Off Week, 1-2 Down $12

I thought I would at least go 2-2 yesterday but the Texans choked and the Steelers played way better than I thought with a young quarterback making his first start. The game tonight should be a good one, and if you only watched ESPN the last week you would have thought this was the only game on the schedule for Week 12. I'm staying away from this game because I'm not sold on the Saints defense, so I expect this to be a shootout with the team that plays best in the fourth quarter to win. The Saints have been getting interceptions this year which is more of a luck stat so I do not see them keeping it up. The Patriots have one of their weakest defenses in years, but they are playing better every week.

Portfolio: $952 (3.4% return)
S&P 500: $1091 (18.5 % return)

Today's Games

None

NFL Today

These next few weeks are best weeks in the NFL as many teams will see what they are made of. This is also when most gamblers lose a lot of money.

Portfolio: $964 (4.7% return)

S&P 500: $1091 (18.5% return)

Today's Games

Indianapolis @ Houston (+3.5)

Miami @ Buffalo (+3.5)

Arizona @ Tennessee (-3)

Pittsburgh @ Baltimore (-7.5)

The Colts have been walking the tightrope recently and I look for them to fall off this week. They will be without Dwight Freeney today and that will let Schaub have the time to pick apart a soft secondary. The Colts have a good defense and generally do not blitz because Freeney and Mathis get such good pressure on the QB. Their defense is based around the front four getting pressure. The absence of Freeney will have an effect on the whole line. The Texans are coming off the hard fought loss and should be eager to get back on the field and pick up a win to stay in the playoff race. I'll take the points.

Miami is without their best player, Ronnie Brown, but Ricky Williams stepped it up against the Panthers last Thursday. I do not see him doing that again. The Bills are a team that doesn't quit, and it looks like Fitzpatrick is gaining some confidence along with the team. I like the Bills with the points at home.

It looks like Kurt Warner will play today and that is huge for the Cardinals, but they happen to be facing one of the hottest teams at home. Vince Young seems to do whatever it takes to win and Chris Johnson is maybe the biggest home run threat in the game. The Titans defense has stepped it up a notch, and they will be tough to beat at home. The Cardinals looked to have taken the step as a good team with a solid defense and wins on the road this year, I just think the Titans have too much going for them right now.

The Steelers are in trouble as Troy Polumalu is out again and so is Ben Roethlisberger. They are starting rookie Dennis Dixon at QB and we all know what the Ravens defense does to rookie QB's. I like the Ravens big as I do not see the Steelers scoring too many points.

Bets

$11 HOU +3.5

$11 BUF +3.5

$11 TEN -3

$11 BAL -7.5

Titans Win, Up $10

That was a pretty good game last night. Vince Young looks like he did his rookie season, except better. And it looks like the Texans missed Owen Daniels. I'm slowly catching up to the S&P 500.

Portfolio: $964 (4.7% return)
S&P 500: $1106 (20% return)

Today's Games

None

1-0, Up $10

It was an entertaining day in the NFL yesterday, and I ended up gaining $10. The Ravens just could not get the ball in the end zone and Flacco’s pick at the end of the game lost it. I’ll take a push on that game, but I think I should have won. The Chargers did just as I said and dominated the Broncos. I like when bad teams get off to good starts because their lines are artificially inflated for a few weeks like you have seen with the Broncos. I look for their lines to be normal now. And vice versa with the Chargers. They got off to slow start and their lines were artificially low for a few weeks, but from now on they should be normal.

Portfolio: $954 (3.6% return)
S&P 500: $1091 (18.5% return)

Today’s Games

Tennessee @ Houston (-4)

This should be a good Monday Night Football game. The Titans are riding a three game winning streak and the Texans are off to their best start in franchise history. The Titans made the switch to Vince Young and it has paid off. They are back to their ball controlling ways, but their defense has not been good although it has been playing better lately. Chris Johnson has been a beast lately and I do not see him slowing down. The Texans high powered offense will be hurt with Owen Daniels out for the year as he was Schaub’s safety blanket. The running back position is also up in the air with Slaton’s ineffectiveness and fumbling problems. I like the fact that Vince Young is playing in Texas and the Titans are playing with the confidence they showed last year. The Texans will turn the ball over at least one time and if the Titans can win the turnover battle I see them winning this game, so I’ll take the points.

Bets

$11 TEN +4

NFL Today

Portfolio: $944 (2.5% return)

S&P 500: $1091 (18.5% return)

Today's Games

Indianapolis @ Baltimore (+2)

San Diego @ Denver (+6)

The Colts/Ravens game should be a good one. The Colts look the keep their perfect record and the Ravens need a win to keep pace in the AFC playoff race. The Colts are coming off two hard fought games in a row, especially last week against the Patriots. The Ravens are coming off an easy win against the Browns are should be fully prepared for the Colts. The Colts are a little banged up and after two emotional games I look for a let down this week. The Ravens should be more than prepared for the Colts and I think their physical style will be too much for the Colts this week.

San Diego is a really talented team that is playing better every week. The Broncos are the opposite and will most likely be without Kyle Orton this week. I like the Chargers in a blowout. I almost backed away from this game because the line jumped from 2.5 to 6, but the more I think about it the more I think the Chargers will win big.

Bets

$11 BAL +2

$11 SD -6

3-0, Up $40

I finally passed the break even mark of $921 and hopefully it will be permanent. I’m starting to get a feel for the NFL now. My betting strategy varies greatly from baseball to football as baseball is a numbers game and football is not. Although I had the most confidence in my San Diego bet yesterday, the Falcons/Panthers game looked like the biggest trap game and that is why I liked the Panthers. The middle of the NFL season is where I believe most people fail, so it’s smart to go against the public.

I’m not going to bet on the Monday Night game tonight between the Ravens and Browns, but I would lean with the Ravens. I’m a Browns fan and know them better than any team. Brady Quinn is the starter again and I think he’s got a long way to go to be a serviceable quarterback. Their skill position players are way below average, and our leading tackler is out for the season. The Ravens on the other hand are almost in a must win situation, but I don’t really know how Flacco will react on the big Monday Night Stage. I think the Ravens will win by 30 points as Quinn will not be able to move the ball and the Browns defense will tire, but Monday Night Football changes teams and players. I’ll stay away from this game.

Portfolio: $944 (2.5% return)
S&P 500: $1093 (18.7% return)

Today’s Games

None

NFL Today

I'm hoping to break the $921 mark for the first time in a while.

Portfolio: $904 (-1.8% return)

S&P 500: $1093 (18.7% return)

Today's Games

Jacksonville @ New York Jets (-7)

Atlanta @ Carolina (+2)

Philadelphia @ San Diego (pk)

In a battle of two average teams I think a line of 7 is pretty high. The Jaguars have solid coaching and play a conservative game. The Jets are also a conservative team so I do not expect to see a blowout. I'll take the 7 points in this close matchup.

This should be a good game even though DeAngelo Williams is most likely out. The Falcons have Roddy White and Michael Jenkins banged up, but it looks like they will play. If the Panthers do not turn the ball over like they have been in the past I like them to win the game. I'm not too sure how well the Falcons are on the road yet and Jonathan Stewart should have a solid game as the featured back.

The Eagles and Donovan McNabb always struggle when they go to the west coast. The Chargers are one of the most talented teams in the league and seem to be improving every week. I like more talented team at home.

Bets

$11 JAC +7

$11 CAR +2

$22 SD pk

Steelers Win, Up $20

I'm starting to make a comeback. I probably won't have any games until the weekend.

Porfolio: $904 (-1.8% return)
S&P 500: $1093 (18.7% return)

Today's Games

None

2-1, Up $9

Not a bad day yesterday, but I was really surprised that the Titans won. One thing about Vince Young is that he wins games. It looks like they are playing their typical ball controlling game. Hopefully this will be the start of an upward streak for me as try to catch up to the S&P 500.

Portfolio: $884 (-4 % return)
S&P 500: $1069 (16.1% return)

Today's Games

Pittsburgh @ Denver (+3)

In what looks like a great game tonight I like the Steelers to handle the Broncos pretty easily. The Steelers are a solid team that has found a stud power running back in Rashard Mendenhall to go along with a solid passing game. Polamalu is getting heathly and their defense is tough. The Broncos are really not that good even though they got off to a 6-0 start. They don't have a good running game, their passing game is average, and their defense is not as good as the media says. I don't like betting against home dogs getting little points as they are usually trap games, but I think this one is a good play.

Bet

$22 PIT -3

3 Games Today

This time of the year is slow for me betting wise. For football I'll usually only bet on NFL games, and I'm going to try to get into college basketball in the winter. So don't be surprised if my blog is only updated once or twice a week.

Portfolio: $875 (-5% return)

S&P 500: $1069 (16.1% return)

Today's Games

Houston @ Indianapolis (-8)

Tennessee @ San Francisco (-5)

San Diego @ New York Giants (-5.5)

Both teams are banged up in the Texans/Colts game, but I think the Colts injuries will have a bigger effect. They are starting 2 rookie corners against a solid receiving corps and a solid quarterback. Missing Owen Daniels will really hurt the Texans, but I look for Walter to step up. The Colts are a really good team, I just see them struggling and possibly losing their first game of the year.

The 49ers are almost in a must win game after a hot start to the season. The Titans are coming off their first win and have made the switch to Vince Young. The Titans are a running team, but the 49ers are a really good defensive team so I do not see the Titans scoring too many points. The Titans defense has been under average this year and the 49ers seem to be improving offensively every week. I like the 49ers in an easy win.

The Chargers/Giants game will be a good one, and I have a feeling the Chargers will come out on top. It think they are the more talented team and if their defense can step up they will be really good. I'll take the points here.

Bets

$11 HOU +8

$11 SF -5

$11 SD +5.5

No Action Last Night

Game 6 of the World Series is tonight, but I'm staying away from it. I'm not sure how well Pedro will pitch and I seem to think Pettitte is not a big game pitcher. I think the Phillies really need a big game out of Rollins and Victorino. The Yankees just need to get through the 7th inning with the lead as they will bring in Rivera for 2. It should be interesting.

Portfolio: $875 (-5% return)
S&P 500: $1045 (13.5% return)

Today's Games

None

No Action Last Night

The Phillies live to see another day.

Portfolio: $875 (-5% return)
S&P 500: $1043 (13.2% return)

Today's Games

None

Phillies Lose Third Straight - Down $20

The Phillies and myself continued our losing streaks last night. At least the baseball game was a good game. That was a heck of a play by Damon in the ninth. It should be a another great game tonight and I don't see the Phillies losing 4 straight, but I'm staying away from it because I have not been seeing baseball games clearly for over a month now. The Monday Night Football game also looks to be good, but I'm staying away from that too. If I had to pick I would take the Falcons and the points. My portfolio has dropped to the lowest level in it's history, so I better pick it up.

Portfolio: $875 (-5% return)
S&P 500: $1036 (12.5% return)

Today's Games

None

Phillies Lose - Down $20

Cole Hamels once again struggled and the Yankees did not look tight after A-Rod got that lucky homerun call. It should be a good game tonight. There are no NFL games that I like today. Except for Houston all of the favaorties are at home and most of the lines are high.

Portfolio: $895 (-2.8% return)
S&P 500: $1036 (12.5% return)

Today's Games

New York Yankees (-170) @ Philadelphia (+160)

In Game 4 of the World Series CC Sabathia is matched up against Joe Blanton. As you can see, the analysis for end of the season and postseason games is different than regular season games. End of the season and postseason games have was more human element involved and therefore are harder to predict. It's kind of like football. So in this game I believe CC will lay an egg and that is why I like the Phillies.

Bets

$20 PHI +160