Verlander Out Pitches Cahill But Loses, Down $34

Justin Verlander pitched pretty good as he allowed 7 baserunners (6 hits and 1 walk) over 7 innings while striking out 8, but he allowed 3 runs. Cahill on the other hand allowed 9 baserunners (5 hits and 4 walks) in 6 1/3 innings while striking out 3, but he somehow only gave up 1 run. Verlander's start would produce a win 8 out of 10 times going against Cahill's, but yesterday was not was not one of those 8 days. The game was delayed for a few hours due to rain and that may have had some impact. I would have to say this is my toughest loss so far this year since I was pretty confident in this one and the pitchers performed according to plan.

Portfolio: $836 (-9.2% return)
S&P 500: $1089 (18.2% return)

Today's Games (6/1)

Philadelphia (+120) @ Atlanta (-140)
Cincinnati (+110) @ St. Louis (-130)
Arizona (+110) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-130)

In the first game Cole Hamels is matched up against Tim Hudson. Hamels is off to a decent start and his strikeouts are up, but so are his walks. He has gotten his walks under control the last few starts and they are right on line with his solid career average of 2.34 BB/9, and that has resulted in a 2-1 record with a 2.25 ERA over his last 3 starts. Hudson is off to a pretty solid start, but his indicators show he may be in for some trouble. His strikeout rate of 3.78 is way below his career average of 6.05 and his walk rate of 3.50 is higher than his career average of 2.78. The reason he has been pitching well is a depressed hit rate. It's currently at 6.72 compared to his career average of 8.49. Once those hits start piling up things will not be good. I know both teams are heading in opposite directions right now, but I'll take Hamels as an underdog in this matchup anyday.

In the second game Johnny Cueto is matched up against P.J. Walters. Cueto is off to a fine start and his indicators, especially lately, are looking pretty good. Walters is making his 3rd career start and really has not had an impressive last couple of years in the minors. In his last 2 seasons in AAA his ERA was 4.87 and 4.54. I don't think I have to over think this one. I'll take the underdog with the hot pitcher over the average minor league pitcher. The only reason the Reds are underdogs is because they seem to have a mental block against the Cardinals, but I think this is the year where they overcome that and I think I can start with this game.

In the third game Dan Haren is matched up against John Ely. Haren has probably been the biggest tough luck starter (Greinke is right up there) in the game. His indicators are off the charts, but his hit rate is also off the charts and he has allowed a high percentage of home runs. I do not see his hit rate and home run rate staying at this pace. With average or even a little luck he should be in the CY Young race. Ely is off to a great start and has really impressed a lot of people. He has not walked too many batter and gets his fair share of strikeouts. His minor league numbers show he can command the zone, but not as good as he has shown so far. I expect him to start handing out some free passes and things to get a little bumpy. In this game I see two pitchers that the law of averages will effect. I like Haren as the underdog.

Bets

$10 PHI +120
$10 CIN +110
$10 ARI +110

One Game Today

Portfolio: $870 (-5.5% return)
S&P 500: $1089 (18.2% return)

Today's Game

Oakland (+150) @ Detroit (-170)

In the only game today the youngster Trevor Cahill is matched up against Tigers ace Justin Verlander. Cahill is having a decent season so far with a 3.31 ERA, but I do not believe that will hold up. He is a ground ball pitcher who's strikeout rate is fairly below the major league average. He will not walk too many and he's better than the average there, but the reason he's off to a good start is his low hit rate. His hit rate of 7.39 per 9 is in line with Johan Santana's career rate, so I do not see that holding up since his stuff is no where near Santana's. Cahill has also struggled away from home with a 4.56 ERA vs. a home ERA of 0.77. Verlander has had an up and down season, but is still 5-3 with a 3.74 ERA. He got off to a rough start, then settled down but was roughed up in his last start. His strikeouts are walks are worse than last year and he has been helped out by a generous hit rate, but even with that he is still a pretty good pitcher. He has been strong at home this year and threw a complete game allowing only 1 run against the A's two weeks ago. At -170, this line looks a little low for a pitching mismatch this big. I will bet as much as I can without going over my max of 5%.

Bets

$34 DET -170

Royals Lose 1-0, Down $10

Greinke cannot catch a break. He is now 1-6 with a 3.39 ERA. This is an extreme example of how wins are more of a luck stat, especially in today's game with relievers factoring in almost every game.

Portfolio: $870 (-5.5% return)
S&P 500: $1089 (18.2% return)

Today's Games

None

Two Wins - Up $20

Portfolio: $880 (-4.5% return)
S&P 500: $1089 (18.2% return)

Today's Games

Kansas City (+120) @ Boston (-140)

In the only game today Zack Greinke is matched up against Clay Buchholz. Greinke has been the victim of some bad luck this year, but his indicators are still pretty strong. He was rocked for the first time in his last start, but I see that as a fluke. Buchholz is off to a solid start, but by looking at his indicators it looks like he will regress some. I do not see him holding his 3.07 ERA. I like the Royals as the dog in this one.

Bets

$10 KC +120

Two Games Friday

Portfolio: $860 (-6.7% return)
S&P 500: $1103 (19.8% return)

Today's Games (5/28)

St. Louis (-140) @ Chicago Cubs (+120)
Seattle (-120) @ Los Angeles Angels (+100)

In the first game Chris Carpenter is matched up against Randy Wells. Carpenter is a top 5 starter in the National League and his indicators look pretty strong this year as his strikeout rate is at a career high. He has given up 9 long balls this year after only giving up 7 all of last year, but I actually think that number last year was a fluke. He should end up with around 20 for the season, so I don't look too much into that number. Wells is a strike thrower who is turning into a solid young starter, but he won't fan a ton of hitters. Wells is coming off what may be his best start of the season while Carpenter is coming off a poor start by his standards. I feel the line should favor the Cardinals more with Carpenter pitching.

In the second game Cliff Lee is matched up against Scott Kazmir. Lee is on top of his game again this year as his control is pinpoint. He has walked only 1 batter in 36 2/3 innings this year. His super low walk rate is the key to him being one of the top pitchers in the league. He is also striking out about a batter an inning more this year. He was roughed up pretty good in his last start, but that happens from time to time with him because he doesn't not blow batters away and keeps the ball in the zone. He usually bounces back OK from those types of outings though. Kazmir has struggled all year and there are not too many signs of him turning it around. He may be hiding an injury as his strikeout rate is by far the lowest in his career and he is walking more batters than any time in the last 4 years. I know the Mariners have one of the worst offenses in the game, but they have been waking up lately and I don't think they'll need to score too many runs with Lee on the mound. I believe the line is so low for this much of a pitching mismatch because of how poorly the Mariners have been playing.

Bets

$14 STL -140
$12 SEA -120

Atlanta Wins, Up $10

Portfolio: $860 (-6.7% return)
S&P 500: $1068 (16% return)

Today's Games

None

Down $5 From Sunday

Portfolio: $850 (-8.4% return)
S&P 500: $1074 (16.7% return)

Today's Games (5/26)

Atlanta (-140) @ Florida (+120)

In the only game today Tommy Hanson is matched up against Nate Robertson. Hanson got off to a solid start, but was rocked for 8 runs in 1 2/3 innings in his last start. His indicators this season are top notch, so I'm not too worried about his last start. Even two starts ago he gave up 5 runs in 7 innings, but he did strikeout 10. It just looks like he's been the victim of bad luck the last couple of starts, and that means it's a great time to bet on him. He's going up against the soft tossing lefty, Nate Robertson, who is a below average pitcher who will give up his fair share of runs. At -140, I'll take Hanson over Robertson any day.

Bet

$14 ATL -140

Astros Lose - Down $10

Portfolio: $855 (-7.2% return)
S&P 500: $1088 (18.1% return)

Today's Games

Florida (-140) @ Chicago White Sox (+120)
Colorado (+130) @ Kansas City (-150)

In the first game Josh Johnson is matched up against Freddy Garcia. Johnson is off to a great start and his indicators (K/9, BB/9, H/9) are as strong as ever. I do not see him slowing down much and I expect him to be in the CY Young talks all summer long. The veteran Garcia is an average pitcher at best. I like the Marlins at -140 and I think they should be favored by more, but since this game is in the American League the Sox have the DH advantage.

In the second game Aaron Cook is matched up against Zack Greinke. Cook is an average major league pitcher that always keeps his team in the game. He gets a lot of ground balls and does not strike out many. He has been walking more batters than usual this year, and that's not a good sign since he has very little margin for error. Greinke is having another CY Young caliber season, but is off to a 1-4 start due to some bad luck. His indicators are strong and I expect him to start picking up some wins. At -150, I think the Royals with Greinke on the hill are a pretty good play.

Bets

$14 FLA -140
$15 KC -150

One Game Tonight

Portfolio: $865 (-6.1% return)
S&P 500: $1088 (18.1% return)

Today's Game

Tampa Bay (-160) @ Houston (+150)

In today's only game Jeff Niemann is matched up against Wandy Rodriguez. Niemann has gotten off to a great start at 3-0 with a 2.54 ERA, but he's definitely pitching over his head. His hit rate is roughly 2 hits per nine lower than last year and while his ground ball to fly ball ratio is up a little, it should not effect his hit rate that much. Over his last 3 starts his hit rate has regressed and I expect to see a bump in his ERA soon. Rodriguez has gotten off to a rocky start this year and it's mainly due to a decreased strikeout rate and an increased hit rate. I do not really get the strikeout rate, but I would expect him to get that back pretty soon. This year he's at 5.28 K's per nine, and the last 2 years he's been around 8.50. His hit rate is about 2 hits per nine higher than it has been the last few years, and with a pretty good increase in his ground ball to fly ball ratio that does not make much sense. I expect him to start picking up his game soon. With this game being played in the National League I think the Astros at +150 are a solid play.

Bets

$10 HOU +150

Win One, Lose One – Up $6

I'll take the $6. Pettitte started his regression and Lester found the strike zone while Liriano was roughed up.

Portfolio: $865 (-6.1% return)
S&P 500: $1072 (16.4% return)

Today's Games

None

First Games of the Year

Portfolio: $859 (-6.7% return)
S&P 500: $1115 (21.1% return)

Today's Games

Tampa Bay (+130) @ New York Yankees (-150)
Minnesota (+120) @ Boston (-140)

In the first game James Shields is matched up against Andy Pettitte. Both pitchers are off to fast starts, but it looks like only Shields will be able to keep it up. Shields strikeout rate is up and his walk and hit rates are normal. His 9.83 K/9 rate is up significantly from 6.84 last year and his career average of 7.32. Pettitte on the other hand has a strikeout rate below his average, walk rate above, and hit rate below. That means his 1.79 ERA is due for a big correction. With Tampa being the dog, I think they are a good play.

In the second game Francisco Liriano is matched up against Jon Lester. Liriano is off to a solid start and has the indicators to back it up. His strikeout rate isn't what it was 3 years ago, but it's still pretty good, and his walk rate is at about the same level. He looks like he is fully recovered from his surgery. Lester has had an up and down season so far, and his walk rate is the main culprit. His walk rate is up almost 50% from the last two years, and that can lead to inconsistency. With two solid front line starters I'll take the one with the better control, especially with him being the dog.

Bets

$20 TB +130
$20 MIN +120

I Plan To Start Next Week

I plan on picking a few games here and there starting sometime next week.