joe Blanton is matched up against Jair Jurrjens in a battle between two hot division rivals. Blanton has upped his strikeouts and is having a solid season except that he has struggled to keep the ball in the yard. But playing in the pitcher friendly Atlanta should take care of that problem. Jurrjens is a good pitcher, but has been the beneficiary of good luck up until a few starts ago. The baseball gods are turning on him as he not stranding all base runners anymore. The Phillies will pull this one out to distance in an important series to distance themselves from the Braves.
In the second game Jon Lester is going up against Kevin Millwood. Lester has the strikeout and walk rates of an ace but has been the victim of bad luck. He’s even a slight ground ball pitcher. Millwood on the other hand has had some really good luck this year. His strikeouts are down and everything else looks normal, so the fact that his ERA is 3.38 tells me it will rise. Lester has been pitching great as of late and should keep it up against a Texas team that is coming back from a 10 game road trip.
In the third game Mat Latos is matched up against Adam Wainwright. Latos is a young prospect who has pitched well so far, but I think he will struggle against a lineup that includes Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday. The Cardinals ace, Wainwright, has been pitching great this year and should mow down the light hitting Padres.
Bets
$20 PHI +120
$20 BOS +130
$23 STL -230
Wednesday, August 5, 2009
No Games Last Night
Portfolio: $1017 (10.4% return)
S&P 500: $1006 (9.2% return)
Today’s Game
Colorado (+150) @ Philadelphia (-170)
In the only game I like today Jorge De Le Rosa is matched up against J.A. Happ. De La Rosa has been pitching pretty good lately going 5-0 with a 2.50 ERA in the month of July. The lefty strikes out about a hitter per inning, gets more ground balls than fly balls, but walks a little too many at 3.84 BB/9. His walk rate is actually down from his 4.68 career rate and that is why he has enjoyed success this season. His ERA is 4.68 for the year, but he was roughed up pretty good in May and June. When he doesn’t issue free passes he can be a tough matchup. Happ has had success in his rookie season going 7-2 with a 2.97 ERA. His 6.45 strikeout rate and 2.97 walk rate are about average, but his hit rate of 7.47 seems a little low given the fact that he is a fly ball pitcher. His hit rate looks like it’s ticking up lately as he has allowed 18 hits in his last 19 innings, and his ERA has been rising and should continue to rise if his indicators stay the same. The Rockies have won 5 in a row while the Phillies have dropped 3 in a row and 5 out of 6. I look for these trends to continue and like the +150 odds the lefty De La Rosa is getting against a lefty heavy lineup.
Bets
$20 COL +150
Saturday, July 18, 2009
Giants Lose 2-1 in 14
I was right about the Pirates not scoring many runs, but the Giants offense was even worse. Their only run came off a Pittsburgh error. At -150, I still think that was one of the better bets I've seen lately. I'm not sure how many times we'll get better than -150 on Lincecum the rest of the year.
Portfolio: $1031 (11.9% return)
S&P 500: $940 (2.1% return)
Today's Game
Philadelphia (+110) @ Florida (-120)
In the only game I like today Joe Blanton is matched up against Josh Johnson. The strikeout and walk rates of both pitcher's are the basically the same. The main difference between the two is that Johnson has a little better stuff and gets more ground balls. Both have also been pitching well as of late, and their rates look pretty normal. The Phillies have a better offense and defense, and that is why I like them at +110.
Bets
$20 PHI +110
Portfolio: $1031 (11.9% return)
S&P 500: $940 (2.1% return)
Today's Game
Philadelphia (+110) @ Florida (-120)
In the only game I like today Joe Blanton is matched up against Josh Johnson. The strikeout and walk rates of both pitcher's are the basically the same. The main difference between the two is that Johnson has a little better stuff and gets more ground balls. Both have also been pitching well as of late, and their rates look pretty normal. The Phillies have a better offense and defense, and that is why I like them at +110.
Bets
$20 PHI +110
Friday, July 10, 2009
Rockies Win
The Rockies won 7-6 to add $20 to my portfolio. Both Hanson and Cook struggled, but the Rockies offense and bullpen were the difference.
Portfolio: $1020 (10.7% return)
S&P 500: $883 (-4.1% return)
Today's Game
Pittsburgh (+140) @ Philadelphia (-160)
Zach Duke is matched up against Joe Blanton in the only game I like today. The lefty Duke is a finesse ground ball pitcher who won't strikeout or walk many. His K/9 and BB/9 are normal, but his hit rate is depressed at 8.77 H/9 compared to a career average of 10.64 H/9. This will correct and is showing signs as he has given up 20 hits in his last 19 innings. Another thing that doesn't bode well for Duke is that he is inducing ground balls at the lowest rate in his career. Also, being lefty doesn't worry me against the Phillies as they have been swinging hot bats as of late. Blanton has medicore numbers at 5-4 with a 4.69 ERA, but is pitching well as of late. His K/9 rate is the highest of his career, and this is probably due to the switch to the National League. His H/9 and BB/9 are right along his career averages, but his ground ball rate is down. This is a problem in a homerun happy Philly ballpark, and he allowed a lot of homeruns early in the year. He has recently let up on the homeruns, allowing 2 in his last 19 1/3 innings, and the Pirates have hit the second least homeruns in the majors. So I'm not too worried about homeruns by the Pirates in this game. The Phillies have been playing well as of late and the Pirates have been the opposite. I generally dont' like to bet on games with this heavy of a favorite, but I think the Phillies are a pretty good bet to win.
Bets
$32 PHI -160
Portfolio: $1020 (10.7% return)
S&P 500: $883 (-4.1% return)
Today's Game
Pittsburgh (+140) @ Philadelphia (-160)
Zach Duke is matched up against Joe Blanton in the only game I like today. The lefty Duke is a finesse ground ball pitcher who won't strikeout or walk many. His K/9 and BB/9 are normal, but his hit rate is depressed at 8.77 H/9 compared to a career average of 10.64 H/9. This will correct and is showing signs as he has given up 20 hits in his last 19 innings. Another thing that doesn't bode well for Duke is that he is inducing ground balls at the lowest rate in his career. Also, being lefty doesn't worry me against the Phillies as they have been swinging hot bats as of late. Blanton has medicore numbers at 5-4 with a 4.69 ERA, but is pitching well as of late. His K/9 rate is the highest of his career, and this is probably due to the switch to the National League. His H/9 and BB/9 are right along his career averages, but his ground ball rate is down. This is a problem in a homerun happy Philly ballpark, and he allowed a lot of homeruns early in the year. He has recently let up on the homeruns, allowing 2 in his last 19 1/3 innings, and the Pirates have hit the second least homeruns in the majors. So I'm not too worried about homeruns by the Pirates in this game. The Phillies have been playing well as of late and the Pirates have been the opposite. I generally dont' like to bet on games with this heavy of a favorite, but I think the Phillies are a pretty good bet to win.
Bets
$32 PHI -160
Wednesday, July 1, 2009
2-1, Up $13
I was able to gain a little even though the Red Sox blew a 10-1 lead, Scott Baker labored through 5, and Albert Pujols hit 2 homeruns.
Portfolio: $1006 (9.2% return)
S&P 500: $919 (-0.2% return)
Today’s Games
New York Mets (+180) @ Milwaukee (-220)
Philadelphia (-110) @ Atlanta (-100)
The first game has Mike Pelfrey matched up against Yovani Gallardo. Pelfrey is a ground ball pitcher who pitches to contact. He won’t strikeout many or walk many, and he allows very few homeruns. Keeping the ball on the ground and in the ballpark and is key when facing the power hitting Brewers. The Mets lineup is banged up, but they draw a decent amount of walks and strikeout less than any other team. This should play out well against Gallardo, who seems to have lost his control lately. You can see my analysis on Gallardo from 6/26. He has a depressed hit rate and is walking too many batters. If the Mets can lay off his curveball, which he hasn’t been able to get over the plate, they should be able to sit on fastballs and score some runs. This game may come down to the bullpens. At +180, this is a good value play.
The second game has Cole Hamels going up against Jair Jurrjens. Hamels has had some really bad luck leading to a 4-4 record with a 4.44 ERA. His 8.44 K/9 and 1.78 BB/9 rates are the best of his career, but his 10.89 H/9 rate is way above his 8.24 H/9 career average. Balls will eventually stop finding green at this rate for opposing hitters. Jurrjens is a solid major league pitcher who gets a lot of ground balls and has a 5-6 record with a 2.93 ERA. His K/9, BB/9, and H/9 rates are all seem to be normal given his brief history. His ERA was 3.68 last year, so his 2.93 ERA this year tells me he’s stranding more base runners than normal, which is mainly luck. The Phillies have been in a funk as of late and their ace should pick them up tonight.
Bets
$20 NYM +180
$22 PHI -110
I will be out of town the next 5 days, so I’m not sure how much I’ll post.
Portfolio: $1006 (9.2% return)
S&P 500: $919 (-0.2% return)
Today’s Games
New York Mets (+180) @ Milwaukee (-220)
Philadelphia (-110) @ Atlanta (-100)
The first game has Mike Pelfrey matched up against Yovani Gallardo. Pelfrey is a ground ball pitcher who pitches to contact. He won’t strikeout many or walk many, and he allows very few homeruns. Keeping the ball on the ground and in the ballpark and is key when facing the power hitting Brewers. The Mets lineup is banged up, but they draw a decent amount of walks and strikeout less than any other team. This should play out well against Gallardo, who seems to have lost his control lately. You can see my analysis on Gallardo from 6/26. He has a depressed hit rate and is walking too many batters. If the Mets can lay off his curveball, which he hasn’t been able to get over the plate, they should be able to sit on fastballs and score some runs. This game may come down to the bullpens. At +180, this is a good value play.
The second game has Cole Hamels going up against Jair Jurrjens. Hamels has had some really bad luck leading to a 4-4 record with a 4.44 ERA. His 8.44 K/9 and 1.78 BB/9 rates are the best of his career, but his 10.89 H/9 rate is way above his 8.24 H/9 career average. Balls will eventually stop finding green at this rate for opposing hitters. Jurrjens is a solid major league pitcher who gets a lot of ground balls and has a 5-6 record with a 2.93 ERA. His K/9, BB/9, and H/9 rates are all seem to be normal given his brief history. His ERA was 3.68 last year, so his 2.93 ERA this year tells me he’s stranding more base runners than normal, which is mainly luck. The Phillies have been in a funk as of late and their ace should pick them up tonight.
Bets
$20 NYM +180
$22 PHI -110
I will be out of town the next 5 days, so I’m not sure how much I’ll post.
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