Yankees Win, Down $10

CC Sabathia didn't pitch great and got lucky. He gave up 11 hits in 6 innings, but only allowed 2 runs. More times than not he should have given up more than 2 runs.

Portfolio: $812 (-11.8% return)
S&P 500: $1178 (27.9% return)

Today's Games

None

Elimination Game In The AL

Portfolio: $822 (-10.7% return)
S&P 500: $1182 (28.3% return)

Today's Games

Texas (+150) @ NY Yankees (-170)

In game 5 of the ALCS C.J. Wilson is matched up against C.C. Sabathia. Wilson has pitched pretty well this postseason and CC has had one good and one average start. I like the Rangers in this game because CC is not a big game pitcher. I was shocked he came through last year and will be shocked if he comes through again. Being a Cleveland Indians fan I saw him always fold under pressure. I don't care how CJ Wilson pitches because I don't have faith in Sabathia and I think the Yankees will be able to see that in him too during the game.

Bets

$10 TEX +150

Lee Masterful as Rangers Go Up 2-1, Portfolio Up $10

Now that was fun to watch last night. I don't know how to explain it other than it was a work of art. Lee was hitting the corners on every pitch and had the Yankees fooled all night. It's not that often you see so many strike outs looking.

Portfolio: $822 (-10.7% return)
S&P 500: $1166 (26.6% return)

Today's Games

None

Giants Win, Up $30

That was a pretty good game Saturday night and it went just as I thought.

Portfolio: $812 (-11.8% return)
S&P 500: $1176 (27..7% return)

Today's Game (Monday 10/18)

Texas (-120) @ NY Yankees (-110)

Game 3 of the ALCS features two lefties, Cliff Lee and Andy Pettitte. Lee has quickly become one of the better postseason pitchers in recent history and dominated in his two starts against the Rays. He fared pretty well against the Yankees this season and won 2 games against them in last years World Series. It should be fun to watch him going up against the best hitting lineup in baseball because he challenges everybody. He never gives in as he's only walked 18 batters in 228 innings including the postseason. He strikes out his fair share of batters, but really doesn't have a great strikeout pitch. Most of his punch outs come from fastballs. Pettitte threw like his normal self in game 2 of the ALDS. Hitter's just had a hard time squaring him up. I don't see Lee slowing down and I feel the Rangers have a confidence with him on the mound, so I like the slightly favored Rangers to go up 2-1.

Bets

$12 TEX -120

NLCS Game 1

Portfolio: $782 (-15.1% return)
S&P 500: $1176 (27.7% return)

Today's Game

San Francisco (+150) @ Philadelphia (-170)

In game 1 of the NCLS Tim Lincecum is matched up against Roy Halladay. I'm not sure if there has ever been two hotter pitchers to face each other in the postseason. Here's their combined numbers from their division series starts: 2 wins, 18 innings, 2 hits, 2 walks, and 22 strikeouts. Each pitcher faced the other team once this year, and both were in April. Lincecum dominated while Halladay struggled. That was so long ago though. I do believe Lincecum has handled the Phillies pretty well in the past, even in Philly. His change up is his best pitch and that kills lefties. I think when Lincecum is on that he is the best pitcher in the game. If his blister is not an issue I look for him to out duel Halladay in what should be a fun game to watch. Look for the Giants to be aggressive on offense by swinging early in the count and for the Phillies to be aggressive on the base paths as Lincecum is poor at managing the running game. I think the Phillies will take Lincecum deep once and the Giants will score 2-3 runs from multiple hits in an inning. I see the final score being 4-2 in favor of the Giants.

Bets

$20 SF +150

Lincecum Unhittable, Up $0

Tim Lincecum tried his best to match Roy Halladay by throwing a complete game 2 hitter. He also added 14 strikeouts with only 1 walk. What we saw the last two days is pretty rare. I know pitching is always good in the postseason, but not this good. It should be fun to see how this plays out. A Lincecum vs. Halladay matchup would be very good.

Portfolio: $782 (-15.1% return)
S&P 500: $1165 (26.5% return)

Today's Games

None

0-2, Down $23

I couldn't have been more wrong about the Reds/Phillies game. Volquez had a deer in the headlights look while Halladay looked like he's pitched in the postseason for years. What a great performance by Halladay.

Portfolio: $772 (-16.2% return)
S&P 500: $1160 (26% return)

Today's Games (Thursday 10/7)

Atlanta (+140) @ San Francisco (-160)

In the only game I like Thursday Derek Lowe is matched up against Tim Lincecum. Lowe has had a typical season for him and has really come on as of late. He is one of the best ground ball pitchers in the game and has very good control. Everything seems to be clicking for him lately as his strikeout rate is around 9 per 9 innings when his season and career average is around 6. He was a big reason the Braves held on at the end of the season after leading the division for most of the year. Lincecum had an up and down year but still managed a 16-10 record with a 3.43 ERA. By his standards that is average, but he has really come on down the stretch. Whatever got into him in the middle of the season is now gone. He has been more dominant that Lowe down the stretch and is a big reason the Giants made the playoffs. If you have read this blog in the past you know that I think Lincecum is the best pitcher in the game. After winning 2 CY Youngs in 4 years there is only one thing left for him to prove, and that is if he's a big game pitcher. The Giants have the worst offense in the playoffs and one of their main bats is a rookie (Posey), but their pitching from start to finish is unmatchable. I'll take Lincecum in his first postseason start.

Bets

$16 SF -160

Let the Postseason Begin

Portfolio: $795 (-13.7% return)
S&P 500: $1161 (26.1% return)

Today's Games (Wednesday 10/6)

Texas (+110) @ Tampa Bay (-130)
Cincinnati (+190) @ Philadelphia (-230)

The first game is the battle of the lefties as Cliff Lee faces David Price. Both pitchers have been on top of their games and both have had success in the postseason before. I'm not sure if Josh Hamilton will be the same, and he is what makes their offense tick. That's just plain bad luck that he had to hurt his ribs. I know he played the last two games and hit a home run, but there is no way he is feeling normal. I think it's a big home field advantage for the Rays even though they have some of the worst fans. They are used to playing in the worst facility in the majors. The Rays have also hit Lee pretty good this year, beating him 3 times. Price pitched average in his only match up against the Rangers and received a no decision. Price has also been dominant at home with a 9-2 record and 1.96 ERA. As you can tell, I like the Rays in game 1 of the ALDS.

In the second game Edinson Volquez is matched up against Roy Halladay and the heavily favored Phillies. Volquex has pitched well lately and has great stuff, but he still struggles with control. He hasn't faced the Phillies this year, and in fact no one has faced him more than a couple of games. Raul Ibanez has 9 at bats against Volquez and that leads the team. I would say this favors Volquez. Halladay has been his usual dominant self lately and is coming off a complete game 2 hitter (no walks). He faced the Reds twice this year and pitched really well. The Reds are familiar with Halladay as three players have faced him over 30 times. Overall everyone has decent numbers against him. Also keep in mind that Halladay has never pitched in the postseason before and the Phillies are the favorite to win the World Series, so we'll see how he reacts to pressure. One way to tell if he's tight is if he comes out walking people. He never walks batters and that is one of the main reasons he is so good. I think the Reds are a good bet as a +190 underdog given that they have had success against Halladay and this is his first postseason start.

Bets

$13 TB -130
$10 CIN +190

2-0, Up $36

The Rockies pulled the game out in the bottom of the night and Chacin struggled, but he was able to just get out of enough trouble. He only lasted 4 innings. In the other game Lincecum continued his dominance and Latos struggled.

Portfolio: $795 (-13.7% return)
S&P 500: $1110 (20.5% return)

Today's Games

None

Finally, Another Post

I kind of forgot about this for a couple of weeks. The Astros won that game two weeks ago, so I made $14. Today is the start of the NFL season (well, Thursday was), but I will not have any games because the beginning of the season is too unpredictable because of all the roster turnover the NFL promotes. I do like the Browns +3 against the Bucs, but I don't want to bet it.

Portfolio: $759 (-17.6% return)
S&P 500: $1110 (20.5% return)

Today's Games

Arizona (+170) @ Colorado (-190)
San Francisco (+130) @ San Diego (-140)

In the first game I like today Ian Kennedy is matched up against Jhoulys Chacin. Kennedy is just an average pitcher having an average year, but he has been hot lately. I do not think he can keep it up against a red hot Rockies team. Chacin has been impressive ever since getting called up this summer, and he has really good stuff. This kid has ace like potential, and has dominated the Diamonbacks this year. I look for it to continue. When you think of Jimenez and Chacin on the mound, and Carlos Gonzalez on offense, the Rockies have a bright future.

In the second game I like, and what should be the best game of the day, Tim Lincecum is matched up against Mat Latos. Lincecum looks to have found his rhythm lately and that makes him the best pitcher in the game. Latos is a top CY Young candidate and has very similar indicators to Lincecum. Like I said this will be a great game, but I think Lincecum will out duel Latos. I especially like Lincecum as the underdog.

Bets

$19 COL -190
$20 SF +130

Oakland Lost Friday, Down $20

Portfolio: $745 (-19.1% return)
S&P 500: $1049 (13.9% return)

Today's Games (Tuesday 8/31)

St. Louis (-160) @ Houston (+140)

In the only game I like today Chris Carpenter is matched up against Wandy Rodriguez. Carpenter is having a great year at 14-4 with a 2.93 ERA, but he has not been himself lately. His record and ERA might not show, but his indicators are something to keep an eye on. His strikeouts are down and his hits are up. Usually hits being up is just bad luck, but when you add in that strikeouts are down that tells me that his stuff is not as good as usual. He might turn it around, but I wouldn't be surprised if he struggles a little in this game. Throw in the fact that his road numbers are not as good as home too. Rodriguez has probably been the hottest starter in the NL since the All-Star break and has gone 1-1 with a 1.67 ERA in his last 4 starts. His indicators are rock solid, so as long as he doesn't all of a sudden lose his dominant curve ball I look for him to keep it up. I like the Astros as the underdog against a struggling Cardinals team.

Bet

$10 HOU +140

0-2 on Tuesday, Down $22

This has been a rough season. I haven't been able to get on a roll.

Portfolio: $765 (-16.9% return)
S&P 500: $1047 (13.7% return)

Today's Games (Friday 8/27)

Oakland (+120) @ Texas (-140)

In the only game today Brett Anderson is matched up against Tommy Hunter. Anderson has been on the DL most of the year with elbow issues, but he seems to be okay. If he is healthy he has a chance to become one of the best lefties in the game. He has a good fastball and curve ball and he is accurate. He can rack up the strikeouts and is also a ground ball pitcher. That's a pretty good formula for success. Hunter is an average major league pitcher at best and I really don't know how he has a 3.68 ERA. He doesn't miss many bats so that tells me his stuff is below average. He is good at throwing strikes, but it looks like he is benefiting from a low hit rate. I still think there's a chance Oakland can make a push on Texas, and it all starts here. I like the A's as the underdog with one of the more underrated young pitchers on the mound.

Bet

$20 OAK +120

Two For Tuesday

Portfolio: $787 (-14.5% return)
S&P 500: $1067 (15.9% return)

Today's Games (Tuesday 8/24)

Florida (-120) @ New York Mets (-100)
Minnesota (+120) @ Texas (-140)

In the first game Josh Johnson is matched up against R.A. Dickey. Johnson is a top candidate for the NL CY Young but has hit a little rough patch, but is coming of an 8 inning, 2 run performance. He's just been giving up a high number of hits, which most likely means it's just luck and that it will turn around. The knuckleballer Dickey is having a career year and the main reason why is his control. His walks are really low for a knuckleballer and his pitches have been moving just enough to keep hitters from squaring it up. But as with all knuckleballers you never know what your going to get since it's such a feel pitch. Both teams have been playing about the same recently and are within one game of each other. I'll take my chances with Johnson and what I think are pretty good odds.

In the second game Carl Pavano is matched up against Colby Lewis. Pavano was having a career year until recently where he is just giving up a lot of hits. His indicators are almost identical to his great 2004 season. His control is pinpoint and he mainly just lets the defense behind him do his job. But like I said a lot of balls have been finding green over his last few starts, but that will not last as things always even out. Lewis is a top candidate for comeback player of the year. He came out of nowhere, ok Japan, to put up a great season so far. His indicators are pretty darn good considering what was expected of him this season. He has been strong as of late but has been the tough luck loser in 3 of his last 4 starts. I think this will start to wear on him against a solid Twins team that has been hot. Texas looks like they might be starting to slip a little, so I like Pavano to rebound and the Twins as the underdog.

Bets

$12 FLA -120
$10 MIN +120

Yankees Win Thursday, Up $10

Portfolio: $787 (-14.5% return)
S&P 500: $1079 (17.2% return)

Today's Games

None

A's Lose a Pitching Duel, Down $10

Brett Anderson pitched pretty well, definitely well enough to win, but Felix Hernandez was great as the Mariners won 2-0. On the positive side I only bet $10.

Portfolio: $777 (-15.6% return)
S&P 500: $1089 (18.2% return)

Today's Games (Thursday 8/12)

New York Yankees (-230) @ Kansas City (+190)

In the only game today CC Sabathia is matched up against Bruce Chen. Sabathia has been decent this year, but not as dominant as in the past. I believe this is due to that fact that he knows he is going to be pitching a lot of innings and in the post season so he is saving himself. This is when he has kicked it into gear the last couple of years, and I expect him to do the same this year. With the Yankees lineup he does not have to go out and throw a gem, and he knows that. His indicators are average even though he is 14-5 with a 3.14 ERA. Bruce Chen is having an average season for himself. He is an average major league pitcher who will generally keep his team in the game. But this start he is facing an All-Star team so I don't think that will be the case. I'm not sure why the Yankees are only favored at -230 because I think they should be more towards -300. The Yankees with CC on the mound are a good value play. Hopefully I can make up that $10 easily on this game.

Bets

$23 NYY -230

Shields Gets Hammered, Rays Lose - Down $28

Wow, I can't believe how off I was on that game. I guess a home run pitcher against a home run hitting lineup is not the best matchup for the pitcher.

Portfolio: $787 (-14.5% return)
S&P 500: $1128 (22.5% return)

Today's Games (Tuesday 8/10)

Oakland (+120) @ Seattle (-140)

In the only game I like Tuesday Brett Anderson is matched up against Felix Hernandez. Anderson is making his 3rd start since coming off the DL with an elbow injury. That was his second time on the DL for his elbow, and that's usually not a good sign. He struggled in his first outing back and was pretty good in his second. He has some really good stuff and when healthy I think he can be one of the best left handers in the game. He looks a little out of shape, so if we ever decides to take care of his body it will make him that much better. Hernandez is an ace, but his struggling lately. His strikeouts are down and his walks are up. I start to wonder if he's lost interest just like Ichiro has since the team is so bad. Their offense is just anemic. Oakland is playing well recently and is still in the AL West race, so if Anderson's elbow holds up he should have a good outing. I like them as the underdog in this game.

Bets

$10 OAK +120

2-1, but Even

I was one inning away from being 3-0 and up $42, but Matt Lindstrom of the Astros let up 4 runs in the bottom of the 9th against the Brewers to blow the game. Oh well, at least I didn't lose any ground.

Portfolio: $815 (-11.5% return)
S&P 500: $1122 (21.8% return)

Today's Games

Tampa Bay (-140) @ Toronto (+130)

In the only game today James Shields is matched up against Brad Mills. Shields is coming off a dominant performance against the Yankees and has been great as of late. He really has been good all year long, but just suffered through some bad luck in the middle of the season. His indicators are the best on the awesome Rays staff, and his only weakness is home runs. His indicators show that he should keep on rolling against the Blue Jays. I know the Blue Jays are the top home run hitting team in the majors, but I think Shields is too much in a zone right now for that to matter. Mills is making his 4th career start and is coming off an impressive start against the Orioles, but that was against the Orioles. I expect him to struggle against the Rays today. I like the Rays in a max bet.

Bets

$28 TB -140

Phillies Pull It Out In 10, Up $30

Roy Oswalt pitched great through six and then the wheels kind of came off, and Volstad labored through 5 2/3, allowing 8 hits and walking 3 but somehow only allowed 2 runs.

Portfolio: $815 (-11.5% return)
S&P 500: $1126 (22.3% return)

Today's Games

Colorado (-150) @ Pittsburgh (+130)
Los Angeles Angels (-100) @ Detroit (-120)
Houston (+110) @ Milwaukee (-130)

In the first game Jason Hammel is matched up against Zah Duke. Hammel is slowly becoming one of the most underrated pitchers in the game. He has good stuff and doesn't have trouble finding the strike zone. He has pitched pretty well as of late but has had some bad luck, going 0-3 with a 5.33 ERA in his last 4 starts. He probably should have a win or two and an ERA in the 3's. Facing a young Pirates lineup for the first time should change his luck. Duke is a borderline major league starter and can have the occasional lefty dominant performance, but I don't think he'll do it against a good hitting Rockies lineup. He really struggles and is probably more suited for the bullpen. I like the Rockies.

In the second game Jered Weaver is matched up against Justin Verlander. Weaver leads the AL in strikeouts and is having his best season as a pro, and his indicators back it up. I would classify him as a legitimate ace now. Verlander hasn't been as dominant this year as last. His strikeouts are down and his walks are up. He is having some decent control problems as of late and until he fixes that things will not go well. The Angels have a good hitting team and I think this will be a good pitching duel, but with the Tigers in a free fall lately I like the Angels.

In the third game red hot Wandy Rodriguez is matched up against Dave Bush. Rodriguez has been on fire as he has not allowed a run in his last 2 starts. He has great command of the strike zone and it looks like his curve is working again. He has one of the best curve balls in the league, and I look for him to continue his run of dominance. Bush on the other hand has been getting tagged lately. It almost looks like he's been throwing batting practice, but it also looks like he has been the victim of bad luck. His luck will eventually turn around for the better, but I don't think it will matter because Rodriguez should have another dominant performance against a strikeout prone Brewers team. I like the Astros and I can't figure why they are the underdogs. I am going to put a little more on them.

Bets

$15 COL -150
$10 LAA -100
$20 HOU +110

One Game Thursday

Portfolio: $785 (-14.8% return)
S&P 500: $1127 (22.4% return)

Today's Game (Thursday 8/5)

Philadelphia (-130) @ Florida (+110)

In the only game today Roy Oswalt is matched up against Chris Volstad. Oswalt is looking to bounce back after a poor start in his debut with the Phillies. Looking at his numbers it looks like he is mainly getting unlucky. He is giving up a high amount of hits, and that will eventually change because his strikeouts and walks are the same. This tells me that his stuff is still there. Volstad is coming off 2 average starts, but it looks like he got lucky. His ERA over those starts is 4.09, but his WHIP is 1.64. His ERA should be above 5. He is struggling to miss bats and can't seem to find the strike zone. He has walked 6 in his last 11 innings. If he keeps that up he will not last too long against Philly, even with Howard and Victorino out. I like the Phillies with a max bet (5%).

Bet

$39 PHI -130

2-0, Up $24

The Reds took care of business as Travis Wood was dominant and the Astros won even though Jake Westbrook was solid in his major league debut.

Portfolio: $785 (-14.8% return)
S&P 500: $1120 (21.6% return)

Today's Games

None

1-1 on Sunday, Up $6

Both games didn't go as I thought, and the Phillies had to pull out the game in extra innings. Cole Hamels was just unlucky Sunday afternoon. He allowed just 6 base runners (all hits) in 7 innings and struck out 10, but allowed 4 runs (2 on a Dunn HR). Lannan on the other hand allowed 8 base runners in 5 innings but only gave up 2 runs. Usually those numbers would be switched, but that's baseball. In the other game Johnson threw a dud for the first time in months and Garland held his own and showed why he is the ace of the staff. At least I'm up $6 since I decided the put more money on the Phillies.

Portfolio: $761 (-17.4% return)
S&P 500: $1102 (19.7% return)

Today's Games (Monday 8/2)

Cincinnati (-170) @ Pittsburgh (+150)
Houston (+140) @ St. Louis (-160)

In the first game rookie Travis Wood is matched up against Ross Ohlendorf. Wood has been phenominal ever since getting called up a month and a half ago, going 1-1 with a 2.87 ERA over 6 starts. He has been the victim of some bad luck in the wins column, but his indicators are rock solid for a rookie. Ohlendorf is having a mediocre season. His strikeouts and walks are both up from last year. He doesn't have great stuff, but can pitch well from time to time. The Pirates are in a slide having lost their last 4 and they will be facing the rookie Wood for the first time. The Reds are coming off a series win over the division leading Braves and look to keep up the good play against the lowly, but young and talented, Pirates. I like the Reds.

In the second game Brett Myers is matched up against newly acquired Jake Westbrook. Myers has been pretty good all season long, but not too many people have noticed since he's playing on the lowly Astros. His indicators are solid and is coming off a dominant complete game 4 hitter while striking out 12. He has had the Cardinals number this year going 2-1 with a 1.71 ERA in three starts. Westbrook will be making his first start for the Cardinals on extended rest. He was supposed to pitch Saturday, but was traded so he will have an extra 2 days rest. That may not be the best thing for the sinkerballer since the harder he throws the flatter his sinker becomes. He will not miss many bats, so when his sinker is flat it can get ugly. But when his sinker is on he can breeze through innings. I think with the added rest and the fact that he will be pumped to make his first start for his new team will cause him to overthrow. I like the Astros in this one.

Bets

$17 CIN -170
$10 HOU +140

Oswalt Throws A Dud

That was not the type of performance the Phillies hoped to see from their newly acquired pitcher. Maybe the whole trade process affected in mentally, which was probably the case since he's been with the Astros for so long.

Portfolio: $755 (-18% return)
S&P 500: $1102 (19.7% return)

Today's Games

Philadelphia (-170) @ Washington (+150)
Florida (-140) @ San Diego (+120)

In the first game Cole Hamels is matched up against John Lannan. Hamels is having an average year and can't seem to turn the corner. His strikeouts are up but so are his walks. His hits are down so that also tells me his stuff is better this year. I like him to be strong down the stretch. Lannan was just called up since Strasburg was put on the DL. Lannan really struggled when he was up earlier this year and that does not surprise me. He can't miss bats. His strikeout rate was 2.88 per nine when he was sent down. That's not good when facing a hot Phillies lineup.

In the second game Josh Johnson is facing Jon Garland. Johnson is one of the leading CY young candidates in the NL and his indicators show it. He let up more than 2 earned runs (3) in his last start for the first time in a while. I look for his dominance to continue against a light hitting Padres team. Garland has put up some good numbers recently and very well could continue that. He is the ace of this staff so far and I expect this to be a good game, but I just don't think the Padres can score enough runs off Johnson.

Bets

$34 PHI -170
$14 FLA -140

One Game Friday

Portfolio: $791 (-14.1% return)
S&P 500: $1102 (19.7% return)

Today's Games (7/30)

Philadelphia (-180) @ Washington (+160)

In the only game I like this Friday newly acquired Roy Oswalt is matched up against Craig Stammen. Oswalt was just traded yesterday and will barely get to introduce himself before taking the mound tonight. He is putting together a solid season and his indicators are the best they've been in years. I'm not too worried about his last start when he let up 6 runs in 5 innings. I think he will step up his game for his first start on a new team. Stammen has struggled in the majors because he gives up too many hits and doesn't get many swings and misses, and when you're facing a red hot Phillies team that's not good. I like the Phillies in a rout.

Bets

$36 PHI -180

Greinke Gets Rocked, Royals Lose - Down $22

Just a little bit off on that one.

Portfolio: $791 (-14.1% return)
S&P 500: $1114 (21% return)

Today's Games

None

1-1, Up $10

The Indians lost the first game even though Masterson threw well enough to win. Davis also threw well and got a little lucky in stranding a few more runners. In the second game Lincecum got touched in the second for 2 runs but other than that he managed the game well even though he didn't have his best stuff. Lincecum threw 8 and the Giants won 3-2 in 10.

Portfolio: $813 (-11.7% return)
S&P 500: $1103 (19.8% return)

Today's Games (Monday)

Minnesota (-110) @ Kansas City (-110)

In the only game today Francisco Liriano is matched up against Zack Greinke. Liriano is looking like his 2006 self and as been lights out his last 2 starts, but he's walking a little more batters for me to think he'll keep it up. Greinke looks to be finally getting into a groove and is coming off his best start of the year. I like his indicators and I like him to keep up the dominance. This should be a really good game to watch if you're a fan of pitching, I just think the walks will start to catch up to Liriano. When Greinke is on there might not be anyone better. He has the abilty to throw a complete game with around 10 strikeouts in under 100 pitches.

Bets

$22 KC -110

Two Games on Sunday

Portfolio: $803 (-12.8% return)
S&P 500: $1103 (19.8% return)

Today's Games

Tampa Bay (-160) @ Cleveland (+140)
San Francisco (-150) @ Arizona (+130)

In the first game Wade Davis is matched up against Justin Masterson. Davis has been rock solid as of late going 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA in his last 2 starts. He has showed great control, but is getting a little lucky on his hit rate and he is also not striking out too many. I don't think he'll continue to pitch this good. Masterson has had a bad year, but he has had flashes of turning the corner. If he keeps the ball in the strike zone he is really hard to hit. The Indians are playing really well right now and the team is just out there having fun. I can not say the same about the Rays regarding the fun part. I think the overall team confidence will help Masterson today and I like the Indians as the dog.

In the second game Giants ace Tim Lincecum is matched up against rookie Barry Enright. Lincecum really struggled in his last start, but I do not see that continuing. His indicators are all down a little this year, but he is still one of the top pitchers. He'll eventually work through it. The Diamondbacks could not have asked for more from Enright, who they called up from Double A last month, as he has gone 2-2 with a 2.66 ERA. His indicators were really solid in Double A and he has carried those over to the majors, but with him being 24 years old straight out of Double A I would expect him to hit a rough patch soon. And what better time than against a hot Giants team with a two time CY Young winner on the mound? I like the Giants in a max bet.

Bets

$10 CLE +140
$30 SF -150

Rangers Lose In Extra Innings Saturday

Cliff Lee threw another complete game while allowing 2 runs, but the Rangers offense could not score for him. Down $30.

Portfolio: $803 (-12.8% return)
S&P 500: $1070 (16.2% return)

Today's Games

None

One Game Today

Portfolio: $833 (-9.6% return)
S&P 500: $1065 (15.6% return)

Today's Games

Texas (-150) @ Boston (+140)

In the only game today newly acquired Cliff Lee is matched up against the struggling John Lackey. By staying in the American League, Cliff Lee has a chance for his second CY Young award. His indicators are career bests so it looks like he will continue his dominance and lead the Rangers to the postseason. He is exactly what the heavy hitting Rangers needed. John Lackey is looking like a bad acquisition for the Red Sox, and that has been rare the last few years. I don't know if he's hurt, feeling too much pressure, or just losing his stuff. Maybe it's a combination, but he is having his worst season as a pro. His indicators are horrible. His strikeouts per nine are down 1.5 from his career average, his walks per nine are up 1, and his hits per nine are up 1.5. That puts his indicators this year at fringe major league starter. Add that to the fact that Boston is missing serious offensive production and the Rangers at -150 look like a great pick. Max bet (5%) on Texas with a CY Young contender facing a makeshift lineup with a struggling starter.

Bets

$30 TEX -150

2 Wins Wednesday, Up $60

The Giants steamrolled the Brewers and Johnson was dominant again. Maybe this will be the start of my winning this year. And by the way, being from Cleveland, I HATE LEBRON. What a coward move last night. I don't think he'll ever win any championships because of what he's turned into. I've followed him ever since high school and he's changed a lot, for the worse.

Portfolio: $833 (-9.6% return)
S&P 500: $1070 (16.2% return)

Today's Games

None

Two Games Wednesday

Portfolio: $773 (-16.1% return)
S&P 500: $1049 (13.9% return)

Today's Games

San Francisco (-130) @ Milwaukee (+120)
Florida (-120) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (+110)

In the first game back to back NL CY Young winner Tim Lincecum is matched up against erratic Chris Narveson. Lincecum has struggled more than usual this year but his ERA is still 3.28 and he still has solid indicators. His control is was is hurting him as he's walking 1 more batter per nine than last year. He was not too impressive in his last outing but I think he'll start to turn it around soon. Narveson looks like he is just an average pitcher at best and is prone to giving up big innings. With this big of a pitching mismatch and the Giants having the better team I am scratching my head why the line is this low. Max bet on Giants -130.

In the second game CY Young front runner runner Josh Johnson is matched up against the the solid Hiroki Kuroda. Johnson is having a season of a lifetime since he has not given up more than 2 earned runs since May 8th. That is 10 starts! His indicators are rock solid and the best of his career and I expect him to throw well again tonight. Kuroda is a decent pitcher who won't overpower anyone so he is prone to letting up lots of runs from time to time. He was roughed up in his last 2 starts and his control hasn't been there this year. I don't expect him to get rocked again tonight, I just don't expect him to out duel Johnson. Max bet on Florida.

Bets

$39 SF -130
$36 FLA -120

Mariners Win, Up $15

Cliff Lee pitched his 3rd straight complete game and the Mariners scored a few runs for him to give me one of my first winning days in a while. I will be on vacation the next week so don't look for any new posts until after Thursday next week. With the way the stock market is looking I might gain some ground on the S&P 500 by staying put.

Portfolio: $773 (-16.1% return)
S&P 500: $1031 (11.9% return)

Today's Games

None

1-2, Down $12 from Sunday

And the losing continues.

Portfolio: $758 (-17.7% return)
S&P 500: $1039 (12.8% return)

Today’s Games

Seattle (+150) @ NY Yankees (-160)

In my only game Cliff Lee is matched up against Phil Hughes. Lee has been spectacular this year with a 2.39 ERA and 4 complete games, but his record is only 6-3. This is just another example of how wins and losses are a fluke stat. Lee’s strikeout rate is the second highest of his career and almost a full batter per nine higher than the last 2 years, which were his best. All of his indicators are actually a little better than his 2008 CY Young year. He has only walked 4 batters in 86 2/3 innings. He is coming off back to back complete games and all signs are pointing in the right direction for him to continue. Hughes has good stuff and solid indicators. He got off to a great start and then stumbled a little. He is coming off a skipped start due to workload concerns, and I’m not sure how he’ll react. I know the Mariners offense is horrible, but I’m not sure what the Yankees will get out of Hughes in this start. I’ll take a leading CY Young candidate at +150 odds any day.

Bets

$10 SEA +150

Can't Get Much Worse

I am just stuck in a bad streak, but it won't last.

Portfolio: $770 (-16.4% return)
S&P 500: $1078 (17% return)

Today's Games

San Diego (-100) @ Florida (-110)
Minnesota (-100) @ NY Mets (-110)
Boston (+110) @ San Francisco (-120)

In the first game Mat Latos is matched up against Anibal Sanchez. Latos has been a top pitcher in the National League this year and his strikeout, walk, and hit rate all look like the real deal. His hit rate may be a little low, but even if that corrects he is still top notch. There is no signs of him slowing down. Sanchez is having a decent year at 7-4 with a 3.30 ERA, but his indicators show he's just an average pitcher. His ERA should probably be more towards 4 instead of 3. I like the Padres at even money with their young stub on the mound.

In the second game Scott Baker is matched up against Jonathon Niese. Baker has a very good strikeout to walk ratio, but he gives up a lot of fly balls so his hit rate is up plus he gives up a decent amount of extra base hits including home runs. If he can learn to get some ground balls he will become a good pitcher pretty fast. Niese is a youngster that has some potential. His indicators look pretty average, and the fact that he's young means he will be inconsistent. He was just rocked his last time out, so his confidence might be a little shot. I like Baker to throw a quality game versus a National League lineup.

In the third game Jon Lester is matched up against Tim Lincecum in what should be a great game. Both pitchers are top notch and both teams and playing well. Other than Lincecum having slightly better stuff these pitchers are very similar. Lincecum is really tough to beat at home and that is the only reason while I'll lean with the Giants in this one.

Bets

$10 SD -100
$10 MIN -100
$12 SF -120

Two Games Thursday

Portfolio: $794 (-13.8 % return)
S&P 500: $1092 (18.6% return)

Today's Games (6/24)

Cleveland (+140) @ Philadelphia (-160)
St. Louis (-140) @ Toronto (+120)

In the first game a rejuvenated Fausto Carmona is matched up against a struggling Joe Blanton. Carmona looks like the 2007 version that was in the CY Young talks and helped lead the Tribe to the ALCS. He is basically just throwing the ball over the plate and letting his power sinker work. He has one of the best sinkers in the game, and he has only walked 1 batter in his last 15 innings. Blanton has been serving meatballs this year and his ERA over his last 3 starts is 10.20. He was never a strikeout pitcher, but his strikeouts are down a decent amount from last year. He is not walking more than usual, it just looks like he is throwing the ball right down the middle of the plate. I will go with the momentum in this game and take the Tribe.

In the second game Adam Wainwright is matched up against Brandon Morrow. Wainwright is one of the best pitchers in the National League and also one of the most underrated. His indicators are as strong as ever and he has been cruising this whole season. Morrow has a lot of potential and can rack up strikeouts, but he has trouble finding the strike zone. This leads to too many base runners and he is not good enough to overcome that. A team like the Cardinals should be patient and drive up his pitch count, so don't see him going deep into the game. I think the Cardinals at -140 are a good value.

Bets

$10 CLE +140
$14 STL -140

Win One, Lose One - Down $3

Josh Johnson continued his dominance and the Cleveland bullpen managed to blow another game. I just can't seem to get a streak going this year, but it should come.

Portfolio: $794 (-13.8% return)
S&P 500: $1118 (21.4% return)

Today's Games

None

Two Games Sunday

Portfolio: $797 (-13.5% return)
S&P 500: $1118 (21.4% return)

Today's Games

Tampa Bay (+110) @ Florida (-120)
Cleveland (-130) @ Pittsburgh (+120)

In the first game David Price is matched up against Josh Johnson. Price is having a really good season with a 10-2 record and a 2.31 ERA, but he is struggling with his control lately. He is allowing way too many base runners and that will eventually come back to bite him. He has walked 8 batters in his last 11 innings but has only given up 3 runs. That is not going to last. Josh Johnson is having the best season of anyone not named Jimenez, and he doesn't look like he's slowing down anytime soon. I know Hanley might not play, but the Marlins can still hit and with this game being played in the National League I think that gives an advantage to Florida.

In the second game Justin Masterson is matched up against the rookie Brad Lincoln. Masterson seems to be putting things together lately even though his overall numbers do not show that. He throws one of the hardest sinkers in the game and can get some strikeouts when he's on. His problem is walks, but he has only walked 4 batters in his last 16 innings so that tells me he is locked in. If he can ever learn to throw strikes consistently he can be a top of the rotation starter. Brad Lincoln is making his third career start and things have not gone well for him. he allowed 5 runs in 6 innings in both starts, and he is not striking anyone out. I think Masterson will throw a pretty good game today and I think the Indians can score a decent amount of runs.

Bets

$12 FLA -120
$13 CLE -130

Wow That Was Ugly

0-2 and down $30. Liriano pitched well except for the first inning, but it didn't matter since Ubaldo continued his dominance. And in the other game both pitchers were sloppy, but Haren was a little worse that Lackey. This hasn't been a good season for me so far.

Portfolio: $797 (-13.5% return)
S&P 500: $1116 (21.2% return)

Today's Games

None

2 Games Today

Portfolio: $827 (-10.2% return)
S&P 500: $1109 (20.4% return)

Today's Games

Colorado (-120) @ Minnesota (+100)
Arizona (+130) @ Boston (-150)

In the first game Ubaldo Jimenez is matched up against Francisco Liriano in what should be a great game. Jimenez has been the best pitcher in baseball so far and Liriano has really stepped it up as of late and looks like his 2006 self. Jimenez hasn't been great lately though. He is walking way too many. Liriano has been on fire lately and is probably pitching better than anyone in baseball. I like the Twins getting even money.

In the second game Dan Haren is matched up against John Lackey. Haren has probably suffered through the worst luck out of any pitcher this year. His indicators are amazing, so he should start to heat up. Lackey looks like he has lost some stuff. His K's are down considerably and his walks are up. Since his K's are down his hits are up and that is not surprising. Usually those two stats work that way. He has gotten his walks under control lately, but that still does not impress me. I like Haren to pitch strong as the underdog and I just hope the bullpen doesn't blow it.

Bets

$20 MIN +100
$10 ARI +130

No Games This Week

I will not be posting any games until next week.

Win One, Lose Two, Down $9

My portfolio is heading the wrong way lately due to some tough luck. Hamels gave up 3 runs in the 1st, then there was a rain delay and he never came back out while Hudson continued to pitch. Talk about bad luck and a big mismatch. Haren threw his best game of the year, but his offense could not support him as Ely threw well also.

Portfolio: $827 (-10.2% return)
S&P 500: $1071 (16.3% return)

Today's Games

None

Verlander Out Pitches Cahill But Loses, Down $34

Justin Verlander pitched pretty good as he allowed 7 baserunners (6 hits and 1 walk) over 7 innings while striking out 8, but he allowed 3 runs. Cahill on the other hand allowed 9 baserunners (5 hits and 4 walks) in 6 1/3 innings while striking out 3, but he somehow only gave up 1 run. Verlander's start would produce a win 8 out of 10 times going against Cahill's, but yesterday was not was not one of those 8 days. The game was delayed for a few hours due to rain and that may have had some impact. I would have to say this is my toughest loss so far this year since I was pretty confident in this one and the pitchers performed according to plan.

Portfolio: $836 (-9.2% return)
S&P 500: $1089 (18.2% return)

Today's Games (6/1)

Philadelphia (+120) @ Atlanta (-140)
Cincinnati (+110) @ St. Louis (-130)
Arizona (+110) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-130)

In the first game Cole Hamels is matched up against Tim Hudson. Hamels is off to a decent start and his strikeouts are up, but so are his walks. He has gotten his walks under control the last few starts and they are right on line with his solid career average of 2.34 BB/9, and that has resulted in a 2-1 record with a 2.25 ERA over his last 3 starts. Hudson is off to a pretty solid start, but his indicators show he may be in for some trouble. His strikeout rate of 3.78 is way below his career average of 6.05 and his walk rate of 3.50 is higher than his career average of 2.78. The reason he has been pitching well is a depressed hit rate. It's currently at 6.72 compared to his career average of 8.49. Once those hits start piling up things will not be good. I know both teams are heading in opposite directions right now, but I'll take Hamels as an underdog in this matchup anyday.

In the second game Johnny Cueto is matched up against P.J. Walters. Cueto is off to a fine start and his indicators, especially lately, are looking pretty good. Walters is making his 3rd career start and really has not had an impressive last couple of years in the minors. In his last 2 seasons in AAA his ERA was 4.87 and 4.54. I don't think I have to over think this one. I'll take the underdog with the hot pitcher over the average minor league pitcher. The only reason the Reds are underdogs is because they seem to have a mental block against the Cardinals, but I think this is the year where they overcome that and I think I can start with this game.

In the third game Dan Haren is matched up against John Ely. Haren has probably been the biggest tough luck starter (Greinke is right up there) in the game. His indicators are off the charts, but his hit rate is also off the charts and he has allowed a high percentage of home runs. I do not see his hit rate and home run rate staying at this pace. With average or even a little luck he should be in the CY Young race. Ely is off to a great start and has really impressed a lot of people. He has not walked too many batter and gets his fair share of strikeouts. His minor league numbers show he can command the zone, but not as good as he has shown so far. I expect him to start handing out some free passes and things to get a little bumpy. In this game I see two pitchers that the law of averages will effect. I like Haren as the underdog.

Bets

$10 PHI +120
$10 CIN +110
$10 ARI +110

One Game Today

Portfolio: $870 (-5.5% return)
S&P 500: $1089 (18.2% return)

Today's Game

Oakland (+150) @ Detroit (-170)

In the only game today the youngster Trevor Cahill is matched up against Tigers ace Justin Verlander. Cahill is having a decent season so far with a 3.31 ERA, but I do not believe that will hold up. He is a ground ball pitcher who's strikeout rate is fairly below the major league average. He will not walk too many and he's better than the average there, but the reason he's off to a good start is his low hit rate. His hit rate of 7.39 per 9 is in line with Johan Santana's career rate, so I do not see that holding up since his stuff is no where near Santana's. Cahill has also struggled away from home with a 4.56 ERA vs. a home ERA of 0.77. Verlander has had an up and down season, but is still 5-3 with a 3.74 ERA. He got off to a rough start, then settled down but was roughed up in his last start. His strikeouts are walks are worse than last year and he has been helped out by a generous hit rate, but even with that he is still a pretty good pitcher. He has been strong at home this year and threw a complete game allowing only 1 run against the A's two weeks ago. At -170, this line looks a little low for a pitching mismatch this big. I will bet as much as I can without going over my max of 5%.

Bets

$34 DET -170

Royals Lose 1-0, Down $10

Greinke cannot catch a break. He is now 1-6 with a 3.39 ERA. This is an extreme example of how wins are more of a luck stat, especially in today's game with relievers factoring in almost every game.

Portfolio: $870 (-5.5% return)
S&P 500: $1089 (18.2% return)

Today's Games

None

Two Wins - Up $20

Portfolio: $880 (-4.5% return)
S&P 500: $1089 (18.2% return)

Today's Games

Kansas City (+120) @ Boston (-140)

In the only game today Zack Greinke is matched up against Clay Buchholz. Greinke has been the victim of some bad luck this year, but his indicators are still pretty strong. He was rocked for the first time in his last start, but I see that as a fluke. Buchholz is off to a solid start, but by looking at his indicators it looks like he will regress some. I do not see him holding his 3.07 ERA. I like the Royals as the dog in this one.

Bets

$10 KC +120

Two Games Friday

Portfolio: $860 (-6.7% return)
S&P 500: $1103 (19.8% return)

Today's Games (5/28)

St. Louis (-140) @ Chicago Cubs (+120)
Seattle (-120) @ Los Angeles Angels (+100)

In the first game Chris Carpenter is matched up against Randy Wells. Carpenter is a top 5 starter in the National League and his indicators look pretty strong this year as his strikeout rate is at a career high. He has given up 9 long balls this year after only giving up 7 all of last year, but I actually think that number last year was a fluke. He should end up with around 20 for the season, so I don't look too much into that number. Wells is a strike thrower who is turning into a solid young starter, but he won't fan a ton of hitters. Wells is coming off what may be his best start of the season while Carpenter is coming off a poor start by his standards. I feel the line should favor the Cardinals more with Carpenter pitching.

In the second game Cliff Lee is matched up against Scott Kazmir. Lee is on top of his game again this year as his control is pinpoint. He has walked only 1 batter in 36 2/3 innings this year. His super low walk rate is the key to him being one of the top pitchers in the league. He is also striking out about a batter an inning more this year. He was roughed up pretty good in his last start, but that happens from time to time with him because he doesn't not blow batters away and keeps the ball in the zone. He usually bounces back OK from those types of outings though. Kazmir has struggled all year and there are not too many signs of him turning it around. He may be hiding an injury as his strikeout rate is by far the lowest in his career and he is walking more batters than any time in the last 4 years. I know the Mariners have one of the worst offenses in the game, but they have been waking up lately and I don't think they'll need to score too many runs with Lee on the mound. I believe the line is so low for this much of a pitching mismatch because of how poorly the Mariners have been playing.

Bets

$14 STL -140
$12 SEA -120

Atlanta Wins, Up $10

Portfolio: $860 (-6.7% return)
S&P 500: $1068 (16% return)

Today's Games

None

Down $5 From Sunday

Portfolio: $850 (-8.4% return)
S&P 500: $1074 (16.7% return)

Today's Games (5/26)

Atlanta (-140) @ Florida (+120)

In the only game today Tommy Hanson is matched up against Nate Robertson. Hanson got off to a solid start, but was rocked for 8 runs in 1 2/3 innings in his last start. His indicators this season are top notch, so I'm not too worried about his last start. Even two starts ago he gave up 5 runs in 7 innings, but he did strikeout 10. It just looks like he's been the victim of bad luck the last couple of starts, and that means it's a great time to bet on him. He's going up against the soft tossing lefty, Nate Robertson, who is a below average pitcher who will give up his fair share of runs. At -140, I'll take Hanson over Robertson any day.

Bet

$14 ATL -140

Astros Lose - Down $10

Portfolio: $855 (-7.2% return)
S&P 500: $1088 (18.1% return)

Today's Games

Florida (-140) @ Chicago White Sox (+120)
Colorado (+130) @ Kansas City (-150)

In the first game Josh Johnson is matched up against Freddy Garcia. Johnson is off to a great start and his indicators (K/9, BB/9, H/9) are as strong as ever. I do not see him slowing down much and I expect him to be in the CY Young talks all summer long. The veteran Garcia is an average pitcher at best. I like the Marlins at -140 and I think they should be favored by more, but since this game is in the American League the Sox have the DH advantage.

In the second game Aaron Cook is matched up against Zack Greinke. Cook is an average major league pitcher that always keeps his team in the game. He gets a lot of ground balls and does not strike out many. He has been walking more batters than usual this year, and that's not a good sign since he has very little margin for error. Greinke is having another CY Young caliber season, but is off to a 1-4 start due to some bad luck. His indicators are strong and I expect him to start picking up some wins. At -150, I think the Royals with Greinke on the hill are a pretty good play.

Bets

$14 FLA -140
$15 KC -150

One Game Tonight

Portfolio: $865 (-6.1% return)
S&P 500: $1088 (18.1% return)

Today's Game

Tampa Bay (-160) @ Houston (+150)

In today's only game Jeff Niemann is matched up against Wandy Rodriguez. Niemann has gotten off to a great start at 3-0 with a 2.54 ERA, but he's definitely pitching over his head. His hit rate is roughly 2 hits per nine lower than last year and while his ground ball to fly ball ratio is up a little, it should not effect his hit rate that much. Over his last 3 starts his hit rate has regressed and I expect to see a bump in his ERA soon. Rodriguez has gotten off to a rocky start this year and it's mainly due to a decreased strikeout rate and an increased hit rate. I do not really get the strikeout rate, but I would expect him to get that back pretty soon. This year he's at 5.28 K's per nine, and the last 2 years he's been around 8.50. His hit rate is about 2 hits per nine higher than it has been the last few years, and with a pretty good increase in his ground ball to fly ball ratio that does not make much sense. I expect him to start picking up his game soon. With this game being played in the National League I think the Astros at +150 are a solid play.

Bets

$10 HOU +150

Win One, Lose One – Up $6

I'll take the $6. Pettitte started his regression and Lester found the strike zone while Liriano was roughed up.

Portfolio: $865 (-6.1% return)
S&P 500: $1072 (16.4% return)

Today's Games

None

First Games of the Year

Portfolio: $859 (-6.7% return)
S&P 500: $1115 (21.1% return)

Today's Games

Tampa Bay (+130) @ New York Yankees (-150)
Minnesota (+120) @ Boston (-140)

In the first game James Shields is matched up against Andy Pettitte. Both pitchers are off to fast starts, but it looks like only Shields will be able to keep it up. Shields strikeout rate is up and his walk and hit rates are normal. His 9.83 K/9 rate is up significantly from 6.84 last year and his career average of 7.32. Pettitte on the other hand has a strikeout rate below his average, walk rate above, and hit rate below. That means his 1.79 ERA is due for a big correction. With Tampa being the dog, I think they are a good play.

In the second game Francisco Liriano is matched up against Jon Lester. Liriano is off to a solid start and has the indicators to back it up. His strikeout rate isn't what it was 3 years ago, but it's still pretty good, and his walk rate is at about the same level. He looks like he is fully recovered from his surgery. Lester has had an up and down season so far, and his walk rate is the main culprit. His walk rate is up almost 50% from the last two years, and that can lead to inconsistency. With two solid front line starters I'll take the one with the better control, especially with him being the dog.

Bets

$20 TB +130
$20 MIN +120

I Plan To Start Next Week

I plan on picking a few games here and there starting sometime next week.

Baseball Has Started

I just wanted to let the few of you who follow know that I will probably not be posting as frequently this year. And my first post probably won't be until a couple weeks so I can see trends and spot variances. I am getting into stock trading and that will take a little time away from this. I have learned to be a little more patient through stock trading and I plan to take that approach in my baseball picks this year, so that's the reason for fewer posts. I almost felt at times last year that I needed to find at least one game a day, but that's not the best way to build equity. I also learned to focus on a small section of the market so I can get to know them really well and I plan on doing that for baseball too, so don't be surprised if I am constantly picking teams within a division. I currently have a handful of followers, and hopefully that will grow this year. If it does not or dwindles down, then I'm not sure how much longer I will keep it up. Check back in a week or so.

Portfolio: $859 (-6.7% return)
S&P 500: $1186 (28.8% return)

Forgot To Update Yesterday

Sorry that I forgot to update yesterday. By the time I remembered the second game was already starting. I would have basically broke even as I liked both underdogs yesterday. The Super Bowl will be good and right now I am leaning with the Colts -5. The Saints got lucky yesterday as they recovered 3 fumbles, and that Favre decided to throw across the field instead of run. But before that play there was no excuse for them to have 12 guys in the huddle, and before that it seemed like Childress was fine with settling for a 50 yard field goal to win the game. I would probably lay most of the blame on Childress. Horrible end of game management. The Saints have been getting a lot of turnovers this year, and that is kind of a fluke stat. The Rams were like that in 1999 when they won the Super Bowl. The whole season I have waiting for the Saints to stop getting fluke turnovers, but it has not happened so maybe it is really their year. But I have to think the Colts will protect the ball. And I can almost guarantee that next year the Saints will not force as many turnovers as they have this year. After the Super Bowl, I probably won't have any bets until baseball season.

Portfolio: $859 (-6.7% return)
S&P 500: $1092 (18.6% return)

Today's Games

None

Wow, Chargers Lose to Jets! Down Another $10

Looks like I can really pick'em this playoffs. Usually I do well in the playoffs, but not this year. I really thought the Chargers would win the Super Bowl, but now I think it's up in the air. The games next week should be good. Looks like I have dug myself a deep hole in trying to catch the S&P 500. The S&P 500 hasn't really moved much in the last couple months, so at least it's not that far out of reach.

Portfolio: $859 (-6.7% return)
S&P 500: $1136 (23.3% return)

Today's Games

None

Warner Gets Roughed Up, Cardinals Lose - Down $10

The Saints came out firing and did not let up. It was almost as if there was no defense out there for the Cardinals.

Portfolio: $869 (-5.6% return)

S&P 500: $1136 (23.3% return)

Today's Games

NY Jets @ San Diego (-9)

I've been wrong most of this NFL season so I'm not sure if my reasons even matter, but I think the Chargers will dominate this game against Jets. I can't wait for baseball season.

Bets

$11 SD -9

NFL Playoffs

Portfolio: $880 (-4.5% return)

S&P 500: $1136 (23.3% return)

Today's Games

Arizona @ New Orleans (-7)

A hot Kurt Warner in a dome vs. a team that seems to have lost most of it's momentum? I'll take the 7 points here. I think the Saints will probably win, but I think it'll be a struggle. It might take a quarter or two for them to get in a rhythm. The Cardinals on the other hand are as hot as you can be on offense, but their defense looks like it has a lot of holes. This should be a good game. I really don't know what to think about the Ravens/Colts game, but I think the Colts will win.

Bets

$11 ARI +7

NFL Playoffs

So I did like the Cowboys last night but I forgot to update my blog. I think the Cowboys might be the team to beat in the NFC with the way their defense is playing. I'm interested to see what the line will be in their game next week against the Vikings. I do not like any games today, although I was thinking about taking the Patriots -4, but both teams have been so up and down this season I cannot get a read. In the other game between the Packers and Cardinals I have no clue what to expect, but it should be a good game to watch.

Portfolio: $880 (-4.5% return)

S&P 500: $1145 (24.3% return)

Today's Games

None

Iowa Dominates, Down $20

I couldn't be more off on my prediction of that game last night. Georgia Tech could not do anything on offense, and Iowa looked really good all around. I can't seem to break above the $921 mark, but hopefully I can do it this weekend with the NFL playoffs.

Porfolio: $880 (-4.5% return)
S&P 500: $1137 (23.5% return)

Today's Games

None

Boise Wins, Up $10

That was a pretty good defensive battle last night. I've always thought Boise was a fun team to watch. They execute so well.

Portfolio: $900 (-2.3% return)
S&P 500: $1133 (23% return)

Today’s Games

Iowa @ Georgia Tech (-5)

The Yellow Jackets have a very unique style with their option run attack and Iowa has not faced this style all year. Generally when teams face a unique style for the first time they struggle. Even a month of practice will not prepare the Hawkeyes for this attack. Georgia Tech also has the most plays of over 50 yards of anyone in college football. They don’t pass that much, but when they do they strike big as they have one of the best receivers in the country. This game will be a blowout in favor of the Yellow Jackets.

Bets

$22 GT -5

3-2, Down $14

I won the wrong games. I don’t know why I didn’t bet all the same. Oh well, I think I will fare decent in the playoffs. I do like the Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl tonight in my first college football game of the year. I also like Georgia Tech in Tuesdays Orange Bowl.

Portfolio: $890 (-3.4% return)
S&P 500: $1115 (21.1% return)

Today’s Games

Boise St. @ TCU (-8)

The Broncos are probably the most fundamentally sound college football team and they are not afraid of the big stage. I think this will be a good game and eight points is a lot.

Bets

$11 Boise St. +8

NFL Today

This is the toughest week to bet in the NFL. The first two weeks are tough, but this is really tough. But I do like a couple of games today. I need to get past the break even point of $921 today, and I usually do well in the playoffs so hopefully this is the start of a little run.

Portfolio: $904 (-1.8% return)

S&P 500: $1115 (21.1% return)

Today's Games

Indianapolis @ Buffalo (-8)

Jacksonville @ Cleveland (-2)

Washington @ San Diego (-3.5)

Tennessee @ Seattle (+6)

Cincinnati @ NY Jets (-10)

I like the favorite in all the games above. The Colts will be playing like this is a preseason game plus the weather will be cold and snowy. The Colts are not a cold weather running team, so I expect them to lose big. The Jaguars are basically out of the playoffs and the Browns have been one of the hotter teams in the NFL lately. The weather will be about the same as in Buffalo and I just don't think the Jaguars will be up for this game. The Redskins are a hopeless team playing all the way on the west coast. I don't care if the Chargers play their backups, they should still win easily. Chris Johnson is trying to get to 2000 yards rushing so the Titans will have something to play for. The Bengals will be playing like it's a preseason game and the Jets need to win. This game will be lopsided.

Bets

$11 BUF -8

$11 CLE -2

$22 SD -3.5

$22 TEN -6

$11 NYJ -10